Core Viewpoint - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, influenced by reduced expectations for interest rate cuts and concerns over "fixed income+" fund redemptions [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, the 10-year government bond yield rose to approximately 1.84%, with the 30-year bond yield nearing 2.20% [2] - The bond market has shown weakness despite stock market declines, with yields on various government bonds increasing since November [2][3] - Recent market sentiment has been negatively impacted by Vanke's bond extension issues, affecting credit bonds and causing some spillover effects on interest rate bonds [4] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Insurance companies are facing redemption pressures on "fixed income+" funds, leading to forced sales of equity assets and highly liquid bonds [3] - The market's low expectations for interest rate cuts have limited downward movement in bond yields, contributing to a weak market sentiment [3][5] - Some banks have recently withdrawn 5-year fixed deposit products, indicating a potential shift in their liability structure, which may affect their bond holding behavior [6][7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation for interest rate cuts remains a key focus, with potential for adjustments in the near future depending on external factors such as the Federal Reserve's actions [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see a shift in monetary policy, with a likelihood of rate cuts in early next year [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has been maintaining liquidity in the market, with recent net injections indicating a dynamic approach to monetary policy [3][4]

广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 期货公司观点 美债收益率再次下跌，下跌原因在于，一是政策预期博弈，美债定价隐含 "经济走弱→美联储 12 月降 息" 预期，但 9 月零售销售控制组数据不及预期，假日消费计划收缩，经济前景存疑，投资者等待失业 金申请、核心 PCE 等数据验证，提前抛售美债避险。 二是财政赤字承压，当日美国财政部公布 2026 财年首月赤字达 2840 亿美元，日均新增债务超 90 亿， 财政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market expectations for the bond market in Q1 2026 may be reflected in advance in Q4 2025. The end of 2025 may be a good time to build positions, while the bond market may not continue to adjust after the beginning of 2026 [6][9]. - There is limited trading opportunity in the bond market within the year. Products with overly long durations of trading varieties can appropriately shorten the duration, and coupon - bearing varieties such as credit bonds can be held continuously [6][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Market expectations for the bond market in Q1 2026 may be reflected in advance in Q4 2025. End - of - year interest rates are difficult to decline, and the end of the year is a good time to build positions [6][9]. - From the perspective of past market expectations and institutional behavior, the current market expectation of rising interest rates in 2026 will be reflected in the end - of - year bond market. There is a possibility that inflation will rise slower than expected and the central bank will guide interest rates down in 2026. There is a limited reduction pressure in the bond market within the year [6][10][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Domestic PMI Release - China will release the manufacturing PMI for November, and the US will release data such as September PPI and September retail sales month - on - month rate. The ECB will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [14][15]. 2.2 Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 723.5 billion yuan, including 242 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 351.5 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 130 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds [15][16]. 3. Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Injection - This week, the reverse repurchase injection continued to increase, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan and a net injection of 554 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury deposits, the net injection of open - market operations was 434 billion yuan. The capital interest rate fluctuated and then declined, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [19][20]. 3.2 Differentiated Changes in Interest Rates of Various Tenors - Last week, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB active bonds changed by 0.8bp and - 0.1bp respectively to 1.81% and 1.87%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1bp, - 0.5bp, 0.9bp, - 0.8bp, and 0.3bp respectively [37][40]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, and the year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude - steel output in early November remained negative at - 11.7%. - On the demand side, the year - on - year decline in passenger - car wholesale and retail sales narrowed, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 4% and 2.6% respectively [47][48]. - In terms of prices, crude - oil, copper, aluminum, and coking - coal prices declined. The building - materials composite price index increased, while the cement and glass indices declined. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork decreased [48].

Group 1 - The new LPR in China remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November is at 51.9, a four-month low, while the services PMI is at 55, a four-month high, indicating mixed economic signals [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a potential cut in December [2] - New York Fed President Williams suggests there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, while other officials express caution about high asset valuations [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with probabilities rising from 44% to 71% following supportive comments from several Fed officials [13] Group 3 - In the futures market, various commodities experienced price declines, with ICE Brent crude oil down 2.92% and COMEX gold down 0.77% [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 86.82 basis points, influenced by deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and Fed meeting minutes that dampened rate cut expectations [4] - The A-share market saw declines across major indices, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.15%, attributed to falling risk appetite and Fed meeting outcomes [6] Group 4 - The bond market showed mixed movements, with credit bonds slightly rising while interest rate bonds experienced minor fluctuations [10] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, particularly the 5-year yield, which fell by 12 basis points, amid mixed economic signals and Fed officials' support for potential rate cuts [12]

11月27日，上交所发布关于咸宁高新投资集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行公司债券（第 四期）挂牌的公告。 依据《上海证券交易所非公开发行公司债券挂牌规则》等规定，上交所同意咸宁高新投资集团有限公司 2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行公司债券（第四期）于2025年11月28日起在上交所挂牌，并采取点击 成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"25咸高04"，证券代码 为"280777"。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Group 1: Major Indices - The bond index (China Bond Composite) shows a strong performance with a 90% increase rate, making it a stable choice for investors [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index stands out among stock indices with a 60% increase rate and an average increase of 1.34%, indicating potential opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [3] - Large-cap indices like CSI 300 outperform small-cap indices, suggesting a market preference for larger leading stocks in December [3][4] Group 2: Fund Types - Short-term and medium to long-term bond funds have a high increase rate of 90%, making them suitable for investors seeking certainty [5][7] - "Fixed income plus" products, such as secondary bond funds, show a 70% increase rate and an average return of 0.44%, balancing risk and return effectively [7] - Equity funds exhibit a divergence, with high-position ordinary stock and mixed equity funds having a 40% increase rate but higher average returns, appealing to risk-tolerant investors [7] Group 3: Industry Perspective - Consumer sectors, particularly social services, food and beverage, and home appliances, show a 70% increase rate, highlighting the "year-end consumption season" as a driving force [8][10] - Financial and energy sectors, including banks and oil and gas, demonstrate strong defensive characteristics with high increase rates, indicating stability during December [11] - Specific consumer segments like white goods and non-liquor beverages have an 80% increase rate, marking them as significant alpha sources [12][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Research Team: Macro Team of the Research Center - Date: November 27, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Data for major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc., are all marked as '-', indicating no available data presented [2] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Data for major economies including the US, UK, Germany, etc., are all '-', showing no available data [2] - **Exchange Rates**: Data for the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., are all '-', with no available data [2] - **Stock Indices**: Data for major economies' stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., are all '-', meaning no available data [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data for various credit bond indices including US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc., are all '-', indicating no available data [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3864.18 with a - 0.15% change; the CSI 300 closed at 4517.63 with a 0.61% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2971.80 with a 0.12% change; the ChiNext closed at 3044.69 with a 2.14% change; the CSI 500 closed at 6965.05 with a 0.15% change [3] - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 is 13.92 with a 0.00 change; the SSE 50 is 11.85 with a - 0.04 change; the CSI 500 is 31.74 with a 0.05 change [3] - **Fund Flows**: The latest A - share fund flow is - 610.83, the main - board is - 535.27, the ChiNext is - 96.51, and the CSI 300 is 67.16. The 5 - day average of A - shares is - 515.31, the main - board is - 447.60, the ChiNext is - 55.59, and the CSI 300 is - 65.88 [3] Other Trading Data - **Transaction Amount**: The latest total trading amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 17833.46 with a - 288.01 change; the CSI 300 is 4273.61 with a 158.37 change; the SSE 50 is 972.58 with a - 7.74 change; the small - and - medium - sized board is 3572.97 with a - 150.94 change; the ChiNext is 5235.99 with a 11.44 change [4] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: For IF, the basis is - 24.63 with a - 0.55% change; for IH, the basis is - 7.20 with a - 0.24% change; for IC, the basis is - 55.65 with a - 0.80% change [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data for T2303, TF2303, T2306, TF2306 are all marked as '-', indicating no available data [4] - **Funding Rates**: R001 is 1.3672% with a - 15.00 BP change; R007 is 1.5205% with a 0.00 BP change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5790% with a 0.00 BP change [4]

依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，上交所同意北京控股集团有限公司2025年面向专业 投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券（第三期）（品种二）于2025年11月28日起在上交所上市，并采取匹 配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"25北控K6"，证券 代码为"244290"。根据中国结算规则，可参与质押式回购。 来源：市场资讯 11月27日，上交所发布关于北京控股集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券 （第三期）（品种二）上市的公告。 ...

Core Points - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance scale of 2-year and 5-year government bonds in the revised debt issuance plan for the fiscal year 2025 to fund economic stimulus measures [1] - The total planned government bond issuance for the current fiscal year, ending in March, will increase by approximately 7 trillion yen (about 44.7 billion USD) from the original 171.8 trillion yen [1] - The issuance amounts for 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year government bonds will remain unchanged [1] - The government is expected to increase the issuance scale of discount treasury bills by about 6 trillion yen and may raise the monthly issuance of 2-year and 5-year bonds by 100 billion yen each starting in January [1] - The revised issuance plan will be submitted for discussion at the government bond market underwriting meeting and then presented for cabinet review [1]

Core Insights - The approval of 16 technology-themed funds, including AI and chip ETFs, signals regulatory support for "hard technology" companies to access long-term capital [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Support for Technology - Regulatory bodies are actively facilitating long-term capital support for "hard technology" enterprises, which is crucial for the development of new productive forces [2] - The capital market is enhancing its inclusivity and adaptability to provide a more flexible financing environment for enterprises related to new productive forces [3] - The economic value added from "three new" sectors (new industries, new business formats, new business models) is projected to reach 242.908 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 6.7% year-on-year, accounting for 18.01% of GDP [3] Group 2: Multi-Layered Market System - The multi-tiered market system effectively expands coverage for technology innovation, providing full-cycle capital support for different types of enterprises [4] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board focuses on "hard technology," while other boards serve various segments of innovative enterprises, ensuring comprehensive support for technology companies [4] Group 3: Financial Tools and Services - Innovative financial tools and services are being developed to offer diverse financing options, aiding enterprise growth [5] - The bond market is innovating to support strategic sectors, with the introduction of a "technology board" to guide funds towards early-stage, small, long-term investments in hard technology [5] - From May 7 to November 25, 2025, the technology innovation bond market issued 1,317 bonds, with a total issuance scale of 1.5 trillion yuan [5] Group 4: Patient Capital - The growth of patient capital is essential for providing stable funding sources for technology innovation [6] - Regulatory bodies are broadening channels for medium- and long-term capital to enter the market, creating an attractive environment for long-term investments [6] - Future efforts will focus on nurturing patient and long-term capital to support technological and industrial innovation [6]