宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/3 5月PMI数据点评—— 供需修复，经济回稳 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、制造业PMI温和改善 2、非制造业延续平稳扩张态势 ➢ 中国5月官方制造业PMI49.5，预期49.5，前值49.0。 1、制造业PMI温和改善 ➢制造业PMI边际小幅修复。5月制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，符合市场预 期，表现好于季节性。经济有所回稳，如期实现温和修复，这一方面得益于国内积极政策的加紧实 施，另一方面也与5月中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议、关税冲击有所缓和有关。 ➢多数分项较前值有所反弹。从主要分项指数的边际变化来看，本月除产成品库存指数、购进价格指 数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数较前值下降外，其余分项（生产指数、新订单指数、新出 口订单指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营 活动预期指数）均出现不同程度的上行，上升幅度在0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Economic Overview - In April, the economic operation of Zhengzhou continued to show a stable and positive development trend, supported by the implementation of various reform tasks and policy measures [1][3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of above-scale enterprises in Zhengzhou increased by 8.1% year-on-year in April, with nearly 70% of the 37 major industrial categories maintaining production growth [1] - The new materials industry, automotive manufacturing, and electronic information industries saw significant growth, with added values increasing by 16.1%, 13.9%, and 12.3% respectively, contributing a total of 66.5% to the above-scale industrial growth [1] Investment Growth - From January to April, fixed asset investment in Zhengzhou grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Investment in major projects (excluding real estate development) increased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a 4 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [1] - Private investment showed significant support, growing by 12.5% year-on-year and contributing 7.2 percentage points to overall investment growth, maintaining double-digit growth for four consecutive months [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 50.7 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - Retail sales through public networks increased by 34.1% year-on-year, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for eight consecutive months [2] - The retail sales of certain categories, such as computers and home appliances, saw substantial increases, with growth rates of 2.3 times, 1.4 times, and 45.4% respectively [2] New Industries and Technologies - The added value of high-tech manufacturing in Zhengzhou increased by 11.3% year-on-year in April, indicating rapid growth in new industries [2] - The production of new products such as integrated circuits, lithium-ion batteries, sensors, and new energy vehicles saw year-on-year increases of 51.5%, 68.4%, 42.2%, and 19.3% respectively [2] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 30.3% year-on-year from January to April, reflecting a positive investment trend in new industries [2] Future Outlook - The overall economic indicators in April showed a stable and positive trend, but there is a need to enhance the momentum for sustained economic recovery amid a complex external environment [3] - Future strategies will focus on stabilizing production, expanding domestic demand, and fostering new productive forces to promote continuous economic improvement [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May indicates a slight recovery in China's manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, with the composite PMI output index at 50.4%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index rose to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activities, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs are at 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively [3] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.7%, returning to expansion, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 47.5%, and small enterprises at 49.3% [3] Trade and Export - New export orders index and import index improved to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The recent China-US Geneva trade talks have positively impacted manufacturing exports, leading to a slowdown in the decline of new export orders [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, although it decreased by 0.1 percentage points [5] - The construction industry index is at 51%, while the service industry index is at 50.2%, showing mixed performance [5][6] - The information service sector continues to thrive, with business activity indices in various service sectors remaining above 55.0%, indicating strong growth [6][7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the government should enhance economic stabilization policies and promote domestic demand while maintaining high-level openness to external markets [4] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, reflecting optimism among construction enterprises [6]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing activities returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in production activities [1] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5%, indicating stable confidence among manufacturers regarding market development [1] Group 2: High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2] - New orders indices for both high-tech and equipment manufacturing remained above 52%, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating stable growth in the service sector [3] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with a business activity expectation index of 56.5%, reflecting optimism among service providers [3] - The construction industry continued to expand, with the civil engineering business activity index at 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, indicating accelerated project construction [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The rise in manufacturing PMI in May suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are beginning to show results, although the price index remains slightly down, indicating an oversupply situation [4] - Experts emphasize the need for continued government investment in public goods to support production and employment recovery, while also advocating for measures to boost domestic demand and enhance external trade [4] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is still under observation due to external uncertainties and the fact that many sub-indices remain below 50%, indicating potential risks [4]