思摩尔国际 20250821 摘要 思摩尔国际 2025 年上半年营收 9 亿元，同比增长 19.5%，欧洲市场受 益于一次性禁令下的合规产品销售，增速达 38%，而美国和中国市场收 入增速分别为 1.5%和-6.1%。 上半年利润 4.92 亿元，同比下滑 28%，主要受股权激励摊销、行政管 理费用及自有品牌营销费用增长影响；调整后净利润 7.37 亿元，同比 下滑 2.1%，剔除 OECD 双支柱国际税收影响后实际增长。 预计下半年思摩尔国际收入端维持双位数增长，利润端持平。关注 HNB 产品在日本 9 月销售情况及英美烟草在欧洲推进 Halo 上市的进展，后 者投入了史上最大营销预算。 雾化医疗领域，思摩尔国际与大型医药公司合作顺利，目标未来两三年 内通过美国 FDA 审核。美容雾化方面，兰芝上半年实现收入 3,100 万 元，预计未来两年内贡献可观利润。 传统业务触底回升，尤其欧洲市场表现超预期。HNB 业务进展顺利，有 望明年贡献 10 亿元以上利润增量。新兴业务需两三年后才能在报表中 体现。 思摩尔国际作为雾化科技龙头，在烟草行业转型发展特别是 HNB 赛道保 持乐观态度，未来业绩增长可期。 20 ...

7月份，社会消费品零售总额3008亿元，同比增长4.4%。其中，商品零售2729亿元，增长4.9%。线上消 费增势强劲，限额以上单位通过公共网络实现的零售额增长11.7%。生活品质类消费较快增长，限额以 上单位可穿戴智能设备、照相器材、家用电器和音像器材、计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、新能源汽 车等商品零售额分别增长2.2倍、1.0倍、50.2%、39.9%、29.4%和13.0%。1—7月，社会消费品零售总额 2.2万亿元，增长5.2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经杭州8月21日电浙江省统计局21日发布数据显示，7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.3%。37个工业大类行业中，22个行业增加值正增长。其中，汽车、烟草、计算机通信电子、仪器仪 表和化学原料等行业增加值分别增长17.3%、16.7%、15.8%、14.0%和7.7%，合计拉动规模以上工业增 加值增长4.0个百分点。创新动能持续增强，规模以上工业新产品产值率为41.9%，同比提高0.6个百分 点；规模以上高技术制造业、数字经济核心产业制造业、战略性新兴产业和装备制造业增加值分别增长 12.7%、11.4%、9.1%和8.8%。1—7月，规 ...

消息面上，思摩尔国际今日将举行董事会会议，以（其中包括）考虑及通过截至2025年6月30日止的六 个月中期业绩，及派发中期股息（如有）。思摩尔国际此前公布，预期2025年上半年实现收入60.13亿 元，同比增长18%；预期除税前溢利为约6.29亿至7.69亿元，同比减少5%至23%。溢利下降主要由于非 现金性质的以股份为基础的付款开支增加1.76亿人民币、分销及销售开支，以及法律服务相关费用有较 大增长。 瑞银此前指，公司初步业绩显示上半年年营收同比增长18%，该行认为是由于Vape业务复苏，出货量在 美国关税之前已预先增加。公司预计下半年纯利同比下降21至35%，主要由于主要与第四季授出购股权 和S&D相关的高支出所致。浙商证券（601878）认为，英美烟草在Glo Hilo上资源与营销投入力度较 大，除日本试销反馈较好外，在欧洲部分国家也提前做了部署，看好后续放量；此外口含烟保持高速增 长，雾化烟在非法烟监管发力下有望迎来修复，持续看好核心供应商思摩尔国际。 思摩尔国际(06969)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.29%，报21.64港元，成交额5.01亿港元。 ...

Core Points - The China Securities Index Hong Kong 100 Consumer Index (H100) reported a value of 2694.66 points, showing a monthly increase of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 4.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 17.21% [1] Group 1 - The H100 index is categorized based on the China Securities Industry Classification Standard, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] - The index is fully composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] - The industry composition of the H100 index includes 40.82% in food, 32.58% in soft drinks, 15.98% in alcohol, and 10.62% in tobacco [1] Group 2 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Adjustments to the index occur in response to changes in the parent index, special events affecting industry classification, or the delisting of sample companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic price of broadleaf pulp has recently increased, while cultural paper and white card paper remain under pressure due to supply and demand factors. However, the waste paper sector shows a strong willingness to raise prices, continuing its upward trend. In July, China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and U.S. furniture sales rose by 5.1% year-on-year. The extension of reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures between China and the U.S. for another 90 days, along with the approaching U.S. interest rate cuts and overseas promotional stocking demands, suggests a potential recovery in the export chain [17][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The domestic price of broadleaf pulp has risen slightly, while cultural paper and white card paper prices are still under pressure. The waste paper sector continues to show strong price increase intentions, maintaining an upward trend. In July, China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and U.S. furniture sales rose by 5.1% year-on-year. The extension of reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures between China and the U.S. for another 90 days, along with the approaching U.S. interest rate cuts and overseas promotional stocking demands, suggests a potential recovery in the export chain [17][25]. 2. Key Data Tracking - In July, China's furniture retail sales increased by 20.6% year-on-year, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 12.9% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [39]. - The domestic price of broadleaf pulp has increased by 109 yuan/ton compared to July, influenced by international production cuts and price increases. The waste paper sector has also seen price increases, with waste paper prices rising by 21 yuan/ton for old books and 100 yuan/ton for old yellow board paper [18][22]. - In July, the U.S. furniture and home decor store sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, maintaining a single-digit growth for 11 consecutive months. The inventory turnover ratios for U.S. furniture wholesalers and retailers indicate stable conditions, suggesting resilience in overseas demand [25][26]. 3. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Gujia Home, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in home consumption. In the paper and packaging sector, it highlights Sun Paper as a key player benefiting from new capacity releases [5][14][15].

一、市场表现 二、重要新闻 1、据巴基斯坦联合通讯社报道，8月13日穆迪评级公司将巴基斯坦的本币和外币发行人评级及高级无抵押债务评级从Caa2上调至Caa1，并将巴基斯坦 的评级展望从"正面"调整为"稳定"。 4、据巴基斯坦统计局8月15日公布数据显示，巴基斯坦短期通胀较前一周上涨0.31%，同比上涨2.21%。巴基斯坦统计局利用每周短期通胀率（SPI）来 监测全国17个城市必需品的价格变动情况。在接受调查的51种商品中，17 种价格上涨，9 种价格下降，25 种价格保持稳定。 5、巴基斯坦证券交易委员会在8月13日发布的通知称，公开募股制度发布最终修订。经修订的制度已于2025年8月6日生效。未来的首次公开募股 （IPO）交易都将依据修订后的条例执行。此次修订旨在通过促进竞争、利用技术和引入透明的价格发现机制来提高首次公开募股（IPO）效率，并允许银 行和开发金融机构担任发行顾问。 6、据巴基斯坦统计局（PBS）最新报告显示，2024-2025财年，巴基斯坦大型制造业（LSM） 行业较上一年萎缩0.74%。尽管6月该行业同比增长 4.14%，但环比下降3.67%。导致负增长的主要行业包括烟草、纺织、服装、石 ...

Macro Insights - The US July CPI shows a moderate increase, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, alleviating concerns about significant inflation rebound [2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0% [2] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, influenced by the manageable inflation pressures from tariffs [2] Fixed Income Insights - AI is becoming a central theme in the market, impacting investment, employment, and asset prices, leading to a structural divergence in stock performance [3] - The report suggests that AI could enhance labor productivity, potentially leading to a scenario where stock market performance outpaces GDP and employment growth [3] - Long-term, AI may alleviate debt pressures but could also exacerbate income and opportunity disparities [3] Energy Sector Insights - National electricity generation in July is estimated to increase by 3.2% year-on-year to 924.9 billion kWh, with coal, hydro, and renewable energy sources contributing differently [4] - The report anticipates a positive growth momentum for thermal power generation despite some pressure from hydroelectric output recovery [4] Banking Sector Insights - The introduction of a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate domestic demand, with a 1% annual subsidy rate [5] - Major banks are responding positively to the subsidy policy, indicating a favorable outlook for structural opportunities in the banking sector [5] Company-Specific Insights - Wanchen Group (300972 CH) is accelerating the acquisition of minority shareholder equity, with stable earnings in April and May, leading to an upgraded target price of 212.66 CNY and a "Buy" rating [7] - Guizhou Moutai (600519 CH) reported a 9.2% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving its annual growth target [11] - Pengding Holdings (002938 CH) is focusing on AI-related capacity investments, with a revenue increase of 24.75% year-on-year in H1 2025, leading to an upgraded target price of 69.2 CNY [12] - Desay SV (002920 CH) benefited from the smart driving trend, achieving a 25.25% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, with a positive outlook for future growth [17] - City Development Environment (000885 CH) reported a revenue increase of 11.25% year-on-year in H1 2025, indicating stable growth in waste treatment operations [21]

Group 1: Transportation Services - Pakistan's revenue from transportation services reached $878 million in the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024-2025, marking a 25.06% increase from $702 million in the same period last year [7] - Maritime service exports grew by 1.34% from $101 million to $102 million, while air transport exports increased by 25.77% from $575 million to $723 million [7] - Road transport exports saw a significant rise of 67.09%, increasing from $23 million to $38 million [7] Group 2: Fiscal Performance - The budget deficit for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 6.168 trillion PKR, which is 5.38% of GDP, the lowest in nine years [7] - Total revenue for the same fiscal year is estimated at 17.997 trillion PKR, accounting for 15.7% of GDP, while total expenditure is 24.165 trillion PKR, or 21.1% of GDP [7] - The GDP for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is estimated at 114.692 trillion PKR [7] Group 3: Tobacco Exports - Tobacco exports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached $167 million, a remarkable increase of 158.31% from $64 million in the previous fiscal year [8] - The total volume of tobacco exports also rose significantly from 18,282 tons to 43,520 tons, reflecting a growth of 140.18% [8] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Initiative - The government approved a five-year subsidy plan to promote 116,000 electric bicycles and 3,170 electric rickshaws, with an estimated cost of 100 billion PKR [8] - This initiative aims to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, reduce oil imports, and promote environmental sustainability [8] Group 5: Trade with Neighboring Countries - Exports to seven countries, including Afghanistan, China, and India, totaled $4.427 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.08%, representing 13.70% of Pakistan's total exports of $33.295 billion [10] - Imports from these countries amounted to $16.699 billion, reflecting a 30.07% increase from $13.838 billion in the previous fiscal year [10] Group 6: Agricultural Census - The 2024 agricultural census revealed that the number of farming households in Pakistan increased from 8.3 million in 2010 to 11.7 million [10] - The total cultivated area expanded from 4.26 million acres in 2010 to 5.28 million acres in 2024, with livestock numbers reaching 251 million, growing at an annual rate of 3.18% since 2006 [10] Group 7: Land Port Authority Legislation - The National Assembly passed the "2025 Pakistan Land Port Authority Bill" to facilitate the movement of goods and people at border crossings [10] - This legislation positions Pakistan as the third South Asian country to establish a land port authority, following Bangladesh and India, and aims to enhance trade and border control [10]

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国卷烟行业发展前景分析及市场需求预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年6月中国卷烟产量为1589亿支，同比增长8.7%；2025年上半年中国卷 烟累计产量为13756.5亿支，累计增长0.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) saw a stock increase of over 5%, currently trading at 21.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.42 billion HKD, driven by positive outlooks on new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, BAT reported revenue from new tobacco products at 1.651 billion GBP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1] - Adjusted gross profit for BAT reached 1.006 billion GBP, up 6.8%, with an adjusted gross margin of 59.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points [1] - Profit contribution from product categories was 179 million GBP, marking a significant increase of 39% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - BAT anticipates accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the entire year [1] - Smoore International is viewed positively as a core supplier, benefiting from BAT's substantial resource and marketing investments in GloHilo, which has received favorable feedback from trials in Japan and early deployments in several European countries [1] - The overall performance of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products is stable, supported by the launch of GloHilo, which has increased its market share by 1.5 percentage points in Sendai [1] - The global HNB industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, suggesting potential for accelerated industry expansion [1]