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十大券商一周策略:“春季躁动”行情积极因素累积,拥抱更具备确定性的“实物需求拉动”与“内需政策红利”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 23:57
Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]
转债市场周报:弱资质及临期个券出现扰动-20251221
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 13:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, A-shares were volatile and stabilized, with reduced market volume. Policies on stimulating domestic demand and the upcoming full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port boosted the large - consumption sector. The medical and commercial sectors performed well, while the previously rising TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The bond market first declined and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.48% for the week, the median price up 0.81%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate down 0.36% compared with the previous week [1][2][9] - In the coming week, the small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds, and absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [3][18] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (December 15 - December 19, 2025) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile and stabilized with reduced volume. Policies and the Hainan event boosted the consumption sector, and the medical and commercial sectors performed well due to the flu and AI. The TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The market showed daily fluctuations in indices and sector performances. Most of the Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top - gainers being commerce and retail (6.66%), non - bank finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%), while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), and comprehensive (-1.53%) underperformed [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market first declined and then rose. Despite weak economic data and equity market adjustments at the beginning of the week, bond market sentiment was poor. The central bank's 1000 - billion - yuan 14 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday stabilized capital expectations, and bond market sentiment recovered in the second half of the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week [1][9] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.48% for the week, the median price was up 0.81%, the calculated arithmetic average parity was up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate was down 0.36% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) increased by 4.71%, 0.84%, and 0.85% respectively, reaching the 100%, 98%, and 94% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with commerce and retail (+5.34%), light industry manufacturing (+4.73%), steel (+2.13%), and beauty and care (+1.95%) leading, while non - bank finance (-4.26%), communication (-0.50%), coal (-0.39%), and household appliances (-0.31%) lagged. The top - gainers among individual issues were Jiamei, Huati, Zai 22, Huicheng, and Huayi convertible bonds, and the top - losers were Nenghui, Borui, Furong, Jingda, and Weidao convertible bonds. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3073.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 614.64 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][9][12] Views and Strategies (December 22 - December 26, 2025) - Small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Some low - price convertible bonds and large - cap, high - rating, near - maturity convertible bonds such as Huaan, Guotou, and Nenghua adjusted significantly, reflecting market concerns about the credit of low - quality issues and the conversion ability of near - maturity issues [3][18] - Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. If there are significant adjustments, investors can buy at low prices [3][18] - Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders in sectors such as two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding with historically low valuations [3][18] Valuation Overview - As of December 19, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 43.38%, 39.68%, 28.72%, 20.96%, 12.59%, and 13.84% respectively, at the 90%/82%, 98%/100%, 95%/97%, 93%/94%, 80%/70%, and 98%/98% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of issues with a parity below 70 yuan was -3.99%, at the 2%/5% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.18%, at the 90%/96% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 3.03%, at the 86%/87% percentile values since 2010/2021 [19] Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings. As of December 19, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances in the coming week (December 22 - December 26, 2025), but Puxian Convertible Bond will be listed. Puxian Convertible Bond has an issue size of 243 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and is scheduled to be listed on December 22. The underlying stock is Puxian Software, with a market value of 4.663 billion yuan as of December 19. The company focuses on management software development in the energy industry. In 2024, its revenue was 836 million yuan (+11.6% year - on - year), and the net profit was 121 million yuan (+95.06% year - on - year). From Q1 - Q3 2025, the revenue was 300 million yuan (+2.17% year - on - year), and the net profit was 100,000 yuan (-90.07% year - on - year) [27] - Last week, the exchanges approved the registration of 2 companies (Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology), the listing committees passed the applications of 3 companies (Zhanggao Electric, Doctor Glasses, and Haitian Co., Ltd.), the exchanges accepted the applications of 2 companies (Ruihu Mould and Nanxin Technology), the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposal of 1 company (Zuoli Pharmaceutical), and the board of directors proposed the issuance of 1 company (Tianshan Electronics). As of now, there are 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.9 billion yuan, including 5 issues with a total scale of 5.9 billion yuan that have been approved for registration and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan that have passed the listing committee [28]
控股股东或变更,最牛股胜通能源收获六连板丨透视一周牛熊股
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-21 10:12
Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance in the past week (December 15-19), with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3890.45 points, up 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.89% to 13140.21 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.26% to 3122.24 points [2] - Over 54% of stocks gained during the week, with 107 stocks rising over 15% and 31 stocks declining over 15%. Retail, dairy, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while sectors like sci-tech new shares, film and television, and Hainan Free Trade Zone saw significant declines [2] Top Gainers - The top-performing stock, Victory Energy (001331.SZ), surged 61.06% in the week, followed by Huaren Health (301408.SZ) with a 55.91% increase. Other notable gainers included Baida Group (600865.SH) and Xice Testing (301306.SZ), both exceeding 50% growth [4] - Victory Energy specializes in liquefied natural gas (LNG) procurement, transportation, and sales, serving various sectors including industrial, urban gas, and transportation [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Victory Energy reported revenue of 4.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.39 million yuan, up 83.58% [6] Stock Market Activity - On December 19, Victory Energy's stock hit a new high, closing at 26.14 yuan per share, marking its sixth consecutive trading day of gains. The company announced that a special robotics firm, Qiteng Robotics, plans to acquire up to 44.99% of its shares for over 1.6 billion yuan, which will change the controlling shareholder to Qiteng's founder, Zhu Dong [7] - Victory Energy reassured investors that its recent stock price fluctuations were due to the acquisition announcement and that there were no undisclosed significant matters affecting the company [8] Top Losers - The worst-performing stock, Guandao Tui (920680.BJ), plummeted 41.47%, while Zhongyuan Home (603709.SH) and ST Lifang (300344.SZ) both saw declines exceeding 25%. The top ten losers all experienced drops over 22% [10] - Zhongyuan Home, which focuses on furniture products, faced a nearly 26% drop over the week, with consecutive trading days of price declines [14][16] - The company reported a slight revenue decrease of 0.05% year-on-year, with a net loss of 17.44 million yuan, a significant decline of 802.46% compared to the previous year [17]
汇聚各界智慧 畅通民意渠道!长沙拟聘用102名市人民建议征集特邀建议人
Chang Sha Wan Bao· 2025-12-21 09:12
长沙晚报掌上长沙12月21日讯(全媒体记者 陈焕明)记者21日从长沙市委社会工作部获悉,长沙市人民建议征集 特邀建议人拟聘用人选名单正对外进行公示,全市共有102名来自社会各界的人选入围。这份名单涵盖代表委员、 新就业群体、行业协会负责人等多个领域,凝聚起社会各界的智慧力量,搭建民意直通决策的桥梁,为长沙特大 城市治理注入新活力。 此次拟聘用的特邀建议人队伍结构多元、覆盖广泛。其中既有熟悉市情民情的代表委员、深耕专业领域的专家学 者,也有快递员、外卖员、货车司机、网约车司机、网络主播等新就业群体代表,还有行业协会负责人、志愿服 务组织成员、基层社会工作者和热心市民等。从区级新媒体联合会的从业者到扎根乡村的村委会工作人员,从高 校科研人员到一线驾驶员,不同职业和身份的人选共同组成了一支"懂民意、善思考、能建言"的队伍。值得一提 的是,名单中还包括一名学生代表,展现了长沙吸纳民意的广泛包容性。 据了解,此次选聘工作是长沙推进人民建议征集提质扩面提质的重要举措。今年以来,长沙立足特大城市治理实 际,将人民建议征集作为汇集民智、提升治理效能的重要抓手,依据《湖南省人民建议征集工作办法(试行)》 《长沙市人民建议征集工 ...
上海本凡科技小程序开发价格解析与市场趋势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-20 07:52
Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pricing for mini-program development by Shanghai Benfan Technology, highlighting the price range and key factors influencing these prices [2][4][5]. Pricing Overview - The price range for mini-program development services varies significantly based on complexity and requirements: - Basic mini-programs: 5,000 - 15,000 RMB - Customized mini-programs: 15,000 - 30,000 RMB - Advanced feature development (e.g., payment systems, social features): 30,000 RMB and above - Post-development maintenance and upgrades: Monthly fee of 2,000 - 5,000 RMB [4][5]. Factors Influencing Pricing - Key factors affecting the pricing of mini-program development include: - Complexity of functional requirements, with basic programs being less expensive compared to those with multiple business logics and third-party integrations [5][6]. - Design requirements, where customized UI/UX designs incur additional costs [5]. - The professional level and experience of the development team, with more reputable companies charging higher fees [5][6]. - Urgency of project delivery, where expedited timelines may lead to increased costs [5][6]. Importance of Professional Development Companies - Collaborating with professional mini-program development companies can provide tailored services that meet industry standards and user needs, enhancing the efficiency of digital transformation [6][7]. - These companies typically offer better service quality, price transparency, and post-development support, which can mitigate potential risks [6][7]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The demand for mini-programs is on the rise, as businesses recognize their importance in user acquisition and brand influence [6][7]. - Companies should conduct thorough requirement assessments to ensure alignment with market needs, thereby avoiding unnecessary modifications and rework [7][8]. - Regular evaluation of mini-program performance and user feedback is essential for optimizing user experience and enhancing customer retention [7][8].
麦迪科技:拟提前终止第四期员工持股计划,变更回购股份用途并注销股票
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 10:57
麦迪科技公告,公司拟提前终止第四期员工持股计划,将回购专用账户中的103.73万股用途由"用于实 施公司员工持股计划"变更为"用于注销并减少公司注册资本"。公司拟注销回购专用证券账户中已回购 的103.73万股股份,占公司总股本的0.3387%。注销完成后,公司总股本将由3.06亿股减少为3.05亿股, 注册资本将由3.06亿元减少为3.05亿元。 ...
航天软件:公司于2025年5月29日制定并发布了2025年度“提质增效重回报”行动方案
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-19 10:41
证券日报网讯12月19日,航天软件在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司于2025年5月29日制定并发 布了2025年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案,根据行动方案内容,公司积极开展和落实相关工作,并对 2025年"提质增效重回报"行动方案半年度评估报告进行了公告。后续公司将根据中国证监会《上市公司 监管指引第10号——市值管理》规定,积极推动公司经营发展,提高技术产品核心竞争力,拓展市场客 户渠道,确保公司平稳有序发展。公司将积极研究政策,规范开展信息披露工作,规范公司治理,并及 时掌握市场情况,研究并购重组、股权激励、现金分红、市值监测等工作,做好市值管理。 ...
运达科技:四川证监局对公司采取责令改正措施
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 09:44
Core Viewpoint - The company, Yunda Technology, has received a warning from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for various internal control and accounting issues that violate regulatory standards [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Control Issues - The company has inadequate internal control execution, with discrepancies between contract acceptance criteria and actual acceptance, as well as missing logistics documents for several projects from 2019 to 2023 [1]. Group 2: Accounting Irregularities - There are several accounting irregularities identified: - In 2020, a subsidiary, Sichuan Huiyou Electric Co., Ltd., recognized revenue prematurely and inappropriately under the total amount method, violating accounting standards [2]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company failed to recognize impairment for certain fixed assets despite clear signs of impairment [2]. - Insufficient basis for goodwill impairment testing was noted in 2022, where significant deviations from performance commitments occurred without timely third-party testing [2]. - The allocation of labor costs and R&D expenses was deemed unreasonable, not aligning with regulatory guidelines [2]. - Incorrect accounting treatment for the write-off of estimated liabilities was observed during the performance commitment period from 2018 to 2020 [2].
软件开发板块12月19日涨0.67%,经纬恒润领涨,主力资金净流出1.09亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-12-19 09:08
证券之星消息,12月19日软件开发板块较上一交易日上涨0.67%,经纬恒润领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3890.45,上涨0.36%。深证成指报收于13140.22,上涨0.66%。软件开发板块个股涨跌见下表: 从资金流向上来看,当日软件开发板块主力资金净流出1.09亿元,游资资金净流出2.02亿元,散户资金 净流入3.11亿元。软件开发板块个股资金流向见下表: 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成投资建议。 ...
区块链 Web3 项目开发费用
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 08:33
Core Insights - The development costs of Web3 projects are highly customized and influenced by project type, technical complexity, security requirements, and team experience [3] - Total costs typically start from 150,000 yuan, with large and complex DeFi or custom blockchain projects potentially exceeding 3 million yuan [3] Cost Factors - Smart contracts are the core and most expensive part of Web3 projects [3] - Security is a non-negotiable cost in the Web3 space [5] - The final project quote can vary significantly based on detailed documentation including on-chain logic, token model design, and clear front-end interaction processes [6] Complexity and Pricing - Simple contracts (e.g., standard ERC-20 token issuance, basic NFT contracts) cost between 30,000 and 80,000 yuan, while complex contracts (e.g., customized lending protocols, automated market maker DEX logic) can range from 200,000 to 500,000 yuan [7] - The scarcity and high salaries of engineers skilled in blockchain-specific languages like Solidity or Rust increase development costs [7] Development Components - Front-end (DApp) development costs range from 50,000 to 150,000 yuan for basic interfaces, potentially exceeding 350,000 yuan for complex user experiences [7] - Back-end services, necessary for high-performance applications, typically cost between 80,000 and 500,000 yuan [7] - Smart contract security audits are critical, with costs ranging from 80,000 to 300,000 yuan, and top-tier audit firms charging even more [7] Token Economics and Blockchain Selection - Designing a sustainable token economic model may require consulting fees between 50,000 and 200,000 yuan [7] - Developing on established EVM-compatible chains (e.g., Ethereum, Polygon) is generally more cost-effective compared to custom solutions on chains like Solana or Polkadot [7] Project Types and Timelines - Basic MVP projects cost between 150,000 and 400,000 yuan with a timeline of 8-16 weeks [7] - Medium complexity DeFi/NFT markets range from 400,000 to 1 million yuan [7] - High complexity DEX or custom blockchain projects can exceed 1 million yuan [7] Team Experience - Experienced Web3 teams with successful track records command significantly higher rates compared to general software outsourcing teams [7]