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策略专题:牛市若出现小平台,如何应对?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-22 09:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During a bull market, market corrections are often completed in a short period. For small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks, it may be a good buying opportunity. Chasing the previous strong sectors during this period has a high probability of success, and even chasing at the market peak can often yield positive returns [1][4]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends [1][5]. - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related [1][6]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Respond When a Small Platform Appears in a Bull Market 1.1 Chasing the Previous Strong Sectors During a Small - Scale Bull - Market Correction Has the Highest Probability of Success - During a bull market, small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks may be a good buying opportunity. When considering whether to chase the previous high - performing sectors or switch to low - lying sectors for catch - up, historical data shows that in the "first wave of rise - platform pullback - second wave of rise" scenarios, the top 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise are likely to have the largest pullbacks during the adjustment but also tend to have higher increases in the second wave of rise. The bottom 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise usually do not end up at the bottom in the second wave of rise [10]. - When buying at the market's highest point before adjustment (fully "chasing up"), the TOP20% group and the DOWN20% group have similar returns, but the TOP20% group has a higher probability of success and always maintains positive returns. When buying at the lowest point of the market adjustment, the TOP20% group is likely to have better returns [4][13]. 1.2 When Not to Chase Up - The statement that "chasing the previous strong sectors during a small - scale bull - market correction has the highest probability of success" is the result of strong sectors with excess returns continuing to lead the rise and sectors with weakening marginal excess returns rising in line with the market. Excluding sectors with weakening marginal excess returns may be a good choice when a "small - scale bull - market correction" occurs [16]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends, possibly because the sector has completed the pricing of its own logic and there is no incremental logic to change this situation. Conversely, if a sector can maintain strong excess returns during a correction, it is likely to continue to do so in the future [5][19]. 1.3 Which Industries Currently Have Weakening Marginal Excess Returns - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening marginal excess returns. Sectors such as the consumer electronics sector have had continuous excess returns relative to the broader market for 10 weeks. As of August 20, 2025, sectors with continuous excess returns of five weeks or more include general equipment, special equipment, electronic chemicals, rubber, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [20]. - Sectors that have shown weakening marginal excess returns include the gaming sector in AI applications, the aviation equipment sector in the military industry, and the wind power and glass - fiber sectors in the "anti - involution" category [20]. 1.4 How to Find Sectors That May Earn Odds When Excess Returns Weaken - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. Examples include special steel from March to July 2009, rail transit equipment from February to April 2015, rural commercial banks from December 2016 to April 2017, energy metals, small metals, general steel, and coal mining from May to September 2017, and chemical fibers and agricultural product processing from November 2020 to January 2021 [23]. - These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related. Before the correction, the rise is due to market beta and the difference between weak reality and strong expectations. During the correction, the negative excess return is due to the friction when moving from long - term speculation to the reality - realization stage. After the correction, the excess return comes from the reality catching up with the strong expectations. Resource sectors price their own logic more "slowly" than growth sectors. When the marginal excess returns of growth stocks weaken, it is difficult for them to restart without new incremental logic. However, for resource sectors, the realization of logic (i.e., the realization of supply - demand structure expectations) is still an incremental logic [6][23].
航空装备板块8月22日涨2.28%,迈信林领涨,主力资金净流入4800.16万元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-08-22 08:46
Market Overview - The aviation equipment sector rose by 2.28% on August 22, with Mai Xin Lin leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3825.76, up 1.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12166.06, up 2.07% [1] Stock Performance - Mai Xin Lin (688685) closed at 60.00, up 9.69% with a trading volume of 115,300 shares and a transaction value of 675 million [1] - Fei Li Hua (300395) closed at 100.78, up 7.89% with a trading volume of 328,500 shares and a transaction value of 3.271 billion [1] - Zhong Wu Drone (688297) closed at 59.14, up 4.84% with a trading volume of 199,100 shares and a transaction value of 1.137 billion [1] - Li Jun Co., Ltd. (002651) closed at 15.88, up 4.47% with a trading volume of 1,528,100 shares and a transaction value of 2.312 billion [1] - Hongdu Aviation (600316) closed at 42.49, up 2.88% with a trading volume of 254,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.072 billion [1] Capital Flow - The aviation equipment sector saw a net inflow of 48.0016 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 211 million [2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 259 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Fei Li Hua (300395) had a net inflow of 242 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 69.3025 million from speculative funds [3] - Hong Fa Power (600893) saw a net inflow of 164 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 110 million from speculative funds [3] - Guang Qi Technology (002625) had a net inflow of 57.187 million from institutional investors, while experiencing a net outflow of 63.1011 million from retail investors [3]
洪都航空: 江西洪都航空工业股份有限公司关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-22 08:12
证券代码:600316 证券简称:洪都航空 公告编号:2025-021 江西洪都航空工业股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ?会议召开时间:2025 年 9 月 1 日(星期一)13:00-14:00 ?会议召开地点:上海证券交易所上证路演中心(网址: https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/) ?会议召开方式:上证路演中心网络互动 ?投资者可于 2025 年 8 月 25 日(星期一)至 8 月 29 日(星期 五)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页,点击"提问预征集"栏目 或通过公司邮箱 hd600316@hongdu.com.cn 向公司提问,公司将在说 明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 江西洪都航空工业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司" )预计将于 。为便于广大投资 者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年半年度的经营成果、财务状况,公 司计划于 2025 年 9 月 1 日(星期一)13:00-14:00 举行 ...
打响极限攻坚测量保卫战
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the critical role of precision measurement in the aviation manufacturing supply chain, emphasizing the urgency and teamwork required to meet stringent delivery deadlines for essential components like heat exchangers [1][6]. Group 1: Collaborative Response - The heat exchanger is large and complex, making it challenging for a single operator to handle safely and effectively [2]. - The measurement team demonstrated efficient collaboration, with experienced members quickly forming pairs to ensure safe handling and precise positioning of the component [2][5]. - Each successful operation reflects the team's commitment to completing the task, showcasing their determination despite physical challenges [2]. Group 2: Time-Sensitive Precision - The timeline for the measurement task was extremely tight, with only a few days allocated for complex programming, precise measurement, and data analysis [3]. - The intricate design of the heat exchanger required careful planning of measurement paths to avoid interference and ensure data accuracy [3][4]. - Team members willingly extended their working hours to meet the demanding schedule, highlighting their dedication to the project [3]. Group 3: Overcoming Challenges - The heat exchanger's heavy metal structure could undergo subtle deformations due to slight temperature changes, posing a risk to measurement accuracy [4]. - Experienced engineers optimized measurement strategies to minimize clamping stress and reduce exposure time, ensuring reliable data collection [4]. - Advanced software was utilized for rigorous data compensation and analysis, reinforcing the reliability of the measurements [4]. Group 4: Team Foundation for Success - The success of the measurement task was a collective effort, showcasing the spirit of teamwork throughout the process [5]. - The team leader coordinated resources and ensured seamless workflow, while senior members provided guidance to younger staff [5]. - A shared goal fostered a strong sense of collaboration, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the team [5]. Group 5: Commitment to Precision - After several days of intense work, the measurement team successfully captured all critical dimensions of the heat exchanger, delivering reliable data [6]. - The timely issuance of the inspection report marked not just the completion of a task but also a testament to the team's professionalism and collaborative spirit [7]. - The article concludes by emphasizing the team's role as the "eyes" of production, ensuring product quality and contributing significantly to the company's development [7].
123产线上的“胖师傅”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 03:48
(来源:中国航空报) 吴静如 在中国航空工业集团南京机电二十一部123产线,卢榕年龄最长,大伙儿都尊称他为"胖师傅"。五十二岁的"胖师 傅"十多年前就确诊心脏问题,但在工作任务落实上从没含糊过。在科研新品攻关中,他三十多年的装试经验发 挥着重要作用;多项任务交织突击,他的沉稳性格和统筹能力保障着工作的有序推进。 刚接手的科研新品,装配间隙要求控制在0.01毫米以内,大家看着工艺试装多次都无法达到要求,直呼没办法。 卢榕仔细观察,试着将产品从直立状态侧立过来,对好配套柱塞孔,轻松将多头柱塞装配到位,找好测量间隙的 跳动位置,测量千分表的跳动量立即显示出来。卢榕经常提醒年轻人,装配不是搭积木,层层叠加不一定能装好 产品,要根据产品特点及时变通,特别是研制新品性能指标更高,结构及配合就更精密,要勇于从多角度作不同 尝试和验证。在一次次的难题解决示范中,卢榕的装配技巧和工作心得都在悄然影响着周围同事。 一次暴雨而至,空气沉闷。卢榕带着徒弟刚结束产品测试,班组长就急奔而来。前期缺件的交付急件刚齐套,要 赶紧动起来了。卢榕长呼一口气,叮嘱好徒弟清理设备间、做好试验数据的整理、对产品磨试分解后的各个摩擦 副进行细致的检查后 ...
工会的时光里
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 03:48
暮色漫过中航西飞试飞站的铁丝网时,我总错觉那些掠过天际的银鹰是白羽大鹏,振翅间抖落一地星 辰。三十载光阴在航空城的土地上生根,长成一片钢铁森林,而我的故事,是缠绕在枝丫间的常春藤, 年轮里刻满掌纹。 铁皮炉火煮春秋 综合管理室的台历总被红笔戳出蜂窝。晨光未启,我已在钢制文件柜前站成座钟,齿轮咬合的声响是这 座城的晨钟。专业厂例会的茶水要烫,劳保用品的账册要平,职工体检的队伍要像雁阵般齐整。那年疫 情,我领着后勤队在车间搭起行军床,防护服裹着汗珠在铁皮墙上洇出盐霜,却坚持把热汤面送到每个 隔断间。钳工老张捧着碗说:"这滋味,比当年丈母娘下的阳春面还暖胃。" (来源:中国航空报) 王倩 蒲公英的诺言 53岁生日那天,青年们用情景剧给我一个惊喜。扎马尾的姑娘学我走访困难户的架势,倒把老职工的皱 纹都演活了。散场时瞥见新委员在笔记本上勾画劳动竞赛方案,笔尖沙沙声像战鹰的轰鸣一样动听。职 工书屋的"文体课堂"里,我教"00后"姑娘打反手球,她击出的弧线惊飞了窗外的麻雀,举着球拍嚷着要 寄给老家爹娘——这丫头哪里晓得,她挥拍的模样,正折射了我三十年前在工会墙报前抄写的影子。 工会文化长廊的玻璃橱窗泛着琥珀光,前辈们抬着零 ...
“小北”的大担当
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 03:48
Core Insights - The article highlights the dedication and innovative spirit of a key figure in the aviation industry, focusing on the development of advanced technologies for helicopter safety and efficiency [2][3][5]. Group 1: Innovation and Technology Development - The individual, referred to as "Xiao Bei," has developed a self-researched program aimed at enhancing helicopter safety through data analysis and algorithm optimization [2][3]. - The introduction of automation tools using Python and MATLAB has significantly improved work efficiency in traditional strength design processes, addressing long-standing challenges in the field [3][5]. - A complete helicopter status monitoring system has been established, utilizing big data and machine learning to predict component lifespan and health status, providing a scientific basis for maintenance decisions [4][5]. Group 2: Team Leadership and Collaboration - The individual plays multiple roles within the team, fostering a collaborative environment and being a go-to person for both technical and personal challenges among colleagues [5]. - The emphasis on helping others and sharing knowledge contributes to a supportive team culture, enhancing overall productivity and morale [5][6]. Group 3: Commitment to the Aviation Industry - The narrative underscores a strong sense of mission within the aviation sector, with a focus on contributing to national interests and advancing the industry through innovation [6].
牛市若出现小平台,如何应对?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-22 02:11
Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that during a bull market, market corrections often occur within a short timeframe, and a 2-4 week minor pullback may present a smooth buying opportunity. It is suggested to consider chasing the previously strong sectors or switching to low-position sectors for a rebound [1][2][12] - Historical analysis of eight similar "first wave rise - platform pullback - second wave rise" intervals shows that the top 20% of sectors in the previous rise tend to experience the largest pullbacks and subsequently lead in the next rise [9][12] - The report emphasizes that sectors with negative excess returns during pullbacks are likely to struggle to regain positive excess returns afterward, indicating a potential "escape signal" for market tops [3][18] Group 2 - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening excess margins. Strong sectors include consumer electronics, which have maintained excess returns for 10 consecutive weeks, and others like general equipment and semiconductors [19][21] - Sectors that have shown signs of weakening excess margins include AI application games, military aviation equipment, and "anti-involution" sectors such as wind power and glass fiber [20][22] - The report identifies that certain sectors, even when experiencing relative weakness during minor bull market pullbacks, can still offer good odds for gains post-adjustment. These sectors are often cyclical and resource-based, which tend to have slower pricing logic compared to growth stocks [4][23][24]
晨曦航空: 2025年半年度报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-21 16:28
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational challenges faced by Xi'an Chenxi Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025, emphasizing significant revenue growth but also notable losses due to various risks associated with military procurement and customer concentration [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period was 26.85 million yuan, an increase of 108.92% compared to 12.85 million yuan in the same period last year [21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -36.26 million yuan, a decrease of 42.84% from -25.38 million yuan year-on-year [21]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from its aviation inertial navigation products, which rose by 269.62% compared to the previous year [21]. Business Characteristics and Risks - The company's products are primarily used by the military, leading to a highly concentrated customer base. In 2025, the sales proportion to the top five customers was 93.44%, with the largest customer accounting for 29.62% of sales [3]. - The military procurement process is characterized by strict planning and approval, which can lead to fluctuations in order volumes and delivery times, impacting revenue stability [2][3]. - The pricing of products and components is subject to military approval, which can result in discrepancies between provisional and final prices, affecting revenue and costs [2]. Product and Service Overview - The company specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of aviation electromechanical products, including inertial navigation systems and engine electronic control systems [8][9]. - Key products include various types of inertial navigation systems, such as flexible strapdown inertial navigation systems and fiber optic strapdown inertial navigation systems, which are critical for modern aviation applications [9][10][11]. - The company also develops unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and related technologies, aiming to enhance military operational efficiency and reduce costs [13][14]. Industry Position and Trends - The aviation inertial navigation technology is a high-tech field that reflects a country's technological capabilities and is characterized by high precision and complexity [17][18]. - The domestic military market is experiencing stable growth in defense spending, which supports the continuity of military procurement, although specific orders may vary annually [14][19]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with various domestic A-share listed companies, enhancing its market position and technological capabilities [20].
晨曦航空:2025年半年度报告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-21 13:46
证券日报网讯 8月21日晚间,晨曦航空发布公告称,2025年上半年公司实现营业收入26,846,940.58 元,同比增长108.92%。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...