川观新闻记者 彭瑀珩 来源：川观新闻 【未经授权，严禁转载！联系电话028-86968276】 1月12日，国内商品期货市场开盘迎来强势表现，碳酸锂主力合约直接封死涨停，涨幅9%，报156060 元/吨，两年来首次突破15万元关口。市场观点认为，这一行情与出口退税政策调整引发的下游抢装需 求密切相关。 | 碳酸锂2605 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ic2605 | | | | | | 高 156060 振幅 2.84% 156060 152000 | 昨结 143180 | | 量 65780 持仓 50.88万 | | | 12880 9.00% 开 156060 | 今结 | | 日增 -2076 | | | 相关ETF(?) | 有色ETF大成 2.120 1.63% | | | | | 同在顺 异动解读:取消出口退税,一季度抢出 ... ● × | | | | | | 博诺 | | | | | | 日 日 K 周K 月K 五日 更多 ▼ 分时 | | | | (0) | | 均价:156034 最新:156060 12880 +9% | | ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historical high due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and Iran, with international COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce [3][9] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) has seen significant inflows, with a net subscription of 15 million units and a total of 331 million yuan in the last 10 days, reflecting strong market interest [1][4] Market Performance - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) experienced an intraday price increase of over 2.5%, continuing to set new highs since its listing [1][4] - Key component stocks such as Zhong Rare Metals and Shengxin Lithium Energy have risen over 6% and 4% respectively, while other stocks like Hunan Silver and Shandong Gold have also shown gains of over 2% [1][4] Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Yardeni Research has increased its forecast for gold to $6000 per ounce by the same date, emphasizing macroeconomic concerns rather than a rebound in global economic activity [3][9] - Citic Securities anticipates that various metals, including copper, aluminum, and strategic metals, will continue to see price increases due to loose liquidity and strong structural demand [3][9] Industry Trends - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, allowing for better exposure to the overall sector's performance [4][10] - The current market environment is characterized by a "super cycle" in nonferrous metals, driven by various economic factors and geopolitical risks [4][10]

1月12日，A股主要指数涨跌不一，截至发稿，沪指涨0.26%，深证成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.81%，科创综指涨0.61%。贵金属价格大幅上涨，沪金主力 合约最高触及1031.30元/克，沪银主力合约盘中涨幅超12%，触及20641元/千克的历史新高。 国际金价方面，伦敦金盘中突破4600美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨超2%。 | | | | 9:56 156060 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 9:56 156060 | 20 | | | | | 9:56 156060 | 7 | | 9:00 | | | 15:00 9:57 156060 | 5 | | < V | 锂矿概念 | | E | Q | | | 2033.57 1.36% | | | | | 成份股 | 股幅 | | 资讯 | | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅 ↓ | | 涨跌 | | 大中矿川 | 29.85 | 6.91% | | 1.93 | | 001203 | | | | | | 金圆股份 | 7.00 | 5.90% | | 0.39 | | 000546 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff adjustment is beneficial to the short - term demand of lithium carbonate, and the market will fluctuate strongly [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **2601 Contract** - Closing price: 138,700 yuan, with a change compared to different time points (e.g., +1,700 compared to T - 1) [1] - Volume: 331, showing significant decreases compared to previous periods (e.g., - 323 compared to T - 1) [1] - Open interest: 2,374, with large declines compared to earlier times (e.g., - 1,302 compared to T - 1) [1] - **2605 Contract** - Closing price: 143,420 yuan, with corresponding changes (e.g., - 1,580 compared to T - 1) [1] - Volume: 469,479, with various changes in different time intervals (e.g., - 185,345 compared to T - 1) [1] - Open interest: 510,874, showing some fluctuations (e.g., - 3,593 compared to T - 1) [1] - **Other Data** - Warehouse receipt volume: 25,360 hands, with a change of - 410 compared to T - 1 [1] - Basis data such as spot - 2601, spot - 2605, 2601 - 2605, etc., show different changes [1] - Raw material prices (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) and lithium salt prices (battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc.) all have price changes compared to previous periods [1] - Consumption - related product prices (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, etc.) also have corresponding price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 138,842 yuan/ton, up 1,799 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 140,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 136,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [2] - 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced from the Malibu Guni lithium mine of Hainan Mining arrived at Yangpu Port in Hainan. This marks the company's achievement of an integrated industrial chain and is the first new - energy mineral declared for entry at zero - tariff after Hainan's full - island customs closure [3] - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and it will be cancelled starting from January 1, 2027 [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Dazhong Mining Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Dazhong Mining - **Industry**: Lithium and Iron Ore Mining Key Points and Arguments Financial Position and Market Impact - The company has a manageable pressure from convertible bonds, with minimal impact expected on operations. The total amount of convertible bonds issued is 15.2 billion, with 6 billion already converted and over 9 billion remaining. The conversion price is set at 13 yuan, and the company does not anticipate significant conversion pressure this year [2][4] - Executives plan to reduce their holdings by 7 million shares, but this is expected to have a limited impact on the market [2][4] Lithium Projects Progress - The lithium project in Hunan is progressing well, with plans to produce 5,000 tons of lithium equivalent in 2026, over 20,000 tons in 2027, and reach full production of 12,000 tons by 2028. The total cost for the entire production chain is approximately 35,000 yuan per ton [2][5][6] - The Sichuan lithium mining area has a planned initial production of 1.2 to 1.5 million tons of lithium equivalent by the end of this year, with a target of 30,000 tons by the end of 2027 and 50,000 tons by the end of 2028 [2][8][9] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company has unique advantages in mining development, including innovative designs that lower transportation costs and improve efficiency, such as using shield tunneling machines and self-generating belt transport systems [2][8] - The company does not favor futures hedging but focuses on accelerating production and managing sales rhythm to cope with price fluctuations [2][10] Sales Strategy and Market Position - The sales strategy primarily targets traders and smelters, with long-term contracts in place. The company plans to build a lithium processing plant in Sichuan to enhance recovery rates and reduce processing costs [2][11] - The company aims for a recovery rate of 90% with its own plant compared to 85% with contracted processing [11] Iron Ore Expansion Plans - The iron ore expansion plan is progressing steadily, with expected gradual release of production by 2027 and more significant increases by 2028. Adjustments in sales strategies are being made to counteract the impact of falling iron ore prices [2][12] Future Capital Expenditure and Financing - The company has a capital expenditure plan of approximately 45 to 50 billion yuan for the Hunan project and 20 billion yuan for the Sichuan project, with expected investments of 25 billion yuan this year and a reduction to 15 billion yuan next year [3][15] - Funding sources include self-generated funds from iron ore and contributions from lithium projects, with an expected annual operating cash flow of around 1.5 billion yuan [3][15] Shareholder Returns and Incentives - The company has committed to distributing at least 40% of its net profit as cash dividends annually, reflecting confidence in long-term development [3][16] - There are intentions to consider stock incentives for executives, although no specific plans have been finalized [16] Strategic Development and Resource Expansion - The company is focused on deepening its core business in copper and iron while actively exploring new fields, particularly lithium. It is also considering acquisitions of quality mineral assets as opportunities arise [13][14] Market Outlook and Price Predictions - The lithium market is characterized by strong cyclicality, with demand growth expected to exceed 20% to 30% annually. However, supply increases are anticipated to lag behind demand due to various factors, including high-cost mines shutting down [10] - The company expects to benefit from the domestic market's stability and plans to focus on domestic development to mitigate price volatility [10][12]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

分红方面，永杉锂业A股上市后累计派现2.82亿元。近三年，累计派现2.07亿元。 1月9日，永杉锂业涨0.99%，成交额2.27亿元。两融数据显示，当日永杉锂业获融资买入额1815.18万 元，融资偿还1816.05万元，融资净买入-8616.00元。截至1月9日，永杉锂业融资融券余额合计2.38亿 元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融资方面，永杉锂业当日融资买入1815.18万元。当前融资余额2.38亿元，占流通市值的4.14%，融资余 额超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 截至9月30日，永杉锂业股东户数4.78万，较上期增加7.58%；人均流通股10727股，较上期减少7.04%。 2025年1月-9月，永杉锂业实现营业收入39.32亿元，同比减少17.02%；归母净利润-1.63亿元，同比减少 421.90%。 融券方面，永杉锂业1月9日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出2.12万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额23.81万 元；融券余量2.14万股，融券余额24.03万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，锦州永杉锂业股份有限公司位于辽宁省凌海市大有乡双庙农场，成立日期2003年6月18日， 上市日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the significant drop in polysilicon prices, indicating the collapse of the previously anticipated "price alliance" in the solar industry, leading to a harsh competition phase characterized by cost elimination [2][3] - The initial stability in polysilicon prices was attributed to hopes of a self-regulating alliance among leading companies to control production and stabilize prices, which had previously led to a 40% price rebound [2][3] - The regulatory intervention from the market supervision authority clarified that the government aims to eliminate vicious competition and does not support price-fixing agreements, effectively shattering the industry's hopes for a collaborative pricing strategy [3][4] Group 2 - The current reality reveals a significant oversupply in polysilicon production, with total domestic capacity reaching approximately 2.65 million tons, while the estimated demand for 2026 is only about 1.45 million tons, resulting in a surplus of nearly 1.2 million tons [4] - The industry is also burdened by high inventory levels, which exacerbate the oversupply situation and hinder price recovery efforts [4] Group 3 - The article highlights the recent surge in coking coal prices, driven by news from a major coal-producing province regarding the removal of certain coal mines from the supply guarantee list, affecting approximately 19 million tons of production capacity [7][8] - Market sentiment is influenced by the potential shift in coal production policies, raising concerns about future supply constraints and the overall balance in the coal market [8][10] Group 4 - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant price increase, with the main contract closing at nearly 138,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 9% rise in a single day, driven by both supply constraints and resilient demand [12][16] - Supply-side issues include environmental regulations affecting lithium extraction in key regions, as well as production halts at major mines, which contribute to a tightening supply outlook [14][15] - Demand for lithium remains strong, particularly from the energy storage sector, which supports the overall market despite seasonal fluctuations in electric vehicle demand [16][17] Group 5 - The article discusses the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC products, which is expected to increase costs for exporters and potentially reduce profit margins, leading to a bearish outlook for the PVC market [30][31] - The PVC industry is already facing challenges from high inventory levels and weak demand, particularly in the construction sector, which is closely tied to the real estate market's performance [32][33]

退税调整刺激短期需求， 加速上涨注意回调风险 碳酸锂周报 2026/01/10 曾宇轲（有色金属组） 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：1月9日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报138653元，周涨18.6%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为139100元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价143420元，本周涨17.96%。 ◆ 供给：1月8日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22535吨，环比增0.5%。 ◆ 需求：乘联会数据，12月新能源车零售量138.7万辆，同比增长7%，环比增幅为5%，全年累计销量1285.9万辆，增速18%。当月厂商批发量 155.4万辆，同比增长3%，但环比下降9%，全年累计批发量达1531万辆，同比增长25%。1月湖南裕能、万润新材、德方纳米和常州锂源等头 部磷酸铁锂企业减产，淡季需求回落。 ◆ 库存：1月8日，国内碳酸锂周 ...

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged to over 140,000 yuan per ton, marking a 19% increase from the end of 2025, driven by supply disruptions and explosive downstream demand [2][5] - The current market dynamics show a close correlation between spot and futures prices, with spot prices now largely referencing futures pricing, contributing to rapid price increases [2][6][7] - The recent price increase is attributed to supply disturbances, particularly from the Jiangxiawo mining area, and a significant rise in demand from both the power and energy storage sectors [5][6] Group 2 - The futures market reflects strong short-term trends, with the main contract for lithium carbonate reaching 143,400 yuan per ton, indicating robust market expectations [3][8] - The pricing strategy for lithium carbonate is evolving, with suppliers now offering options that tie pricing to futures rather than traditional methods, enhancing price transmission efficiency [7][8] - There is a notable increase in the production of lithium carbonate, with weekly inventory rising to 110,000 tons, indicating a shift from a depletion to an accumulation phase [6]