有色金属 点击小程序查看报告原文 夯实国家资源安全保障，增储上产及"十五五"进一步激活中国矿企成长性 我国战略矿产资源安全保供风险上升，主要体现在大部分战略矿产资源对外依存度偏高，且中国战略矿产资源的本土供应在全球范围内的成本竞争力较 弱。在全球地缘风险系统性抬升的背景下，新一轮战略性矿产国内找矿行动于2023年初全面启动，我国矿产资源管理改革深入推进，铜铝金等行业高质量 发展成为2025年有色行业政策主旋律之一，"十五五"规划继续强调战略矿产资源开发和储备，夯实国家资源安全保障。展望未来，我们认为有色行业有望 迎来货币、需求和供应共振向上的牛市。我们认为，在有色价格有望整体上行的背景下，增储上产及"十五五"规划进一步激活中国矿企成长性，有色矿业 公司有望迎来重大发展机遇期，配置价值凸显。 我国战略矿产资源安全保供风险上升。 一是中国大部分战略矿产资源对外依存度偏高。我们的测算表明，2024年，除了稀土、锌等少数中国的优势资源 外，绝大多数矿产资源对外依存度均高于50%。二是中国战略矿产资源的本土供应在全球范围内的成本竞争力较弱。我们对中国关键大宗商品的本土供应 在全球边际成本曲线的位置进行分析，除了稀土、镍 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit by 31.28% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.209 billion yuan, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [2][5] - The drilling business has seen a substantial improvement in day rates due to the commencement of high-day-rate projects, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2][5] - The company is committed to a "technology-driven" strategy, which is expected to support stable growth in its oilfield technology services business in the future [2][5] - The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is significant, and the company is expected to benefit from China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) ongoing efforts to increase reserves and production [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 34.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was 1.246 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.13% year-on-year growth [2][5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 18.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [11] Drilling Business - The company’s drilling platforms operated for 14,784 days in the first three quarters, a 12.3% increase year-on-year [11] - The average day rate for platforms in the first half of 2025 was 91,000 USD/day, up 5.8% year-on-year, with semi-submersible platform day rates increasing by 27.6% [11] Technology and Market Strategy - The oilfield technology service business has seen a growth in operational volume despite a slight decline in market size [11] - The company aims to increase the revenue share of its oilfield technology services from 57% in 2024 to 60% by 2030 [11] Market Outlook - The global exploration and development of offshore and unconventional oil and gas resources are expected to be key growth areas, with CNOOC's capital expenditure budget for 2025 set between 125 billion and 135 billion yuan [11]

智通财经APP获悉，石油股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨3.68%，报21.96港元；中石油 (00857)涨2.94%，报8.76港元；中石化(00386)涨2.1%，报4.38港元。 光大证券指出，面对新一轮油价波动周期，"三桶油"深化增储上产，加强成本管控，以自身发展的确定 性应对外部环境的不确定性，在油价下行期的业绩韧性凸显。"三桶油"将继续加强增储上产，中国石 油、中国石化、中国海油25年油气当量产量计划分别增长1.6%、1.5%、5.9%；加快中下游炼化业务转 型，炼油板块推进低成本"油转化"、高价值"油转特"，销售板块积极向"油气氢电服"综合能源服务商转 型，化工业务稳步提升高附加值产品比例。"三桶油"有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成长，长期投资价值 凸显。 消息面上，11月2日，OPEC+主产八国宣布12月将进一步增产13.7万桶/日，同时由于季节性因素暂停 2026年1至3月的增产。此外，美国对俄两大石油生产商实施制裁后。民生证券指出，由于OPEC+于26 年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，叠加美国对俄罗斯的制裁影响，当前市场悲观情绪好转，但对需求较 弱、供应过剩的情绪仍在，预计油价短 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huazhong Securities has given China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) a "buy" rating due to its steady growth in oil and gas net production and strengthened cost competitiveness [1] - CNOOC is actively advancing new project launches, which will contribute to continuous reserve increases and production growth [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the risk factors, including the potential for new project progress to fall short of expectations, changes in industry policies, and significant fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 312.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 billion RMB, down 12.59% year-on-year [1]. - The average realized oil price for the first three quarters was 68.29 USD per barrel, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, while the average realized gas price increased by 1.0% to 7.86 USD per thousand cubic feet [5]. - The company achieved a net production of 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from new projects [5]. - The company continues to maintain its position as a leading international energy company, with a strong resource base and production growth capabilities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 454.1 billion RMB, 485.4 billion RMB, and 509.7 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 145.6 billion RMB, 154.1 billion RMB, and 159.3 billion RMB [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.8 times for 2025, 8.4 times for 2026, and 8.1 times for 2027 [6]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 30.1%, indicating strong financial stability [2]. Production and Development - The company successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures and made 5 new discoveries in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - A total of 14 new projects were put into production during the first three quarters, including significant developments in offshore oil fields [5]. Market Position - The company is the largest oil and gas producer in China's offshore areas, with a well-established exploration and production infrastructure [5]. - The company has diversified its asset structure globally, holding interests in major oil and gas projects in regions such as Guyana and Brazil [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed resilience in Q3 performance due to effective cost control and production increases despite fluctuating international oil prices [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 312.5 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 102.0 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 104.9 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 32.4 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Oil and Gas Production - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 57.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with natural gas production rising by 11.6% [6]. - The average realized oil price was 68.29 USD per barrel, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the average realized natural gas price was 7.86 USD per thousand cubic feet, up 1.0% year-on-year [6]. Cost Management - The company maintained a competitive cost structure, with the main cost per barrel of oil equivalent at 27.35 USD, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [7]. - Operating expenses per barrel were 7.12 USD, down 1.2% year-on-year, and depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) costs were 13.87 USD, down 0.6% year-on-year [7]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 86.0 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with a budget of 125.0 to 135.0 billion yuan for 2025 [8]. - The production target for 2025 is set at 76.0 to 78.0 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q3, indicating a mixed performance amid fluctuating oil prices and production challenges [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 102 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 100.9 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 104.9 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.4 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter; non-recurring net profit was 31.6 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with oil production at 445 million barrels (up 5.4%) and natural gas production at 7.775 billion cubic feet (up 11.6%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, net oil and gas production was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, with oil production at 149 million barrels (down 1.1%) and natural gas production at 2.613 billion cubic feet (down 0.7%) [2]. - The average realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a Brent crude discount of $1.55 per barrel, indicating a narrowing discount compared to previous periods [2]. Cost Management - The company reported a barrel of oil equivalent cost of $27.35 in the first three quarters, down $0.79 year-on-year, while Q3 cost was approximately $28.16, up $1.31 quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company maintained a period expense ratio of 3.12% in the first three quarters, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the USD exchange rate [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 141.7 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with Q3 cash flow at 62.6 billion yuan, up 21% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 86 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with exploration, development, and production expenditures showing mixed trends [3]. - The company plans capital expenditure of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, expecting stable cash flow to support dividend levels [3]. - Due to declining oil price expectations, the company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected profits of 129.8 billion, 134.4 billion, and 138.1 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 10X, 10X, and 9X respectively [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21,693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, and a net profit of 1,263 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7,192 billion, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 423 billion, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 21.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability [1] Production and Pricing - The company's oil and gas production reached 137.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with crude oil production at 71.4 million barrels, up 0.8% [2] - The average oil price for the first three quarters was 65.55 USD per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw an estimated oil price of approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, up 1.9 USD from the previous quarter [2] - The upstream segment reported an operating profit of 125.1 billion, down 13% year-on-year, but is expected to maintain a good performance due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Refining and Chemical Sector - The company processed 104.1 million barrels of crude oil in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the production of refined oil products was 89.59 million tons, down 0.4% [3] - The refining segment achieved an operating profit of 16.2 billion, up 6.3% year-on-year, with refining business profits increasing by 22.7% [3] - The chemical business, however, saw a significant decline in profits, down 48.9%, indicating challenges in that segment [3] Sales Performance - The total sales of refined oil products reached 120.876 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while domestic sales were 89.64 million tons, up 0.05% [4] - The sales segment reported an operating profit of 11.6 billion, down 9.9% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on refined oil sales [4] - Natural gas sales reached 2,185 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 1,709 billion cubic feet, up 4.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 156.1 billion, 160.6 billion, and 166.9 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 11X, 10X, and 10X, respectively, and maintains a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) [5] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a stable development in the natural gas business [5] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2,169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 126.3 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.5% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,969.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 156.142 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [4] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.85 yuan [4] - The company’s oil and gas production reached 1.377 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [5] - The average oil price for Q3 2025 was approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 USD [5] Operational Insights - The refining segment showed improvement, with a processing volume of 1.041 billion barrels of crude oil in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [5] - The sales of refined oil products reached 12.0876 million tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [5] - The natural gas sales volume was 218.5 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 23.8% in the natural gas sales segment [5]

Core Insights - The oil and gas industry in China has successfully navigated complex international energy challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving a production equivalent of 400 million tons and enhancing energy security through various strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Achievements - The industry has discovered 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with crude oil production exceeding 200 million tons and natural gas production reaching 260 billion cubic meters, ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" targets [2][3] - Significant advancements in oil and gas extraction technologies have been made, particularly in the Ordos Basin and Tarim Basin, leading to increased production and exploration of deep resources [2][6] - The domestic oil and gas production has maintained a steady output of over 200 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 6% for natural gas, contributing to a reduction in external dependency [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The industry has shifted from following to leading in technology, with 54.3% of new oil and gas reserves coming from deep and ultra-deep layers, significantly enhancing self-sufficiency [6][7] - Major breakthroughs in deep-water drilling technologies have been achieved, with the "Deep Sea No. 1" project marking a historic leap in exploration capabilities [7][8] - The integration of digital technologies and smart systems has improved exploration success rates and operational safety, driving the industry's high-quality development [8][9] Group 3: Future Directions - The oil and gas sector is set to enter a new phase of high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on safety, efficiency, and green innovation [1][9] - The industry will increasingly explore unconventional resources and deep-water areas, with a strong emphasis on infrastructure development for gas storage and peak-shaving capabilities [9][10] - The transition towards a low-carbon future will be supported by advancements in hydrogen energy and carbon capture technologies, promoting a comprehensive energy base [10][11]