"蜜月期"已过，中国重卡对俄出口正急速降温。俄罗斯市场曾是中国重卡出口的黄金赛道，但2025年以 来，俄罗斯市场整体需求大幅萎缩，让中国重卡对俄出口增速明显放缓，而俄罗斯不断抬高政策壁垒， 更给势头受挫的中国重卡 "当头一棒"。 01 市场面临深度调整 俄罗斯市场长期由本土卡车企业以及众多欧美品牌共同主导，这一稳定局面在2022年迎来历史性转折。 俄乌冲突引发的供应链断裂，让本土重卡企业产能严重受限，难以满足市场需求。与此同时，欧美日韩 整零企业集体撤离，留下了巨大的市场真空。 在此背景下，中国重卡企业实现"快速补位"，由此在俄罗斯市场开启了数年的"黄金增长期"，市场份额 从不足10%飙升至超过60%，推动形成以俄罗斯本土品牌和中国车企为主要力量的新格局。在2024年俄 罗斯重卡市场销量排名前十的企业中，有七席由中国车企占据，居于销量前位的车企几乎被中国车企和 本土品牌包揽。 税费政策的调整，直接抬高了中国重卡进入俄罗斯市场的资金成本，削弱了其价格竞争力。不仅如此， 俄罗斯还不断收紧非本土卡车的认证标准和条件。例如，在认证体系方面，所有进口车型必须通过俄罗 斯本土实验室的强制性检测，认证周期从6个月拉长至12 ...

据中国汽车工业协会分析， 10 月，在商用车主要品种中，与上月相比，客车和货车产销均呈不同程度下降；与去 年同期相比，客车和货车产销均呈不同程度增长 。 2025 年 10 月， 商用车产销分别完成 36.4 万辆和 36.1 万辆，环比分别下降 3.3% 和 1.9% ，同比分别增长 25.4% 和 21% 。 2025 年 10 月， 客车产销均完成 5 万辆，环比分别下降 8.8% 和 11.2% ，同比分别增长 13.3% 和 15% 。在客车细 分品种中，与上月相比，中型客车产销呈两位数增长，其他两大类客车品种产销呈不同程度下降；与去年同期相比， 2025 年 1-10 月， 商用车产销分别完成 345.6 万辆和 347.9 万辆，同比分别增长 10.9% 和 9% 。 中型客车产销呈不同程度下降，其他两大类客车品种产销呈不同程度增长 。 2025 年 1-10 月， 客车产销分别完成 45.4 万辆和 45.7 万辆，同比分别增长 12.7% 和 13% 。在客车细分品种中， 与去年同期相比，三大类客车品种产销均呈不同程度增长 。 2025 年 10 月， 货车产销分别完成 31.4 万辆和 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China experienced significant growth in sales during September and October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 83% and 60% respectively, indicating a strong performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [1][21]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the heavy truck market sold a total of 106,200 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 60% [3]. - The tractor truck segment achieved sales of 58,600 units in October, with a month-on-month growth of 4% and a year-on-year growth of 83%, marking six consecutive months of year-on-year growth [3][10]. - The sales volume of 58,600 units in October 2025 is the highest in the past five years, surpassing the previous year's figure by 26,600 units [4]. Cumulative Sales - From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of the tractor truck market reached 478,400 units, representing a 21% increase compared to the same period last year [5][15]. - The cumulative sales growth rate expanded by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. Market Share and Rankings - In October 2025, the top ten companies in the tractor truck market accounted for 97.92% of the total sales, with the top five companies holding nearly 90% of the market share [13]. - The leading companies in October included FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, both selling 14,646 units, with Jiefang narrowly winning the monthly sales crown [7][10]. - The market share of the top two companies, Jiefang and Heavy Truck, exceeded 20%, with shares of 24.98% and 24.97% respectively [13][19]. Year-on-Year Growth - All top ten companies in the tractor truck market experienced year-on-year growth in October, with notable increases from China National Heavy Duty Truck, Foton, Dongfeng, and Xugong, achieving growth rates of 113%, 137%, 153%, and 138% respectively [10][21]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a competitive landscape, with some companies like Shandong Leichi making significant gains, while others have seen declines in their rankings [21]. Conclusion - The heavy truck market's performance in October 2025, with a 60% year-on-year growth, and the tractor truck segment's 83% growth, highlights a robust demand in the industry [21]. - As the year approaches its end, the remaining months will be critical for companies to solidify their positions in the market [21].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, driven by scale effects and a shift towards high-end products, impacting profitability across different segments [2][4][5]. Passenger Vehicles - In Q3 2025, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 7.686 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% [2]. - Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 4.024 million units, up 24.2% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a penetration rate of 52.4% [30][49]. - Revenue for six major domestic companies, including SAIC and BYD, totaled 537.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [2]. - The gross margin for passenger vehicle companies was 15.1%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Net profit attributable to parent companies in Q3 2025 was 13.57 billion yuan, a decline of 20.2% year-on-year and 11.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector saw revenue of 279.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.0% [3]. - The gross margin for the auto parts sector was 18.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit growth rate for the auto parts sector was 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.8% [3]. Commercial Vehicles - Heavy truck wholesale sales reached 282,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [4]. - Revenue from key heavy truck companies was 108 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for key bus companies was 19.3%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Motorcycles - The wholesale sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles reached 259,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [5]. - Revenue for the motorcycle sector was 15.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [5]. - The overall gross margin for key motorcycle companies was 23.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD are recommended due to their focus on smart and global expansion [5]. - In the auto parts sector, companies involved in smart driving and lightweight components are highlighted for investment [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the remote new energy commercial vehicle sales continue to lead the industry, achieving both monthly and cumulative sales championships, with a market share of 21.3% in the new energy logistics vehicle segment, marking the 42nd consecutive month of industry leadership [1] - The overall sales of the new energy commercial vehicle industry are gradually declining after a peak in September, but the remote company's methanol-hydrogen electric models are gaining traction, with a year-on-year growth of 253% for methanol-hydrogen heavy trucks, emerging as a dark horse in the industry [1][2] - The methanol-hydrogen electric technology is recognized as the optimal solution for all scenarios in new energy commercial vehicles, leveraging the advantages of long range and low-temperature adaptability, with a cumulative market share of 66.8% for methanol-hydrogen heavy trucks from January to October, maintaining the top position in mixed-power heavy truck sales for 15 consecutive months [2][3] Group 2 - The recently released "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" emphasizes that hybrid power will remain a key driving force in the new energy transformation of commercial vehicles, with expectations that hybrid commercial vehicles will account for over 65% of new sales of traditional energy commercial vehicles by 2040 [4] - The successful promotion of methanol-hydrogen electric technology in Shenyang serves as a valuable case study for large-scale application in northern cold regions, addressing major pain points of traditional pure electric vehicles in low-temperature environments [6] - The collaboration between the remote company and Jinbei Automobile in Shenyang aims to facilitate the new energy transformation of Jinbei through the introduction of methanol-hydrogen electric technology, which is expected to stimulate the development of the entire new energy commercial vehicle industry chain in Liaoning Province [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Commercial Vehicle Show (CCVS) showcased the industry's shift towards green transformation and global expansion, highlighting the steady recovery of domestic demand and the growth potential of new energy commercial vehicles [1][4] - The event featured 23 global debuts and 30 domestic debuts, emphasizing innovative solutions across the commercial vehicle sector [2] - The integration of green and intelligent technologies is reshaping the commercial vehicle landscape, with a significant focus on new energy and smart driving systems [4][6] Industry Trends - The demand for new energy commercial vehicles is driving structural growth, with a notable increase in the number of electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles [4][6] - Companies like Shaanxi Heavy Duty Automobile and BYD are introducing products that enhance fuel efficiency and operational performance, with specific improvements such as a 1% increase in engine efficiency and a 5% reduction in overall energy consumption [2][3] - The trend towards intelligent cabins and L2+ level assisted driving is becoming mainstream, significantly improving operational efficiency and reducing maintenance costs [6][7] Export Growth - The exhibition attracted international manufacturers and dealers, indicating a strong interest in China's new energy commercial vehicles from overseas markets [7] - From January to September, China's commercial vehicle exports reached 748,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with new energy vehicle exports growing by 150% [7] - Companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group are focusing on overseas markets, with expectations to export over 150,000 units this year, contributing significantly to overall revenue [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in high-end and intelligent vehicles, as well as the growth of new energy vehicles [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a divergence in profitability, driven by scale effects and a shift towards high-end and intelligent products. The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 7.686 million units in Q3 2025, up 14.7% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. New energy vehicle sales were particularly strong, with 4.024 million units sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [1][39]. - The report emphasizes the growth in the component sector, with revenues reaching 279.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. The profitability of intelligent components is notably strong, with a gross margin of 18.3% [2]. - In the commercial vehicle segment, heavy truck sales increased by 58.1% year-on-year, with revenues of 108 billion yuan, while bus profitability is also on the rise due to domestic and export demand [3]. - The motorcycle segment is seeing accelerated growth in mid-to-large displacement models, with sales of 259,000 units in Q3 2025, up 19.2% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The automotive sector's fund holding ratio decreased to 6.00% in Q3 2025, reflecting a slight decline in investor confidence amid concerns over seasonal demand and competition [12]. 2. Passenger Vehicles - The report notes that the passenger vehicle market is being driven by policy support and the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, with a total of 5.947 million units insured domestically in Q3 2025, up 2.6% year-on-year [39]. - The average selling price (ASP) is showing divergence, with some brands performing better than others, particularly in the new energy segment [39]. 3. Components - The component sector is benefiting from scale effects and a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - Key areas such as intelligent driving and lightweight components are outperforming the average growth rates in the industry [2]. 4. Commercial Vehicles - Heavy truck sales reached 282,000 units in Q3 2025, with a revenue increase of 26.9% year-on-year, while bus sales also showed positive growth [3]. 5. Motorcycles - The motorcycle segment is experiencing robust growth, particularly in exports, with total revenue reaching 15.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4% [4]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality autonomous brands such as Geely, Xpeng, BYD, and others, as well as in key component manufacturers in the intelligent driving and new energy sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current market for new energy light trucks is competitive but lacks products that effectively address user pain points and enhance operational efficiency. The launch of the Kunpeng ET9 by JAC and CATL is expected to redefine the market standards for new energy urban distribution light trucks, offering innovative technologies and user experiences that can significantly improve user benefits [1][20]. Group 1: Innovative Technologies - The Kunpeng ET9 features five industry-first technologies: a dedicated electric light truck architecture, a wedge-shaped body design, a "clean version" battery, a liquid-cooled flat wire high-efficiency motor, and a highly integrated seven-in-one SIC power domain controller. These innovations enhance energy efficiency, resulting in over 100 kilometers of increased range and a reduction in energy consumption by over 30% [5][12]. - The wedge-shaped design reduces the vehicle's drag coefficient to 0.33Cd, improving range by 15%, while the seven-in-one controller achieves peak efficiency greater than 99.5%, further enhancing range [10][12]. - The Kunpeng ET9's flat wire oil-cooled motor delivers a peak power of 180 kW and a maximum torque of 400 Nm, with a 50% improvement in cooling efficiency and a 3.5% increase in transmission efficiency [12][14]. Group 2: User Value and Experience - The Kunpeng ET9 aims to maximize user benefits through six key value experiences: saving time, money, effort, enhancing safety, comfort, and convenience. It can save users one hour of daily operation and over 13,000 yuan in annual electricity costs, supported by an eight-year or 600,000-kilometer warranty on the battery and intelligent remote services [7][8]. - The vehicle's design allows for quick charging, with a 20%-80% state of charge achieved in just 18 minutes, making it comparable to traditional refueling times [12][14]. Group 3: Market Adaptability and Solutions - The Kunpeng ET9 is designed to adapt to various operational scenarios, moving beyond a generic model to a solution that meets diverse user needs, such as cold chain logistics and high-efficiency delivery [15][19]. - It includes customizable features for different scenarios, such as dual compressor mounts for cold chain users and enhanced torque and chassis tuning for complex road conditions [17][19]. - The vehicle's development is informed by insights from JAC's extensive user base and operational data, ensuring that it meets the specific demands of various transport scenarios [14][20].

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Commercial Vehicle Show (CCVS) held in Wuhan focused on "high-end, intelligent, and green" themes, showcasing the latest achievements in the global commercial vehicle industry [1] - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, as the host, presented six models covering pure electric, hydrogen, and hybrid technologies, along with seven core technology exhibits, emphasizing its technological strength and ecological layout [1][3] Industry Overview - The Chinese commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with sales reaching 3.117 million units from January to September 2025, marking a 7.8% year-on-year increase [3] - In the new energy sector, sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 566,000 units, a staggering 61.4% increase year-on-year, with a market penetration rate of 23.9%, expected to exceed 30% for the year [3] - Exports of new energy commercial vehicles reached 64,000 units, a 150% increase, highlighting globalization and new energy as dual driving forces for the industry [3] Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Performance - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle achieved a wholesale sales volume of 63,000 units in the first half of the year, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with terminal sales at 60,000 units [3] - The company’s new energy product sales surged by 191% year-on-year, becoming a significant growth driver in the commercial vehicle sector [3][5] - By 2024, Dongfeng aims to double its overseas export volume and quadruple its new energy sales compared to the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] Technological Innovations - Dongfeng showcased six high-quality models at the exhibition, including hydrogen fuel cell and pure electric vehicles, demonstrating its comprehensive operational capabilities in the new energy sector [8] - The Dongfeng Tianlong GX hydrogen fuel cell tractor features a fuel cell efficiency of ≥48%, with a refueling time of just 20 minutes and a range of up to 700 km [8] - The Dongfeng Tianlong KL pure electric tractor can recharge to 80% in under 20 minutes, achieving a range of 100 km with just 5 minutes of charging [9] Strategic Vision - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle is committed to sustainable development through innovation in new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, positioning itself as a key player in the low-carbon transformation of the logistics industry [6] - The company plans to maintain high-intensity R&D investments in strategic emerging industries, with over 70% of new industry investments during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [16] - Dongfeng aims to enhance its core capabilities in technology breakthroughs, platform development, and testing validation, striving to become a leader in the international commercial vehicle market [16]

Group 1 - The commercial vehicle sector increased by 0.72% on November 13, with King Long Automobile leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1] - The top 10 gainers in the commercial vehicle sector included King Long Automobile, which rose by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.60 [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the commercial vehicle sector was 47.90 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 13.99 million yuan [1] - The top stocks by trading volume included King Long Automobile with 569,400 shares traded and a transaction value of 9.22 million yuan [1] - The overall trading activity showed a mixed trend with main funds flowing in while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 61.90 million yuan [1]