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高盛:2025 年 5 月中国经济展望
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-25 14:09
Investment Rating - The report provides a growth forecast for China with a rating of 4.6% for 2025, which is above consensus expectations [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [6]. - It expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking, while noting potential upside risks from AI adoption [8]. - The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, projecting flat export volumes for the year [9]. - It expects a widening fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth rising to 9.5% [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.6% for 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, with domestic demand expected to rise to 4.5% [10]. - Consumption growth is projected at 4.9% for 2025, with household consumption at 4.8% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report predicts a prolonged reflation path with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.1% in 2025 [9]. - It outlines a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, aimed at stabilizing the economy [32]. Trade and Exports - The report notes that Chinese exports are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms in 2025, following a 5.9% increase in 2024 [10]. - It emphasizes that despite US-China trade tensions, Chinese exports to other economies may continue to grow [23]. Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending and lower revenue [37]. - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and special bond issuance on fiscal health [37].
2025清华五道口全球金融论坛主题讨论十二丨普惠金融促进包容共进
清华金融评论· 2025-05-24 10:37
2025年5月17日-18日,2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市成功召开,本届论坛以"共享未来:构建开 放包容的经济与金融体系"为主题。18日下午,主题论坛十二"普惠金融促进包容共进"顺利举办。 图为会议现场 主题会议以圆桌讨论形式展开,全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长、深圳市金融稳定发展研究院理事 长王忠民,老挝人民民主共和国银行副行长苏里斯·萨姆努冯,中国人民银行信贷市场司司长彭立峰, AFI副首席执行官兼首席运营官徐淑贤四位嘉宾围绕论坛主题展开讨论,普惠金融联盟政策管理负责人 阿里·基亚祖丁·穆罕默德主持会议。 王忠民 全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长 深圳市金融稳定发展研究院理事长 王忠民指出,共同发展强调宏观与微观经济主体(如企业、家庭)在普惠与共融中实现 利益最大化。在人工智能时代,这一逻辑体现在三大场景:一是开源技术降低了社会创 新成本;二是云服务共享使中小企业零成本接入,提升了整体收益;三是数字资产收购 与整合创造了"空能生妙有"的价值跃升。此外,普惠金融与金融稳定的协同需技术创新 支撑:区块链保障数据安全,AI监管沙盒平衡创新与风险,例如数字支付赋能家庭和小 微企业的信贷服务。中国社保基 ...
信息洪流,如何“熵减”?中金点睛大模型为投研效率加码
中金点睛· 2025-05-24 00:57
DeepSeek风靡全球,海内外AI大模型应用百花齐放,那么,在金融行业面对海量的AI生成式信息,机构投资者如何获取准确、可靠、深度的高质量 研究内容,中金点睛大模型应运而生,提高投研人员研究效率,助力金融投研领域的价值信息传递。 中金点睛大模型,您身边的专属办公助理,拥有三大应用场景: 改善幻觉、精准定位权威数据 深度思考中金智慧,直达投资核心观点 提炼会议全链路价值,保护用户隐私,让高效办公触手可及 找数据 中金点睛大模型接入中金分析师甄选与加工的12万条全行业精品指标、全量上市公司财务数据。 基于中金研究知识库,智能理解用户意图,穿透数据噪音,为用户精准匹配投资中重要的影响变量,准确可视化呈现指标结果。 更有数据推理计算、条件选股能力,让回答可解释,为用户提供可信赖的研究依据。 AI搜索 海量信息纷繁复杂,如何改善大模型生成内容的准确性问题,找到投资所需的关键驱动因素? 中金点睛大模型紧跟行业前沿技术,接入国内领先推理大模型,融合中金分析师积累的总量、行业、个股的研究框架与知识。 让思考专业有框架:提炼重要信息来源。 让内容精练含重点:深度思考推理模型,总结关键影响因素。 让信息准确可溯源:引文角标,一 ...
Alkami to Present at the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference
Prnewswire· 2025-05-23 12:00
Group 1 - Alkami Technology, Inc. is a leading provider of cloud-based digital banking solutions for financial institutions in the U.S. [2] - The company will present at the 45th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference on June 4, 2025, with CEO Alex Shootman and CFO Bryan Hill participating [1] - A webcast and replay of the conference will be available on the company's investor relations website [1] Group 2 - Alkami's solutions enable clients to grow confidently, adapt quickly, and build thriving digital communities [2] - The company focuses on transforming retail and business banking, onboarding and account opening, payment security, and data and marketing solutions [2]
整理:每日港股市场要闻速递(5月23日 周五)
news flash· 2025-05-23 01:16
1. 小米集团(01810.HK)发布玄戒O1旗舰处理器,采用第二代3nm先进工艺制程,将搭载于15S Pro、平 板7 Ultra、手表S4;小米YU 7今日正式发布,定位 "豪华高性能SUV"。 2. 恒瑞医药(01276.HK)昨日暗盘高开涨超27%,收盘涨32.24%,报58.25港元,成交额7.51亿港元。 3. 新华保险(01336.HK)出资100亿元认购国丰兴华鸿鹄志远二期私募证券投资基金。 金十数据整理:每日港股市场要闻速递(5月23日 周五) 个股新闻 4. BOSS直聘(02076.HK):截至2025年3月31日总收入19.23亿元人民币,同比增加12.88%;归属于股东 净利润5.18亿元,同比增加111.53%。 5. 据港交所文件,友邦保险(01299.HK)于5月22日耗资2120万港元回购了32.5万股股份。 6. 新加坡微小核糖核酸(miRNA)技术公司Mirxes-B(02629.HK)今日挂牌,昨日暗盘交易时段一度涨超 40%。 7. 汇丰控股(00005.HK)于5月21日耗资1.522亿港元回购了160万股股份,并耗资3280万英镑在其他交易 所回购了总计370万股 ...
中金:美债、日债,与全球流动性趋紧
中金点睛· 2025-05-22 23:53
点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间5月21日,20年期美债拍卖遇冷,中标利率升破5%,投标倍数跌至2.46[1],引爆市场恐慌,美国市场再度出现股债汇"三杀",10年期美债利率一 度突破上行阻力位4.6%。同样的,5月20日日本国债拍卖结果也较冷,20年期投标倍数跌至历史低位2.5,10年日债利率站上1.5%[2]。我们认为, 美、日 债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行,可能反映了当前全球流动性趋紧,而作为重要融资货币,日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。 我 们再次提示,随着特朗普"美丽大法案"(one big beautiful bill)通过在即,美债上限问题得到解决后,财政部可能 在 7-9月集中投放新增美债,美国市场 遭受系统性流动性冲击的风险上升,美联储开启QE等扩表政策来救市的迫切性正在提升 (参见《 美国流动性冲击 、重启QE与主权财富基金 》)。 全球流动性收紧 2022年6月以来,主要发达国家央行同步开启QT。较2022年二季度,2024年底美、日、欧、英四大央行的资产占本地GDP比例分别下滑了12.1、14.0、 29.3和17.6个百分点,如果仅考虑狭义流动性[3],比例则分别 ...
【巴西上调金融操作税税率】5月23日讯,巴西政府将一系列外汇交易(包括向国外汇款和使用国际卡)的金融操作税(IOF)税率统一为3.5%;与进出口有关的外汇交易、汇往国外的利润和股息仍然免征。新政策将从5月23日起生效。改革后,预计在2025年增加205亿雷亚尔(36.1亿美元)税收,在2026年增加410亿雷亚尔税收。
news flash· 2025-05-22 20:50
金十数据5月23日讯,巴西政府将一系列外汇交易(包括向国外汇款和使用国际卡)的金融操作税 (IOF)税率统一为3.5%;与进出口有关的外汇交易、汇往国外的利润和股息仍然免征。新政策将从5 月23日起生效。改革后,预计在2025年增加205亿雷亚尔(36.1亿美元)税收,在2026年增加410亿雷亚 尔税收。 巴西上调金融操作税税率 ...
Goldman Vs Evercore: Which Investment Banking Stock is a Smarter Bet?
ZACKS· 2025-05-22 16:47
Core Viewpoint - The investment banking landscape is evolving, with Evercore Inc. and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gaining investor attention due to their distinct service offerings in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and wealth management [1]. Investment Banking Sector Overview - The long-term outlook for the investment banking sector remains favorable, but near-term momentum has moderated due to market volatility and concerns over economic slowdown and inflation [2]. - The anticipated recovery in M&A activity is expected to occur in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Goldman Sachs Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a leadership position in global banking and markets, with a 24% year-over-year increase in IB revenues in 2024, driven by corporate debt and equity issuances [3]. - However, IB revenues declined by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025 due to market uncertainty and a slowdown in M&A activities [3][4]. - Goldman is strategically exiting its non-core consumer banking business to focus on higher-margin areas like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple [5][6]. - The company has divested several consumer finance businesses to enhance its focus on scalable core businesses [6]. Evercore Analysis - Evercore, while smaller, generates 95.9% of its revenues from Investment Banking and Equities, with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2017 to 2024 [7]. - The company is actively increasing its staff in the IB sector, employing 197 senior managing directors as of March 31, 2025, to support revenue growth [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Goldman shares fell by 0.1%, while Evercore shares dropped by 28.7%, against an industry growth of 0.8% [9]. - Goldman is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 12.72X, higher than its five-year median of 10.17X, while Evercore trades at 18.06X, above its five-year median of 12.40X [11]. - Evercore's valuation is at a premium compared to the industry average of 13.73X, while Goldman is trading at a discount, making it a better choice for value investors [14]. Dividend Yield - Evercore has a dividend yield of 1.43%, while Goldman has a higher yield of 2.02%, both exceeding the industry average of 1.12% [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goldman suggests year-over-year revenue increases of 7.7% and 6% for Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, with earnings growth of 13.9% and 20.9% [18]. - Conversely, Evercore's estimates indicate a revenue decline of 7.1% and 1.2% for the same quarters, with earnings declines of 22.7% and 3.4% [20]. Strategic Positioning - Despite near-term challenges, Goldman is well-positioned with an increased backlog and diversified revenue base, providing resilience that Evercore lacks during volatility [21]. - Goldman’s focus on high-return segments and divestitures is improving operational focus and profitability [22].
5月22日晚间新闻精选
news flash· 2025-05-22 13:46
Group 1 - The central bank announced a 500 billion MLF operation with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of one year [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stated that the first batch of pilot reforms for long-term investment of insurance funds is 50 billion, the second batch is 112 billion, and a third batch of 60 billion is pending approval, totaling 222 billion [2] - The CSRC's Chief Risk Officer emphasized the continuous optimization of the domestic listing environment for technology companies, supporting high-quality red-chip tech firms to return to domestic listings [3] Group 2 - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 15S Pro, Pad 7 Ultra, and Watch S4, all equipped with the self-developed Xuanjie chip; the Xiaomi YU 7 was officially released, positioned as a "luxury high-performance SUV" [4] - Three Life Health reached a cooperation with Pfizer on project 707, with uncertainties regarding the sales milestone payments and royalties [5] - Nanjing Port saw an 8-day cumulative increase of 102.4%, with individual investors accounting for 88.47% of purchases [5]
Final terms for bonds to be listed 23rd May 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-05-22 11:55
To Nasdaq Copenhagen A/S 22nd May 2025 Announcement no. 44/2025Final terms for bonds to be listed 23rd May 2025On 23rd May 2025, Jyske Realkredit A/S will be listing new Covered Bonds (SDO). Final terms for the bonds are attached to this announcement. The full prospectus for the Bonds consist of the attached final terms and the previously disclosed ”Base Prospectus for the issue of Covered Bonds (SDO), Mortgage bonds (“RO”) and Mortgage Bonds (RO) and bonds issued pursuant to Section 15 of the Danish Mortg ...