全球 HALO 交易： "两会"窗口如何攻守兼备？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 本周科技与资源的双线行情，本质上是同一套市场逻辑的"一体两面"——前者对应 "AI 带动算力与电力需求扩张、国产替代加速"的产业景气逻辑，后者对应"PPI 回 升、反内卷政策落地、全球资源再定价"的周期修复逻辑。 2、《担保比例提至高位，资金调仓 3、《春节后科技主线行情或将如何 1）资源品方面，美伊局势升温推动国际油价假期累涨逾 5%，叠加国内 PPI 环比持续 回升与供给侧"反内卷"政策效果显现，两者共振全球资金向重资产方向切换，钢铁、 有色、稀土、基础化工等板块形成共振。2）科技方面，算力硬件与存储是本周真正 主线：SK 海力士披露 DRAM 与 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，全年涨价预期进一步强化， 国产存储替代逻辑同步升温；AI 应用与大模型概念则因缺乏业绩兑现支撑而明显回 撤，科技板块内部呈现"硬件强、应用弱"的结构性分化。 ...

核心观点 算电融合、两会临近、低配低估，板块关注度提升驱动投资节奏提前演绎 煤与煤电、利与红利：把握业绩边际变化，关注央国企市值管理 煤炭：重视电煤需求弹性与煤价反馈，兖矿能源、中国神华、陕西煤业； 火电：评估市场化交易、容量电价新政下的 Q1 业绩稳定性，兑现火电公用事业化。我们强调，即便在电量电价 和煤价都处于劣势的情况下，目前港股火电和部分 A 股稳定分红型火电已经具备较好的股息价值，关注一季报前后火 电的投资窗口期，申能股份、华能国际电力股份、国电电力、大唐发电 H、内蒙华电、建投能源、京能电力等。 央国企市值管理：关注提升市值管理诉求、推动资本运作进展两维度的边际变化，重视大中型市值央国企（600 亿附近）：桂冠电力、华电国际、川投能源，推进回购注销且股东增持的金开新能。 水电：跟踪主汛期水文数据改善带来的业绩预期抬升，关注市场波动下的风格切换，国投电力、长江电力。 风险提示 我们此前提出煤与煤电、利与红利的投资节奏：第一轮是当前，关注电煤需求弹性带动煤价提升，激发煤炭板块 机会；第二轮是一季报前后，关注火电业绩稳定驱动的公用事业化；第三轮是 4-6 月的汛期，关注水文改善下的水电； 并且持续关注央 ...

证券研究报告 中电控股 (2 HK) 港股通 2025 年盈利承压但派息同比+1.6% 2026 年 2 月 28 日│中国香港 发电 公司公布 2025 年业绩：实现营业收入 880.18 亿港元，同比-3.2%；归母净 利润 104.68 亿港元，同比-10.8%，略低于我们此前预期（106.70 亿港元）， 主因中国内地燃煤发电资产减值及雅洛恩电厂成本拨备导致影响可比性项 目亏损超预期（-4.41 亿港元）。2025 年下半年公司实现营业收入 451.64 亿港元，同比-3.7%；归母净利润 48.44 亿港元，同比-16.4%。2025 年 DPS 3.20 港元，较 2024 年同比+1.6%（3.15 港元），分红比例 77.2%。鉴于公 司兼备稳定型与成长型业务，分红可持续性高，我们看好公司未来业绩增长 及分红提升的潜力，维持"买入"评级。 2025 年香港营运盈利同比+8%，其余地区营运盈利均承压 2025 年公司中国香港售电量同比-1.0%，但营运盈利同比+8%至 92.51 亿 港元，主因 1）资本开支投入（2024-28 年预计投入 529 亿港元）转固推 动管制计划固定资产净额同比提升 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 电力及公用事业行业重大事项点评 绿电下游新需求不断涌现，"电力+算力"为 推荐（维持） 绿电打开全新增长空间 事项： 国务院国资委日前提出积极扩大算力有效投资，推进"算力+电力"协同发展。 上市公司层面，近期绿电与算力、储能、绿醇等新型方向融合发展的案例不断， 强调绿电板块的投资机会。 评论： 电力及公用事业 2026 年 02 月 28 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱 ...

春节多地电力市场出现零负电价，"十五五"能源勘探开发进口税收优惠政策发布 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 28 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 春节期间多地电力市场出现零负电价，"十五五"能 源勘探开发进口税收优惠政策发布 2026 年 2 月 28 日 ...

| 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2 月北证 50 指数跑赢创业板 50 和科创 50，关注调入 50 指数标的+基本面优质次新股 证券研究报告 ——北交所周观察第六十六期（20260301） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2026 年 2 月北证 50/北证专精特新指数分别上涨 0.36%/0.39%，跑赢创业板 50 和科创 50 指 数。从具体公司涨跌幅来看，2026 年 2 月有 14 家公司涨幅达到或超过 10%（不包含新股）， 其中*ST 云创、亿能电力和灿能电力 3 家公司涨幅超 20%，曙光数创、美心翼申、惠丰钻石、 方盛股份和天工股份 5 家公司涨幅超 15%，主要为电力、液冷、有色等产业链公司。从成交 情况来看，2026 年 2 月日均成交额回落到 191 亿元，2026 年 2 月北交所月换手 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the State Council's implementation opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [14][15]. - The green methanol projects in China are primarily concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions, with a planned capacity of 18.37 million tons per year [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and recommends investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36%, while the public utility index fell by 1.25% and the environmental index increased by 0.63% [13][21]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 0.23%, hydropower by 2.06%, and new energy generation by 0.58% [22]. Important Policies and Events - The State Council issued opinions on the national unified electricity market system, targeting a fully operational market by 2030 [14]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans for the 2026 national carbon emissions trading market [15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and regional power companies like Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [18]. - New energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended due to supportive national policies [18]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profits [18]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [18]. - The report suggests focusing on environmental companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings as they enter a mature phase [19]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International (600027.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 9.9 [7]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.75 for 2024A and a PE of 20.5 [7]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 20.0 [7]. - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.55 for 2024A and a PE of 9.5 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's stock performance on February 27, 2026, was influenced by multiple factors, including positive policy signals and project developments in the renewable energy sector [1][2][3]. Industry Policy and Environment - On February 26, the Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, Li Chuangjun, announced plans to accelerate the revision of the Renewable Energy Law in 2026 and simultaneously prepare the "14th Five-Year" plan, which brings positive expectations for the green power sector [2]. - The electric power sector showed strong performance on the same day, with green power leading the gains. Analysts noted that China's AI model usage has surpassed that of the U.S., and since electricity is a major cost for AI operations, China's cost advantage in green power is significant, catalyzing interest in power stocks [2]. Company Project Advancement - Longyuan Power recently signed a cooperation development framework agreement with the People's Government of Tieli City, Heilongjiang Province, for a 3.53 million kilowatt renewable energy generation project, which includes a 3 million kilowatt pumped storage project, demonstrating the company's ongoing expansion capabilities in the renewable energy field [3]. Fund Movement - On February 27, there was a net inflow of 4.269 million yuan in main funds, marking the second consecutive day of net inflow, indicating increased attention from some investors towards the stock [4]. Stock Price Situation - The stock price approached the technical resistance level of 16.64 yuan and successfully broke through the 60-day moving average. The KDJ indicator showed a K value of 78.17, indicating a relatively strong position [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the emergence of HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) assets as a new investment focus due to the disruptions caused by AI, prompting investors to reassess risks [1] - Morgan Stanley introduced the HALO trading concept, creating a HALO basket (MSXXHALO) that includes seven structural pillars: materials, utilities, railroads, pipelines, waste management, defense, and signal towers, aimed at mitigating risks associated with technological obsolescence [1] - Goldman Sachs corroborated this trend, indicating that the market is undergoing a "scarcity repricing" under the pressures of rising interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, and increased AI capital expenditures, with tangible production capacity becoming a scarce resource [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, HALO assets have been identified, with the electricity sector experiencing a strong rise driven by the HALO trading logic and increased electricity demand from AI [2] - Core materials such as rare earths and minor metals have also become focal points for investment, driven by supply-demand dynamics and AI-related demand [2] - Overall, A-share HALO assets are concentrated in electricity, metals, and utilities, exhibiting a "stronger gets stronger" structural characteristic, reflecting a global revaluation trend of HALO assets, although some leading stocks in the A-share market may face higher valuation risks due to excessive market enthusiasm [2]