Core Insights - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in commodity housing continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend in penetration rates, while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced declines [1] - Leading entrusted construction companies are showing strong expansion intentions, indicating a likely continued increase in market penetration rates in the future [1] Penetration Rate Trends - The penetration rate for entrusted construction projects was 5% in Q1 2025, down 0.44 percentage points year-on-year; it surged to 8.7% in Q2, up 2.37 percentage points year-on-year, marking a new quarterly high; and in Q3, it was 7.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1] - If the upward trend continues into Q4, the annual penetration rate is expected to reach a new high [1] Project Distribution - In 2025, 84% of new entrusted construction projects are located in second-tier cities, 15% in third- and fourth-tier cities, and only 1% in first-tier cities; the Yangtze River Delta region leads with a 40% share [2] - Guangzhou has the highest number of entrusted construction projects among first-tier cities, with 9 projects, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [5] Second-Tier City Performance - The penetration rate in second-tier cities reached 9.89% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2.13 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth [6] - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5% [8] Third- and Fourth-Tier City Trends - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased to 6.15% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [11] - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in these cities, particularly in areas like the Pearl River Delta [15] Competitive Landscape - The competition in second-tier cities is intensifying, making it crucial for companies to establish a presence in promising third- and fourth-tier cities or explore niche markets in first- and second-tier cities [17]

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in the commodity housing sector continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024. However, the development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities experience a decline [2][3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects has reached a new high of 7.23%, surpassing the 2024 level. The quarterly breakdown shows a first-quarter rate of 5%, a second-quarter surge to 8.7%, and a third-quarter rate of 7.12% [4][6]. - The distribution of new entrusted construction projects in 2025 indicates that second-tier cities dominate, accounting for 84% of the projects, while only 1% are located in first-tier cities [6][12]. Group 2: First-Tier Cities - Among first-tier cities, Guangzhou leads with the highest number of opened entrusted construction projects, totaling 9, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [8][10]. - The majority of entrusted construction projects in first-tier cities are located in non-core areas, with Guangzhou's projects primarily in districts like Nansha and Zengcheng [10][11]. Group 3: Second-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in second-tier cities has reached 9.89%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth in 2025 [12][13]. - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5%, indicating a strong focus on second-tier cities by construction enterprises [14][16]. Group 4: Third- and Fourth-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities has slightly decreased to 6.15%, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [18][19]. - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in third- and fourth-tier cities, particularly in regions like the Pearl River Delta [21][24].

Core Insights - The company showcased its core competitiveness through the successful management of the Guihu Yun Cui project, which was taken over by China Great Wall Asset Management after the previous developer faced financial issues [1] - The project achieved a cumulative sales rate of 65% since its launch in December 2024, with subsequent price increases for new offerings, indicating strong market acceptance [1] - The company reported a 19% year-on-year increase in new contract value for the first half of 2025, reaching 5 billion, suggesting a positive trend in business expansion [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.44 billion, with expectations of narrowing the gap between revenue and new contract value due to improved project quality and reduced project sizes [2] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement, with a ratio of 44% to net profit compared to 15% in the same period last year, indicating better cash management [2] - The company has actively repurchased shares, totaling 1,000 shares or 0.5% of total equity, and the CEO increased his stake by purchasing 500,000 shares, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with a target price set at 3.2 HKD, corresponding to a 12x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 and an expected dividend yield of 8% [2] - The company is currently trading at a 11.6x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with an expected dividend yield of 8.7%, indicating potential upside [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Greentown Management Holdings (09979) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 3.2, corresponding to a 12x P/E ratio for 2025 and an expected dividend yield of 8% [1] Group 1: Project Performance - The Guihu Yuncui project highlights the company's core competitiveness, achieving a cumulative sales rate of 65% since its opening in December 2024, with price increases on subsequent launches [2] - Greentown Management was selected as the construction agent by China Great Wall Asset, demonstrating its ability to coordinate complex stakeholder interests and regain buyer trust [2] Group 2: Operational Trends - The company reported a 19% year-on-year increase in new contract value for the first half of 2025, reaching CNY 5 billion, with expectations for continued positive momentum throughout the year [3] - The ratio of operating cash flow to net profit improved to 44% in the first half of 2025, up from 15% in the same period last year, indicating a positive trend that is expected to continue into the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Following the mid-term earnings release, the company has repurchased 10 million shares, representing 0.5% of its total share capital, and the CEO has increased his stake by purchasing 500,000 shares [4] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend per share comparable to 2024, implying a dividend yield of 8.7% for 2025, supported by improved cash collection [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Greentown Management Holdings (09979) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 3.2, corresponding to a 12x P/E ratio for 2025 and an 8% expected dividend yield, indicating a 6% upside potential [1] Group 1: Project Performance - The Guihu Yuncui project highlights the core competitiveness of the company, as it was selected by China Great Wall Asset to manage the project amidst financial difficulties faced by the previous developer, achieving a cumulative sales rate of 65% since its launch in December 2024 [2] - The project has received high recognition from the client, Great Wall Asset, leading to ongoing exploration of further project collaborations nationwide [2] Group 2: Operational Trends - In the first half of 2025, the company’s new contract value increased by 19% year-on-year to RMB 5 billion, with expectations for continued positive momentum throughout the year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow to net profit ratio improved to 44% in the first half of 2025, up from 15% in the same period last year, indicating a favorable trend that is expected to continue into the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Following the release of mid-term results, the company has actively repurchased shares, totaling 10 million shares, which is 0.5% of the total share capital [4] - The company’s dividend policy remains positive, with expectations to maintain a similar dividend per share in 2025 as in 2024, implying an expected dividend yield of 8.7% for 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Management has successfully completed a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its long-term value and operational prospects [1][2] Group 1: Share Buyback and Management Actions - The company repurchased 10 million shares from August 29, 2025, to October 17, 2025, accounting for approximately 0.49751% of the total issued share capital before cancellation [1] - The average repurchase price was approximately HKD 3.0672 per share, with a total cost of about HKD 30.67 million (excluding transaction fees) [1] - Following the buyback, the total issued share capital decreased from 2.01 billion shares to 2 billion shares after the cancellation on October 28 [1] - The CEO, Wang Junfeng, purchased 500,000 shares for approximately HKD 1.5241 million, indicating confidence in the company's future [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Industry Position - Analysts view the buyback and management's share purchase as a strong signal of confidence in the company's fundamentals amid a challenging real estate market [2] - Greentown Management remains a leader in the construction agency sector, with a signed area of 27.9 million square meters in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining its top position [2] - The company has distributed approximately HKD 3 billion in cash dividends since its listing in 2020, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions, including Morgan Stanley and CICC, maintain optimistic ratings for Greentown Management, indicating a positive outlook for the company [3] - The shift in the real estate industry towards new development models is expected to benefit Greentown Management, which operates with a light asset and low-risk construction agency model [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Ocean Construction Management has successfully won the bid for the Yanuo Street Innovative Functional Area project in Guiyang, providing project planning, product sales, and backend management services [1][3] Group 2 - The project is located in the core area of Guiyang's Yunyan District, adjacent to the provincial government, with rich educational resources and comprehensive medical and commercial facilities [3] - The total construction area of the project is 253,800 square meters, including residential, office, apartment, and commercial complex sectors. The sales area for the residential and commercial parts is approximately 22,309 square meters [3] - Since entering the Guiyang market, Ocean has successfully developed several projects, including Ocean Landscape, Ocean Wanhe Shijia, and Ocean Guanshan Tianbo, accumulating rich local market experience [3] - In the China Real Estate Construction Enterprise Ranking published by the China Index Academy for January to September 2025, Ocean Construction Management ranked 8th in the "New Contract Scale Ranking" and 12th in the "Construction Sales Scale Ranking," indicating recognition of its sales management expertise [3]

Company Developments - CIFI Construction Management expanded its projects by 17 in Q3 2025 [1] - New Town Construction Management signed contracts for over 5.7 million square meters in Q3 2025 [1] - CIFI Construction Management won the bid for the "Fourth Generation Residential" project in Foshan [1] - Longfor's Longzhizao signed a contract with Yiyun Group to set a new benchmark for luxury housing in the Bay Area [1] - Greentown Management delivered over ten projects in Q3, including Wuhan Liuchan Chunxiao [1][6] Industry Trends - Greentown Management's new project management fees reached approximately 5 billion yuan in the first half of the year [14] - CIFI Construction Management initiated its first "Fourth Generation Residential" project in Dalian [14] - The first comprehensive capability evaluation standard for construction management companies was released [14] - Jindi Management published the "Client Service White Paper 2.0" [14] - Yuanyang Construction Management's Dalian Huannan Hui project saw strong sales [14]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 305,000 shares on October 24, 2025, while there have been net increases in holdings on 3 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 1,618,000 shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 15 days, with a total net increase of 10,571,000 shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 283 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, accounting for 14.08% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - The total number of shares held by southbound funds on October 24, 2025, is 283 million, reflecting a decrease of 305,000 shares, which is a change of -0.11% [2] - The shareholding changes over the last few trading days include a decrease of 649,000 shares on October 23, a net increase of 288,000 shares on October 22, an increase of 1,598,000 shares on October 21, and an increase of 686,000 shares on October 20 [2] - Greentown Management Holdings Limited primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other project management services [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 1.598 million shares on October 21, 2025 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been five days of net increases in holdings, totaling 4.038 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 17 days of net increases, amounting to 13.575 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 284 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, representing 14.11% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners, while the government construction management department deals with public infrastructure projects [2]