Core Insights - In April, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of units above the designated size grew by 6.6%, with an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effectiveness, contributing to the stable growth of the consumption market [1] - Retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment for units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Automotive Sector - According to the Automotive Circulation Association, the retail volume of passenger cars in April increased by 14.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Upgraded Goods - Retail sales of upgraded goods such as gold, silver, and jewelry, as well as cosmetics for units above the designated size, increased by 25.3% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively [1]

Economic Growth and Stability - China's national economy continues to show stable growth, with multiple indicators signaling positive trends despite a complex international environment [1][7] - In April, the industrial production showed a steady recovery, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [2][3] Industrial Production and New Quality Productivity - The industrial sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by effective policy measures [2][3] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.8% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market is showing stable growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4][5] - The sales of essential and upgraded goods are performing well, with significant growth in categories such as food and sports entertainment products [4] - The "old for new" policy is driving substantial sales increases in home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8% and 19.9%, respectively [4] Investment and Trade Performance - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% in the first four months of the year [7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% in the same period, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, indicating a stable inflation environment [7][8] Economic Resilience and Future Outlook - China's economic foundation is solid, with a robust manufacturing sector and a large consumer market, providing strong resilience against various risks [8] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand and implement policies to support industrial development and innovation [3][5]

Group 1: Economic Resilience and Growth - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% from January to April, with significant contributions from equipment purchases, which rose by 18.2% [2] - The total value of goods trade in April reached 3.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The government has implemented policies to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a recovery in sales and a narrowing decline in housing prices across various cities [3][4] - In April, new residential sales prices in first and second-tier cities remained stable, while third-tier cities saw slight declines [3] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In April, foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by 10.9 billion USD, reflecting a strong interest in Chinese assets [5] - Foreign investors have shifted to net buying of domestic stocks, indicating growing confidence in China's macroeconomic outlook and capital market [5]

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively fast growth rate for 2024 [1] - The service production index increased by 6% year-on-year, with information and business services showing stable growth, outpacing the overall service sector [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year in April, driven by the effects of the old-for-new consumption policy, which contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total growth [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to the overall investment growth [2] High-tech Manufacturing and New Production Capacity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [4] - Key sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The added value of digital product manufacturing grew by 10% in April, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components experiencing accelerated growth [6] - New energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles showed remarkable production increases of 38.9% and 61.8% respectively [6] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8%, while furniture and communication equipment also saw significant growth [10] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a growing trend in e-commerce [10] Policy Impact on Consumption - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy and improvements in the consumption environment have significantly boosted the consumer market [12] - The demand for green and upgraded consumption continues to rise, contributing to the stability and recovery of the consumer market [12]

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

Economic Performance - In April, China's economy demonstrated significant resilience amid complex conditions, with major economic indicators showing stable and rapid growth [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, marking a notable performance in monthly data since last year [1] - The service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, reaching the second-highest monthly growth rate this year [1] Domestic Demand - Positive changes were observed in domestic demand, with substantial sales growth in products related to the "old for new" consumption initiative, significantly supporting retail sales [1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8% year-on-year, continuing to accelerate this year [1] - Retail sales for cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increased by 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively, all exceeding the overall retail growth rate [1] Investment Trends - The effects of "two heavy" and "two new" policies are becoming increasingly evident, with investment in equipment and tools rising by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [1] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 13.4% and 8.2% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of industrial upgrading [1] Foreign Trade - China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Private enterprises' imports and exports rose by 6.8% year-on-year, outperforming the overall foreign trade situation [2] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [2] High-Tech Manufacturing - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year in April, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 21.4% and 21.3%, respectively [2] - The added value of digital product manufacturing also achieved a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - Production of new energy products, such as electric vehicles and charging piles, rose by 38.9% and 43.1%, respectively, reflecting the deepening of green and low-carbon transformation [2] Real Estate Market - In April, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities remained generally stable, with the year-on-year decline in first, second, and third-tier cities continuing to narrow [2] - The real estate market's transactions and prices are stabilizing, moving towards a recovery phase [2] Economic Resilience Factors - China's economic resilience is attributed to a stable economic foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential [3] - The large-scale market, accelerated restructuring of the entire industrial chain, and continuous empowerment of new production factors provide systematic support for economic development [3] - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the establishment of new policy financial tools, aim to support technological innovation and expand consumption [3]

Group 1 - In April, China's national economy showed stable growth in production and demand, with a generally stable employment situation and the emergence of new growth drivers, indicating a resilient economic performance under pressure [1][2] - The industrial production saw a rapid increase, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 6.1% year-on-year in April. Notably, the equipment manufacturing sector and high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively [1] - The production of specific products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 51.5%, and 38.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - Market sales experienced stable growth, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown positive effects [1] - The retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively [1] - Fixed asset investment continued to expand, with a total of 147,024 billion yuan in investment (excluding rural households) in the first four months, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 8.0% [1] Group 3 - The total value of goods import and export reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Exports alone amounted to 22,645 billion yuan, growing by 9.3% [1] - In the first four months, the total value of goods import and export was 141,389 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1]

Economic Performance - In April, China's economy effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining stable growth and showing a positive trend, supported by a solid economic foundation and coordinated macro policies [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by the effects of the consumption upgrade policy [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% from January to April, with significant contributions from equipment investment, which rose by 18.2% [2] Investment Trends - High-tech service industry investment grew by 11.3% from January to April, with professional technical services and information services increasing by 17.6% and 40.6%, respectively [3] - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year increase of 8.8% from January to April, outpacing overall investment growth [2][3] - Infrastructure investment also showed steady growth, with a 5.8% increase year-on-year from January to April [2] Supply Side Developments - The industrial production index for large-scale industries increased by 6.1% year-on-year in April, with over 80% of the 41 major industries experiencing growth [4] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 10% in April, significantly faster than the overall industrial growth rate [4] - The production of new energy vehicles surged by 38.9% in April, indicating a strong trend towards smart and green transformation in the industry [4] Foreign Trade Dynamics - China's total goods import and export value increased by 2.4% from January to April, with exports growing by 9.3% in April [7] - The diversification of foreign trade has shown positive results, with imports and exports to ASEAN countries increasing by 9.2% year-on-year [7] - Private enterprises' import and export activities grew by 6.8% from January to April, outperforming the overall foreign trade situation [7] Overall Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience and international competitiveness, with a solid foundation and effective policies supporting its growth [8][9] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply is expected to maintain a stable and progressive economic trajectory [8]

Group 1 - In April, China's overall export growth slowed to 8.1%, with industrial export delivery value showing a nominal growth of 0.9%, down from 7.7% in March [1] - Manufacturing investment growth for January to April was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The real estate market showed signs of cooling, with some residents opting to wait, leading to declines in housing prices, sales, construction, and funding sources [1] Group 2 - The service sector demonstrated resilience against external shocks, with domestic travel during the Qingming Festival increasing by 6.3% in terms of visitor numbers and 6.7% in total spending [2] - The service production index in April grew by 6.0%, marking the second-highest monthly growth rate of the year [2] - Infrastructure investment from January to April increased by 5.8%, remaining steady compared to the first quarter, supported by easing local government debt issues and proactive fiscal policies [2] Group 3 - Despite external shocks, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [3] - A recent high-level economic meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [3] - Following the announcement, global risk aversion decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices and an increase in stock markets, with major institutions raising their growth forecasts for China's economy [3] Group 4 - Recent financial policies announced by regulatory authorities include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [4] - The government emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, aiming for enhanced economic resilience [4] - As these policies are implemented, the economic resilience of China is expected to further strengthen [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The retail sector shows strong performance, with significant growth in categories such as furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry, with respective growth rates of +26.9%, +33.5%, +7.2%, and +25.3% in April 2025 [6][10] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize as policies continue to support recovery, with a focus on urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector - In April 2025, the overall retail sales growth was +5.1%, slightly below the consensus forecast of +5.48% [1] - Online retail sales growth for the first four months of 2025 was +7.7%, outperforming the overall market [6] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods, which is expected to boost demand in the home furnishing sector [3] Real Estate Sector - The new housing starts, completion, sales area, and residential development investment for January to April 2025 showed declines of -22.3%, -16.8%, -2.1%, and -9.6% respectively [2] - The central government's policies aim to implement more proactive macroeconomic measures, particularly in the real estate sector, to stabilize the market [2] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report recommends companies like Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, anticipating steady growth driven by policy support and demand recovery [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, Morning Glory Co. is highlighted for its strong channel advantages and growth in new retail business [7] - The cosmetics sector is expected to thrive due to the "beauty economy," with recommendations for domestic brands like Runben and Pechoin [7] - Gold and silver jewelry consumption is projected to remain robust, with recommendations for companies that possess craftsmanship and luxury attributes [7]