2025 年 12 月 25 日 尿素：中期中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,735 | 1,721 | 1 4 -11425 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,732 | 1,713 | 1 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,721 | 178,146 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 187,367 | 179,049 | 8318 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 10,432 | 10,532 | -100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 577,437 | 610,495 | -33058 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | -5 | -1 | - 4 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -175 | -161 | -14 | | | | 东光- ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：库存去化幅度加深 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。期货连续两日上涨的影响，现货挺价明 显，今日工厂多提价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多 在 1620-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，河北及山东部分工厂报价偏高端。 基本面来看，目前日产 19 万吨，宽松压力没有缓解，气头日产偏高于历年同 期，限气停产未明显压低产量。复合肥成本居于高位，终端发运尚可，但受环 保限制，下游开工有影响，关注后续开工数据情况。前期保供稳价专题会议过 后，预计冬储采购原料及生产端将有序平稳运行，其他工业需求虽终端逐步进 入淡季但依然有韧性支撑。本期库存去化幅度增大，主要系近期上下游的装置 均有部分减产，目前同步去年偏低 45.61 万吨。综合来看，前期印标引起外盘 上涨后，国内盘面情绪再受刺激上行，叠加出口政策传闻影响，连续上涨两 日，但目前无明确官方政策，谨慎行情变化，上有高位日产压制，下游需求韧 性托底，尿素多空博弈。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1721 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 ...

Group 1 - The company currently does not hold or directly own any phosphate mining resources [1] - The phosphate-related business is operated by enterprises controlled by the company's controlling shareholder, and it does not fall under the listed company's business scope [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the domestic futures market for urea, with the main contract rising by 1.52% to 1739.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - The urea market is influenced by rumors regarding new export quotas, which could lead to a rapid decline in prices if proven false [2] - Production from gas-based enterprises is decreasing slightly due to ongoing maintenance, impacting daily output [2] - Demand remains resilient as winter storage continues, with factories primarily producing high-nitrogen compound fertilizers, providing some support for urea despite a lack of upward driving force [2] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing but remain high compared to the same period over the past five years, with factory inventory at 117.97 thousand tons (down 5.45 thousand tons), port inventory at 13.8 thousand tons (up 1.5 thousand tons), and inventory in Guangxi and Guangdong at 14.6 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] Group 4 - The market focus is on the upcoming printing standards and changes in China's export policies, with rumors of new export quotas significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - Until new favorable factors are confirmed, the market is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend, with attention on the results of printing standards and export expectations that may create short-term trading opportunities [2] - It is also important to monitor changes in urea supply levels, the atmosphere of spot transactions, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [2]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 尿素：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 标 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 收盘价 | 项目名称 （元/吨） | 昨日数据 1,721 | 前日数据 1,698 | 变动幅度 2 3 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,713 | 1,700 | 1 3 | | 尿素主力 | | | 成交量 （手） | 178,146 | 95,294 | 82852 | | 期货市场 | （05合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 179,049 | 169,174 | 9875 | | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 10,532 | 10,881 | -349 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 610,495 | 323,993 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yaqi International (000893) has shown a slight increase, with significant retail investor inflow despite net outflows from institutional and speculative funds [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 23, 2025, Yaqi International closed at 47.29 yuan, up 0.68%, with a turnover rate of 0.91% and a trading volume of 73,800 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 347 million yuan [1]. - The net outflow of institutional funds was 44.36 million yuan, accounting for 12.77% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 52.82 million yuan, representing 15.21% of the total [1][2]. Group 2: Recent Fund Flow Overview - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced varying fund flows, with notable retail inflows on December 23 and December 22, while institutional funds have consistently shown outflows [2]. - On December 19, 2025, the stock recorded a significant institutional net inflow of 63.18 million yuan, which was the only day in the past five days with positive institutional activity [2]. Group 3: Company Financials and Industry Position - Yaqi International's total market capitalization is 43.698 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 13.061 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.363 billion yuan, ranking 4th, 5th, and 5th respectively in the fertilizer industry [3]. - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 55.76% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 163.01% [3]. - The gross margin stands at 58.91%, significantly higher than the industry average of 20.04%, indicating strong profitability [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Daily Report on December 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated higher, closing at 1721 (+21/+1.24%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable with general trading. Prices in different regions were: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 23, the daily production of the urea industry was 18.98 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.38 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.49%, a 0.62% increase from 77.87% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Conditions: Mainstream factory prices were stable, market sentiment cooled, and trading weakened. Different regions had different situations. Shandong's prices were weakly stable, Henan's prices followed the decline, and the delivery area's prices were firm [5] - Supply: Domestic gas - fired plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained high. India tendered again for a total of 150 tons with a February 2nd shipping date, but the impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer in the Central and Northeast regions was stable. In Henan, environmental protection led to large - scale shutdowns until the end of the month, and overall demand for compound fertilizer slowed. The progress of off - season storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement would slow down [5] - Outlook: In the short term, with the impact of the Indian tender fading and limited export quotas, the downstream resisted high prices, and the trading was weak. In the medium term, the supply - demand fundamentals were still relatively loose, and after price increases in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. The market rumor of export news improved trading in some low - price areas, but overall, a short - selling strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the positive factors for urea are limited, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. The supply pressure remains due to the slowdown in the reduction of gas - fired plants, and the daily output is 190,000 tons. The winter storage of compound fertilizers provides demand support, but the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices restricts the upward movement of prices. The inventory is mainly being depleted in Northeast and North China for winter storage, while there is a trend of inventory accumulation in other areas. The market has limited bullish factors and mainly relies on winter storage and exports. The futures market shows a technical rebound, waiting for a correction [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rose during the day. The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1704 yuan/ton, closed at 1721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The trading volume increased, with the long position increasing by 6573 hands and the short position increasing by 11684 hands. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 23, 2025, was 10,532, a decrease of 349 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The spot market price is stable, mainly focused on fulfilling previous orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1610 - 1700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end and Hebei's at the higher end [1][4]. 2. Fundamental Tracking - The basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. Taking the Henan region as the benchmark, the basis of the May contract was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [7]. - On December 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.04% [10].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——地产"优等生"受困20亿元到期债务，首次债务展期仍在博弈，明年还有超 百亿元公开债到期 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，云图控股（SZ 002539，收盘价：11.6元）12月23日晚间发布公告称，成都云图控股股份 有限公司于2025年12月22日召开第七届董事会第五次会议，审议通过了《关于2026年使用闲置资金进行 投资理财的议案》，同意公司及子公司在确保正常经营和资金安全的前提下，使用不超过15亿元人民币 的闲置自有资金进行投资理财。 2025年1至6月份，云图控股的营业收入构成为：化肥行业占比63.35%，贸易占比18.85%，化工行业占 比12.57%，其他行业占比5.23%。 截至发稿，云图控股市值为140亿元。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——地产"优等生"受困20亿元到期债务，首次债务展期仍在博弈，明年还有超 百亿元公开债到期 （记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，云图控股的营业收入构成为：化肥行业占比63.35%，贸易占比18.85%，化工行业占 比12.57%，其他行业占比5.23%。 截至发稿，云图控股市值为140亿元。 每经AI快讯，云图控股（SZ 002539，收盘价：11.6元）12月23日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第五次 董事会会议于2025年12月22日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于召开2026年第一次临时股东会的议 案》等文件。 ...