Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rebound in international oil prices, nearly returning to levels prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement, but energy stocks have not strengthened correspondingly, indicating that the market views this conflict as a short-term disturbance [1] - As of now, the benchmark Brent crude oil price is approximately $73.25 per barrel, only 2% lower than before the tariff announcement on April 2, when President Trump announced additional "reciprocal tariffs" that caused a significant drop in oil prices [1] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, while Halliburton (HAL.US), a leading oilfield services company, has seen a 10% drop in its stock price during the same period, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the current price surge [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a "short-term conflict" is also reflected in the oil futures curve, where near-term crude oil prices are higher than long-term contracts, indicating that the market does not believe high oil prices will last long [2] - Analysts predict an oversupply of crude oil in the second half of the year, which could further depress prices, leading oil companies to reduce the number of drilling rigs [2] - According to Baker Hughes data, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased by 10% over the past year, and it is unlikely that companies that have already withdrawn from drilling will resume operations in the short term [2]

5. 贝克休斯油服：美国石油和天然气钻机数量降至2021年11月以来的最低水平。美国石油钻机数量降至 2021年10月以来的最低水平。 美元/泰铢 1. 中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放682亿元。 2. 泰国商务部长：泰铢兑美元汇率在37至38之间的水平是适当的。 3. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧美1.15对通胀目标而言并非重大阻碍。 金十整理：每日全球外汇、大宗商品市场要闻速递（6月16日） 外汇： 4. 欧洲央行管委内格尔：数据和预测表明欧洲央行的任务已经完成。欧洲央行最好保持灵活性。 大宗商品： 4. 在伊朗最近一轮袭击后，以色列关闭了其最大炼油厂的部分设施，导弹袭击导致以色列特拉维夫输油 管道破裂。 1. 柬埔寨警告禁止泰国农产品入境。 2. 韩国代理财政部长：将采取措施稳定食品价格。将延长油品税收减免至八月底。 3. 欧佩克秘书长：目前在供应或市场动态方面没有出现任何需要采取不必要措施的情况。 ...

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of geopolitical conflicts on investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the energy sector, financial markets, and the innovative pharmaceutical industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Conflict Impact**: If the Israel-Palestine conflict does not escalate, gold and oil prices are expected to rise by approximately 5% over the next two weeks. Conversely, U.S. stocks may decline by 1-3%, while A-shares could drop around 5% [1][3][13]. 2. **Market Pressures**: The current market faces multiple pressures, including a slowdown in policy trading, increased geopolitical risks, and high levels of small-cap stock crowding. This suggests a need for investors to avoid short-term volatility and shift towards large-cap stocks [1][4][5]. 3. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas to watch include: - Energy chain (oil and gas, shipping, and services), particularly low-valuation shipping stocks. - Large financial institutions, including regional banks and undervalued insurance companies in Hong Kong. - The public transportation sector benefiting from the summer peak season and reduced working hours [1][6]. 4. **Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector**: The innovative pharmaceutical market is currently at its highest crowding level in three years, yet there remains potential for growth. Focus should be on the ChiNext and STAR Market for innovative drugs [1][7][11][12]. 5. **U.S. CPI and Interest Rate Outlook**: The U.S. CPI is on a downward trend, reducing pressure for interest rate cuts. The upcoming FOMC meeting may signal future rate cuts, with expectations of a stable U.S. Treasury yield [1][8]. 6. **ETF Fund Flow and Small-Cap Stock Crowding**: As the Shanghai Composite Index approaches 3,400 points, ETF turnover rates are declining, indicating potential outflows. High levels of small-cap stock crowding suggest an impending correction in the A-share market [1][9]. 7. **Market Style Shift**: Since July 2024, small-cap stocks have seen significant gains, but as crowding levels peak, a shift towards large-cap stocks is anticipated, which could help avoid short-term adjustments and yield excess returns [2][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Innovative Drug Crowding**: The current crowding level in the innovative drug sector is 1.6 times, surpassing previous peaks in 2022. However, compared to the 2021 highs, there is still considerable room for growth [11][12]. 2. **Geopolitical Conflict Scenarios**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts varies; larger events like 9/11 or the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to significant market declines, while regional conflicts may have a more muted effect [3][13].

Group 1 - Shandong Molong's A-shares closed at 4.35 yuan with a strong limit-up, while H-shares saw a peak increase of 160% before closing at a 75.65% rise, with a trading volume of 7.468 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 672.8% [1] - The company's products, including oil casings, line pipes, and sucker rods, are primarily sold in major oil-producing regions such as Africa, South America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, covering over 50 countries and regions [1] - For 2024, Shandong Molong is projected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, but is expected to incur a net loss of 44.64 million yuan, indicating weak profitability [1] Group 2 - Shandong Molong was previously classified as a ST stock and only had its risk warning lifted on May 6, leading to a surge in A-shares and a significant increase of 188.51% in H-shares [2] - The actual impact of the Israeli attack on Iran is estimated to have a limited effect on oil exports, with Iran's projected oil export volume for 2025 being around 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day, accounting for only about 4% of global oil exports [2] - Recent reports indicate that Iran's energy infrastructure remains intact, with oil facilities and fuel supply operating normally, which has tempered market speculation [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both fell over 1%. Oil and gas stocks surged, with companies like Xinjin Power and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit. Nuclear pollution prevention concepts also saw gains, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment and CGN Technology reaching their limits. Gold stocks collectively strengthened, with Western Gold and Cuihua Jewelry hitting the daily limit. The beauty care sector declined, with Shuiyang shares dropping over 10%. Overall, more than 4,500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the red, with a total transaction volume of 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. Hot Topics Oil Services - The oil service sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhun Oil and Beiken Energy hitting the daily limit. Following an Israeli attack on Iran, WTI crude oil futures rose by over 10% [4][5]. - Zhun Oil shares rose by 9.94% to 6.86 yuan, with a market cap of 1.789 billion yuan. Beiken Energy increased by 10.03% to 10.09 yuan, with a market cap of 1.957 billion yuan. Libet shares rose by 10% to 12.54 yuan, with a market cap of 5.631 billion yuan [5]. Nuclear Pollution Prevention - Stocks related to nuclear pollution prevention also surged, with Jieqiang Equipment, Beihua Co., and Huashengchang hitting their daily limits. Reports indicated that Israel attacked nuclear facilities in Iran, which contributed to the rise in these stocks [7][8]. - Jieqiang Equipment shares increased by 20.01% to 31.43 yuan, with a market cap of 2.692 billion yuan. Beihua Co. rose by 10.01% to 14.29 yuan, with a market cap of 7.846 billion yuan [8]. Military Industry - The military sector also experienced an uptick, with companies like Hainengda and Chengfei Integration hitting their daily limits. The upcoming Paris Air Show, scheduled for June 16-22, is expected to further boost this sector [9][10]. - Hainengda shares rose by 10.03% to 12.51 yuan, with a market cap of 16.047 billion yuan. Chengfei Integration increased by 10.01% to 36.72 yuan, with a market cap of 13.173 billion yuan [10]. Other Observations - Gold stocks, shipping, and blockchain sectors showed localized rotations, while the IP economy, media, and consumer sectors faced the largest declines [11].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant surge in oil and petrochemical stocks, with Shandong Molong (00568.HK) experiencing a peak increase of over 160% before closing with a 100% gain [1] - Other oil-related stocks also performed well, with Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033.HK) rising over 60% and United Energy Group (00467.HK) increasing by more than 40% [1] - The surge in stock prices was attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions following Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, which caused a major shock in the oil market [1] Group 2 - ING warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the global supply of 14 million barrels of oil per day could be at risk, potentially driving oil prices up to $120 per barrel [2] - Shandong Molong's products, including oil casings and rods, are in high demand in major oil-producing regions such as Africa, South America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, covering over 50 countries [2] - The company emphasizes an export-oriented sales strategy and aims to enhance its international presence and competitiveness, with new orders secured in countries like Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Ecuador, and Egypt [2] Group 3 - The sustainability of the recent stock price surge remains uncertain, with market analysts indicating that the continuation of geopolitical risk premiums will depend on Iran's response to the airstrikes [3] - If Tehran's reaction is limited and energy flows remain uninterrupted, the risk premium may dissipate quickly; however, any signs of retaliation or supply disruptions could maintain high volatility in oil prices [3]

2025 年 6 月 13 日 行业研究 中国钾肥海运进口合同达成，持续关注钾肥行业 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 78 期（20250613） 要点 2025 年中国钾肥海运进口合同达成。2025 年 6 月 4 日，印度钾肥进口大合 同价格确定，俄罗斯钾肥公司（BPC）与印度化肥进口商 IPL 以 349 美元/吨 的价格达成交易，发货至 2025 年 12 月份，货量为 65 万吨。2025 年的印度 钾肥进口大合同价格较去年上涨 70 美元/吨，涨幅 25%。印度基本奠定了大 合同的基础价格。2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、中 农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR。根据中国钾肥大合同的价 格来核算成本，按照 6 月 12 日的人民币汇率 7.18 计算，折合中国标准氯化 钾 60%含量港口成本价格在 2830 元/吨左右，各个港口的港杂费用不一。未 来新合同的执行，将及时保障今年下半年及明年春季的货源供应，在提升钾 肥供应链保障能力、支撑农业稳产增收、筑牢国家粮食安全屏障等方面发挥 关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Haimer Technology, Shandong New Journey Energy Co., Ltd., and its actual controller, Su Zhancai, are planning to transfer their equity and control of the company, which may lead to a change in the company's controlling shareholder and actual controller [2][3] Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Haimer Technology announced on June 9 that it is in the process of planning a share transfer and control change, which may result in a new controlling shareholder [2] - The company has received notification from Shandong New Journey and Su Zhancai regarding the control change, with the expected transaction counterpart being a natural person who will acquire at least 5% of the total share capital and corresponding voting rights [2] - As of March 31, 2025, Shandong New Journey holds 134 million shares, accounting for 26.31% of the total share capital, while Su Zhancai directly holds 4.25 million shares, accounting for 0.83% [3] Group 2: Business Performance and Challenges - Haimer Technology has been in the oil service industry for 30 years, growing from a small enterprise to a leading brand in multiphase metering, with products sold in regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, and North America [3] - Despite its leading technology and international brand advantages, the company faces challenges such as high customer concentration, significant impact from macroeconomic fluctuations and oil price volatility, and limited negotiation power [3] - The company reported a revenue of less than 600 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 19.36%, with a net loss of 228 million yuan, primarily due to intensified industry competition [5] Group 3: Strategic Direction and Future Plans - The company aims to enhance its profitability and risk resistance by focusing on strengthening its core business and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Haimer Technology plans to explore new growth opportunities in emerging industries while solidifying its traditional business, leveraging policies that encourage new productive forces [6] - The company has completed a non-public offering, resulting in a cash flow of 98.67 million yuan from operating activities in 2024, with total cash reserves reaching 624 million yuan by the end of 2024 [6]

Group 1 - China's investment and construction projects in the energy sector for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Angola from 2020 to 2024 total $50.28 billion, with major oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion, showing a year-on-year increasing trend [1] - The oil service equipment industry has high standards, long application cycles, and requires dual certification from both the industry and clients, creating significant technical barriers and a favorable competitive landscape [1] - Leading domestic oil service equipment companies, such as Jereh and Neway, have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jereh's orders in the region expected to double in 2024 and Neway's overseas orders increasing by 60% in Q1 2025, with Middle East and Africa orders making up 44% of the total [1] Group 2 - The long-term energy transition concerns have led oil companies to favor the development of offshore oil and gas resources, which have superior resource endowments and lower barrel costs, as oil prices remain stable [2] - The development of offshore oil and gas resources is gaining momentum, with advancements in technology and equipment enhancing the competitiveness of China's oil service industry in international markets [2] - It is recommended to focus on resource stocks and oil service stocks that demonstrate stable performance [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the oil service sector include CNOOC Services (02883), Sinopec Oilfield Services (01033), Giant Oilfield Services (03303), Anton Oilfield Services (03337), and Honghua Group (00196) [3]