Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in navigating the cyclical nature of the paper industry, particularly in response to rising operational costs and fluctuating demand [4][6][10]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes, leading to significant pressure on margins due to rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp and waste paper [10][11]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, forcing companies like Nine Dragons to adjust prices frequently to maintain market share [13][14]. - In July, the average price of waste paper decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while corrugated paper saw a decline of 1.41%, indicating that the reduction in raw material costs is not sufficient to alleviate profit pressures [15][16]. Group 2: Market Recovery and Strategy - Zhang Yin has been proactive in expanding production capacity and diversifying product offerings, focusing on high-end products to avoid price wars in the low-end market [36][39]. - Nine Dragons reported a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 11.4 million tons, with revenue nearing 33.46 billion RMB, marking a recovery from previous lows [38]. - The company is investing heavily in capacity expansion, with projects in Guangxi and Hubei expected to increase annual production capacity significantly, aiming for a total capacity of 8.19 million tons of fiber raw materials and 25.37 million tons of paper [43][46]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Outlook - For the fiscal year 2023, Nine Dragons experienced a loss of 2.38 billion RMB, the first loss in 17 years, but has since seen improvements in demand and profitability [33][34]. - The total assets of Nine Dragons reached 143.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, with a significant portion attributed to property and equipment investments [47]. - The company anticipates that government initiatives to boost consumption will support demand in the packaging paper sector, with some analysts suggesting that the industry may be at a cyclical bottom [50][51].

综述 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 本周胶版印刷纸观点：震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 国产方面，本周，国内双胶纸行业产量为166.9万吨，产能利用率为49.7%； 进口方面，5月，国内双胶纸进口量为1.5万吨； | | 需求 | 内需方面，本周国内双胶纸销量为175.5万吨； 出口方面，5月，国内双胶纸出口量为7.44万吨； | | 观点 | 本周趋势由稳转跌；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4708元/吨，环比下跌1.40%，本周跌幅环比扩大1.07个百分点。影响市场价格走势的主要 因素有：第一， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price adjustments made by Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in response to rising operational costs and the challenges faced in the paper industry, which is characterized by cyclical fluctuations and pressure on profit margins [2][3][8]. Price Adjustments - On July 15, Nine Dragons Paper implemented a price increase of 30 yuan per ton for corrugated paper at its Dongguan and Quanzhou bases [2]. - This marks the third price adjustment in the past half month, indicating a strategy of gradual price increases amid fluctuating market conditions [3][5]. Industry Context - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes. Key raw materials like wood pulp and waste paper are subject to price volatility and supply instability [8][9]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a challenging environment where price adjustments are necessary to maintain market share [11]. Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's market capitalization has dropped over 70% from its peak, currently hovering around 16 billion HKD [4]. - In the 2024 fiscal year, the company reported a revenue of 33.46 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% increase in gross profit year-on-year [33]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhang Yin is focusing on expanding production capacity and moving towards high-end products to avoid price wars in the low-end market [30]. - The company is also investing in upstream integration to enhance raw material supply capabilities, which constitute about 60% of total production costs [35]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a potential market recovery around September, with seasonal demand expected to increase during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival periods [19][20]. - Nine Dragons is expanding its production capacity significantly, with new projects expected to come online in the second quarter of this year, aiming for a total design capacity of 819 million tons of fiber raw materials and 2,537 million tons of paper production [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, is adjusting its pricing strategy in response to rising operational costs and market conditions, with recent price increases for corrugated paper indicating a cautious approach to navigating a challenging market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy - Nine Dragons Paper has implemented a new round of price increases, raising corrugated paper prices by 30 yuan per ton at its Dongguan and Quanzhou bases [2]. - This marks the third price adjustment in the past half month, reflecting ongoing pressures from rising operational costs [2][5]. - The company is currently in a "testing" phase for price increases, as the overall market remains stagnant [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The paper industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes [4]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a challenging balance for the company [4][5]. - The average price of waste paper has decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while corrugated paper prices have dropped by 1.41%, indicating pressure on industry profits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's average selling price for products is projected to be approximately 2930 yuan per ton for the second half of 2024, down 4% year-on-year and over 20% from 2021 [8]. - The company reported a significant loss of 2.38 billion yuan in the 2023 fiscal year, marking its first loss in 17 years [16]. - Despite challenges, the company has seen some recovery, with a 1.2 times year-on-year increase in net profit to 669 million yuan in the latest reporting period [20]. Group 4: Expansion and Investment - Zhang Yin is focusing on expanding production capacity and enhancing raw material supply capabilities, with plans to increase total design capacity to 819 million tons of fiber raw materials and 2537 million tons of paper production [22][25]. - Significant investments are being made in high-end products and upstream integration, including the acquisition of four integrated pulp and paper factories in the U.S. [22][26]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 143.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a substantial portion of the increase attributed to property, plant, and equipment [27]. Group 5: Debt and Future Outlook - As a result of its expansion efforts, Nine Dragons Paper's total liabilities have risen to 143.3 billion yuan, with a debt ratio exceeding 65% [28]. - The company is optimistic about future demand in the packaging paper sector, anticipating that government initiatives to boost consumption will support the industry [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Rural Revitalization Foundation has been recognized for its outstanding contributions to ecological construction in Guangdong, promoting a "Green Guangdong" initiative through community engagement and corporate partnerships [2][3][4]. Group 1: Foundation's Achievements - The foundation has collaborated with 385 enterprises and over 37,000 participants in various "Green Guangdong" activities, raising more than 120 million yuan in donations and planting over 1 million trees across 15 cities [5][6][7]. - The foundation has launched a provincial public service platform to enhance public participation in ecological construction, with 8 projects attracting donations totaling approximately 35.4 million yuan and involving 42,000 participants [17][18]. Group 2: Corporate Involvement - The foundation has mobilized corporate resources, raising approximately 69.4 million yuan from companies like Guangdong Energy Group and others to implement "Green Guangdong" support projects, improving the greening levels of over 100 villages [36][38]. - Notable projects include the creation of green landscape belts and eco-friendly recreational areas, which have enhanced local tourism and increased residents' incomes [40][41]. Group 3: Seedling and Resource Management - The foundation is establishing high-standard seedling reserves with a target of raising 20 million yuan by the end of 2023, aiming to cultivate 997,000 quality seedlings of 53 varieties for ecological projects [55][56][58]. - The innovative model of "government-led, public platform, and corporate participation" has been adopted for seedling reserve construction, ensuring a sustainable supply of quality seedlings for long-term greening efforts [61][63]. Group 4: Future Directions - The foundation aims to continue its commitment to public welfare and national strategies, exploring more pathways for social participation in ecological construction, ensuring that the "Green Guangdong" initiative remains a collective effort [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong paper stocks is driven by a combination of falling raw material prices, improved demand, and low valuation levels, indicating a potential recovery in the paper industry [3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - From June 20 to July 14, paper stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant increase, with an average rise of approximately 15%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [1][4]. - Notable companies such as Sunshine Paper and Nine Dragons Paper saw monthly gains of 19% and nearly 12%, respectively [1][3]. - The paper sector recorded a cumulative increase of 13.73% during this period, with a trading volume of 2.520 billion shares and a total transaction value exceeding 5.6 billion HKD [4][5]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in international wood pulp prices, with European softwood pulp prices dropping about 15% since the beginning of the year, has positively impacted paper companies' profit margins [3][10]. - Major companies have raised their factory prices for cultural paper by 300-500 HKD per ton since June, reflecting a strong demand recovery and low inventory levels in downstream sectors [3][10]. - The combination of lower costs and successful price increases is expected to enhance profit expectations for paper companies in the upcoming quarters [10][11]. Group 3: Demand Signals - Seasonal demand for educational materials during the summer is expected to boost printing needs, while packaging paper benefits from recovering orders in consumer electronics and home appliances [11]. - Export performance has been strong, with a 34% year-on-year increase in corrugated paper exports from January to May, particularly to emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The paper sector in Hong Kong is currently undervalued, with dynamic P/E ratios for companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper below their five-year averages [11]. - Recent inflows from southbound funds into leading paper companies indicate a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding the sector's recovery [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Prices**: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - **Pulp Import Volume in May**: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - **European Port Inventory in May**: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term expected to maintain a volatile pattern, Brent to be watched in the range of $68.5 - 71/barrel, medium - term bearish [2]. - Asphalt: High - level volatility, cost - end remains strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, price expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be weak, with a decline in total supply, weak combustion demand and weakening chemical demand [6][7][8]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand support but is affected by supply and spot price, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - PX: Expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand [13]. - PTA: Expected to fluctuate, with an increase in inventory accumulation expectation and price under pressure [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to fluctuate, with supply recovery and inventory accumulation expectation in August - September, but cost support from coal prices [16][17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with production cuts planned by major manufacturers and weak terminal demand [18]. - PR (bottle chips): Expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term, with processing fees strengthening and production cuts gradually implemented [21]. - Styrene: Expected to fluctuate, with the supply - demand pattern weakening in the third quarter and price under pressure [25]. - Plastic PP: Medium - term prices are bearish, short - term prices are volatile due to cost push [26][27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a supply - demand surplus pattern and price is under pressure, but short - term watch due to strong black market [31]. - Caustic soda: Short - term expected to fluctuate strongly, pay attention to liquid chlorine price and spot [31]. - Glass: Expected to fluctuate, with the price having no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors [33]. - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate, with supply and demand factors affecting the price and overall sentiment being positive [35][36]. - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, pay attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [38][39]. - Urea: Short - term strong, but be cautious when chasing high due to weak domestic demand and export restrictions [41][42]. - Log: Near - month contracts are in the delivery verification stage, recommend watching, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads [43]. - Double - offset paper: In a supply - demand weak situation, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Corrugated paper: In a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Pulp: SP main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [47][48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: RU main 09 contract to watch, NR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [50][51]. - Butadiene rubber: BR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the BR2509 - NR2509 spread [54]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.38, up $0.05/barrel, + 0.07%; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.19, up $0.04/barrel, + 0.06%; SC main contract 2508 rose 5.8 to 515.7 yuan/barrel, night - session rose 4.4 to 520.1 yuan/barrel; Brent main - second - line spread was $1.19/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there may be a cease - fire in Gaza; Trump announced tariffs on products from multiple countries [1]. - Logic Analysis: Near - month spreads are strong, overseas diesel cracking spreads are high, refinery profits are recovering, short - term balance is maintained, and long - term supply surplus pressure is not fully priced [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - trading for single - side, watch the Brent range of $68.5 - 71/barrel; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable for arbitrage; watch for options [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3627 points (+ 0.11%), BU2512 night - session closed at 3436 points (- 0.12%); spot prices in different regions were reported [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with supply being sufficient and demand being weak [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Oil prices are volatile at a high level, cost - end is strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, inventory is stable, single - side price is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation, and cracking spreads are expected to remain high [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side high - level volatility; asphalt - crude oil spread is stable for arbitrage; watch for options [5][7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 night - session closed at 4192 (+ 0.34%), PG2509 night - session closed at 4091 (+ 0.34%); spot prices in different regions were reported [5]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with overall supply - demand being weak [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased last week, demand is weak in both combustion and chemical fields, and inventory decreased. The overall fundamentals are loose [6][7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side weak operation [8]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.304 (+ 0.25%), HH closed at 3.211 (- 3.77%), JKM closed at 12.5 (+ 0.32%) [8]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand is strong, LNG export increased, prices are expected to rise; European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: HH single - side buy on dips, TTF single - side volatility [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2964 (- 0.60%), LU09 night - session closed at 3686 (- 0.30%); Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [10]. - Related News: South Sudan issued a tender, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and Singapore spot - window transactions were reported [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, supply is expected to increase, and demand has seasonal support; low - sulfur supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch; watch the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6724 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), night - session closed at 6752 (+ 28/+ 0.42%); spot prices and PXN changed [13]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [13]. - Logic Analysis: Social inventory is low, supply is tight, Asian PX operating rate declined, and downstream demand is increasing [13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4718 (+ 8/+ 0.17%), night - session closed at 4732 (+ 14/+ 0.30%); spot basis changed [14]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [15]. - Logic Analysis: Futures fluctuated, spot basis weakened, domestic TA load increased slightly, downstream polyester load decreased, and inventory accumulation expectation increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4283 (+ 16/+ 0.37%), night - session closed at 4308 (+ 25/+ 0.58%); spot basis and prices were reported [15][16]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately; some overseas and domestic plants restarted [16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to recover, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, but coal prices provide cost support [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract day - session closed at 6528 (+ 10/+ 0.15%), night - session closed at 6552 (+ 24/+ 0.37%); spot prices in different regions decreased [17][18]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [18]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants cut production, processing margins expanded, terminal demand is weak, and major manufacturers still have production - cut plans in July [18]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [19]. PR (bottle chips) - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5880 (+ 14/+ 0.24%), night - session closed at 5892 (+ 12/+ 0.20%); spot market trading was okay [20]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable [21]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees strengthened, production cuts were gradually implemented, and it is expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term [21]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract day - session closed at 6070 (+ 139/+ 2.34%), night - session closed at 6140 (+ 70/+ 1.15%); EB2508 main contract day - session closed at 7350 (+ 74/+ 1.02%), night - session closed at 7437 (+ 87/+ 1.18%); spot prices and basis changed [22][24]. - Related News: East China pure - benzene port inventory decreased, and styrene East China main - port inventory increased [24]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene supply is abundant, demand is expected to increase; styrene supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [25]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; long pure - benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; watch for options [26]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices in some regions declined, and PP spot prices in different regions changed [26][27]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [27]. - Logic Analysis: There is large production - capacity release pressure in the third quarter, terminal demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [27]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side medium - term bearish, short - term volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [28]. PVC Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices increased, and caustic soda spot prices in different regions changed [28][29][30]. - Related News: Product prices in different regions changed, and some chlorine - alkali enterprises adjusted their loads [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has production - capacity release pressure, domestic demand is weak, and exports face risks; caustic soda has a peak - season expectation, but new production capacity will be released in July - August [31]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda single - side short - term volatile and strong; PVC single - side short - term watch, medium - term bearish; watch for arbitrage and options [32]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton (10/0.98%), night - session closed at 1048 yuan/ton (13/1.26%); 9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - Related News: The domestic float - glass market was stable, and some regions planned to increase prices [32]. - Logic Analysis: Glass prices were strong, but there is no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [33]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, glass volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [33][34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (16/1.4%), night - session closed at 1206 yuan (12/1.0%); SA9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions changed [34]. - Related News: The domestic soda - ash market was weak, and some enterprises adjusted prices; photovoltaic "anti - involution" and other news were reported [34][35]. - Logic Analysis: Soda ash prices were strong, supply may decline, demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and profits are shrinking; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, soda ash volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - Market Review: Futures prices rose, and spot prices in different regions were reported [37]. - Related News: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - Logic Analysis: International plant operating rates increased, imports are expected to recover, supply is loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and weakness; watch for arbitrage; sell call options [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures were strong, and spot prices increased [40]. - Related News: China's urea enterprise inventory decreased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants were under maintenance, demand is affected by domestic and international factors, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term but be cautious when chasing high [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side short - term strong; watch for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [42]. Log - Market Review: 9 - month contract prices declined; some radiation - pine log prices changed [42][43]. - Related News: New Zealand port log departures and sea - freight rates changed; there were delivery intentions and pairings [42][43]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is weak, and the scale difference supports the disk; pay attention to delivery details [43]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch for near - month contracts; watch the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage; watch for options [43][44][45]. Double - offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable, and prices in different regions were reported [45]. - Related News: Some production lines in East China were shut down, and paper - enterprise inventory pressure was relieved [45]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are weak, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper market prices were stable, and some regions adjusted prices; raw - material prices were stable [46]. - Related News: Market sentiment was divided, and some paper mills adjusted prices [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures were strong, and spot prices in different regions changed [47]. - Related News: Shandong Sun Paper will build a pulp mill [48]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for SP single - side [48]. - Trading Strategy: SP main 09 contract try to go long; reduce and watch the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [48]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract rose, NR main 09 contract rose, and BR main 09 contract rose; spot prices in different regions were reported [48][49][50]. - Related News: June national passenger - car retail sales increased [50]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for the spread and single - side [50]. - Trading

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June, the prices of pulp and paper have stabilized after a decline, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices showing weakness during the off-season [3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices and costs have stabilized with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. As of June 27, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [5][8] - Supply and demand are expected to improve marginally as the publishing order cycle approaches, although the overall demand remains weak [10] - Profitability is stable as the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper was 1.81%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from May [21] White Cardboard - Prices initially increased before declining, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4088 CNY/ton, a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease year-on-year [24] - Supply and demand are expected to widen, with a forecast of increased production and limited demand during the traditional off-season [28] - Profitability has improved due to a decrease in costs, with the gross margin rising by 1.46 percentage points from May [37] Boxboard Paper - The market price for boxboard paper has decreased, with an average price of 3503 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [40] - The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to increased supply pressure and weak demand [44] - The profitability of the industry is under pressure due to rising costs and declining prices [40] Pulp - External prices for pulp are declining, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist. The new external prices for needle pulp are set at 720 USD/ton and for bleached pulp at 620 USD/ton [6][8] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to optimize raw material procurement costs [6][8] Waste Paper - Prices have fluctuated, with overall supply and demand remaining weak. The market is experiencing a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand [4][6]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月6日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周双胶纸市场价格延续跌势。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5125元/吨，环比下跌0.16%，本 周跌幅环比收窄0.42个百分点；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4791元/吨，环比下跌0.08%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.46个百分点。影响市 场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初多数纸厂报盘趋稳，个别压力仍存，出货价格小幅下调；第二，经销商出货节奏仍然偏 ...