碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【宏观及行业新闻】 2025 年 5 月 19 日 碳酸锂：成本曲线持续下移，走势或仍偏弱 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 61,800 | -2,320 | -1,220 | -4,460 | -8,760 | -16,340 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 305,596 | 75,519 | 16,194 | 177,535 | 273,930 | 300,960 | | 2507合 ...

自2024年4月11日正式掘进进尺以来，上述隧道工程进展一直备受关注。据了解，该工程大中矿业采 用"龙源号"盾构机，面对裂隙带突水、层位突变等施工难题和复杂地质环境，精心准备、高效配合、突 破创新，实现高质高效精准掘进。 本报记者 马宇薇 2025年5月9日下午4时30分，大中矿业股份有限公司（以下简称"大中矿业"）全资子公司湖南大中赫锂 矿有限公司重点项目——临武县鸡脚山锂矿7.3公里运输隧道正式贯通，较原计划（8月31日）提前113 天。5月18日，大中矿业上述项目隧道贯通仪式隆重举行。此次贯通标志着大中矿业临武锂电新能源产 业链项目建设取得突破性进展，迈出坚实的一步。 大中矿业相关负责人对《证券日报》记者表示："上述项目首次将盾构机掘进隧道应用于矿山建设，填 补了国内锂矿开采领域盾构机应用的空白，大中矿业连续三个月月均掘进进尺超千米极大缩短了项目建 设时间，再现大中矿业高效建设速度典范。" 创出行业纪录 "此次隧道贯通，是大中矿业'转型不转行、创新在本行'战略的重要体现。公司铁矿业务经过二十余年 发展已成熟稳定，成为现金流的'压舱石'。为抵御单一业务风险，公司战略布局锂矿新能源领域，构 建'铁矿+锂矿' ...

Group 1 - The company held its sixth supervisory board meeting on May 15, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and the meeting was chaired by Mr. Huang Hua'an [1] - The board unanimously approved a proposal to provide guarantees for an overseas SPV company to issue bonds not exceeding USD 30 million or equivalent in other currencies, pending shareholder approval [1] - The company authorized its management to handle related procedures and sign legal documents within the guarantee limit [1] Group 2 - The board also approved a proposal for the company to increase the registered capital of Shenzhen Yichu by a total of RMB 30.8 million to enhance its financial strength and competitiveness [2] - This capital increase aims to optimize the capital structure and promote business development of Shenzhen Yichu [2]

供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

业绩 公司发布2024 年及2025 年一季度财报。公司24 年营收131 亿元，同比-68%，归母净利润-79 亿元，同 比-208%；其中24Q4 营收30 亿元，同环比-58％/-18％，归母净利润-22 亿元，同环比-175%/-345％。 25Q1实现营收25.84 亿元，同比-0.02%；归母净利润1.04 亿元，同比+102.68%；归母扣非净利润0.44 亿 元，同比+101.13%。盈利改善的主要原因包括：1）公司控股子公司Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd 锂矿定 价周期缩短，减少了锂精矿定价机制与锂化工产品销售定价机制的时间错配，降低了生产成本；2） SQM 税务争议裁决对其净利润的影响已在2024 年度确认，预计2025 年第一季度业绩将同比增长，公司 确认的投资收益较上年同期增长。 资源端产能持续扩张，锂化工品规划产能超12 万吨资源端，格林布什目前锂精矿产能合计约162 万吨/ 年。24 年泰利森共生产锂精矿141 万吨，其中化学级锂精矿135.3 万吨、技术级锂精矿5.7 万吨；泰利森 各项重点工程项目建设也稳步推进，其中化学级三号工厂建设项目已完成干法工厂的建 ...

阿根廷采矿商会Caem：阿根廷2025年锂产量预计同比增长 77%，达到1.318亿吨LCE。 ...

天齐锂业 20250507 摘要 • 公司一季度归母扣非净利润 4,442 万元，经营活动现金流净额 9.52 亿元， 现金流稳健，经营具韧性。受益于优化供应链管理和缩短锂矿定价周期， 降低了定价机制错配的影响，有效改善了公司业绩。 • 国内新购锂辉石入库及库存锂精矿消化后，国内生产基地化学级锂精矿成 本已接近最新采购价。自产工厂产能爬坡和技术改造也推动了 2025 年一 季度锂化合物及衍生品产销量同比增长。 • SQM 税务争议裁决的影响已在 2024 年度确认，彭博社预测 SQM 2025 年一季度业绩预计同比增长，公司确认的对 SQM 投资收益较上年同期有 所增长，对公司利润产生积极影响。 • 公司从泰利森采购锂矿价格约为 700 至 750 元，定价机制基于亚洲金属 网等四家机构上月数据加权平均，并给予股东折扣。库存均价已降至当前 采购成本水平，有效控制了成本。 • 尽管近期锂矿价格有所下降，但泰利森矿山成本优势明显，现金成本变化 不大。公司销售策略以长单为主，定价参考 SCM 价格并随市场调整折扣， 与下游客户保持良好关系。 Q&A 请介绍一下公司在 2025 年第一季度的业绩情况。 2025 年第 ...

碳酸锂周报 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/6 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。3月碳酸锂产量环比增加24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期 皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进 口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进 口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸 锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比小幅上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑， 氢氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 淡季需求偏弱，价格偏弱震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：5月整体排产预计环比持平。3月， ...