Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Thailand's economic activity is showing mixed signals, with stable private consumption and strong exports countered by a sharp decline in private investment due to rising uncertainty [1][2] - Goods exports have shown robust growth, particularly to the US and China, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9 percent in February, marking the highest growth in four months [4][12] - The tourism sector is experiencing a decline in arrivals, particularly from China, which fell by 40 percent year-on-year, reaching only 35 percent of pre-pandemic levels [3] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Private consumption expanded modestly, supported by fiscal stimulus, but high household debt and tighter credit standards are constraining spending [2] - The private investment index contracted sharply, reflecting declines in consumer confidence and ongoing weakness in manufacturing output [2] Exports - Goods exports maintained double-digit growth, driven by strong shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid global trade uncertainties [4][12] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN have started to contract, indicating potential challenges in these markets [12] Tourism - Tourist arrivals in February declined by 6.9 percent year-on-year, with arrivals from major sources surpassing pre-pandemic levels except for China [3] - The recent earthquake may further dampen tourist confidence and arrivals in the coming months [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has declined for three consecutive months, with headline inflation at 0.8 percent in March, below the Bank of Thailand's target range [14] - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent to alleviate household debt pressures amid tightening credit standards [14] Fiscal Position - The central government's fiscal deficit widened to 6.7 percent of GDP in the first five months of FY 2025, driven by increased spending [15] - Fiscal revenue reached its highest level since 2020, but spending growth outpaced revenue gains [15] Financial Markets - The Thai baht depreciated by 1.5 percent in early April, influenced by global market risk-off sentiment despite a strong current account surplus [16][24] - The current account surplus rose to USD 5.5 billion, the highest since the pandemic, driven by a stronger goods trade balance [24][25]

Group 1 - The consumption market is experiencing a surge in activity during the "May Day" holiday, with vibrant market supply and optimized consumer services across the country [1][3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reports sufficient grain and oil stocks, with a stable supply of essential products like meat, eggs, milk, fruits, and seafood during the holiday [3] - Major cities like Beijing and Guangdong are preparing for increased demand by stocking essential goods at 2-3 times the usual supply levels [3] Group 2 - In Jiangsu's Yancheng, there is a high demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones and air conditioners, with promotional activities like trade-in offers being popular [5] - Jiangsu province is distributing 2 million yuan in automotive consumption vouchers, particularly favoring new energy vehicle purchases [5] - Various regions are promoting trade-in subsidies for household appliances, with Ningxia planning 24 themed events and a subsidy fund of no less than 40 million yuan [7] Group 3 - New cultural and tourism consumption scenarios are being introduced, such as the "Night Guangxi" service consumption season, which includes a consumption map for tourists [9] - In Chongqing's Dazu District, new night tourism experiences are being created with vibrant performances and food stalls [11] - Beijing has launched the "Breeze Terrace Plan," focusing on unique terrace experiences and exclusive discounts in several commercial areas, running until September [13]