（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 每经AI快讯，2月13日，标准普尔500迷你股指期货上涨0.1%，纳斯达克期货上涨0.2%。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 每经AI快讯，1月29日，标准普尔500指数电子迷你期货回吐早盘涨幅，下跌0.3%，纳斯达克期货 下跌0.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is currently at the intersection of political uncertainty and macroeconomic policy conflicts, leading to a significant increase in risk premiums in traditional financial markets. Bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 1% to a peak of $92,000, despite a general decline in U.S. stock futures [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin, traditionally viewed as a risk asset highly correlated with the Nasdaq index, has recently decoupled from it, demonstrating strong resilience as Nasdaq futures fell by 0.8% and S&P 500 futures by 0.5% [3]. - Investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a "digital safe haven" to hedge against potential fiscal risks and uncertainties in monetary policy due to anticipated interference from administrative powers [3]. Group 2: Macro Financial Data - The U.S. dollar index has decreased from a high of 99.26 to 99.00, contrasting sharply with the strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which has surged to a historical high of $4,600 per ounce [4]. - The current market dynamics reflect deepening concerns about the stability of the existing financial order, as both stocks and currencies face pressure while gold prices rise [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Despite pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates to 1% or lower, the Federal Reserve is inclined to maintain current rates until May, having only reduced rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% recently, which remains far from the administration's aggressive expectations [2][4]. - The discord between the Federal Reserve's stance and political expectations raises concerns about the central bank's independence, which historically signals potential instability in national currency credibility [4]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor cross-asset capital flows and consider diversified asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with policy fluctuations as political and economic conflicts intensify [4].

Group 1 - Donald Trump has expressed intentions to arrest Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, based on statements made during an inquiry into renovations of the Federal Reserve building [1][2] - This unexpected move has caused shockwaves across global financial markets, particularly among commentators, indicating potential volatility in market reactions [7][8] - The situation raises questions about the seriousness of Trump's intentions, as prediction markets have not shown significant movement regarding Powell's potential removal from his position [9][11] Group 2 - The market response to this news includes expectations of rising gold prices and declining Nasdaq futures, reflecting the established patterns of market behavior in reaction to political developments [4][8] - Trump's ongoing unfavorable attitude towards Powell and the potential for a loyalist to take over the Fed chair position could impact global confidence in the management of the U.S. economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has led to increased investor interest in safe-haven assets, resulting in a rise in precious metals prices and a slight uptick in stock futures [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Reaction - Stocks are expected to edge higher, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remaining flat, S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.2%, and Nasdaq contracts rising by 0.6%, indicating a potential end to a five-day losing streak for the tech-heavy index [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Surge - Gold futures increased by 2.5% to $4,440 per ounce, while silver futures surged by 6.5% to $75.60 per ounce following the military operation in Venezuela [2]. - The rise in precious metals is attributed to investor concerns that the military action could disrupt the global order, potentially emboldening countries like China and Russia to assert their own sovereignty violations [2].

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is currently held just under $92,000, with traders considering various economic factors including labor data and central bank expectations [1] - The crypto market shows strong resilience, supported by renewed whale accumulation, with ETH whales adding over 450,000 ETH since mid-November [1] - A significant rate cut probability of 93% this month is contributing to buying pressure, with a potential move above $96,000 possibly accelerating Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 [1] Asian Markets - Japan's Nikkei 225 fell approximately 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia Pacific index outside Japan slipped about 0.1% but is on track for a modest weekly gain of around 0.5% [3][4] - Household spending in Japan decreased at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October due to inflationary pressures [4] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, indicating solid demand in recent auctions as investors capitalize on lower bond prices [4] Chinese Markets - Chinese markets displayed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.02% and the SZSE Component up about 0.17% [5] - The China A50 index decreased by 0.17%, while DJ Shanghai saw a slight increase of 0.12%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by approximately 0.40% [5] European and US Markets - European futures indicated a slightly firmer tone, with DAX futures up about 0.79%, FTSE 100 futures gaining 0.19%, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures adding roughly 0.41% [6] - US stock futures were mixed, with Dow futures down 0.07% and S&P 500 futures up 0.11% [6] - Recent US labor data showed initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in over three years, although the Thanksgiving holiday may have influenced the figures [7] Cryptocurrency Prices - Current prices include Bitcoin at $92,387 (down 1.2%), Ether at $3,174 (down 1.1%), and XRP at $2.09 (down 4.6%) [8] - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.22 trillion, reflecting a decrease of 1.3% [8]

Market Disruption - CME Group markets halted due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers [1] - The support team is working to resolve the issue in the near term [1] - The halt affected U S Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq futures trading, as well as foreign exchange products [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index mini futures declined by 0.59% [1] - The Nasdaq futures fell by 0.84% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Core Viewpoint - The US government has entered its first shutdown in nearly seven years, leading to significant declines in stock futures, particularly affecting market sentiment across major indices [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Dow futures dropped by 230 points, indicating a negative market response to the government shutdown [1] - S&P 500 futures fell by 50 points, reflecting widespread unease among investors [1] - Nasdaq futures experienced a sharper decline, plummeting over 180 points, highlighting increased volatility in tech stocks [1]