证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 赣锋锂业（002460） 2025 半年报点评：自有资源逐步放量，下半 年锂涨价贡献业绩弹性 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 22,184 | 27,494 | 31,513 | | 同比（%） | (21.16) | (42.66) | 17.34 | 23.93 | 14.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,946.81 | (2,074.01) | 434.10 | 1,554.53 | 2,352.05 | | 同比（%） | (75.87) | (141.93) | 120.93 | 258.10 | 51.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.45 | (1.03) | 0.22 | 0.77 | 1.17 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.01 | (38.18) | 182.43 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Impact - The company plans to achieve a lithium carbonate production of 11,000 tons and sales of 11,000 tons in 2025 [3] - In the first half of 2025, the expected production is 5,350 tons, with sales of 4,470 tons, and a projected net profit of approximately 49 million yuan, which is a small proportion of the overall net profit [3] - The impact of the temporary suspension of lithium production is minimal on the company's overall performance, as other subsidiaries are operating normally [3] Group 2: Potash Production - The company plans to achieve a potash production of 1 million tons and sales of 950,000 tons in 2025, with operations proceeding as planned [3] - The company confirmed that the suspension of lithium resource development will not affect potash production [3] Group 3: Mining License and Project Updates - The renewal of the mining license is progressing smoothly, with documentation submitted to the Ministry of Natural Resources for pre-examination [4] - The Marmicuo project has officially obtained a mining license, with construction of the first phase expected to take 9-12 months [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify [2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 673 dollars, with a daily increase of 7 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 830 dollars, with a daily increase of 10 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1405 dollars, with a daily increase of 20 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4565 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5400 dollars, with a daily increase of 60 dollars [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,095 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,285 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 570 yuan/ton, with a change of - 530 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 340 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 140,793 tons, with an increase of 2446 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 58,598 tons, with a decrease of 292 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 40,765 tons, with an increase of 268 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 41,430 tons, with an increase of 2470 tons. The daily registered warehouse receipt is 13,191 tons, with a decrease of 90 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 62,936 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 68,253 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 7005 yuan/ton [2] Industry News - Premier African Minerals, a London Alternative Investment Market (AIM) listed company, has completed the upgrade and transformation of the flotation plant of its Zulu lithium - tantalum mine project in Zimbabwe and restarted operations on July 6. The project covers an area of about 3.5 square kilometers and is 100% wholly - owned by Premier through its local subsidiary Zulu Lithium (Private) Limited [2] - Hunan has discovered 4.9 billion tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, has discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with a submitted lithium ore volume of 4.9 billion tons and a lithium oxide resource volume of 1.31 million tons. The deposit is also associated with multiple strategic minerals such as beryllium, tungsten, and tin [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.772 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -356 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.18%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -242 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.28% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross profit of 489 million yuan, which is a decrease of 115 million yuan quarter-on-quarter. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan per ton (including tax), down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of lithium concentrate was 834.4 USD per ton, up 5.8% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Resource Development - The company is entering a phase of accelerated resource release, with expectations for self-sufficiency to continue improving and production costs to decrease. The C-O salt lake is expected to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with cost reductions anticipated through operational optimization. The Mali Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to contribute significantly starting from Q2 2025 [10]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its own resources, with a focus on solid-state batteries and energy storage as new performance support points. As lithium prices stabilize, the long-term value of the company is expected to become more apparent [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. has been rated AAA by Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., indicating a stable credit outlook for the company and its upcoming green medium-term notes [1][2] - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium operates a vertically integrated business model covering lithium resource development, lithium salt deep processing, lithium metal smelting, lithium battery manufacturing, and comprehensive recycling of lithium batteries, which enhances its synergy and overall strength [2] - The company is a significant global producer of lithium compounds and lithium metal, with abundant resource reserves and large-scale lithium processing capacity, ensuring a complete product supply [2] Group 2 - The sales volume of the company's lithium chemical products has been steadily increasing, supported by stable cooperation with major customers [2] - The revenue and gross profit from the company's lithium battery business, which includes power batteries, consumer batteries, and energy storage batteries, have shown continuous growth in recent years [2] - The company's equity has grown rapidly, significantly enhancing its capital strength [2] Group 3 - The company faces geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuation risks due to its primary lithium resources being located overseas, particularly concerning the potential cancellation of lithium mining concessions in Mexico [2] - The company reported losses for the period from January to September 2024, and the lithium supply-demand situation is expected to remain loose in the short term, putting pressure on profitability [2] - Significant capital expenditure is anticipated for future projects like the Mariana lithium salt lake construction, which may lead to short-term liquidity fluctuations [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with continued expansion on the resource side [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the improvement in profitability include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company plans to expand its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons [2] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 15, and 9 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of -18.9% in 2024, improving to 9.9% by 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -4.82 yuan in 2024, increasing to 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]