广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.30%. The production is expected to increase slightly, while the demand pressure is gradually increasing, and the pessimistic expectation drives the market to weaken first [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 88,450 lots and an open interest of 78,183 lots, a net increase of 10,054 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The expectation of concentrated production cuts has failed. The weekly production is expected to enter a stage of slight month - on - month increase. The terminal photovoltaic demand is expected to fall to about 40GW, and the inventory has been increasing since April. There is no positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] 3.2 Market News - As of June 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90%. There was no bulk transaction of P - type polysilicon [5]

Group 1 - The company is exploring new paths for green development and accelerating its progress towards intelligent manufacturing [2] - The new PTMEG 08 unit has achieved a significant reduction in product color to below 10, marking a substantial improvement compared to the PTMEG 07 unit [2] - The company is actively engaging in technical exchanges in the new materials sector, focusing on the characteristics of Spandex 2.0, which offers advantages such as increased spinning speed and reduced production costs [2] Group 2 - The company is shifting from merely selling products to providing solutions, aiming to optimize product quality while maintaining cost advantages in the TPU industry [3] - Technical exchanges with Lianyungang Du Zhong New Ao Spandex Co., Ltd. have highlighted the need for innovation and lean management in the face of structural adjustments in the Spandex industry [3] - The company is committed to optimizing its industrial structure and enhancing its competitiveness in the energy chemical and liquid chemical logistics sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Junzheng Group is leveraging technology innovation and digital integration to drive industrial upgrades and green development in the energy and chemical sectors under the dual impetus of the "dual carbon" strategy and global industrial chain restructuring [1] Strategic Leadership: Building a Technological Innovation Ecosystem - By 2025, Junzheng Group aims to focus on "circular, low-carbon, green, and intelligent" directions, strengthening foundational capabilities through R&D investment and overcoming industry bottlenecks via technological breakthroughs [2] - The company has established an integrated circular economy industrial chain from coal, electricity, calcium carbide to PVC, caustic soda, environmentally friendly building materials, and silicon iron, creating a vertically integrated circular economy model [2] - Junzheng Group has implemented a unique "dual-wheel drive" model for innovation, promoting a technical innovation reward mechanism for all employees and building a collaborative innovation network through deep integration of industry, academia, and research [2] Technological Breakthroughs: Forging Industry-Leading Core Competencies - The company has continuously improved the value of its industrial chain through ongoing technological and management innovations, achieving significant reductions in industrial waste emissions and high-value utilization [3] - It has successfully reduced over 900,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually through waste management initiatives [3] - Junzheng Group has developed the world's first automated and intelligent control system for calcium carbide transfer, enhancing safety and efficiency in operations [3] Practical Challenges: A Multi-Dimensional Picture of Technological Breakthroughs - The company has made significant advancements in process optimization, successfully addressing challenges in its PTMEG 08 unit and achieving superior product quality compared to industry peers [4] - A project for the resource utilization of industrial salt from coking by-products has been implemented, achieving 100% recycling of by-product industrial salt [4] - The company has pioneered a "non-stop technical transformation" model, reducing the maintenance cycle of calcium carbide furnaces and extending electrode lifespan, setting a new industry standard [4] Ecological Co-Building: From Technology Output to Value Co-Creation - Junzheng Group's technological innovations resonate with industrial chain upgrades, transforming from a product supplier to a solution service provider by aligning R&D with downstream customer environmental needs [5] - The company is committed to optimizing its BDO distillation process to meet EU environmental regulations and is collaborating with customers to develop green materials [6] - Junzheng Group is fostering cross-industry integration by partnering with Huawei for a one-stop digital platform and implementing advanced ERP systems for seamless supply chain collaboration [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Heilongjiang Province focuses on technological innovation to lead comprehensive industrial revitalization, contributing to national strategic tasks such as manned spaceflight and Mars exploration [1][2] - The province has established a unified leadership for scientific and technological work, forming a Provincial Science and Technology Committee led by key provincial leaders [1] - Heilongjiang has achieved significant breakthroughs in various technologies, including shale oil and gas exploration, which supports the Daqing Oilfield in achieving a daily oil and gas equivalent production of over 1,000 tons [1][2] Group 2 - The province has secured 101 projects under the National Natural Science Foundation's regional innovation development joint fund, with direct funding of 260 million yuan, and has undertaken a total of 3,867 projects [2] - A total of 793 technology research projects have been organized in key areas such as modern agriculture and advanced manufacturing, with project funding amounting to 1.7 billion yuan [2] - The province has supported 100 major technology achievement transformation projects, resulting in new sales revenue of 9.429 billion yuan and new tax revenue of 1.698 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - An AI platform has been established to match scientific research teams with enterprise needs, leading to the transformation of 1,434 major technological achievements and generating economic benefits of 24.266 billion yuan [3] - The province is building innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems around universities and research institutions, with 1,021 technology-based enterprises gathered in these ecosystems [3] - High-tech achievements such as smart surgical robots and carbon fiber ski equipment are being transformed into enterprises, injecting strong momentum into local economic development [3]

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a volume contraction, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3359.9 points, reflecting a cumulative decline of 0.51% for the week [1] - Market sentiment is generally cautious as the end of the first half of the year approaches [1] ETF Performance - Bank-related ETFs have emerged as a "safe haven" during the weak market, with several bank ETFs reaching historical highs [1][4] - The overall performance of ETF products has been lackluster, with the median weekly return for over 1100 products at approximately -0.86% [1] - The bank ETF index fund recorded a weekly increase of 3.22%, with other related products also exceeding 3% in weekly gains [4] Top Performers - The top performers for the week include multiple bank ETFs, which have all achieved historical highs [4] - The wine ETF showed a weak rebound of 2.39%, entering the gainers' list, although its long-term trend remains uncertain [4] Underperformers - The decline in the market was predominantly driven by Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs, all of which experienced significant downturns [5][7] - The top 20 ETFs with the largest declines were all related to Hong Kong innovative drugs, with the leading product, the Hong Kong Medical ETF, dropping by 8.617% [5][7] - Additionally, gold-related ETFs also saw substantial declines, with several products falling over 6% due to a more than 2.5% drop in international gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jiayuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. has corrected the discrepancies in the number of shares held in its repurchase account due to the initiation of its 2025 share repurchase plan [1] Group 1: Share Repurchase Details - The company has established a dedicated repurchase securities account with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [1] - The number of shares in the repurchase account before cancellation was 44,165,685, with 34,165,685 shares set to be canceled on June 16, 2025 [1] - After the correction, the number of shares in the repurchase account is updated to 44,759,785, with 10,594,100 shares to be canceled [1] Group 2: Changes in Total Capital - Following the cancellation of shares, the total share capital of the company will decrease from 1,391,045,207 shares to 1,356,879,522 shares [1] - The registered capital will also be adjusted accordingly, with the company committing to complete the necessary business registration changes [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices continued to adjust amid external disturbances, with the Shanghai Composite Index starting to pull back around the 3400 level, leading to a noticeable valuation correction in previously popular sectors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell by 0.50%, 1.15%, and 1.66% respectively during the week [1] - The overall market sentiment is conservative as key variables are still needed to drive the market, with dividend assets maintaining high allocation value [1] ETF Performance - Dividend ETFs showed strong performance, with the Energy Chemical ETF leading with a gain of 4.73%, followed by several bank ETFs with gains exceeding 3.2% [2] - The average decline for all ETFs was 1.16%, with bond ETFs slightly increasing by 0.20% while stock and cross-border ETFs experienced significant pullbacks [1][2] Macro Perspective - With domestic interest rates entering a downward cycle, there is a shift in asset allocation focus from growth to returns, leading to increased attention on dividend assets [3] - June is seen as a favorable time for dividend asset allocation due to many companies implementing dividends, attracting investors to position themselves before dividend payouts [3] - Long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies, are expected to continue supporting dividend assets due to their stable income needs [3] Declining Sectors - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector, previously strong, faced a significant correction with multiple ETFs dropping over 8% due to changes in international tariff environments and geopolitical expectations [4][5] - Despite the pullback, institutions view the correction in innovative pharmaceuticals as a valuable opportunity, highlighting the sector's resilience and growth potential [5] Investment Opportunities - The first quarter's improved performance and outlook for sectors like chain pharmacies, medical devices, and generics present investment opportunities [6] - Focus on innovation, self-sufficiency, and domestic demand is recommended, with an emphasis on innovative pharmaceuticals and the potential of AI in healthcare as a key direction for 2025 [6] Fund Trends - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 326.93 billion yuan, with bond ETFs leading the inflow at 194 billion yuan, indicating a preference for defensive assets [7][9] - Credit bond ETFs experienced significant purchases, with the leading credit bond ETF seeing over 60 billion yuan in inflows [9] Trading Volume - The Short-term Bond ETF had the highest trading volume at 843.51 billion yuan, followed by the Shanghai Corporate Bond ETF and Silver Hua Li ETF [10] Upcoming ETF Launch - A new ETF, the Bosera CSI A100 ETF, will be launched, tracking a diversified index that includes leading companies across various sectors, providing stable and diversified investment opportunities [11]