Group 1 - The investment outlook for the second half of 2025 will be influenced by three main themes: the stock market led by large U.S. tech companies expanding to a broader market, a shift in the bond market favoring corporate credit over developed market sovereign bonds, and the increasing importance of active asset allocation strategies in a slowing growth and high inflation environment [1] - U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from trade partners are expected to create supply shocks and negatively impact global demand, while fiscal measures like deregulation and tax cuts may pose additional upside risks to economic growth and inflation [1] - The current investment environment is returning to one where returns are generated from a wider range of regions and sectors, necessitating a diversified investment strategy and flexible deployment from investors [1][2] Group 2 - China is advancing in artificial intelligence technology, with expectations for accelerated technological innovation in the coming years, despite challenges in computing power [2] - The transformation of the Chinese consumer market is creating opportunities in sectors such as collectible brands, fresh beverages, and leisure snacks, driven by evolving consumption patterns [2] - The focus on diversifying investments into higher-quality and more resilient emerging market regions is seen as beneficial in navigating risks associated with trade, inflation, and policy movements [2] Group 3 - Given high valuations, there is a cautious stance on stocks, particularly U.S. equities, while European and emerging market stocks are viewed more favorably due to competitive earnings prospects and potential benefits from stimulus measures [3] - A lower allocation to bonds is anticipated due to upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, although a higher allocation to higher-yielding bonds is favored as their fundamentals remain supportive [3] - In a volatile market environment, maintaining a higher allocation to cash is considered prudent as it offers attractive returns and liquidity [3]

日本比上月增持0.3%，为1万1345亿美元，持有量继续居首。外国投资者对美国国债的总持 有量为9万134亿美元，比上月减少0.4%。 受特朗普宣布对等关税的影响，4月上旬美国的利率一度出现剧烈波动。作为美国长期利率指 标的10年期国债收益率在3天内急升约0.6%，4月9日一度触及4.5%。 美国财长贝森特当时暗示，利率急剧波动的背景是对冲基金等的交易回撤。市场上出现了中 国为对抗美国的对等关税而抛售美国国债的猜测。贝森特否定了这种看法。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）三岛大地 纽约报道 REUTERS 美国财政部数据显示，截至4月底中国持有7572亿美元美国国债，比上月减少1.1%。市场上 曾有中国为对抗美国关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限…… 美国财政部6月18日公布的4月底各国持有美国国债的数据显示，中国比上月减少1.1%至 7572亿美元。日本保持首位，在3月超过中国的英国继续保持第2位。市场上曾有中国为对抗 美国特朗普总统的对等关税而大量抛售美国国债的猜测，但中国实际的减持幅度有限。 这是反映4月上旬美国国债价格急剧波动的首次统计。中国的持有量连续2个月减少。与一年 前相比 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Japanese bonds for the week of June 13 amounted to 434.5 billion yen, a significant increase from the previous value of 219.8 billion yen [1]

美国财政部周三公布的数据显示，在总统特朗普于4月宣布对外贸易伙伴加征惩罚性关税之后，海外投 资者对美国长期国债的信心出现动摇，当月净抛售金额高达408亿美元，创下自去年12月以来的最大月 度净卖出规模。 当前美国政府债券市场总规模已达28.6万亿美元。尽管4月的抛售金额在整体规模中占比不高，但其意 义重大。财政部报告显示，截至目前外国投资者共持有约9.013万亿美元美国国债，占全部国债市场的 31.5%，相比去年夏天的8.3万亿美元显著增加。 这份报告是美财政部首次披露特朗普新关税政策出台后外国投资者对美国国债需求变化的官方数据。下 一期关于2025年5月的数据报告预计将于7月17日公布。 市场分析人士指出，海外投资者对美债的持仓变化成为近期焦点，原因在于美国高债务水平叠加强硬的 贸易政策，可能令国际资本对美国财政可持续性产生担忧，从而减少对美债的配置。若这种趋势延续， 可能造成债券价格下跌、收益率上升，加剧美国财政融资压力。 4月美国国债市场经历历史性抛售潮。据道琼斯市场数据显示，当月30年期国债收益率录得自1987年以 来最大单周涨幅，10年期国债收益率的单周升幅则创下自2001年经济衰退结束以来的最高纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a slight decline for the first time in five months, dropping from a record high of $9.049 trillion in March to $9.013 trillion, indicating that despite the impact of President Trump's erratic tariff policies, there has not been a significant sell-off [1]. Group 1 - Foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased for the first time in five months [1]. - The decline in holdings was from a historical high of $9.049 trillion to $9.013 trillion [1]. - The sell-off observed was described as relatively mild, according to Zachary Griffiths from Credit Sights [1]. Group 2 - The decline in foreign holdings occurred after the announcement of tariffs on April 2, which led to fluctuations in the stock market and the U.S. dollar [1]. - Concerns about a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries appear to be unfounded based on the data [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.3909% during the late trading session on June 18, with intraday trading ranging between 4.4087% and 4.3377%, exhibiting a V-shaped trend [1] Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.04 basis points, settling at 3.9414%, and later slightly increased to 3.9561%, marking a new daily high [1] - Following the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement and economic projections (SEP) at 02:00 Beijing time, the 2-year yield plummeted to 3.8824%, reaching a new daily low, before narrowing its losses [1]

市场分析：美联储下一个可能降息的窗口将是9月 金十数据6月19日讯，分析师Matthias Scheiber表示，由于围绕关税的不确定性持续存在，美国劳动力市 场依然强劲，美联储对利率采取了普遍预期的"观望"态度。从我们的角度来看，美联储下一个可能降息 的窗口将是9月。我们预计，如果通胀率继续降至2.0%的目标，美联储今年可能会降息两次。"我们预 计股市表现将继续波动，并继续青睐美国股市、国际股票和新兴市场股票的低价部分，因为估值更好， 更多的财政和货币刺激可能会到来，以及一些美国大型股的估值更高。""鉴于整体收益率仍具吸引力， 我们对高质量债券的前景依然看好。" ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for the 4-month U.S. Treasury auction held on June 18 was 2.88, a decrease from the previous value of 2.96 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced a decline in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and potential market adjustments [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by 3.9 basis points, reaching a daily low of 2.496% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points, settling at 1.842%, with intraday trading between 1.876% and 1.842% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 4.2 basis points, hitting a daily low of 2.943% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields narrowed by 0.999 basis points, reported at +65.230 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The winning bid rate for U.S. Treasury auctions for the four weeks ending June 18 is 4.06%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 4.08% [1]