有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79990 10059 7.97 三月 79680 9878 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1666.99 现货出口 1406.63 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22500 2770 8.12 三月 22445 2780 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.64 -1440.41 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20780 2598 8.00 三月 20495 2599 7.90 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.54 -1404.94 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 15025 7.98 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.23 -2486.93 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600256 证券简称：广汇能源 公告编号：2025-053 广汇能源股份有限公司 关于转让控股子公司合金投资股权的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 广汇能源股份有限公司（简称"公司"）与九洲恒昌物流股份有限公司（简称"九洲恒昌"）签署了《股 份转让协议》，将公司所持新疆合金投资股份有限公司（简称"合金投资"）无限售流通股股份 79,879,575股（简称"标的股份"）予以转让，占合金投资总股本20.74%。经双方协商一致，本次股权转 让交易单价为人民币7.5元/股，交易总价为人民币599,096,812.50元。 ● 本次协议转让完成后，九洲恒昌将持有合金投资79,879,575股股份，占合金投资总股本20.74%，成为 合金投资控股股东；公司不再持有合金投资股份。 ● 本次交易公司旨在立足能源主业长期发展战略，剥离非主营业务资产以提升核心竞争力，九州恒昌旨 在整合物流产业链，联动合金投资协同发展。 ● 本次股权转让事项不存在 ...

t》 - 我 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月30日 星期- Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80125 | 78940 | +1185.00 | 1.50% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | ୧୧ | +45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80070 | 78865 | +1205.00 | 1.53% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેટ | રેર | +40.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80045 | 78880 | +1165.00 | 1.48% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 5 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | Taes | 1452 | +513.08 | 35.34% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | - ...

有色金属日报 2025-6-30 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铜 有色金属小组 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高，伦铜周涨 2.26%至 9879 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79920 元/吨。产业层面，上周 三大交易所库存环比减少 2.0 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 1.9 至 8.2 万吨，LME 库存减少 0.8 至 9.1 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.7 至 19.0 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002237 证券简称：恒邦股份 公告编号：2025-045 债券代码：127086 债券简称：恒邦转债 山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司第九届 董事会2025年第二次临时会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年6月20日以电子邮件等方式向全体董事发出了 《关于召开第九届董事会2025年第二次临时会议的通知》，会议于2025年6月27日上午以现场与通讯相 结合的方式召开。会议应出席董事9人，实际出席董事9人（其中，以通讯表决方式出席会议的董事有曲 胜利先生、徐元峰先生、沈金艳先生、黄健柏先生、焦健先生、吉伟莉女士）。会议由董事长肖小军先 生召集并主持，公司监事和部分高级管理人员列席了本次会议，本次会议的召集、召开和表决程序符合 《公司法》《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事认真审议，通过如下议案： 1.审议通过《关于聘任公司2025年度审计机构的议案》 本议案已经公司第九届董事会审计委 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/20 115 581 100814 33882 -2374.98 385.28 40.0 61.0 274.99 99200 44800 2025/06/23 90 521 100814 25528 -2539.49 228.07 38.0 60.0 279.97 95875 41450 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 变化 40 2 ...

有色金属日报 2025-6-27 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数走弱，LME 现货再次走强，铜价涨幅扩大，昨日伦铜收涨 1.74%至 9896 美元/吨，沪铜主力 合约收至 79790 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 400 至 93075 吨，注册仓单量维持低位，注销 仓单比例下滑至 39.2%，Cash/3M 升水扩大至 319.8 美元/吨。国内方面 ...

摘要 2025 年有色金属市场由供应瓶颈主导，铜、铝、黄金及部分小金属下 半年值得关注。铜或因冶炼端减产上涨，铝面临交割品不足逼仓风险， 锑钼受益于旺季和地缘冲突。 铜矿供应预计全年负增长，冶炼端增速下滑，TCRC 创历史新低。中国 铜需求主要来自出口，美国需求由电解铜进口拉动。下半年供应回落幅 度大于需求，铜价看涨。 电解铝利润维持高位，氧化铝供应宽松。光伏、汽车等下游需求良好， 显性库存处于近七年低位，存在逼仓风险，铝价看涨。 上半年黄金 ETF 大额流入推动金价上涨，中国贡献较多。COMEX 非商 业端持仓下降反映需求买入，而非投机。美联储降息及央行购金预期下， 金价仍有上涨空间。 稀土政策转向冶炼环节管控，产业链利润重新分配。2025 年稀土供需 偏紧，下半年配额落地后，冶炼增速或超预期回落，稀土行情乐观。 Q&A 2025 年有色金属市场的整体表现如何？ 稀缺性裂变时代：供应瓶颈主导价格新秩序 - 2025 年金 属材料中期策略 20260626 月度总需求 20%。随着美联储降息及央行购金预期，未来黄金价格仍有进一步 上涨空间。 稀土与小金属市场有哪些重要变化？ 2025 年有色金属市场受到宏观经 ...