Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] - The model incorporates price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but no significant improvement signals were observed for July 2025[13] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the stable proportional relationship between hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months to estimate future supply-demand gaps[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter} / \text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)} $[14] - Future potential supply is estimated as: $ \text{6-Month Potential Supply} = \text{Current Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 Months Ago)} $[15] - Future demand is projected based on historical quarterly slaughter data[15] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this method effectively identifies hog price upward cycles[15] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and calculates per-ton profit for the steel industry by considering steel prices and raw material costs[17] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model integrates steel prices with the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the industry's profit trends but indicates a negative profit growth rate for June 2025[21] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - For the glass industry, the model calculates gross profit based on price and cost data[27] - For the cement industry, the model incorporates coal fuel price changes to predict profit growth rates[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively tracks profitability trends but maintains a neutral signal for both industries due to the lack of significant positive indicators[27] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses variations in fuel and crude oil prices to calculate profit growth rates and cracking spreads[28] - Allocation signals are designed based on observed changes in oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts stable profit growth for June 2025 but maintains a neutral signal due to the lack of significant upward trends in oil prices and drilling activity[35][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The model tracks the historical excess return of the coal industry relative to the Wind All-A Index, showing a declining profit trend for July 2025[13] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply at 18,226 million heads and demand at 18,244 million heads[16] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model forecasts a negative profit growth rate for June 2025, with no significant improvement in PMI rolling averages[21] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Gross profit for float glass continues to decline year-on-year as of June 2025[27] - **Cement Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to be positive for June 2025, driven by lower coal fuel prices[27] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts stable profit growth for the refining industry in June 2025, with oil prices and new drilling activity showing no significant upward trends[35][38]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities has significant implications for global markets, particularly the A-share market in China, which is expected to react to the geopolitical tensions and potential economic impacts [3][10][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. military action, there is anticipation of a surge in oil prices, similar to the previous spike after Israel's airstrike on Iran, where Brent crude oil rose over 14% in a single day [10][13]. - The A-share market is expected to see a strong performance in oil and gas sectors, with companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Oilfield Services likely to benefit directly from rising oil prices [15]. - Historical data suggests that capital markets often respond positively to military conflicts, as seen during the Gulf War and the Iraq War, where stock indices experienced significant gains [16]. Group 2: Beneficiary Sectors - The oil and gas industry is poised to be a major beneficiary, as Iran's production capacity of 3.3 million barrels per day and its strategic location in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 25% of global oil transport, are critical factors [14][15]. - Gold and military sectors are also expected to see increased investment, with gold prices rising during geopolitical crises and military procurement in the Middle East likely to surge [16]. - Companies involved in nuclear pollution prevention may see a rise in interest and valuation, as the recent military actions raise concerns about nuclear safety [16]. Group 3: Impact on Other Industries - The aviation and tourism sectors are likely to suffer due to increased operational costs and reduced passenger traffic, as the Middle East becomes a no-fly zone [16]. - High-energy-consuming industries, such as chemicals and construction, may face significant cost pressures due to rising oil prices, potentially leading to reduced profit margins [16]. - There is a consensus among market analysts that oil prices are likely to rise, with estimates suggesting that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, global oil transport could face a shortfall of 4.8 million barrels per day, pushing Brent crude prices towards $120 [16].

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - A total of 28 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 16 stocks experiencing net buying and 13 stocks facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Keheng Co., Ltd. (75.16 million), Xiexin Energy Technology (71.78 million), and Bangji Technology (55.89 million) [1][2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Keheng Co., Ltd. saw a net buying of 75.16 million from three institutions, with a stock price increase of 7.97% [2][3] - The company is engaged in research and evaluation of solid-state batteries, focusing on improving safety and energy density by replacing liquid electrolytes with solid electrolytes [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The short drama industry is experiencing significant growth, with Chinese companies dominating the international market, as evidenced by 41 out of the top 50 overseas short drama applications being developed by Chinese firms [4] - The AI-driven short drama sector is expected to see substantial advancements by 2025, with increased production and user engagement anticipated due to technological improvements [5] - The oil service industry is highlighted by Tongyuan Petroleum, a leader in the composite perforation sector, and the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting global oil prices, particularly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. Oil and gas stocks surged, with companies like Shandong Molong and Jun Oil reaching their daily limit up. Conversely, the innovative drug sector saw declines, with Changshan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit down. Overall, more than 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the red, with a total trading volume of 1.28 trillion [1]. Hot Topics Oil Service Sector - The oil service sector remained active, with Jun Oil and Shandong Molong achieving five consecutive limit ups. On June 19, crude oil futures continued to rise, reaching the highest level since April [4]. - The geopolitical risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz persists, with approximately 11% of global maritime trade passing through this strait, including 34% of maritime oil exports. This situation could lead to a significant impact on global oil trade, suggesting that oil prices may rise amid geopolitical uncertainties [5]. Short Drama Sector - The short drama sector saw a strong performance in the afternoon, with companies like Zhangyue Technology and Ciweng Media hitting their daily limit up. Tencent launched a new mini-program named "Short Drama" following the earlier release of "Mars Viewing Drama" [6]. - According to CITIC Securities, over 80% of the top 50 overseas short drama applications are developed by Chinese companies, indicating a robust international market presence for China's short drama industry [7]. Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector was active again, with companies like Nord and Xiangtan Electrochemical reaching their daily limit up. Upcoming forums and conferences focused on solid-state battery technology are expected to catalyze advancements in the industry [9]. - Dongxing Securities predicts that the solid-state battery sector will see simultaneous revenue and profit growth by 2025, driven by new demand and technological advancements [10]. Other Active Sectors - Other sectors showing activity include blockchain, military industry, and robotics, while sectors like nuclear fusion, rare earth magnets, and innovative drugs faced significant declines [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential military involvement of the US in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, as President Trump considers options to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities [1] - The article mentions the recent Lujiazui Forum, where the market did not respond positively despite the presence of major industry leaders, focusing instead on infrastructure construction [1] - The article highlights the introduction of new policies for unprofitable companies to list on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a new foreign research report library that includes reports from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the steady progress of RMB internationalization and proposed eight financial policies to further open the financial system and promote RMB usage [3] - The article notes a significant phenomenon in the market where both ends of the "dumbbell" are simultaneously contracting, indicating extreme market conditions [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight increases across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.24% [4] - AI hardware-related stocks led the market, with several companies experiencing significant gains, driven by strong demand for ASIC chips [4] - Military stocks surged due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with companies like New Light Optoelectronics and North China Long Dragon hitting their upper limits [5] Group 4 - The article presents data from a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating a strong consensus among managers to short the US dollar, reflecting a significant market sentiment shift [9] - Investor sentiment has reportedly returned to levels reminiscent of a "golden girl bull market," with concerns over trade wars and recession fears easing [11] - The survey also reveals that 54% of respondents believe international stocks will perform best over the next five years, with a notable shift away from US assets [12]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a significant divergence in the performance of the 23 energy stocks within the S&P 500 index in 2025, with an overall trend that remains roughly in line with the broader market, which is up approximately 3% year-to-date [1][3]. Energy Sector Performance - The S&P 500 energy sector has shown a stark divergence, with the top five performing stocks outperforming the bottom five by nearly 29% [1][3]. - As of June 16, 2025, ten energy components have outperformed the S&P 500, while thirteen have lagged behind [4][3]. - The worst-performing stock, OKE, has seen a decline of nearly 18% year-to-date [3][6]. Strong Segments - Natural gas and refining sectors are leading the momentum, with strong performance driven by solid underlying factors [5][1]. - Natural gas prices, despite recent volatility, remain robust in the long term, supporting the performance of natural gas stocks [5][9]. - Refining profits are high due to strong demand and limited capacity increases, particularly benefiting refiners along the U.S. Gulf Coast [5][9]. Underperforming Segments - Oilfield services and upstream exploration sectors have lagged significantly, attributed to lowered earnings expectations amid a persistent oversupply in the crude oil market [7][8]. - Companies like Halliburton are expected to see a decline in earnings per share (EPS) by approximately 21% in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting negative sentiment in the market [8][11]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on strong natural gas and refining stocks, expecting continued momentum in these segments [9][10]. - The firm identifies potential mean reversion opportunities in underperforming stocks, particularly in the upstream shale oil sector, with companies like Diamondback Energy and Halliburton showing promise for recovery [10][11]. - The financial health of companies like EQT and Valero is highlighted, with expectations for continued strong performance supported by favorable market conditions [9][10].

Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The proposed stablecoin legislation faces criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren for not addressing financial interests related to Trump and potentially allowing tech giants like Amazon and Meta to issue their own stablecoins [1] - If passed, the legislation could lead to significant growth in stablecoin-related financial products and services, benefiting companies like Circle (issuer of USDC) and Tether (issuer of USDT), while also attracting new market competitors, particularly large tech firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is emerging as a significant market opportunity, contrasting with the stagnation in the innovative drug sector, with the global BCI market size growing from $1.2 billion in 2019 to $1.98 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% [1] - BCI technology shows immense potential in the medical field, particularly for patients with neurological disorders (e.g., Parkinson's and Alzheimer's) and individuals with disabilities, enabling paralyzed patients to control external devices through brain signals [1] - Recent clinical trials in China mark a significant advancement in BCI, with teams from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Fudan University successfully conducting the first invasive BCI clinical trial, positioning China as a global leader in this field [1] - The 2023 "Brain-Computer Interface Innovation Development Plan" emphasizes medical rehabilitation as a primary focus, providing policy support for the clinical application of this technology [1] - With its vast market prospects, technological innovation, and policy backing, BCI is poised to become a new frontier in the pharmaceutical and technology industries, presenting fresh investment opportunities [1] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's industrial output and consumer spending show strong growth, with industrial value-added output increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 6.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector, particularly equipment manufacturing, is recovering robustly, with a 9.0% year-on-year increase in value-added output, indicating its role as a core driver of industrial growth [2] - The automotive sector benefits from policy support, with vehicle production increasing by 11.3% due to consumer demand stimulated by trade-in and subsidy policies [2] - Emerging products in digital transformation, such as smart devices, industrial robots, and 3D printing, are experiencing rapid production growth, supporting high-quality development in manufacturing [2] Group 4: Energy Sector Dynamics - Recent conflicts between Israel and Iran have led to a temporary rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices nearing levels prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day tariff" announcement [3] - Energy stocks, particularly oil service stocks, have not performed well, indicating that the market views the current conflict as a short-term disruption without altering the overall bearish outlook on the oil market [3] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, reflecting a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the oil price rebound [3] Group 5: Meme Coin Surge - The LABUBU brand, a core IP of Pop Mart, has gained significant global popularity, leading to a surge in its associated meme coin, LABUBU coin [4] - After a price drop at the end of 2024, LABUBU coin experienced a resurgence in May 2025, driven by the release of a new wave of LABUBU toys [4] - LABUBU coin is not officially issued by Pop Mart but is developed by a community-driven group, categorizing it as a typical meme coin [4] - Mainstream exchanges are cautious about listing meme coins, focusing on project transparency, governance mechanisms, and market risks to protect user assets [4]

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - A total of 34 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 14 stocks experiencing net buying and 20 stocks facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional buying were: Sifang Jingchuang (84.96 million), Cuihua Jewelry (80.77 million), and Yinghe Technology (47.46 million) [1][2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Sifang Jingchuang saw a price increase of 5.29% with a net buying amount of 84.9682 million [2] - Cuihua Jewelry experienced a decline of 8.62% with a net buying amount of 80.7765 million [2] - Yinghe Technology had a significant price increase of 20.01% with a net buying amount of 47.4684 million [2][3] Group 3: Industry Developments - Yinghe Technology successfully delivered core equipment for solid-state batteries to a leading domestic client [3] - The oil service sector is highlighted with companies like China Merchants Industry and Tongyuan Petroleum, which are leaders in their respective fields [4] - The international oil price has risen to a range of 70-75 USD per barrel, with potential supply changes due to geopolitical conflicts [4] Group 4: Digital Currency and Stablecoins - Hengbao Co., Ltd. is one of the first companies to participate in the People's Bank of China's digital currency pilot program [5] - Dongxin Peace is a provider of digital information security products, focusing on digital RMB-related products [6] - The recent legislation on stablecoins in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate the compliant development of stablecoins and expand the RWA market, projected to reach 16 trillion USD by 2030 [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight declines in the three major indices. The total trading volume reached 1.24 trillion [1] - The brain-computer interface concept stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Aipeng Medical and Innovation Medical hitting the daily limit [1] - Oil and gas stocks surged again, with Tongyuan Petroleum, Shandong Molong, and Zhun Oil shares achieving three consecutive daily limits [1] - Nuclear pollution prevention concept stocks also strengthened, with China Nuclear Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - In contrast, the innovative drug concept saw a pullback, with Kexing Pharmaceutical dropping over 10% [1] Hot Topics Brain Science - The brain science sector saw significant gains, with Aipeng Medical and Innovation Medical hitting the daily limit, and Nanjing Panda and Qisheng Technology also reaching the daily limit [3] - Overnight, US stock Brain Regeneration Technology surged 283%, with multiple trading halts, and has increased over 50 times this year [3] - A significant milestone was achieved as China conducted its first invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial, making it the second country globally to enter this stage [3][5] Oil Services - The oil service sector continued to rise, with Zhun Oil, Beiken Energy, and Shandong Molong achieving three consecutive daily limits [6] - International oil prices have risen to $70-75 per barrel, with potential changes in supply dynamics due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran [6][8] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector became active again, with companies like Yinghe Technology, Keli Yuan, and Nord Shares hitting the daily limit [8] - A forum on lithium sulfide and sulfide solid-state batteries is scheduled for June 25 in Suzhou, which may further stimulate interest in the sector [9] - The demand for lithium sulfide electrolytes is expected to increase significantly, with a notable gap in upstream raw material production capacity [10] Additional Insights - EVTank projects that by 2030, solid-state battery shipments could exceed 600 GWh, with a market size surpassing 250 billion yuan [11] - Other active sectors include blockchain, pesticides, and smart glasses, while innovative drugs, autonomous driving, and the sports industry faced declines [11]