Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical industry, particularly for polyester and refining companies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading firms such as Tongkun Co. and Hengli Petrochemical [17][18]. Core Insights - The EIA forecasts a global crude oil supply surplus of 1.64 million barrels per day for the current year, with adjustments made to oil and natural gas price predictions [4][15]. - The IEA and OPEC have both revised their global oil demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026, with IEA projecting increases of 680,000 and 700,000 barrels per day respectively, while OPEC expects increases of 1.29 million and 1.38 million barrels per day [8][44]. - The report highlights a recovery in the drilling day rates for offshore rigs, indicating a positive trend in the oil service sector [22][37]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - EIA expects global oil and liquid fuel consumption to rise by 980,000 barrels per day in 2025, reaching 103.7 million barrels per day, and by 1.19 million barrels per day in 2026 [46]. - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.28 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 610,000 barrels per day to this growth [12][46]. Price Predictions - EIA has adjusted its forecast for 2025 average crude oil prices to $67 per barrel, down by $2 from previous estimates, and $51 per barrel for 2026, down by $7 [4][47]. - The report notes a decline in refining margins, with Singapore's refining margin dropping to $15.07 per barrel [51]. Industry Performance - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the polyester sector, with expectations of improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [17]. - Key companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are highlighted as having favorable competitive positions due to lower operational costs and market conditions [17][18].

8月13日，上证指数涨0.48%，收报3683.46点，恒生指数涨2.58%，收报25613.67点。 石化油服AH溢价达173.49%，位居AH股溢价率第四位。当日收盘，石化油服A股报2.05元，涨幅 0.99%，H股报0.82港元，上涨2.5%。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 资料显示，中石化石油工程技术服务股份有限公司(简称SSC)是中国石化集团公司控股的中国大型的综 合油气工程与技术服务专业公司。拥有超过60年的经营业绩和丰富的项目执行经验,是中国一体化全产 业链油服领先者。2012年6月28日,中国石化集团公司实施石油工程专业化整合重组,将胜利油田、中原油 田、江汉油田、江苏油田、河南油田、华北石油局、西南石油局、华东石油局8家油田企业的石油工程 业务整体剥离,与集团公司总部石油工程管理部及国际石油工程公司、上海海洋石油局整合,成立中石化 石油工程技术服务有限公司。2014年,公司利用仪征化纤上市平台在上海、香港两地同步上市。股票代 码SH600871,HK1033,简称石化油服。 *注：AH股是指同时在A股和港股上市的公司，溢价（A/H）越大，说明H股相比A股越便宜。 ...

8月12日，上证指数涨0.5%，收报3665.92点，恒生指数涨0.25%，收报24969.68点。 本文源自：金融界 石化油服AH溢价达177.02%，位居AH股溢价率第四位。当日收盘，石化油服A股报2.03元，平盘报收， H股报0.8港元，上涨1.27%。 作者：行情君 资料显示，中石化石油工程技术服务股份有限公司(简称SSC)是中国石化集团公司控股的中国大型的综 合油气工程与技术服务专业公司。拥有超过60年的经营业绩和丰富的项目执行经验,是中国一体化全产 业链油服领先者。2012年6月28日,中国石化集团公司实施石油工程专业化整合重组,将胜利油田、中原油 田、江汉油田、江苏油田、河南油田、华北石油局、西南石油局、华东石油局8家油田企业的石油工程 业务整体剥离,与集团公司总部石油工程管理部及国际石油工程公司、上海海洋石油局整合,成立中石化 石油工程技术服务有限公司。2014年,公司利用仪征化纤上市平台在上海、香港两地同步上市。股票代 码SH600871,HK1033,简称石化油服。 *注：AH股是指同时在A股和港股上市的公司，溢价（A/H）越大，说明H股相比A股越便宜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the fluctuating decline in international oil prices in the first half of the year, oil service companies have reported positive performance, with both revenue and net profit showing upward trends [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jereh Group (002353.SZ) achieved a revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.21%, and a net profit of 1.241 billion yuan, up 14.04% [2]. - DeStone Group (301158.SZ) reported a revenue of 277 million yuan, a 26.60% increase, and a net profit of 45.17 million yuan, up 29.24% [2]. - Shandong Molong (002490.SZ) forecasted a non-recurring net profit of 0 to 3 million yuan, representing a growth of 100.00% to 102.61% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in performance is attributed to a rise in capital expenditures by oil and gas companies, driven by a favorable market environment and higher oil prices [1][4]. - Jereh Group secured new orders worth 9.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.65%, with total orders reaching 12.386 billion yuan, up 34.76% [3]. - DeStone Group noted significant collaborations with major domestic oil companies, enhancing its market share in various regions [3]. Group 3: Profit Margins - Despite revenue growth, the gross profit margins for oil service companies are declining, with Jereh Group's overall gross margin down by 3.46% and high-end equipment manufacturing margin down by 5.25% [3]. - DeStone Group's tool product margin decreased by 1.90%, and rental and maintenance margin fell by 2.02% [3]. Group 4: Industry Context - The oil service industry heavily relies on capital expenditures from major oil companies, with the "Seven-Year Action Plan" emphasizing increased oil and gas exploration and development [4][5]. - The plan aims to boost domestic oil production from 189 million tons in 2018 to 213 million tons by 2024, significantly impacting oil service companies' performance [5]. - International oil prices, while experiencing a downward trend, remain at historically high levels, influencing capital expenditures and overall industry health [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in losses for the first half of 2025, projecting a loss attributable to shareholders of no more than 15 million HKD, compared to an estimated loss of approximately 400,000 HKD for the first half of 2024, marking an increase of no more than 14.6 million HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected loss for the first half of 2025 is expected to be no more than 15 million HKD [1] - The estimated loss for the first half of 2024 is approximately 400,000 HKD, indicating a substantial increase in losses [1] - The increase in losses is primarily attributed to a significant reduction in revenue from enhanced production services provided to shale gas fields in Southwest China [1] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - A major client has delayed several enhanced production projects to the second half of 2025 based on its internal extraction plans, contributing to the revenue decline [1] - The expiration of a supervisory service contract in the Middle East in the first half of 2024 has also led to a decrease in the company's revenue, as there was no income generated from service contracts during the reporting period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Baikin Oilfield Services (02178.HK), anticipates a significant increase in losses for the first half of 2025, projecting a loss of no more than 15.0 million HKD compared to a loss of approximately 0.4 million HKD in the first half of 2024, indicating an increase in losses by no more than 14.6 million HKD [1] Group 1 - The increase in losses is primarily attributed to a substantial decrease in revenue from enhanced production services provided to shale gas fields in Southwest China, as a major client has postponed several enhancement projects to the second half of 2025 based on its internal extraction plans [1] - Additionally, the expiration of a supervisory service contract in the Middle East during the first half of 2024 has also contributed to the decline in revenue, as there was no income generated from service contracts during the reporting period [1]

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting the negative feedback loop of capacity imbalance and the importance of government intervention to restore balance [1][12] - It emphasizes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][12] Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax regulation enhances the relative attractiveness of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to the tax, while government bonds lose their tax exemption [2][3][13] - The adjustment in tax rates is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds by approximately 10 basis points, with potential increases in relative value for credit bonds by 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments [2][3][14] Industry Analysis - The asset operation and maintenance (O&M) industry is gaining importance post-capital formation peak, with growth driven more by product development than by personnel or capital [4][15] - The report indicates that the O&M market is projected to grow significantly, with the current market size at approximately 2.44 trillion and expected to reach around 5.5 trillion in ten years [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Borui Data, Rongzhi Rixin, and Xianheng International, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality O&M services [4][15] Electronic Industry - The ASIC business model requires service providers to have strong IP design and SoC design capabilities, with major players like Broadcom and Marvell holding significant market shares [5][16][17] - The custom chip market is projected to reach $55.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for AI acceleration [5][16][17] - The report highlights the potential for margin pressure in the custom chip business due to increased competition from domestic firms entering the AI ASIC market [5][16][17]

Core Insights - Jerry Holdings (002353) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit both increasing, particularly notable was the 38.38% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue [1][2] - Despite the positive financial results, the company faces challenges in its transition to renewable energy, particularly with losses in its lithium battery projects and uncertainties in international market expansion [1][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jerry Holdings achieved operating revenue of 6.901 billion yuan, a 39.21% increase from 4.957 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2] - The high-end equipment manufacturing segment generated revenue of 4.224 billion yuan, accounting for 61.22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 22.42% [2] - The oil and gas engineering and technical services segment saw revenue of 2.069 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 88.14% year-on-year, becoming a key driver of revenue growth [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.241 billion yuan, a 14.04% increase, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.231 billion yuan, up 33.90% [3] Market Expansion - Jerry Holdings' natural gas-related business achieved a revenue growth of 112.69%, with a gross margin increase of 5.61% and new orders rising by 43.28% [3] - The company successfully expanded into the North African oil service market, contributing to a 38.38% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, which totaled 3.295 billion yuan [3][4] - The company emphasized the importance of selecting high-quality orders to improve profit margins in overseas markets [3] Renewable Energy Transition - Jerry Holdings is actively pursuing a transition to renewable energy, with the renewable and recycling business segment achieving revenue of 328 million yuan, a 65.74% increase [6] - The company has invested approximately 1.512 billion yuan in a lithium-ion battery anode material integration project, which has incurred losses of 248 million yuan to date [7] - Despite the strategic focus on dual main businesses in oil and gas and renewable energy, the lithium battery project has not yet turned profitable due to intense market competition and fluctuating raw material prices [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q2 non-net profit, which grew by 37% year-on-year, indicating that the performance inflection point has been reached [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue and profit in Q2 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 4.21 billion yuan, a 49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 780 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing in H1 2025 was 4.22 billion yuan, up 22.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by natural gas compression equipment [2] - The oil and gas engineering and technical services segment saw revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, an impressive 88.1% increase year-on-year, mainly benefiting from EPC deliveries in the Middle East [2] Margin and Cash Flow Performance - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 32.2%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.4%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The domestic gross margin was 27.1%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the delivery schedule of drilling and completion products [3] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 3.14 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 196% year-on-year, attributed to excellent collection quality from overseas clients [3] International Market Expansion - The company is entering a harvest phase in its overseas layout, with the Middle East and North America being key markets for growth [4] - The Middle East is experiencing urgent economic transformation needs, leading to increased natural gas extraction and expansion of the natural gas equipment and EPC market, where the company is gaining market share [4] - In North America, the company is well-positioned to tap into the large replacement market for fracturing equipment, supported by its performance advantages [4] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company at 3.03 billion yuan for 2025, 3.49 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.99 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [4]

Core Insights - Jerry Holdings (SZ002353) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit both increasing, particularly driven by a 38.38% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue [2][4][5] - Despite the positive financial results, the company faces challenges in its transition to renewable energy, particularly with losses in its lithium battery projects and uncertainties in international expansion [2][6][8] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.901 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 39.21% increase from 4.957 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [3] - High-end equipment manufacturing generated 4.224 billion yuan, accounting for 61.22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 22.42% [3] - The oil and gas engineering and technical services segment saw a significant revenue increase of 88.14%, contributing 2.069 billion yuan, driven by rising demand in both domestic and international markets [3][4] Business Segments - The natural gas-related business reported a revenue growth of 112.69%, with a 5.61% increase in gross margin, indicating strong market expansion [4] - Overseas operations generated 3.295 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.38% increase, with new orders up by 24.16%, showcasing robust growth in international markets [4][8] Renewable Energy Transition - The renewable energy and recycling segment achieved a revenue of 328 million yuan, marking a 65.74% year-on-year increase, highlighting its potential as a growth driver [6] - The company is actively pursuing a dual business strategy focusing on both oil and gas and renewable energy, having entered the lithium battery recycling sector in 2023 [6] Challenges in Renewable Energy - The lithium battery project has been a significant source of losses, with cumulative investments reaching 1.512 billion yuan and a reported loss of 248 million yuan as of the reporting period [7] - The company plans to invest approximately 2.5 billion yuan in the lithium-ion battery negative material integration project, but has faced delays due to market conditions [7] International Market Dynamics - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, reducing reliance on the domestic market, but faces challenges from geopolitical tensions and varying regulations across different regions [8] - The complexity of international operations increases management costs and operational risks, which could impact future growth [8]