2026 年作为 "十五五" 开局之年，宏观经济与资本市场走向备受关注。近日，鹏华基金固收团队四位固 收领域资深基金经理 ——债券投资一部总经理祝松、债券投资二部总经理刘涛、多元资产投资部总经 理王石千、混合资产投资部基金经理陈大烨携团队重磅发布2026年度投资展望和策略，围绕宏观经济判 断、市场潜在风险及"固收+"投资展开深度研判，一致看好政策护航下的市场结构性机会，"固收+"领域 面临的机遇大于挑战，同时针对不同风险偏好投资者推出特色鲜明的产品解决方案。 政策基调保持积极，投资增速有望企稳回升 多位基金经理认为，2026年国内宏观经济增长核心驱动力呈现多元支撑格局。在祝松看来，主要来自于 消费增长和投资企稳。消费方面，预计2026年扩大内需政策仍将持续发力，社零增速可能保持在相对较 高水平。投资方面，基建等投资增速有望企稳提升，2025年中央经济工作会议强调2026年继续实施积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。刘涛表示，2026年中国经济增长 的核心驱动力将主要来自财政扩张、制造业升级、内需修复和出口韧性。 在潜在风险方面，祝松表示，2026年国内宏观经济潜在风险可能主要来 ...

Group 1 - The global electricity supply is facing increasing tension, driven by surging electricity demand from AI data centers in the US, energy transition challenges in Europe, and accelerated industrialization in emerging markets, indicating a new cycle of electricity shortages [1] - China is emerging as a key player in global electricity construction due to its robust power system and manufacturing advantages, presenting significant growth opportunities for domestic industry chain enterprises [1] - Investment focus areas include: 1) Equipment demand growth from power system construction, including energy storage, power equipment, and photovoltaics; 2) Upstream resource products benefiting from power system construction, such as copper and aluminum; 3) Scarce raw materials due to rising demand for new energy; 4) Companies actively transforming due to rising electricity prices, such as cryptocurrency mining operations [1] Group 2 - ETFs related to electricity system construction are attracting significant capital, with notable funds including the photovoltaic ETF tracking the top 30 photovoltaic leaders and the energy storage battery ETF focusing on the energy storage industry chain [2] - The largest battery ETF in the market has seen over 900 million yuan in net inflows over three consecutive trading days, reaching a total scale of 15.886 billion yuan, making it the only battery-themed index fund exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - The rare metals ETF, which tracks the rare metals theme index, has also attracted substantial investment, with over 800 million yuan in net inflows, indicating strong market interest in upstream resource products related to electricity system construction [2] Group 3 - The electric equipment and new energy industry is at the beginning of a new cycle, with global new energy installed capacity expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to revolutionary changes in the power system [3] - High proportions of wind and solar energy integration will create massive demand for energy storage and capacity, while global investments in electricity grids, especially in Europe and the US, will continue to rise to meet carbon neutrality goals [3] - The fundamental changes in electricity demand driven by AI are expected to manifest gradually by 2026, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for the industry [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new wave of electricity investment is emerging globally due to increasing electricity supply shortages, driven by factors such as surging electricity demand from AI data centers in the US, energy transition pains in Europe, and accelerated industrialization in emerging markets [1] - Since 1980, there have been five cycles of electricity shortages globally, with each cycle leading to a significant increase in investment related to electricity and power grids [1] - China is positioned as a key player in global electricity construction, benefiting from a robust power system and manufacturing advantages, which present substantial growth opportunities for domestic industry chain enterprises [1] Group 2 - Investment focus areas include: 1) Equipment demand growth from power system construction, including storage, power equipment, and photovoltaics; 2) Upstream resource products benefiting from power system construction, such as copper and aluminum; 3) Scarce raw materials due to rising demand for new energy; 4) Companies actively transforming due to rising electricity prices, such as cryptocurrency mining farms [1] - High-interest ETFs related to electricity system construction are attracting significant capital, with notable funds including the photovoltaic ETF (560980), energy storage battery ETF (159305), and the largest battery ETF (159755), which has seen over 900 million yuan in net inflows over three trading days [2] - The rare metals ETF (159608) has also attracted substantial investment, with a recent scale exceeding 800 million yuan, reflecting strong interest in upstream resource products related to electricity system construction [2] Group 3 - The electric equipment and new energy industry is at the beginning of a new cycle, with global new energy installed capacity expected to increase significantly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to revolutionary changes in the power system [3] - High proportions of wind and solar energy integration will create massive storage and capacity demands, while global investments in power grids, especially in Europe and the US, will continue to rise to meet carbon neutrality goals [3] - Basic changes in the electricity market are expected to manifest by 2026, driven by increased electricity consumption due to AI and rising electricity prices from grid adjustment and transformation costs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous price increase in the power investment sector due to supply-demand gaps in specific materials, with a particular company in the North Exchange maintaining a leading position in production expansion and efficiency, benefiting from industry price hikes and an increase in the proportion of high-value products [1] - The company has established a strong technological barrier in ultrasonic phased array technology, having penetrated the C919 and BYD battery supply chains, and has accumulated high-quality customer resources in aerospace, nuclear power, and rail transit sectors [1]

Core Insights - Global electricity investment is projected to grow by 60% from 2015 to 2025, with renewable energy sectors leading the growth [1] Investment Trends - Solar energy investment is expected to reach $441 billion this year, representing a staggering 211% increase compared to 2015 [1] - Wind power investment is projected to hit $242 billion, marking a 69% increase since 2015 [1] - Nuclear power investment is anticipated to reach $74 billion, reflecting a 64% growth from 2015 [1] - In contrast, coal power investment is expected to decline by 10% from 2015, totaling $82 billion this year [1]

Group 1 - Guangdong Power Development Co., Ltd. has invested 300,000 RMB to establish Guangzhou Yuedian Linghang Power Co., Ltd., holding 100% of the shares [1] - Guangzhou Yuedian Linghang Power Co., Ltd. was established on August 14, 2025, with a registered capital of 300,000 RMB [1] - The company is located in Guangzhou and operates in the electricity and heat production and supply industry, providing services such as power generation technology services, energy management contracts, and energy-saving management services [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q2 2025 was affected by weak wind conditions, leading to a 4.44% year-on-year decrease in revenue, while net profit increased by 12.48% [7] - The company experienced a 17.00% decline in wind power generation in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year, but overall wind generation for the first half of 2025 increased by 8.37% [7] - The company is focusing on profitability in thermal power generation, with a decrease in output but an increase in profit due to falling coal prices [7] - The company has a robust pipeline of projects, including multiple hydropower and thermal power projects, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The company has demonstrated confidence in its asset value through multiple share buyback announcements [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remain unchanged, with expected net profits of 30.47 billion, 32.34 billion, and 35.43 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 14,428 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 3,047 million, reflecting a 9.1% year-on-year growth [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.10 yuan [6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 29.6% [6]

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing fluctuations as it seeks new main themes ahead of the May Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.03%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.6% as of April 25 [1][2] Real Estate Sector - The Hong Kong real estate stocks surged, with Jin Hui Holdings rising over 50% in early trading on April 25 [3] - Jin Hui Holdings' stock price increased by 56.44% to 3.520, with a market capitalization of 14.2 billion [4] - Other notable gains in the real estate sector included Lingdi Holdings up nearly 30%, and China Aoyuan and R&F Properties both rising over 10% [4][5] - Analysts from Citigroup and HSBC are optimistic about the Chinese real estate sector, predicting improved profitability due to policy support and better management practices [7] Power Sector - The power sector continued its strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Huayin Power and Xichang Power [8][10] - Huayin Power reported a significant year-on-year net profit increase of 894.61% in Q1, attributed to a 54.08 yuan/ton decrease in coal prices and a 7.37% increase in power generation [11] - The total investment in the power sector is expected to reach a record high this year, with State Grid's investment plan exceeding 650 billion yuan and Southern Grid's reaching 175 billion yuan, totaling 825 billion yuan [12]