近一年中国烤烟出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国烟草行业市场全景调查及投资潜力研究报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国烤烟出口数量为0.8万吨，同比下降5.3%，出口金额为0.4亿美 元，同比下降1.8%。 ...

Group 1 - The Turkish government plans to implement slight tax increases on key goods and services, including fuel, by 2026 to help the central bank control inflation, aiming for a target of 16% by the end of next year [1] - Fuel tax increases will be moderated to align with the central bank's inflation target, indicating a commitment from the government to support the central bank's efforts [1][2] - The special consumption tax on gasoline and diesel is typically adjusted twice a year, with the upcoming adjustments expected to be lower than the legal thresholds, reflecting the government's attempt to mitigate price pressures [1][3] Group 2 - The Turkish Finance and Treasury Minister stated that some tax increases will be based on the target inflation rate rather than the 25.5% revaluation rate, which aligns with producer price inflation [2] - Economists predict that consumer price inflation in Turkey could reach around 30% by the end of the year, significantly above the central bank's target of 24% for 2025 [2] - The central bank is currently in a disinflation process, having recently lowered the one-week repo policy rate from 39.5% to 38% [2] Group 3 - High inflation in Turkey, approximately 31.1% year-on-year as of November 2025, is attributed to the depreciation of the lira, sticky inflation expectations, and administrative price adjustments [3] - The legacy of previous economic policies, characterized by interest rate cuts and credit expansion in a high inflation environment, has contributed to the current inflationary spiral, often referred to as "Erdoganomics" [3]

Core Insights - Yunnan Province's economy is projected to reach a historic milestone of 3.27 trillion yuan in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.7% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Economic Structure and Investment - The economic structure of Yunnan is undergoing rapid adjustment, with industrial investment becoming the main driver, increasing its share of fixed asset investment from 26.7% in 2020 to 52.1% by 2024 [1] - Private sector investment has significantly increased, with its share rising from 39.8% to 65.7% [1] Industry Development and Upgrading - The "new three" industries—green aluminum, silicon photovoltaic, and new energy batteries—are showing strong growth, contributing over 20% to the increase in industrial added value [1] - The deep processing rate of coffee has improved from 20% to 80%, with total output value increasing from less than 10 billion yuan to over 80 billion yuan [1] - In the green aluminum sector, the alloying rate has reached 51.4%, with electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 6.5 million tons and output value doubling to over 160 billion yuan [1] Strategic Focus Areas - The Yunnan Provincial Committee emphasizes the need to focus on industrial transformation and upgrading, aiming to build a modern industrial system with Yunnan's unique advantages [2] - Key areas of focus include green aluminum, silicon photovoltaic, phosphorous chemicals, and non-ferrous and rare metals, as well as highland characteristic agriculture, cultural tourism, green energy, and modern logistics [2] Action Plans for Industrial Upgrading - Yunnan will focus on major industrial projects to drive quality upgrades, particularly in green aluminum, petrochemicals, phosphorous chemicals, and rare earths [3] - The province aims to cultivate new growth points in non-tobacco and non-energy industries, targeting sectors like biomedicine, new materials, and advanced equipment manufacturing [3] - Emphasis will be placed on technology empowerment, promoting core technology breakthroughs and enhancing the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Park Development and Efficiency - Yunnan plans to implement an action plan to enhance park economies, establishing a comprehensive evaluation system focused on efficiency, environmental impact, and industrial clustering [4] - The strategy includes leveraging parks to foster leading industries and promote regional industrial complementarity and collaborative development [4]

据哥伦比亚Valora Analitik网站12月24日报道，英美烟草哥伦比亚公司表 示，政府若通过经济紧急状态法令对烟草加征新税，可能削弱合法烟草产业， 冲击地方财政收入，并进一步助长走私活动。目前，走私香烟已占全国消费量 的36%以上，在部分边境地区甚至超过90%，进一步加税可能加剧此类风险。 行业呼吁政府就相关政策开展技术性对话，以维护合法经营、地方财政和法治 环境。 （原标题：哥伦比亚烟草行业警告加征烟草税或加大走私风险） ...

企查查APP显示，近日，上海烟草集团金山烟草有限公司、上海烟草集团静安烟草有限公司成立，注册 资本均为3000万元，经营范围均包含：烟草制品零售；烟草专卖品批发；酒类经营；食品销售等。企查 查股权穿透显示，两公司均由上海烟草集团有限责任公司全资持股。 （原标题：上海烟草集团成立两家新公司，含酒类经营业务） ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，参照海外烟草行业发展经验，新型烟草发展已是大势所趋， 后续若国内HNB开启，有望支撑中烟体系进一步延续高质量发展，建议积极关注目前在加热烟草领域 已有技术&产品储备的供应链企业，后续有望充分享受全球HNB发展大势。 国金证券主要观点如下： 国际烟草巨头全面转向新型烟草，HNB已是头部烟草企业重要增长驱动力 全球范围内卷烟市场萎缩已是不可逆转的趋势，全球吸烟率从2005年的30.75%持续下降至2022年的 21.74%，卷烟市场规模自2018年的53908亿支缓慢下滑至2024年的51561亿支，CAGR为-0.74%。有鉴于 此，包括菲莫国际等在内的国际烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力，在雾化电子 烟、加热烟草和口含烟等领域加速布局。如菲莫国际计划到2030年营收的三分之二以上将来自新型烟 草，英美烟草计划在2035年新型烟草的收入占比达到50%，各烟草巨头加速从传统烟草巨头向新型烟草 的转型进程。其中HNB是新型烟草的核心品类，2024年菲莫的无烟产品（以HNB产品IQOS为主）营收 占比为39%，加热烟草已成为推动公司业绩增长的核心引擎。 参照日 ...

Market Overview - U.S. private credit market risks are emerging, with significant exposure concentrated in large banks and insurance funds rather than smaller banks[6] - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in Q3 2025, with GDP growth reaching 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%[31] Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,919 points, up 0.07%[15] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 6,909.8 points and the Nasdaq up 0.6% to 23,561.8 points[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold and silver prices reached record highs due to U.S. interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since early October, while the Chinese yuan approached the 7 yuan mark against the dollar[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in the short term following strong GDP data, with the 2-year yield at 3.53%[31] - A $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasury bonds is scheduled, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[31] Sector Insights - The healthcare sector in Latin America showed strong performance, with the medical care sector rising by 2.48%[9] - The real estate sector in China is under focus, with government efforts to stabilize the market and support reasonable financing needs for real estate companies[31]

一根根光缆在生产线上精准绞合，机械臂在空中划出流畅弧线，AI质检系统正以毫秒级速度捕捉细微瑕疵……在江苏的智能工厂里，看得见的是行云流 水般的生产场景，看不见的是奔腾在网络上的海量数据（603138）与指令。 中国移动长三角(扬州)算力中心 对于制造业规模连续多年位居全国前列的江苏而言，产业"智"变的关键，不仅在于算法与数据，更在于连接万物、支撑协同的新型网络。一张高效、可 靠、智能的网络，正成为赋能江苏制造升级的隐形动脉与核心优势。 以"确定性"保障生产稳定运行 在江苏亨通光电（600487）的生产线上，数十个颜色各异的光纤线轴正按照某种规则，有条不紊地转动着，通过绞合工艺，最终生产出一根彩色的光缆。 这项操作看似简单，背后是工业"大脑"和生产线终端每秒6次的确认应答。"这就像'大脑'和'四肢'确认彼此的存在。响应稍有延迟，就可能影响生产质 量。"亨通光电工程师彭朋苇道出了高端制造对网络性能的极致要求。 基于此，江苏移动充分发挥网络与算力优势，联合生态伙伴，融合人工智能、大数据、算力等多元能力，将复杂的行业问题解耦为可标准化实施，又支持 个性化定制的解决方案，让通用技术能够深度适配特定产线、特定工艺的个性化 ...

电子烟更新：再看 HNB 和思摩尔国际 20251221 核心成长盘业务。Glow Halo 在日本市场推出后，其市场份额迅速提升，到 2025 年 6 月已达到 1%，高端市场份额更达 2%。此外，在波兰和意大利等地 也取得了显著成绩，例如意大利仅销售一个月就占据 0.5%的市场份额。这些 成功验证了 Glow Halo 的市场潜力，并推动公司股价在 2025 年达到高点。 对于 HNB 行业及 Glow Halo 未来的发展预期如何？ HNB 行业整体增速稳定且呈现上升趋势，各大烟草巨头如英美、菲莫和日烟都 处于推新周期，预计到 2030 年整个行业渗透率将加速提升。基于这一预期， 以及 Glow Halo 在全球各大市场中的良好表现，有望实现 100 亿利润左右的 目标，从而使公司市值进一步提升。然而近期由于成长斜率存在分歧，公司股 价经历了一定幅度调整，但整体来看 HNB 行业依然具备良好的发展前景。 摘要 受益于 TA 法规调整和欧美市场规范，斯摩尔国际雾化烟业务在 2024 年底触底反弹，预计未来几年将保持稳定增长，为公司贡献约 400 亿人 民币市值。 英美烟草新型 HNB 产品 Glow Ha ...