证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

Group 1 - The retail prices of various food items show mixed trends, with some experiencing slight increases while others face declines both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - Rice prices remain stable at 6.54 yuan per kilogram, while flour prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year to 6.15 yuan per kilogram [1] - Pork prices, specifically for hind leg meat, have seen a significant year-on-year decline of 14.5%, now priced at 27.71 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The price of fresh eggs is stable at 10.03 yuan per kilogram, but it has decreased by 15.0% compared to the same period last year [1] - Among aquatic products, the price of carp is 21.97 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [1] - Vegetable prices have increased by 2.0% month-on-month, with an average price of 7.00 yuan per kilogram, but they are down 15.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Broccoli and cauliflower have the highest month-on-month price increases among vegetables, rising by 11.3% and 10.9% respectively [1] - Conversely, lotus root and pumpkin have seen month-on-month price declines of 1.1% [1] - The weighted average price for the vegetable category is derived from 30 different types of vegetables [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The overall trading volume of pork and vegetables in Hangzhou has slightly decreased, while the trading volume of aquatic products has increased during the period from August 11 to August 17. Pork wholesale prices have slightly decreased, while the overall wholesale prices of vegetables and aquatic products have seen a minor increase [1]. Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork was 8,513 heads (653.15 tons), a decrease of 2.75% compared to the previous week [1]. - The average daily wholesale price of pork was 18.87 yuan/kg, down by 1.31% [1]. Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables in the wholesale market was 3,642.86 tons, a decrease of 2.71% compared to the previous week [1]. - Among the 28 monitored vegetable varieties, 20 saw price increases while 8 experienced price declines. Notable price increases included: - Lettuce at 8.04 yuan/kg, up by 16.02% - Spinach at 14.49 yuan/kg, up by 15% - Cauliflower at 10.01 yuan/kg, up by 10.73% - The largest price decrease was for water bamboo at 13.46 yuan/kg, down by 5.81% [1]. Group 3: Egg and Aquatic Product Market - The average daily trading volume of eggs remained stable at 1,035 tons [1]. - The total wholesale trading volume of aquatic products was 3,678.3 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 525.47 tons, an increase of 13.48% compared to the previous week [1]. - Among the 11 monitored aquatic products, 8 saw price increases while 3 experienced price declines. Significant price increases included: - Grass carp at 32.28 yuan/kg, up by 16.12% - Pomfret at 48.67 yuan/kg, up by 5.14% [1].

Price Trends Summary - The retail price of rice is 6.54 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - The retail price of flour is 6.14 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [1] - The price of soybean oil is 12.82 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [1] - The price of peanut oil is 28.46 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [1] - The price of pork (hind leg meat) is 27.86 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1] - The price of white strip chicken is 24.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [1] - The price of fresh eggs is 9.83 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [1] Vegetable Price Movements - The average price of vegetables is 6.78 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [1] - The top five vegetables with the highest month-on-month price increases include leeks (8.42 yuan/kg, +3.6%), spinach (9.01 yuan/kg, +2.2%), eggplant (5.99 yuan/kg, +2.0%), lettuce (7.46 yuan/kg, +1.5%), and ginger (15.07 yuan/kg, +1.1%) [1] - The top five vegetables with the largest month-on-month price decreases include pumpkin (4.70 yuan/kg, -2.1%), winter melon (3.86 yuan/kg, -1.8%), cucumber (5.93 yuan/kg, -1.7%), tomato (6.35 yuan/kg, -1.7%), and lotus root (11.39 yuan/kg, -0.9%) [1]

Price Trends in Food Products - The retail price of rice is 6.53 yuan/kg, showing no change month-on-month and a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The retail price of flour is 6.16 yuan/kg, with no change month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The price of soybean oil is 12.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year [1] - The price of peanut oil is 28.48 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year [1] - The price of pork (hind leg meat) is 27.73 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a significant decrease of 9.3% year-on-year [1] Price Trends in Poultry and Eggs - The price of white strip chicken is 24.54 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged month-on-month and decreasing by 2.6% year-on-year [1] - The price of fresh eggs is 9.63 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.5% month-on-month but a significant decrease of 16.3% year-on-year [1] Price Trends in Aquatic Products - The price of carp is 22.09 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month and a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [1] - The price of grass carp is 23.78 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month and an increase of 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The price of large yellow croaker is 53.19 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [1] Price Trends in Vegetables - The average price of vegetables is 6.79 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month and a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year [1] - The top five vegetables with the highest month-on-month price increases include leeks (8.13 yuan/kg, +2.4%) and lettuce (7.35 yuan/kg, +2.2%) [1] - The top five vegetables with the largest month-on-month price decreases include tomatoes (6.46 yuan/kg, -3.7%) and bitter melon (8.32 yuan/kg, -2.3%) [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with grapes, citrus, and bananas decreasing by 3.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.08 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with tomatoes, winter melons, and lotus roots decreasing by 6.1%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with large hairtail, crucian carp, and grass carp dropping by 1.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice remained unchanged and flour and peanut oil increased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.63 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef increased by 0.2% and lamb remained stable [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% and eggs increasing by 2.0% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly declined, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices predominantly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4% and compound fertilizers increasing by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.8% and polypropylene, methanol, and soda ash decreasing by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 934 yuan and 755 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3401 yuan, 3538 yuan, and 3584 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2]

Group 1: Agricultural Production - The "Daqingling" variety of water chestnuts in Ruokeng Village, Fengyang Town, is harvested from early July to mid-November, with an average yield of approximately 2,000 pounds per acre, and peak daily harvests reaching 15,000 pounds, leading to an expected annual total production exceeding 2 million pounds [4] - In Yantai Longkou, the jellyfish harvest has begun, with 41 fishing boats successfully obtaining special permits for jellyfish fishing, contributing to local economic income and enhancing the variety of seafood available to consumers [6][8] Group 2: Fishing Practices - The summer fishing season has commenced at the Biali River fishing ground in Anhui, marking a shift from the traditional winter fishing practices to a seasonal rotation that aims to improve economic efficiency and meet market demand [9][11] - The Biali River fish hatchery can cultivate 1 million pounds of fish annually, primarily focusing on species such as silver carp and grass carp, with a sustainable fishing approach that includes seasonal catch and release [12]

Core Insights - The retail prices of various food items have shown a mixed trend, with some experiencing slight declines while others have increased slightly [1] Grain Prices - Rice is priced at 6.53 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year [1] - Flour is priced at 6.15 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year [1] Edible Oil Prices - Soybean oil is priced at 12.86 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year [1] - Peanut oil is priced at 28.47 yuan/kg, down 0.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [1] - Rapeseed oil is priced at 16.81 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Blended oil is priced at 15.65 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year [1] Meat Prices - Pork (hind leg) is priced at 27.67 yuan/kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year [1] - White strip chicken is priced at 24.60 yuan/kg, down 0.4% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year [1] Egg Prices - Fresh eggs are priced at 9.70 yuan/kg, down 1.1% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year [1] Aquatic Product Prices - Carp is priced at 22.14 yuan/kg, up 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [1] - Silver carp is priced at 22.28 yuan/kg, down 0.4% month-on-month and up 4.3% year-on-year [1] - Grass carp is priced at 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.6% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year [1] - Crucian carp is priced at 30.51 yuan/kg, up 0.1% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year [1] - Large hairtail is priced at 47.98 yuan/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year [1] - Large yellow croaker is priced at 53.09 yuan/kg, up 0.3% month-on-month and 10.8% year-on-year [1] Vegetable Prices - The average price of vegetables is 6.80 yuan/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Lettuce has the highest month-on-month increase at 7.08 yuan/kg, up 2.2% [1] - Pumpkin has the largest month-on-month decrease at 5.10 yuan/kg, down 2.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent food safety inspection in Qijiang District revealed that out of 27 batches of food products tested, 25 were compliant while 2 were found to be non-compliant, leading to immediate regulatory actions [2][3]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 27 batches of edible agricultural products were sampled, with 25 passing and 2 failing the safety standards [2]. - The non-compliant products were identified based on specific food safety national standards, which classify any failure in testing as a non-compliant product [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The local market supervision authority has initiated legal actions against the non-compliant products as per the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China [2]. - Risk control measures have been implemented, including tracing the product flow, recalling, and removing the non-compliant products from the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Panyu District is actively engaged in ecological restoration efforts through the release of aquatic species, with a focus on enhancing biodiversity in the Pearl River system [4][6]. Group 1: Aquatic Species Release Activities - On June 24, the Panyu District held its 2025 aquatic species release event, where over 1.57 million fish and shrimp were released, including species such as grass carp, yellowfin seabream, and white eel [2][3]. - The district has conducted these release activities for 44 consecutive years, emphasizing their importance in ecological restoration and the maintenance of aquatic resources [6]. Group 2: Biodiversity and Ecological Improvement - In the past five years, Panyu District has released over 5.5 million aquatic species, optimizing the variety and quantity of species to enhance local biodiversity [7][8]. - Local species such as yellowfin seabream and shrimp have shown a recovery in population, contributing to the ecological vitality of the Pearl River [8][9]. Group 3: Sustainable Fisheries Development - Panyu District is committed to consolidating and expanding its fisheries development achievements, which include ongoing release activities and initiatives for river protection and water environment management [10][11]. - The district promotes a green and circular development model for its fisheries, aiming for high-quality industry growth [12][13]. Group 4: Innovative Aquaculture Practices - The district has established benchmark models for fishery governance, including various water treatment methods and ecological breeding practices to reduce wastewater discharge [14][15][19]. - Panyu District encourages the adoption of premium aquaculture species and ecological mixed farming to enhance the quality of its fisheries, contributing to the public brand "Panyu Fresh" [18][19].