张驰宁 投资咨询号：Z0020302 国泰君安期货市场分析师 今日盘面表现？ 日线涨停开盘后直接形成向上突破的跳空缺口，释放出右侧偏多信号，盘面结构继续转强，同时先前上 升趋势也再次得到延续，在价格尚未收复7月25日收盘价79160（附近）之前，日线偏多结构或将维持。 未来需要关注什么——供应缺失部分如何补足？ 对于国内缺失的供应部分，后续需要通过消耗国内锂矿库存、日韩转口贸易、海外矿山发运增量、智利 阿根廷直接进口碳酸锂等方式来进行弥补，但考虑到供应端的调整节奏以及贸易物流上的时间差，短期 锂价或将维持偏强格局。与此同时，仍需高度关注项目的复工进展，复工后价格将快速下跌至成本抬升 的价格中枢。另外需要注意，近期由于期货端的快速拉涨，碳酸锂合约的基差已出现较大异常，截止上 周五SMM长协基准价期现基差（2509合约）周环比下跌7170元/吨至-4740元/吨，后续盘面若继续大幅 上行则存在较强的基差修复可能。预计近期锂价波动加剧，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 碳酸锂今日涨停的核心原因：宁德时代枧下窝矿区停产，且短期暂无复产计划（期货日报） 据了解，涉及停产的矿山由于占碳酸锂年产能份额较大，若未来停产时间较长，则对实际 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.05%, and ChiNext Index up 1.59% [1][21] - Hong Kong stocks opened higher but turned negative, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.33% [2][3] A-share Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3639.91, with a gain of 4.78 points (0.13%) [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 11245.30, with a gain of 116.62 points (1.05%) [1] - The ChiNext Index is at 2370.99, with a gain of 37.04 points (1.59%) [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index is at 24854.62, down 4.20 points (-0.02%) [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is at 5442.10, down 18.20 points (-0.33%) [3] Bond Market - Government bond futures fell, with the 30-year main contract down 0.44%, the 10-year down 0.11%, the 5-year down 0.08%, and the 2-year down 0.01% [4][6] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate futures hitting the limit up and industrial silicon rising over 4% [4][28] - Other commodities such as焦煤, 焦炭, and various metals also saw gains, while fuel oil and eggs declined [4][28] Lithium Sector - Lithium stocks surged, with Tianqi Lithium up over 15% and Ganfeng Lithium up 13% [14][25] - Lithium carbonate futures opened with a limit up of 8% [28][26] New Energy Materials - New energy materials concept stocks saw significant gains, with Xinhan New Materials up over 13% and other related stocks also performing well [8][9] Financial Technology Sector - A-share brokerage and fintech stocks experienced a rally, with Guosheng Financial hitting the limit up and other stocks like Tonghuashun rising over 7% [11][12] Apple Concept Stocks - In Hong Kong, Apple concept stocks continued their upward trend, with Hongteng Precision up over 9% and other related stocks also showing gains [11][13] Xinjiang Sector - The Xinjiang sector remained active, with multiple stocks hitting the limit up, including Xibu Construction and Guotong Shares [17][18]

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 11, A-shares opened mixed with the lithium mining sector experiencing a significant surge [1] - Carbonate lithium futures saw all contracts hitting the daily limit, with the main contract rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton [1] - Hong Kong lithium stocks also opened strongly, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both rising over 14% [2][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The energy metals sector opened strongly, with several lithium stocks hitting the daily limit, including Yongshan Lithium and Shengxin Lithium [4] - The semiconductor sector weakened, with Huahong Semiconductor dropping over 6% and SMIC nearly 3% [2] - Precious metals sector declined, with West Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold both falling over 4% [8][10] Group 3: Company-Specific News - CATL announced on August 11 that it has suspended mining operations at its Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license on August 9, but stated that the impact on overall operations is minimal [6] - The establishment of Xinjiang Railway Co., Ltd. was reported, with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan, focusing on railway transportation and related construction [6] Group 4: Other Market Movements - The consumer electronics sector saw a short-term rise, with Hongri Da increasing over 10% [6] - PEEK materials concept stocks also surged, with Shuangyi Technology hitting the daily limit [11] - Gold prices fluctuated due to rumors of increased tariffs on gold bars imported into the U.S., with spot gold prices dropping to 3,369.38 USD/oz [10][12]

8月11日，A股市场震荡上行，锂矿板块暴涨！截至9:56，新能源汽车ETF（516390）放量涨超2%，冲击两连阳。有色50ETF（159652）高开震 荡，微涨0.27%。 新能源汽车ETF（516390）标的指数成分股悉数走强，锂矿板块领涨，盛新锂能、天齐锂业10cm涨停，赣锋锂业涨超7%！宁德时代、汇川技 术、比亚迪等微涨。 【新能源汽车ETF（516390）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 估算权重▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 电力设备 | 0.84% | 15.37 Z | 9.89% | | 2 | 300124 | 汇川技术 | 机械设备 | 0.90% | 3.47 亿 | 9.08% | | 3 | 002594 | 比亚迪 | 汽车 | 0.46% | 8.02亿 | 7.80% | | 4 | 000625 | 长安汽车 | 汽车 | 0.70% | 1.98亿 | 4.92% | | 5 | 002050 | 三 ...

【导读】宁德时代回应宜春项目矿区停产问题，碳酸锂主力合约涨停，锂矿概念股大涨 碳酸锂期货主力合约涨停 中国基金报记者张舟 过去几周，江西大厂矿区停产消息备受关注，成为扰动碳酸锂价格走向的核心原因之一。8月9日，多方渠道消息证实，江西宜春枧下窝矿区采矿端停产。 不过，周末宁德时代并未回应。 8月11日上午，宁德时代在互动平台正式回应：公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后，确已暂停了开采作业。 宁德时代表示："公司正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。" 8月11日，国内商品期市开盘，碳酸锂主力合约涨停，报81000元/吨。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产，工业硅上涨3.26%。 机构预计未来几天锂价或升至8万元每吨 锂矿概念股大涨 8月11日开盘，A股锂矿概念股集体大涨，江特电机、永杉锂业涨停。 盛新锂能、天齐锂业涨超8%，中矿资源涨超7%，威领股份、融捷股份、永兴材料、赣锋锂业等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 总市值 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002240 | 盛新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of the suspension of mining operations at the Ningde Jiangxiawo mine on lithium supply in China, indicating a potential tightening of the lithium market and a shift towards supply-demand balance [2][3] - The Jiangxiawo mine, which has a full production capacity of approximately 100,000 tons, accounts for one-third of Jiangxi's lithium production capacity, and its closure could lead to a supply gap of several thousand tons per month in the third quarter [2][3] - The suspension is seen as a sign of stricter regulation on lithium mining in Jiangxi, which may lead to further reductions in lithium supply across the region [2] Group 2 - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention, with the upcoming China Solid-State Battery Technology Industry Development Conference potentially catalyzing further investment in the industry [3] - Recent advancements in solid-state battery technology, including the launch of the first automotive-grade solid-state battery production line and breakthroughs in energy density, are expected to drive industry growth [3] - The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is currently at 23.5 times, indicating over 84% room for recovery compared to the average since 2020, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun project by CATL has significantly impacted the carbon lithium market, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate prices and related stocks [2][3][10]. Group 1: Company Response - CATL confirmed that mining operations at the Yichun project were suspended after the mining license expired on August 9, and the company is in the process of applying for a renewal [2][3]. - The company stated that the suspension will not have a significant impact on its overall operations [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - On August 11, lithium carbonate futures surged to a limit-up price of 81,000 RMB per ton, an increase of 8% from the previous closing price of 75,000 RMB [7][10]. - Major lithium-related stocks saw significant gains, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium Industries rising over 8% [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The Yichun mining area and its associated refining facilities contribute approximately 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate per month, accounting for about 12.5% of domestic production [10]. - The suspension may create a supply gap of several thousand tons per month, as the market is expected to remain in a tight balance between supply and demand in Q3 [10]. - Analysts predict that the sentiment from the supply disruption could push lithium prices above 80,000 RMB per ton in the coming days, before stabilizing between 70,000 and 80,000 RMB per ton [10]. Group 4: Financial Implications - If lithium prices rise by 10,000 RMB per ton, CATL's gross margin could face a potential decline of about 4% [11].

锂业股早盘高开，截至发稿，锂业「双雄」 $天齐锂业 (09696.HK)$ 、$赣锋锂业 (01772.HK)$ 均大涨超15%。 01772 贛鋒鋰業 最高 48.800 開市 成交量 1032.2萬 47.160 最低 44.260 前收 41.020 成交額 4.8億 季K @ ▲ 5日 日K 周K 月K 年K 1 से 3 સ 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小時 2小時 3小時 4小時 | | 1月 3月 47.993 47.583 47.260 47.260 46.763 46.353 交易中 08/11 09:56:30 32.340↑ +4.220 +15.01% 最高 2513.99萬 32.400 開市 31.280 成交量 最低 7.86億 30.060 前收 28.120 成交額 ® ▼ 5日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 3分 5分 10分 15分 1小時 2小時 3小時 4小時 3月 1分 30分 32.619 32.340 32.057 31.776 31.494 31.213 30.932 30.651 30.370 30.088 成交量 VOL: 25.240 200.00 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 另据证券时报8月10日报道，记者进行了实地探访，当地村民表示，"矿区是昨晚停的。以前晚上正常开 工时，灯火通明，山上放炮，山下的房子都能感受到。原来矿区的山地，很多就是我们村民的山地，后 来卖给了他们。"在湖溪村采访时，记者巧遇了几位投资者。"我们可能是外界唯一的见证枧下窝矿区停 产的目击者。"上述投资者表示，"昨天，我们晚上9点多从小路爬上山顶，11点达到山顶，到晚上12 点，所有的作业挖掘机、推土机，都是准时停产。" 原标题：宁德时代重要矿山停产，"投资者光着膀子，深夜上山蹲守见证"，相关商品和股票一波大涨， 澳洲股票也在疯涨 山里的酷暑，虽然气温会比城市要凉快，但也高达35摄氏度。当时，上述投资者正光着膀子，他们的手 臂和膝盖，有多处划破的痕迹。"我们一直蹲守到凌晨4点才下山，下山后在车里睡了一觉。"上述投资 者们驾驶的车牌显示来自江苏。 受消息影响，8月11日早上开盘，碳酸锂期货所有合约均触及涨停，其中主力合约涨幅8%，报81000元/ 吨。 | GFEX碳酸锂 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

过去一个月，围绕着江西宜春8家涉锂矿山企业需要在9月底前完成储量核实报告编制的消息，一直扰动着碳酸锂价格走向。宁德时代旗下宜春时代新能源 矿业有限公司在8家涉锂矿山企业之列，其拥有的宜丰县圳口里—奉新县枧下窝矿区陶瓷土（下称"枧下窝矿区"）（含锂）的采矿权始于2022年8月9日， 将于2025年8月9日到期，且产能规模较大。 从8月9日开始，陆续就有消息传出，枧下窝锂矿确定停产，短期无复产计划。有研究员表示，确实已经停了，此次停产是三个月时间。 | GFEX碳酸锂 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 81000 | | | | | GFEX CNY 9:05:35 | | | | | 或一 | | | | | 买- | 81000 | 48486 | | | 总量 | 22622 | 现手 | 2 | | 持仓 | 31.59万 | 增仓 | -4774 | | 均价 | 80963 | 开盘 | 81000 | | 最昌 | 81000 | 最低 | 81000 | | 涨停 | 81000 | 跌停 | 69000 | | 涨跌 Close | 4040 | 涨跌幅Cl ...