国联水产：调整经营战略 原供美罗非鱼转内销 金十数据4月16日讯，4月16日，国联水产通过官方公众号发文称，率先启动"出口转内销"计划，将原供 应美国的罗非鱼以惠民价格投放国内市场。国联水产称，近年来，美国频繁加征关税政策对我国水产品 出口形成重压。面对严峻形势，公司秉持民族企业的社会责任感，迅速调整经营战略，将重心转向内销 市场。企业依托成熟的出口级生产线与国际化品控标准，率先启动"出口转内销"计划，将原供应美国的 罗非鱼以惠民价格投放国内市场，让国人享受"同线同标同质"的高端水产品。 （上证报） ...

超三成销量阻 断，如何应对 129%出口关 税？中国罗非鱼 面临关键大考_ 南方+_南方plus 中国罗非鱼即将 面临美国市场 129%关税？ 订单停止，鱼价 大跌 "上周开始，我 们这情况明显恶 化了，这种关税 的情况，采购商 也不敢下 单。"海南文昌 某罗非鱼资深人 士告诉记者，目 前，加工厂虽然 开出报价，但收 购量很有限，对 下一步的形势变 化，也只能继续 观望。美国当地 时间4月2日，总 统特朗普宣布征 收"对等关税"措 施，其中对中国 再加征34%关 税，中国罗非鱼 输美关税累计已 达到79%。 近期，美国对中 国启动多轮加征 关税，从特朗普 上任至今，叠加 其第一个任期政 策，中国罗非鱼 输美关税已达到 79%。日前，特 朗普又在其社交 平台发文称，如 果中国不在4月8 日撤回对美反制 关税，美国将从 4月9日起，对所 有中国商品再加 征50%关税。综 合前期累计关税 税率，此举意味 着中国罗非鱼出 口美国，将面临 129%关税。 波士顿水产展 上，中国赴美参 展水产企业由 2024年的250家 锐减至180多 家。国际采购商 对贸易争端表示 深切担忧，如果 情况持续下去， 中国水产品有可 能失 ...

Core Insights - The complete aquaculture of bluefin tuna in Japan is facing significant challenges, with the output from complete aquaculture dropping to 2% of total production in 2024, a decrease from 4% the previous year and 16% in 2020 [1][2] - Major Japanese seafood companies, including Kyokuyo and Nissui, have exited the complete aquaculture sector, leaving Maruha Nichiro as the only large company maintaining this practice, which is expected to see an 80% reduction in output by 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Current Production and Trends - In 2024, Japan's total output of farmed bluefin tuna is reported at 18,687 tons, an 11% increase from the previous year, but the complete aquaculture segment only contributes 405 tons [1] - The reliance on natural fry for 98% of the farmed bluefin tuna indicates a shift away from complete aquaculture methods, which are designed to prevent overfishing and ensure stable supply [2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Research - Despite current setbacks, complete aquaculture remains a promising technology for sustainable seafood production, with ongoing research from institutions like Kinki University aimed at improving fry development and reducing reliance on natural resources [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Ninth China International Aquaculture Technology Conference emphasizes "technology leadership, innovation empowerment, and green development" as key themes for the aquaculture industry, highlighting the strategic importance of aquatic products in national food security [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Achievements - China's aquaculture industry has achieved significant milestones since the reform and opening up, with the total aquatic product output reaching 73.66 million tons in 2024, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer for over 30 years [3]. - The aquaculture production volume was 60.62 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [3]. Group 2: Economic Contribution - The aquaculture sector provides one-third of the protein source for 1.4 billion Chinese people while utilizing only 7%-9% of the total feed production, showcasing its efficiency and contribution to food security [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The industry is transitioning from quantity to quality, facing challenges such as green development, quality safety, raw material shortages, and low levels of intelligence [5]. - Despite advancements in aquaculture technology, issues like resource depletion and low added value in the industry remain prominent, hindering high-quality development [5]. Group 4: Conference Highlights - The conference served as a platform to address industry challenges and promote high-quality development, unveiling the "2025 China Aquaculture Industry Top 100 Brands" list, which includes leading companies like Tongwei, Haida, and New Hope Liuhe [6]. - Five major initiatives were proposed to guide the industry towards high-quality development, focusing on policy guidance, technological support, green practices, intelligent development, and collaborative efforts [6]. Group 5: Company Strategies - Tongwei has launched the "Good Product Year" initiative in 2023, emphasizing stable raw materials and consistent quality, and plans to deepen this strategy in 2024 with the "Ten Thousand Households Grow Together" program [9][10]. - The company has prioritized product quality and technological content, reflecting its commitment to enhancing its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [11].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform the Market" rating for both Blue Moon Group and CATL, indicating expected performance above the market average [6][27][31]. Core Insights - The jewelry sector is transitioning from channel-driven to brand-driven, with a focus on product structure upgrades leading to improved gross margins [8][9]. - The pet consumption market is expanding, driven by an increase in pet ownership and a demand for higher quality products [21]. - CATL is expected to maintain strong performance with a projected net profit growth from 645 billion to 932 billion CNY over the next three years [31]. Summary by Sections Jewelry Sector - The jewelry industry is seeing a shift towards brand-driven strategies, enhancing product offerings and improving profitability [8][9]. - The report highlights that the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry have shown a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in early 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [10]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Zhou Dasheng are focusing on high-quality expansion and product structure improvements to capture market share [11][12]. Pet Consumption - The pet food sector is recommended due to the growing consumer interest and spending on pet-related products, with leading companies expected to outperform the market [21]. - The report notes a significant increase in online sales and engagement in the pet product category, with a 71% year-on-year growth in pet-related live commerce [21]. Blue Moon Group - The company is projected to recover from losses in 2024, with expected net profits turning positive by 2025, supported by a strong brand presence in the cleaning products market [27]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% in 2024, driven by increased sales across all product categories [25]. CATL - CATL is projected to maintain its leadership in the global battery market, with a significant increase in production capacity and a strong pipeline of new products [31]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 645 billion CNY in 2025, with a favorable valuation range of 337.12 to 366.43 CNY per share [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [39]. Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.72% from February 28, 2025, to March 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 3.15 percentage points [7][8]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with animal health, feed, aquaculture, and fishery sectors increasing by 4.45%, 3.22%, 2.45%, and 0.99% respectively, while agricultural product processing and planting sectors saw declines of 0.5% and 2.11% [8][9]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is approximately 2.47 times, indicating a recent recovery and positioning at about 54.6% of the historical valuation center since 2006, which is considered historically low [12]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 14.57 CNY/kg to 14.67 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2263.04 CNY/ton, showing an upward trend, while soybean meal was priced at 3470 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for self-bred pigs was 35.15 CNY/head, showing a slight increase, while the profit for purchased piglets was -34.44 CNY/head, indicating a decrease [15][16][19]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks rose by 21.4% to 2.79 CNY/chick, while the average price of layer chicks fell by 0.6% to 4.3 CNY/chick. The average price of white feather broilers increased by 14.5% to 7.11 CNY/kg, with a profit of -0.51 CNY/chick, which is an improvement compared to the previous period [21][25]. - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp remained stable at 19.66 CNY/kg and 14.21 CNY/kg respectively as of March 13, 2025 [27]. Company Insights - **Muyuan Foods (牧原股份)**: The company is recognized as a leading domestic pig farming enterprise with cost advantages and substantial cash reserves, expected to maintain its leading position [40]. - **Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份)**: The company is expanding its pig production capacity steadily and has strong cost control capabilities, maintaining its leading position in the yellow feather chicken business [40]. - **Haid Group (海大集团)**: The company is a leading player in the feed industry, with market share expected to continue to grow [40]. - **Yisheng (益生股份)**: The company is a leading enterprise in the white feather chicken breeding sector [40].

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for several stocks in the agriculture sector, with "Buy-A" ratings for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" ratings for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The livestock farming sector is expected to see improved performance in 2024, with a focus on the profitability of pig farming as the industry enters a recovery phase [4]. - The report highlights that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, overlooking potential positive influences from declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [4]. - The poultry industry is also showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for broiler chickens and eggs, indicating potential profitability improvements [26]. Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - As of February 28, 2025, average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 14.84, 15.17, and 14.34 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.98%, 3.80%, and 2.05% respectively [3]. - The average pork price was 20.86 yuan/kg, down 2.75% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price for piglets increased by 0.44% to 27.25 yuan/kg [3][18]. - The self-breeding profit was 43.08 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 9.39 yuan/head [3][18]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens was 6.10 yuan/kg, up 3.92% week-on-week, and the price for broiler chicks rose by 9.05% to 2.29 yuan/chick [26]. - Egg prices increased by 5.41% to 7.80 yuan/kg [26]. Feed Processing - In 2024, the total industrial feed production in China decreased by 2.1% to 31,503.1 million tons, with pig feed production down 3.9% to 14,391.3 million tons [30]. - The production of pet feed, however, saw a growth of 9.3%, indicating a potential area of opportunity within the feed sector [30]. Aquaculture - As of February 28, 2025, prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass remained stable at 180.00 yuan/kg, 300.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [34]. - Freshwater fish prices showed mixed results, with grass carp at 15.02 yuan/kg (down 0.66%) and crucian carp at 20.55 yuan/kg (up 0.05%) [34]. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 28, 2025, soybean prices were 3,878.89 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, while corn and wheat prices were 2,218.14 yuan/ton and 2,434.28 yuan/ton, respectively, showing slight increases [37].

融资造假。 作者 I 杨文静 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 最近，东南亚创投圈炸开了锅。 时间回到十多年前，Gi b r a n Hu z a if a h还是一个印尼大学生。在一节水产养殖选修课上， Huz a if a h听教授讲述越南鲶鱼出口，发现印尼也同样有着巨大的机会，于是用兼职赚来 的钱租下两个鱼塘。 毕业时，Hu z a if a h 已经有了70多个鱼塘和一家鲶鱼加工厂，由于鱼饲料和人工投喂成本 过高，Hu z a if a h想出用智能手机操控投喂鱼食，并在201 4年找来专攻技术的大学校友成 立了一家新公司——eFis h e r y。 成立之初，eFis h e r y并没有被用户普遍接受，Huz a if a h抵押掉所有资产仍难以为继，于 是将目光转向了风险投资机构。然而VC也鲜有热情，Huz a if a h曾在采访中直言： "在20 1 8年以前，99 .9%的投资人都会拒绝我。" 起因是印尼明星独角兽eFis he r y造假风波。春节前夕，一份调查报告显示，eFis h e r y可能 在过去几年中虚增收入和利润——宣称20 2 4年前9个月录得1 6 0 0万美元利润，但 ...