投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market downturn triggered by China's retaliatory measures against the U.S., leading to widespread declines in various financial markets and commodities. Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq futures dropping over 3% and the S&P 500 futures down by 3.02% [3][4] - The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5%, marking its lowest level since September 2022 [4] - European stock markets also faced severe declines, with Italy's FTSE MIB index dropping nearly 7% and other major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also experiencing significant losses [7][8] Commodity Market Impact - International oil prices saw a substantial drop, with WTI crude oil prices decreasing by as much as 9% [11][12] - Precious metals like copper and silver also faced declines, with prices dropping nearly 2% during trading [9] Chinese Government Actions - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, effective from April 10, as a countermeasure to U.S. tariffs [13][21] - The Ministry of Commerce listed 11 U.S. entities as unreliable and imposed export controls on 16 U.S. companies [14] - Investigations into anti-dumping practices on medical CT tubes from the U.S. and India were initiated [15] - Export control measures were implemented on seven categories of rare earth elements [16] - Six U.S. companies had their qualifications to export products to China suspended [18]

2025年两会，全国政协委员、民建中央法制委员会委员、证监会处罚委办公室一级巡视员罗卫关注的问题 均和强化资本市场监管执法，加大投资者保护力度有关。她建议探索在北京上海试点金融案件"三合一"审 判机制，加快出台背信损害上市公司利益罪司法解释。 罗卫在接受证券时报·券商中国记者专访时表示，"打假护秩序、护市场"始终是资本市场监管执法的重点，一 个活力与秩序兼备的资本市场是证监会行政执法的工作目标。证监会将一以贯之依法从严打击证券期货违法行 为，坚持做到"严而有度、严而有方、严而有效"，并将"以投资者为本的理念"始终贯穿在监管执法过程中。 证券时报·券商中国记者：2024年，证监会坚决落实党中央关于金融监管"长牙带刺"、有棱有角要求，依法严 惩资本市场违法行为，请问"以投资者为本的理念"在监管执法层面应该如何体现？ 罗卫：证监会在监管执法中始终坚持投资者的主体价值和中心地位，努力让投资者在每一个执法行为、每一项 处罚决定中感受到公平正义，以法治力量促进资本市场生态改善，持续提升投资者安全感。监管执法要更加强 调"以投资者为本的理念"，需要从四个方面着手： 一是坚持从严执法形成有力震慑。对欺诈发行、财务造假、操纵市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening capital market regulation and investor protection, highlighting the need for a robust legal framework to address financial misconduct and enhance market integrity [1][2][10]. Group 1: Regulatory Focus - The proposal to explore a "three-in-one" trial mechanism for financial cases in Beijing and Shanghai aims to streamline the handling of criminal, administrative, and civil cases related to financial misconduct [2][4]. - The current practice in Shenzhen's financial court serves as a model for this reform, which is expected to improve judicial efficiency and provide better services for investors [5]. - The article stresses the necessity of expediting the judicial interpretation of the crime of breaching trust that harms the interests of listed companies, as existing regulations are seen as too vague [5][6]. Group 2: Investor-Centric Regulation - The regulatory approach should prioritize the interests of investors, ensuring that enforcement actions reflect fairness and justice [7][8]. - The article outlines four key aspects of investor-focused regulation: strict enforcement to deter violations, enhancing public confidence through transparent actions, precise enforcement to avoid collateral damage, and collaborative enforcement to ensure comprehensive accountability [7][8][9]. Group 3: Market Integrity and Development - The relationship between regulatory enforcement and market vitality is discussed, asserting that a well-regulated market fosters both order and dynamism [11][12]. - The article argues that effective regulation is essential for restoring market integrity and investor confidence, which in turn supports long-term investment [12][13]. - Future regulatory efforts will focus on distinguishing the severity of violations, improving legal standards, and enhancing collaborative mechanisms among regulatory bodies to ensure comprehensive accountability [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has proposed to increase the position limits for futures and options contracts based on the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index by 50%, 108%, and 43% respectively, to align with market growth and enhance risk management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The proposed position limits will increase to 15,000, 25,000, and 30,000 contracts for the respective indices, up from 10,000, 12,000, and 21,000 contracts [2]. - The position limit system was established in 1999 to enhance market transparency and prevent large positions that could disrupt market stability [2][4]. - The SFC believes that the current position limits are too low and may hinder market hedging and trading activities [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant growth over the past decade, with the market capitalization of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by approximately 60% and 250% respectively [3]. - The average daily trading volume for the constituent stocks of these indices has also risen significantly, by about 160% and 300% [3]. Group 3: Financial Results - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported record high revenues and profits for the year 2024, with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 22.374 billion, a 9% increase from 2023 [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was HKD 13.050 billion, up 10% year-on-year [9][10]. - In Q4 2024, HKEX's revenue and other income were HKD 6.4 billion, reflecting a 31% year-on-year increase, while net profit for the same period rose by 46% [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The HKEX is expected to benefit from a recovering IPO market and increased southbound capital inflows, with analysts raising target prices for the exchange [11]. - The exchange plans to continue optimizing its listing mechanisms to enhance the attractiveness of its new stock market [11].

国庆节香港只休1天，所以今天就恢复了交易，结果涨炸了，恒生指数爆涨6.2%，恒生国企指数上涨7.08%，恒生科技指数上涨8.53%，气势如虹，全军出 击。 我今天登陆我的港股账户，发现竟然翻身了，红了！曾经最惨的时候水下250多万，全都涨回来了。之前看香港哪哪都不顺眼，现在觉得这座城市活力四 射，以后不说它是金融废墟了。东方之珠，你最闪亮。 持有a股空头头寸的现在估计看的头皮发麻，丸辣，拳丸辣 a50指数期货现在还在交易，我贴个图给你们看一下就知道具体啥形势。红色箭头就是9月30日15点a股收盘的位置，那根细细的红线就代表当时的点位， 正好是14000点，然后最新的点位是15066，又涨了7.6%。 我在心里默默算了下，假如我们没有停牌的话，现在已经超过3500点了。但局势发展到现在这个地步，我觉得大多数人已经不再满足于3500，开始期待更 高的位置，3700？3800？4000？ 我这几天一直在想这一轮行情的性质到底是什么，因为不同的性质决定了行情最终的高度。首先可以排除是周线级别的超跌反弹，如果是超跌反弹的话极 限高度不会超过2950，更不会吸引山呼海啸的增量资金往里冲。其次也可以排除政策救市的逻辑，虽然 ...