农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《备货进入尾声支撑走弱，降重有限 +大猪压力未释节后猪价承压—行业 点评报告》-2026.2.24 《一号文件聚焦农业现代化"量化落 地"，猪价节前走弱节后面临较大压 力—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《二育由惜售转出栏但去化有限，节 后猪价回落风险加大—行业周报》- 2026.2.1 10 体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率 指向全年偏松 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 周观察：体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向全年偏松 体重回补叠加二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向 2026 全年偏松。据 涌益咨询，截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 10.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.82 元/公斤，本周猪价在小年前备货博弈下走弱。节后我们重点关注体重、二育、 冻品三大抓手进 ...

农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 农林牧渔 沪深300 陈雪丽（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 周观察：体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向全年偏松 体重回补叠加二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向 2026 全年偏松。据 涌益咨询，截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 10.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.82 元/公斤，本周猪价在小年前备货博弈下走弱。节后我们重点关注体重、二育、 冻品三大抓手进行分析。出栏体重方面，集团、散户出栏均重节后均出现回 升，节前阶段性的降重出栏告一段落。截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，集团出栏均重 125.19kg，环比+2.57 kg，散户出栏均重 140.65kg，环比+0.98 kg。其中集团端 回升幅度更大，反映规模场节后出栏体重回补更明显。 二育方面，春节前最后一周起二育情绪明显退潮，后续需跟踪二育存量释放节 奏。栏舍利用率从 ...

| 品种 | 零售价格 | 环比 | 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/公斤、升) | (%) | (%) | | | 粮食 | | | | | | 大米 | 6.50 | 0.0 | -1.1 | | | 面粉 | 6.09 | -0.2 | -2.4 | | | 食用油 | | | | | | 豆油 | 12.78 | -0.1 | -1.5 | | | 花生油 | 28.71 | 0.1 | 0.0 | | | 菜籽油 | 16.72 | -0.1 | -1.4 | | | 调和油 | 15.56 | 0.0 | -0.8 | | | 猪肉 | | | | | | 后腿肉 | 26.76 | 0.2 | -9.7 | | | 鸡肉 | | | | | | 白条鸡 | 24.86 | 0.0 | -1.3 | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 鲜鸡蛋 | 10.69 | -0.3 | -1.7 | | | 水产品 | | | | | | 其中：鲤鱼 | 22.53 | 1.6 | 4.4 | | | 鲢鱼 | 22.43 | 0.2 | 2.1 ...

农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《一号文件聚焦农业现代化"量化落 地"，猪价节前走弱节后面临较大压 力—行业周报》-2026.2.8 备货进入尾声支撑走弱，降重有限+大猪压力未释节后猪价承压。据涌益咨 询，截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，全国生猪均价 11.66 元/公斤，周环比-0.40 元/公 斤，节前最后一周猪价整体偏弱。屠宰量在节前显著抬升，承接供给释放。供 给端看，2026 年 2 月 12 日全国出栏均重 126.05kg，较上周环比-1.35kg，节前 有一定降重行为但幅度较小。结构端 2026 年 2 月 12 日肥标差 1.06 元/公斤，仍 处高位对应大猪压力仍在，集中兑现导致的结构性压价风险较大。 需求端看，白条价格回落但毛白价差稳定，白条价格较前周继续回落至 15.80 元/公斤，环比-0.57 元/公斤，毛白价差维持高位，终端价格边际走弱，符合节 前备货后段特征，价格端的边际支撑走弱 ...

Core Insights - The supply of essential food items in Jiangsu province is sufficient and prices are generally stable as the Spring Festival approaches, with a monitoring report indicating that out of 97 key food items, 54 saw price increases, 5 remained stable, and 38 experienced price declines [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - The prices of staple grains and oils remain stable, with specific prices for Northeast grade japonica rice, Northern Jiangsu grade japonica rice, and premium flour averaging 3.22 yuan, 2.69 yuan, and 2.96 yuan per 500 grams, showing a decrease of 0.3%, stable, and stable respectively [2] - The prices for 5L containers of first-grade rapeseed oil, peanut oil, and soybean oil are 81.71 yuan, 142.19 yuan, and 60.64 yuan, reflecting decreases of 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - Prices for major meat products have seen slight increases due to pre-festival stocking demands, with lean pork and boneless hind leg pork priced at 14.54 yuan and 12.58 yuan, rising by 3.0% and 3.4% respectively [3] - Fresh bone-in lamb and beef shank prices are at 35.22 yuan and 46.25 yuan, increasing by 2.5% and 0.9%, marking a new high for the past year [3] - The price of whole chickens is 10.78 yuan, up by 0.5%, while egg prices have surged by 13.9% to 4.60 yuan [3] Group 3: Aquatic Products - Prices for freshwater fish show mixed trends, with grass carp and crucian carp priced at 9.89 yuan and 12.60 yuan, increasing by 5.1% and 4.4% respectively [4] - Conversely, prices for white catfish and flower catfish are 4.87 yuan and 9.70 yuan, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.7% [4] Group 4: Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices are generally stable, with a total of 32 monitored vegetables showing 16 price increases and 16 decreases, maintaining an average retail price of 4.96 yuan [5] - Notable price increases include thin-skinned green peppers, winter melons, and Chinese cabbages, which rose by 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.0% respectively, with winter melons reaching a three-year high [5] - Conversely, cauliflower, broccoli, and celery saw price declines of 16.4%, 7.2%, and 7.0% respectively [5] Group 5: Fruit Prices - Fruit prices are predominantly on the rise, with 4 out of 5 monitored fruits increasing in price, leading to an average retail price of 4.78 yuan, up by 1.5% [6] - Specific prices for bananas and navel oranges are 4.03 yuan and 4.98 yuan, reflecting increases of 8.3% and a decrease of 5.0% respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for fish, particularly bluefish and grass carp, has surged ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to increased sales and stable prices in the Suzhou market [1][3]. Group 1: Fish Market Dynamics - Suzhou residents are preparing for the New Year by purchasing traditional dishes, with bluefish and grass carp being essential for the festive meal, symbolizing abundance [1]. - The sales of bluefish have significantly increased, with daily sales reportedly doubling in the weeks leading up to the holiday, and the supply of fish exceeding 280 tons daily, marking a nearly 50% increase week-on-week [1][3]. - The wholesale prices for bluefish range from 8 to 8.5 yuan per kilogram, while grass carp prices are between 8.5 and 9 yuan per kilogram, indicating a stable market despite increased demand [3]. Group 2: Vegetable Supply and Demand - The market has ensured a steady supply of essential vegetables for the New Year, with daily deliveries exceeding 3,000 tons, including local and imported varieties [3][5]. - The market has established direct procurement agreements with various agricultural bases to enhance supply chain efficiency, ensuring a diverse range of fresh produce is available for consumers [5]. - The proactive approach in sourcing from multiple regions has strengthened the supply network, allowing for a more resilient and reliable food supply during the holiday season [5].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]

Core Insights - The report provides a detailed overview of retail prices for various food items, highlighting both month-on-month and year-on-year changes in prices across different categories [1] Group 1: Grain Prices - Rice is priced at 6.51 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Flour is priced at 6.10 yuan/kg, remaining stable with no change month-on-month and a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cooking Oil Prices - Soybean oil is priced at 12.79 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [1] - Peanut oil is priced at 28.69 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - Canola oil is priced at 16.73 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1] - Blended oil is priced at 15.55 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] Group 3: Meat Prices - Pork (hind leg) is priced at 26.60 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a significant year-on-year decrease of 12.1% [1] - White strip chicken is priced at 24.82 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] Group 4: Egg Prices - Fresh eggs are priced at 10.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] Group 5: Aquatic Product Prices - Carp is priced at 21.95 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - Silver carp is priced at 22.16 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - Grass carp is priced at 23.58 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Crucian carp is priced at 29.83 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Large hairtail is priced at 48.32 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [1] - Large yellow croaker is priced at 55.93 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] Group 6: Vegetable Prices - The average price of vegetables is 8.47 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% but a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1] - Notable month-on-month price increases include pumpkin at 5.81 yuan/kg (3.8%) and winter melon at 5.57 yuan/kg (3.5%) [1] - Significant month-on-month price decreases include tomatoes at 9.74 yuan/kg (-3.1%) and eggplants at 8.90 yuan/kg (-2.5%) [1]

Core Insights - The procurement of "Nianyu" (New Year fish) in Suzhou is peaking as the Spring Festival approaches, with a clear market differentiation between traditional fish like Qingyu and Caoyu, which are in ample supply and seeing stable prices, and high-end fish like Guiyu, which are experiencing significant price increases due to rising costs and supply constraints [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Trends - The average price of Qingyu and Caoyu is around 8-9 yuan per jin, reflecting a decrease of approximately 25% compared to last year when prices were around 12 yuan per jin [3][5] - The sales volume of Qingyu and Caoyu has increased, with peak sales reaching up to 450 jin, primarily driven by orders from hotels and restaurants [3][7] - In contrast, the price of Guiyu has surged from 41 yuan per jin last year to 70 yuan this year due to increased breeding costs and tighter supply, leading to a noticeable decline in sales compared to traditional fish [3][7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring cost-effective options like Qingyu and Caoyu, prioritizing freshness and affordability over high-priced seafood [5][7] - The market reflects a shift towards rational consumption, with many families opting for more affordable fish options for their New Year meals, aligning with the traditional custom of having "Nianyu" [5][7] - The overall increase in the availability of traditional New Year fish contributes to a more vibrant and reassuring festive atmosphere, allowing families to celebrate the New Year with a sense of security and tradition [7]

注：蔬菜大类价格为30种蔬菜的加权平均价格。 | 品种 | 零售价格 | 环比 | 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/公斤、升) | (%) | (%) | | | 粮食 | | | | | | 大米 | 6.50 | -0.2 | -0.9 | | | 面粉 | 6.10 | -0.2 | -2.6 | | | 食用油 | | | | | | 豆油 | 12.77 | 0.0 | -1.5 | | | 花生油 | 28.65 | 0.1 | -0.2 | | | 菜籽油 | 16.71 | -0.1 | -1.2 | | | 调和油 | 15.53 | 0.2 | -0.8 | | | 猪肉 | | | | | | 后腿肉 | 26.72 | 0.4 | -12.6 | | | 鸡肉 | | | | | | 白条鸡 | 24.78 | 0.2 | -3.5 | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 鲜鸡蛋 | 10.63 | 0.7 | -9.1 | | | 水产品 | | | | | | 其中：鲤鱼 | 21.87 | 0.6 | -4.0 | | ...