宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

在大规模设备更新带动下，相关行业生产快速增长。5月份，规模以上锂离子电池制造、船舶及相关装 置制造、锅炉及原动设备制造等行业增加值同比分别增长28.6%、12.8%、11.8%。以旧换新政策持续显 效作用下，绿色、智能、高品质产品的消费需求持续释放，带动了新能源汽车、平板电脑等生产增长。 宏观政策持续发力，提升了市场活力，改善了企业效益和预期。1—4月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比 增长1.4%，比1—3月份加快0.6个百分点，其中4月当月增长3%，比上月加快0.4个百分点。 下一步，我国将实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，进一步扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、激发动力活 力，不断巩固经济向好发展的基础。 在国务院今天举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局相关负责人表示，从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续 发力，促进了需求扩大、生产增长、预期改善、活力释放，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。 从内需看，消费品以旧换新政策，设备更新改造政策的带动作用持续显现。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：5月份，限额以上单位商品零售额中，家用电器和音像器材类、通信器 材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额同比增长在25.6%～53%之间，速度非常快 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akizawa Ryozo, is negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariffs, focusing on a package plan targeting China's rare earth regulations and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports [1][3] - Japan believes it has advantages in rare earth processing, recycling, and reduced usage, proposing to assist the U.S. with technology in these areas, as well as in graphite and gallium [3] - Japan plans to increase imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and purchase billions of dollars in semiconductors from U.S. companies, while also offering support for U.S. chip manufacturing [3] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is approximately $60 billion annually, making it difficult for Japan to solely reduce this surplus to satisfy U.S. demands [5] - Japan's strategy involves sacrificing third-party interests, particularly China, to maintain its own trade benefits, reflecting a form of diplomatic opportunism [5] - The U.S. has conflicting views among its officials regarding trade negotiations, complicating Japan's efforts to secure favorable terms [5][7] Group 3 - The chaotic negotiation environment, including disputes among U.S. officials, significantly reduces the likelihood of Japan reaching an agreement before the G7 summit [7] - Japan's attempts to appease the U.S. at the expense of its trade relations with China are viewed as a poor strategy, with China firmly opposing such actions [7]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.2%[3] - Retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment grew by 10.4% and 8.5% respectively in the first five months of the year[3] - New energy vehicle production surged by 40.8%, while industrial robots increased by 32%[3] - Real estate sales and investment saw declines of -2.9% and -10.7% respectively in the first five months[3] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell from -2.7% to -3.3% year-on-year, indicating price pressures affecting investment[3] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of stabilization, nearing the mid-level of 2022-2024[3] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet the annual growth target of around 5%, but structural changes will depend on the evolution of the current economic narratives[3] - Key issues to monitor include the potential overconsumption of durable goods, export growth rates, and the government's policy responses[3]

Group 1: Support for Private Economy in Shandong - Shandong province has introduced 50 new fiscal policies to support the high-quality development of the private economy, which constitutes 99% of the market entities in the region [2] - The policies focus on five key areas: innovation development, transformation support, financing channel expansion, fair government procurement, and improving policy accessibility [2] - The initiative aims to enhance financial collaboration and guide increased credit and investment for private enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized ones facing cash flow challenges [2] Group 2: Investment in Artificial Intelligence - Shandong has approved the establishment of a 1 billion yuan (approximately 10 million) fund focused on artificial intelligence and integrated circuits, targeting "hard technology" sectors [2][3] - The fund aims to invest in upstream foundational technologies and core components, as well as midstream hardware manufacturing, to drive high-quality development in the AI industry [3] - The AI sector in Shandong has been growing at over 30% annually, with nearly 1,000 key enterprises contributing to a related industry scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Qingdao's State-Owned Enterprise Management - Qingdao has introduced a management approach for state-owned enterprises to clarify strategic positioning and focus on core responsibilities, supporting the city's "10+1" innovative industrial system [4][5] - The city plans to implement a coordinated industrial cultivation model involving state-level coordination, enterprise guidance, fund leadership, and park support [4] - A total of 87 major projects are planned for investment of approximately 30 billion yuan in the current year [4] Group 4: Housing Fund Policy in Qingdao - Qingdao has expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals to include down payments for second-hand homes, enhancing support for housing consumption [6] - The policy allows for additional scenarios for fund withdrawal, such as for elevator upgrades in residential buildings, to improve living conditions [6] Group 5: International Tea Industry Expo - The 19th International Tea Industry Expo will be held in Jinan, featuring 1,500 exhibition booths and participation from over 800 tea enterprises [7] - The event highlights Jinan's position as a major tea distribution center in northern China, attracting numerous tea companies [7] Group 6: Green Shipping Initiatives - Qingdao Port has successfully completed the first international ship biofuel oil refueling operation in northern China, marking a significant step towards green shipping [10] - The biofuel used is a blend of 24% sustainable biodiesel and 76% low-sulfur fuel oil, which can reduce carbon emissions by approximately 20% [10] - A pure electric inland container ship is being constructed for a French shipping group, expected to operate on a green route by 2026, significantly reducing CO2 emissions [12] Group 7: Oil and Gas Platform Installation - The largest oil and gas platform in the Bohai Sea has been successfully installed, setting new records for size and weight in the region [13] - The platform is part of a project aimed at increasing production capacity in China's largest offshore oil field, with an expected annual output target of 40 million tons [13] Group 8: Digital Energy Solutions - Qingdao Teread Electric has launched a digital energy solution covering various applications in the new power system, showcasing innovative products at the SNEC International Photovoltaic & Energy Storage Exhibition [14] - The company aims to integrate smart manufacturing and services to support the transition of the power system [14] Group 9: Battery Recycling Industry - Qingdao has established a new company focused on battery recycling, marking a significant collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises [15][16] - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive platform for battery recycling and reuse, addressing the growing market for retired electric vehicle batteries [16]

扫码订阅 智能制造 产业日报， 4.【国产高端"绿色巨轮"在江苏扬州交付启航，可装载9500辆汽车】6月14日，由招商局金陵船舶 (江苏)有限公司建造的9500车级大型甲醇预留汽车运输船"安吉宏盛"轮在江苏扬州交付启航。该轮的 成功交付是扬州地区船舶工业向高端化、智能化、绿色化转型升级的体现。"安吉宏盛"轮总长 228.00米，型宽37.80米，型深15.40米，结构吃水10.30米，单机单桨带一台艏侧推，主辅机配备 选择性催化还原系统，主辅机和锅炉配备废气洗涤系统，满足TierIII排放要求。同时，该轮有9500个 车位，一次运输的汽车足够停满20个标准足球场，是目前全球最大、装载能力最强、能效水平最佳的 汽车滚装船。（中新网） 更多智能制造产业资讯 …… 1. 【 我国首颗地球物理场探测业务卫星"张衡一号"02星成功发射 】 国家航天局消息，6月14日15 时56分，我国在酒泉卫星发射中心用长征二号丁运载火箭，成功将电磁监测卫星"张衡一号"02星发 射升空。运载火箭将卫星送入预定轨道，发射任务取得圆满成功。这是我国在地球物理场空间观测领 域探测能力建设的又一重大成果，进一步提升我国对重大自然灾害的"天-空 ...

福建舰是中国完全自主设计建造的首艘弹射型航空母舰。 采用平直通长飞行甲板，配置电磁 弹射和阻拦装置，满载排水量8万余吨。 是全球首艘采用常规动力电磁弹射技术的航空母舰。 目前，福建舰的海试工作正按计划稳步推进。 三航母时代到来 让我们永远有后备军 福建舰下水三周年以来，相关的建设和海事工作在不断地推进，福建舰和我们三航母时代的到 来，对于我国维护海洋权益，保障海上通道的安全有什么样的意义？三航母时代到来，会不会 在这种作战模式上产生一些颠覆性的创新。对此，军事评论员魏东旭进行了介绍。 魏东旭表示， 三航母作战体系的成功构建，是我们在强军之路上非常重要的装备体系建设成 果， 体现出海洋方向的防御能力全方位的提升，也是进行积极防御和主动防御的最重要的海 上作战平台。 2022年6月17日，我国第三艘航母下水，命名为福建舰，舷号18。 2022年9月23日，福建舰正按计划开展系泊试验。 2024年5月1日，福建舰第一次海试，为期8天，完成动力、电力等系统设备测试，符合 预期目标。 拥有了三艘航母，就可以在三个主要方向上同时运用航母兵力，这样航母编队本身的机动性是 很强的，会有更为广阔的安全纵深。 与此同时，三艘航母 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Yutengdong Technology Co., Ltd. has completed a multi-hundred million yuan Series A financing led by Zhejiang Chizi Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. [2] Company Overview - Yutengdong Technology focuses on the research and manufacturing of ship power batteries and control systems, leveraging years of experience in new energy vehicle battery technology, three-electric integration technology, and autonomous driving visual perception technology [3] - The company's core power battery system and high-end Battery Management System (BMS) have received certification from China Classification Society (CCS), showcasing its advantages in technology development and product quality [3] Financing Purpose - The financing will primarily be used for the construction of a new production and research base for integrated ship power systems [4] - The company aims to enhance its design, development, and manufacturing capabilities for power batteries and power system integration through high-automation intelligent production lines and comprehensive hardware-software integration systems [4] - Additionally, it plans to expand into diversified solutions in new energy ship power integration, smart energy comprehensive services, and smart shipping data sharing using big data monitoring and analysis capabilities [4] Investment Rationale - The electric shipping industry offers significant advantages in operational costs and user experience, making it a key direction for technological upgrades in the shipping sector [5] - Yutengdong Technology is one of the few companies in the industry with a multi-cell system product offering, possessing design, development, and manufacturing capabilities for power battery modules, packs, battery management systems, and system integration, which are critical factors attracting investment [5] Investment Ecosystem Perspective - The financing reflects the recognition of Yutengdong Technology's technical strength and market potential by venture capital institutions, as well as the commitment of managers to the project [6] - It also affirms the entrepreneurial spirit of the financing party and the sector they operate in, further promoting the development of the new energy shipping industry [6]

2025.06. 14 本文字数：622，阅读时长大约1分钟 福建舰下水将满三年。 从辽宁舰改装到山东舰自主建造，再到福建舰的全面创新 ，我国航 母造得越来越大，越来越先进， 作战能力接连上台阶。 军事评论员魏东旭 表示，我国 直接从滑跃航母到弹射航母，而且还是电磁弹射器，目前世界上掌握 相关技术的只有两个国家，美国和中国 。 据权威人士分析，我们的电磁弹射技术可能要比美国的还 先进。 今年 6 月 10 日，中国海军辽宁舰、山东舰航母编队赴西太平洋等海域开展训练，检验部队远海防 卫和联合作战能力。 这是辽宁舰山东舰首次同时在西太平洋海域训练。 微信编辑 | 苏小 2022年 6 月 17 日，我国第三艘航母下水，命名为福建舰，舷号 18 。 2022 年 9 月 23 日，福建舰正按计划开展系泊试验。 2024 年 5 月 1 日，福建舰第一次海试，为期 8 天，完成动力、电力等系统设备测试，符合 预期目标。 目前，福建舰的海试工作正按计划稳步推进。 6 月 14 日，央视新闻《军情时间到》节目最新披露， 福建舰的海试工作正按计划稳步推进 。 福建舰是中国第三艘航母 。 辽宁舰是从国外引进废旧的航母平台，进 ...

2025.06. 14 本文字数：622，阅读时长大约1分钟 福建舰下水将满三年。 6 月 14 日，央视新闻《军情时间到》节目最新披露， 福建舰的海试工作正按计划稳步推进 。 福建舰是中国第三艘航母 。 军事评论员魏东旭 表示，我国 直接从滑跃航母到弹射航母，而且还是电磁弹射器，目前世界上掌握 相关技术的只有两个国家，美国和中国 。 据权威人士分析，我们的电磁弹射技术可能要比美国的还 先进。 今年 6 月 10 日，中国海军辽宁舰、山东舰航母编队赴西太平洋等海域开展训练，检验部队远海防 卫和联合作战能力。 这是辽宁舰山东舰首次同时在西太平洋海域训练。 2022年 6 月 17 日，我国第三艘航母下水，命名为福建舰，舷号 18 。 2022 年 9 月 23 日，福建舰正按计划开展系泊试验。 2024 年 5 月 1 日，福建舰第一次海试，为期 8 天，完成动力、电力等系统设备测试，符合 预期目标。 目前，福建舰的海试工作正按计划稳步推进。 微信编辑 | 苏小 推荐阅读 工信部严查车企"说一套做一套" 辽宁舰是从国外引进废旧的航母平台，进行技术改造后，赋予了航母的功能和航母的身份。山东舰是 在辽宁舰的基础上， ...