Core Viewpoint - The import of "dry ground pulp" under the guise of recycled paper pulp is essentially a method of importing foreign solid waste, posing significant environmental and health risks to the domestic paper industry [2][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Background - Since January 1, 2021, China has completely banned the import of solid waste, disrupting the supply of imported waste paper for paper manufacturers [2]. - The production of legitimate waste paper pulp requires extensive processing, achieving a fiber content of over 91.5% with minimal impurities, while dry ground pulp skips most of these essential steps [2][3]. Group 2: Environmental and Health Risks - Contaminants such as plastic fragments, heavy metals, and microorganisms can enter the domestic production chain through dry ground pulp, leading to potential health hazards in products like food packaging and sanitary paper [3][5]. - The presence of these pollutants can cause secondary pollution in water treatment systems and may clog machinery in paper production, affecting product quality [3][6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Standardization Issues - The newly released national standard for recycled paper pulp lacks mandatory requirements for key quality indicators, unlike stricter foreign standards [5][10]. - Experts have called for the revision of national standards to include compulsory indicators for fiber integrity and impurity levels, as well as enhanced detection standards for contaminants [10][11]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts recommend strengthening customs supervision and implementing comprehensive inspection and testing to prevent contaminated materials from entering the domestic market [10][11]. - Suggestions include introducing advanced detection technologies and establishing a fiber traceability system to ensure the integrity of imported materials [10][11].

此次融资对接行动，从发现问题到介入协调，再到资金落地，整个过程体现了县科经局服务企业的高速效率和务实作风。目前，县科经局正继续协同中国 农业银行，跟进后续800万元融资需求的落实工作，致力于为企业提供持续、稳定的金融支持，彻底化解其资金难题。 值得一提的是，在帮助企业缓解资金困难的同时，县科经局也持续推进"企业进规"培育工作，积极引导和支持企业实现规模化发展。目前，湖北鑫五湖纸 业有限公司的进规资料已正式提交至省统计局，标志着该企业在科经局的精准服务下，不仅克服了短期经营困难，更在长远发展道路上迈出关键一 步。"进规"工作是县科经局服务企业成长、助推产业升级的重要任务之一，此次鑫五湖纸业的申报进展，也充分体现了科经局在企业全生命周期服务中的 融会贯通和主动作为。 据悉，今年6月，湖北鑫五湖纸业有限公司面临股东突然撤资的突发状况，导致企业资金链骤然紧张，运转承压。县科经局王新征同志在获悉企业困境 后，第一时间带队深入企业，实地了解具体情况与迫切需求。 针对企业"急、频、快"的融资特点，王新征主任当即牵头对接湖北银行，突出"迅速"二字，全力协调推动信用贷款解决方案。通过高效的沟通协调与精准 的对接服务，银行方面快 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - **Cotton**: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - **Sugar**: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - **Paper Pulp**: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - **Jujube 2601**: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - **Sugar 2601**: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - **Paper Pulp 2511**: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - **Double - Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - **Cotton 2601**: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - **Export Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]

2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 行情走势 02 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升0.87%，本周增幅环比收窄0.45个百分 点。个别停机产线复产，供应端压力增加，但下游需求未见明显好装，经销商备库仍偏谨慎，纸企库存暂无明显去化。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在50.12%，环比上升1.90个百分点，本周趋势由降转 升。周内山东地区个别规模产线复产，叠加河南地区部分纸厂开工提升，行业开工负荷高于上周水平。 3. ...

金信期货纸浆、双胶纸日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/11 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 双胶纸基本面分析 基本情况 ①价格：本期双胶纸企业均价偏弱整理，70g双胶纸企业含税均价为4785.7元/吨，环比降幅1.2%。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 ②供应端：本期双胶纸产量19.5万吨，较上期减少1.0万吨，降幅4.9%，产能利用率52.9%，较上期 下降2.7%。行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，部分新增装置生产趋稳，行业货源供应有所 增量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期。 ③成本端：针叶浆阔叶浆横盘，成本支撑有限。 ④需求端：经销商延续谨慎备库心理，下游印厂社会面接单一般，部分成交存在商谈空间，整体需 求偏刚需。 【策略】停产企业暂未完全恢复胶版纸排产，行业盈利情况承压，个别产线或有检修安排，预期下 周双胶纸行业供应增加有限。基本面偏弱+价格低位，建议震荡偏弱对待。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the price of offset printing paper is in a low - level shock. The trend strength of double - offset paper is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, 70g Huaxia Taiyang, and 70g Benbai Mudan remained unchanged at 4550, 4800, 4800, and 4550 yuan/ton respectively on September 10, 2025, compared to the previous day. In the Guangdong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunbao, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang also remained stable at 4500, 4650, and 4750 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - tax and after - tax costs and profits of offset printing paper remained unchanged on September 10, 2025. The pre - tax cost was 5046 yuan/ton, the pre - tax gross profit was - 228 yuan/ton, the after - tax cost was 4638 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit was - 374 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures and Basis**: The closing prices of OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF were 4208 and 4218 respectively, with a 1 - 3 spread of - 10. The basis in the Shandong market for Tianyang - 01 and Mudan - 01 was 342, and in the Guangdong market, the basis for Tianyang - 01 was 292 [1]. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4750 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the price of some ben - white double - offset paper was in the range of 4300 - 4600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day. Large - scale paper mills were operating normally, while small and medium - sized mills adjusted production flexibly. Dealers maintained stable prices and were cautious about inventory, and downstream printing factories had average procurement demand [2]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper in the Guangdong market was 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the price of ben - white double - offset paper was 4500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Paper mills' quotes were stable, dealers' inventory was rational, and printing factories' orders were limited, resulting in a general trading atmosphere [3][4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of double - offset paper is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - August CPI year-on-year growth is -0.4%, with a month-on-month change of 0.0%[10] - August PPI year-on-year growth is -2.9%, with a month-on-month increase to 0.0%[10] - Core CPI year-on-year improved significantly to 0.9% compared to the same period in 2024[15] Group 2: Impact of Policies - The effects of the anti-involution policy are beginning to show in the August PPI data, with mining industrial prices recovering for three consecutive months[22] - Prices in the black chain have stabilized, with coal mining and washing industry increasing by 2.8% month-on-month[22] - The rise in bulk commodity prices has positively impacted downstream manufacturing industries, with factory prices showing a month-on-month recovery of -0.05%[22] Group 3: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices, particularly pork and eggs, are the main drag on CPI, contributing -0.81% to the index[13] - Pork prices contributed -0.29% to CPI, while other food items contributed -0.51%[13] - The demand for pork is expected to recover in September, potentially lifting prices from their current low[15] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, and consumer recovery momentum may not meet expectations[30] - The sustainability of price increases in bulk commodities and their impact on downstream industries will be closely monitored[28]

胶版印刷纸上市首日点评 新品种上市点评 9月10号，胶版印刷纸（简称双胶纸）上市首日,上海交易所公布的胶版印刷纸期货合约上市挂牌基准价为 4218元/吨，涵盖合约OP2601、OP2602、OP2603、OP2604、OP2605、OP2606、OP2607、OP2608，截至收盘各个合 约涨跌不一。截至收盘，双胶纸指数的持仓为2945手，成交量21850手，其中主力2601合约的持仓量为2610手， 持仓和成交表现一般。 双胶纸的基本面总体偏弱,近几年供需整体呈现过剩的状态。文化纸产能持续投放,未来产能投放或达到 峰值,供给的过剩的压力仍将持续释放,短期暂无新增停产检修计划,山东地区前期停机生产线计划复产。各 家纸厂的双胶纸的成本范围较大,因使用纸浆原料配比问题、是否具有自备浆厂等,再加上用电成本的差异 (是否具有自备电厂)。目前双胶纸的成本范围在4000-5000元/吨左右,目前市场统厂出货最低价在4200-4300 元/吨，考虑到未来偏弱的基本面，接货方更倾向于期货贴水状态下去接货。关于盘面的交割标的，下游用户出 版社或更多通过季节性招标来采购,保证产品符合自身使用需求,由于基本面预期偏弱,终端对于接货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For double - offset paper, with weak fundamentals and low prices, it is recommended to treat it with a weak - oscillating outlook. For pulp futures, a short - selling on rallies approach is suggested [6][13] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Double - Offset Paper - **Price**: The average enterprise price of double - offset paper was weakly adjusted. The tax - inclusive average price of 70g double - offset paper was 4,785.7 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decline of 1.2% [3] - **Supply**: The output was 195,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (4.9% decline) from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 52.9%, a 2.7% drop from the previous period. Although the industry's profitability was low and there was production conversion, new installations increased the supply [4] - **Cost**: The prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were flat, providing limited cost support [5] - **Demand**: Dealers were cautious in stockpiling. Downstream printing factories had average orders, and the overall demand was mainly for essential needs [5] - **Inventory**: The production enterprise inventory was 1.196 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. The inventory continued a slight upward trend and was at a multi - year high [7] - **Strategy**: As some suspended production enterprises had not fully resumed production and the industry's profitability was under pressure, it was expected that the supply increase next week would be limited [6] Pulp Futures - **Basic Situation**: The price of Silverleaf pulp in Shandong dropped. The spot price was stable, but downstream procurement demand did not improve. The industry operating rate remained low, and the support at the 5,000 - point level was weakening [13] - **主力动向**: The short - side main force reduced positions, which was bullish; the long - side main force of double - offset paper reduced positions, which was bearish [16]

Group 1 - The paper industry stocks experienced a rise in early trading, with Lee & Man Paper (02314) up 5.17% to HKD 3.05, Nine Dragons Paper (02689) up 4.63% to HKD 5.88, and Chenming Paper (01812) up 4.6% to HKD 0.91 [1] - Major paper manufacturers, including Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper, have announced price increases for certain products starting in early September [1] - Since August, domestic paper manufacturers have implemented multiple rounds of price hikes, indicating a trend towards rising prices in the industry [1] Group 2 - According to Industrial Securities, as the fourth quarter approaches the traditional peak season, both pulp and paper prices are expected to continue rising, supported by anti-involution policies [1] - Huashan Securities previously noted that under the national "anti-involution" backdrop and supply-side structural reforms, the packaging paper industry may see the exit of outdated production capacity, improving supply-demand balance and driving up paper prices, which would enhance profitability for paper companies [1]