Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down. The spot price of urea is rising steadily, and the order - receiving situation has slowed down. There is no pressure to cut prices due to sufficient pre - orders. The daily production of urea has little change, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand is more cautious than the industrial demand. The agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remains low, and the inventory has increased. Although the industrial demand is weak, the export orders are still being shipped, and the inventory has been continuously reduced. The international price is rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment is also high. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The intraday trend of the market was low - opening and low - going, with an oscillating decline. The spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The daily production of urea changed little, with some previously overhauled devices resuming production this week, and it is expected that both overhaul and resumption will occur next week with a small daily production fluctuation. The agricultural demand was more cautious than the industrial demand, and the agricultural demand in Northeast and North China is expected to end this month, followed by a window period. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, and the inventory increased. Although the industrial demand was weak, the export orders were still being shipped, and the inventory was continuously reduced. The international price was rising, and the domestic urea market sentiment was also high. The short - term trend was mainly oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the export policy [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - In the futures market, the urea main 2509 contract opened at 1776 yuan/ton, with an intraday weak oscillation, and finally closed at 1773 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The trading volume decreased by 10,443 lots to 197,786 lots. Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,313 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,589 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed, such as Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increasing by 3,696 lots and Guotai Junan's net short positions increasing by 2,246 lots [2]. - In the spot market, the spot price of urea rose steadily, and the order - receiving situation slowed down. There was no pressure to cut prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. Basis Tracking - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation rose, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared with the previous trading day, reaching 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [7]. Supply Data - On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.63% [10].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 730 million to 930 million yuan for the current reporting period, representing a year-on-year increase of 170% to 244% compared to 269.99 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be between 730 million and 930 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 172% to 247% from 267.96 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are anticipated to be between 0.80 yuan and 1.02 yuan, compared to 0.29 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Increase - The increase in operating performance is attributed to several factors: stable production of potassium fertilizer, with production volume rising compared to the previous year [1] - The company has implemented a flexible and diversified sales strategy, focusing on both international and domestic markets, leading to increased sales volume [1] - The rise in both international and domestic potassium fertilizer prices has contributed to higher sales prices and improved gross profit margins for the potassium fertilizer business [1] - Tax incentives have also positively impacted the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 730 million to 930 million yuan, representing a growth of 170% to 244% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is also projected to be between 730 million and 930 million yuan, marking an increase of 172% to 247% year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.8 yuan and 1.02 yuan [1] Business Operations - The sales price of potash fertilizer increased year-on-year during the first half of the year, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The gross profit margin for the potash fertilizer business also saw a year-on-year increase [1] - The company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is expected to rise year-on-year, aided by tax incentives [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock has reached a new low in terms of rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in the fertilizer industry [1] - As of July 11, Yara International's closing price was 32.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 24.09, marking a 683-day low and a total market capitalization of 30.198 billion yuan [1] - The company ranks 18th in the fertilizer industry based on PE ratio, with the industry average at 25.22 and the median at 22.79 [1][2] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride and brine [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a gross profit margin of 54.12% [1] - In terms of capital flow, on July 11, the net inflow of main funds into Yara International was 22.6917 million yuan, with a total inflow of 27.6536 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to promote its bio-based slow-release fertilizer technology as a model for global agricultural sustainability and food security, leveraging the "One Country, One Product" initiative supported by the UN FAO [1][2] Group 1: Technology Development - The company shared a report on the development of bio-based slow-release fertilizer technology, highlighting its latest achievements in research and application [1] - The technology integrates three national science and technology awards in China, emphasizing its environmentally friendly, biodegradable nature, precise nutrient release, high fertilizer efficiency, and reduced labor and fertilizer costs [1] - The technology also incorporates Germany's Schneider Efficiency Technology 2.0, which includes nutrient leakage prevention, plant vaccine technology, and microbial activation technology, improving soil microenvironment and enhancing fertilizer utilization [1] Group 2: Product Development - The company has developed specialized slow-release fertilizer products for over ten crops, including wheat, corn, rice, garlic, banana, and peanut, tailored to support the "One Country, One Product" initiative [1] - These products utilize the award-winning slow-release fertilizer technology and Schneider Efficiency Technology 2.0, aiming to increase crop yield and quality while reducing production costs for farmers [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company has made comprehensive plans for technical support, solution development, and promotion to better support project construction [2] - The goal is to help farmers in project countries increase their income, drive local industry upgrades, and promote a more efficient, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable agricultural food system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The project for ultra-low emissions renovation of Boiler No. 3 at Jilin Petrochemical Fertilizer Plant has been completed and is operational, significantly reducing nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions annually [1][2] Group 1: Project Details - The renovation project was officially started on December 13, 2024, and completed in 190 days, overcoming challenges such as winter construction difficulties and limited working space [2] - The project achieved performance acceptance after 72 hours, with sulfur dioxide emissions at 20 mg/m³, nitrogen oxides at 32 mg/m³, and dust at 7 mg/m³, all exceeding design values by reductions of 34%, 36%, and 30% respectively [2] Group 2: Future Plans - The company plans to apply the successful experience from the renovation of Boiler No. 3 to the upcoming renovations of Boilers No. 1 and No. 2, aiming for all boiler units to achieve ultra-low emissions [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increases dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with a decline in supply due to centralized maintenance and a decrease in daily production. On the demand side, traders are picking up goods for export, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, as domestic agricultural demand nears its end, fundamental pressure is increasing, which restricts the upside of prices. The daily price fluctuations depend on the continuation of spot trading activity and the macro - level drive from the warming of the macro - sentiment in the commodity market [3][4] Summary by Directory Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 253,398 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,645 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the trading value was 900.403 million yuan, an increase of 311.459 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan, up 13 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 57 yuan, up 33 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 23 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between UR09 and UR01 was 44 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea producers changed. Henan Xinlianxin's price was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi's was 1,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu's was 1,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased by 20 yuan to 1,860 yuan/ton and 1,720 yuan/ton respectively. The industry's operating rate was 84.99%, up 0.86 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,760 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease. The inventory of some enterprises increased in Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, while it decreased in Anhui, Hainan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European market will completely stop importing fertilizers from Russia and Belarus by July 1, 2028, due to the EU's tariff policy, marking a significant achievement for Poland as the rotating presidency of the EU [1] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The European Parliament approved a new tariff law on May 22, which imposes a 6.5% basic tariff on fertilizers imported from Russia and Belarus [1] - From 2025 to 2026, an additional tax of 40 to 45 euros per ton will be levied on these fertilizers [1] - A 50% tariff will be applied to Russian and Belarusian agricultural products that have not yet been subject to additional tariffs [1] Group 2: Timeline and Leadership - The new tariffs took effect on July 1 of this year [1] - Poland assumed the rotating presidency of the EU on January 1, replacing Hungary, for a six-month term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion confirms that the procedures for the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders held by Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd. on July 10, 2025, comply with relevant laws, regulations, and the company's articles of association [1][5]. Group 1: Meeting Procedures - The meeting was convened by the company's board of directors, with proper announcements made in various financial publications and on the company's designated information disclosure website [1]. - The meeting was held on July 10, 2025, with specific voting times set for both on-site and online participation [2]. Group 2: Attendance and Voting - A total of 288 participants attended the meeting, representing 196,057,363 valid voting shares, which is 75.4066% of the total voting shares [2][3]. - The voting process combined on-site and online methods, with results being monitored and recorded according to the company's articles of association [3][4]. Group 3: Voting Results - The meeting approved several resolutions, including the election of non-independent and independent directors, with approval rates exceeding 99.69% for most resolutions [4][5]. - The legal opinion asserts that the voting results are legitimate and valid, adhering to all legal and regulatory requirements [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of India's tender import price and volume has boosted the futures and spot prices of urea. The urea production remains at a high level, with the downstream in the peak agricultural demand season and the industrial demand falling short of expectations. The export quota is gradually released, leading to an increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream enterprise inventory [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8][9][15] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [17][20][21] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - sized urea in China, the CFR price of large - sized urea in China, the difference between the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea and the FOB price of China minus 30, the difference between the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price of China, urea export profit, and disk export profit are provided [25][30][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - It contains data on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [45][40][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract is presented [43][46][49]