本周观点聚焦 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来 看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关 税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 证券研究报告： 《 信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 》 对外发布时间： 2025 年 4 月 12 日 报告发布机构： 兴业证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格） 本报告分析师 ： 蒋佳霖 SAC执业证书编号： S0190515050002 孙 乾 SAC执业证书编号：S0190518110001 陈 鑫 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522030001 杨本鸿 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522080001 张旭光 SAC执业证书编号：S0190523090002 杨海盟 SAC执业证 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Computer Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the computer sector, highlighting recent market adjustments and their impacts on various companies within the industry [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Adjustment Impact**: The computer index dropped by 12.55% on Monday, with a near 1% recovery on Tuesday. Many computer stocks experienced a 20% adjustment, with around 180-190 companies seeing declines over 15% [2][3]. - **Overseas Revenue**: In 2023, overseas revenue for the computer sector was only 12%, with the U.S. market contributing 2%. This limited exposure means that overall performance is less affected by international market fluctuations [4]. - **Stable IT Spending**: Downstream IT spending remains stable, and the risk from tariff increases is limited due to the low overseas revenue share [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with solid fundamentals and good Q1 performance are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, such as: - **New大陆**: Expected Q1 profit growth over 20% and has initiated stock buybacks [5]. - **通行宝**: Anticipated annual growth of 70%-100% [5]. - **新国都**: Currently undervalued with a projected profit of approximately 7 billion yuan and a market cap of 90 billion yuan [7]. - **科远智慧**: Expected to achieve 3.2-3.5 billion yuan in revenue this year, with a market cap of 48 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 14, indicating it is undervalued [8]. - **鸿泉物联**: Potential for significant profit growth if domestic policies are fully implemented by 2027 [9]. - **云赛智联**: Projected growth of over 20% this year, with involvement in Shanghai's smart computing initiatives [10]. - **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment has a diminishing marginal effect on the computer sector. As confidence returns, the sector is expected to rebound more robustly [6]. - **AI Sector Performance**: Companies in the AI application field, such as 赛意信息, 合合信息, and 虹软科技, have strong fundamentals despite market volatility. Their revenue is not heavily reliant on the U.S. market, mitigating risks from international fluctuations [11]. - **信创 Industry Development**: The 信创 industry is accelerating due to international environmental changes, with companies like 华大九天 and 海天瑞声 poised to benefit. Mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector are expected to strengthen foundational capabilities [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the computer sector suggests that while recent adjustments have been significant, the underlying fundamentals of many companies remain strong, presenting potential investment opportunities in a recovering market [2][6][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **信创 (Xinchuang) industry**, which is focused on domestic technology development and innovation in response to international trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on the Computer Industry**: The computer industry is characterized by high elasticity, with a recent drop of approximately 13%. Tariffs have a limited impact, as overseas revenue constitutes about 10% of the sector, with only 5% affected by U.S. tariffs [2][6]. - **Growth in Xinchuang Industry**: The Xinchuang industry is experiencing a peak in construction due to fiscal stimulus and a clear quantitative target set for 2027. The demand is high, as indicated by procurement data from Guangdong Province [2][4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: There is robust demand and supply in the Xinchuang sector, with rapid technological advancements among companies. Fiscal support is enhancing industry sentiment [7][10]. - **U.S. Trade Policies**: The U.S. has expanded its entity list, impacting Chinese semiconductor development and prompting companies to adjust supply chains. This has accelerated domestic innovation and technology upgrades [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should focus on the entire Xinchuang sector, analyzing company performance and market sentiment while considering lessons from previous trade disputes [7][26]. Notable Companies in Xinchuang - Key companies to watch include **EDA**, **华大九天 (Huada Jiutian)**, **达梦 (Dameng)**, **中软 (Zhongruan)**, and **软通 (Ruantong)**. EDA is particularly significant due to its critical role in the industry [5][26]. Market Dynamics - **Procurement Trends**: Guangdong Province's commercial PC procurement from January to March 2025 has already surpassed the total for the previous year, indicating strong market growth [14][15]. - **Operating Systems**: The primary operating systems in the Xinchuang sector include **麒麟 (Kylin)** and **统信 (Tongxin)**, which dominate in government and financial sectors [18]. - **Database and CPU Developments**: **达梦 (Dameng)** is a key player in the database market, while **龙芯 (Loongson)** is notable in the CPU space, with products achieving competitive performance levels [19][20]. Future Projections - **PC and Server Sales**: Projections indicate that online PC sales in the government sector will reach 950,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [24]. - **Government Support**: The government is providing substantial financial backing for the Xinchuang sector, with plans for long-term bonds and significant funding allocations [23]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Opportunities**: The instability in global supply chains presents opportunities for Chinese hardware and software companies to expand internationally, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The Xinchuang industry is seeing shifts in market share across various segments, with domestic products gaining ground against established foreign competitors [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the Xinchuang industry amidst ongoing global trade challenges.

文 ｜ 杨泽原 丁奇 潘儒琛 马庆刘 孙竟耀 朱珏琦 曲松 预计2 0 2 5Q1计算机行业整体收入稳健增长，但各板块业绩有所分化，算力、信创、AI应用等方向 或表现优异。展望2 0 2 5年，建议把握"AI主线"机遇，重点看好AI Ag e n t及算力主线方向，如管理 办公软件、医疗IT、算力芯片、服务器、云厂商等板块；同时建议兼顾信创、低空经济、机器人 等结构性机遇，如工业软件、基础软件、军工IT、政务IT等板块。 ▍ 2 0 2 5Q1业绩前瞻：预计整体收入稳健增长，算力、信创、AI方向景气持续。 2）云应用： 预计整体稳健增长，有国产化需求的相关公司保持较快收入增速。信创招标逐步启 动、AI应用逐步落地背景下，我们预计2 5Q1通用软件将延续2 0 2 4的收入增长韧性，国产化影响 较大的方向或增长更快，如数据库、工业软件等。 宏观经济发展不及预期；人工智能技术发展和进程不及预期；国内政府与企业IT支出不达预期； 国际贸易摩擦加剧；相关产业政策不达预期；海外市场拓展不及预期。 3）产业互联网： 预计受各板块下游影响业绩呈现一定分化，预计2 5Q1金融IT、建筑IT、工业 IT等顺周期板块仍有一定增长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that despite a recent market pullback with a decline of 1.4% in the computer sector, there is strong confidence in the ongoing development of domestic AI, suggesting that opportunities still exist [4] - The financial results from Century Internet validate the robust growth of the AI industry, with new orders of 252.5MW in Q4 2024 and a projected total capacity delivery of 400-450MW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 161%-194% [4] - The report emphasizes the need to closely track developments in the AI industry, particularly in large model changes and application advancements, as numerous industry changes are expected domestically and internationally [4] - There is a focus on edge AI, which is anticipated to develop significantly with the emergence of multimodal large models, leading to new hardware terminals [4] - The report highlights the upcoming Nvidia GTC conference and the increasing importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) applications in AI data centers, suggesting a positive outlook for related power supply companies [4] - Investment strategies should focus on industry trends and select companies with high potential, while also considering the volatility of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector experienced a market pullback with a decline of 1.4%, ranking last among the Shenwan industry sectors [4] AI Industry Developments - The report notes a consensus in the market regarding the development of domestic AI, with significant capital expenditures expected from companies like Century Internet [4] - The report suggests that the market has shifted from "transaction expectations" to "transaction realities" regarding AI implementation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear application directions in edge AI and 2B applications, as well as those involved in domestic computing power [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 "AI+数据要素"有望挖掘数据变现新潜力 计算机周观察 20250316 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 我们认为 AI 跟数据要素结合有望诞生数据变现新方式，当前国家统筹数据侧、 算力侧基础设施发展，国产 AI 全产业链面临历史性成长机遇，继续重点关注 AI Infra、国产算力、AI 应用、数据要素重点环节等布局机会。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；AI 发展不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 283 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3910.6 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3408.9 | 4.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.9 90.7 45.0 相对表现 2.2 63.9 32.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《国产大模型及 Agent 发力，AI ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 2、深度跟 踪 ： eCall潜 在市场有多大？ —eCall 产业跟踪系列二 周观点 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 持续挖掘阿尔法投资机会。 正如我们上周观点所述，计算机板块将从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。在当前的时间点，建议从以下三方面挖掘阿尔法： 1 ）业绩超预期， 3 月下 旬至 4 月是财报披露的密集窗口期，年报中的前瞻性指标及一季报的业绩趋势将成为市场关心的重点； 2 ）产业边际变化，包括算力供需端的变化，以及 AI Agent 在 行业端的落地进展； 3 ）政策边际变化，包括货币、财政政策，以及信创招投标景气度变化。 关注 AI 算力产业最新变化。 在国外，英伟达 GTC 大会将于 3 月 17-21 日在美国加州圣何塞举办，预计将正式揭晓新一代 AI 芯片平台" Rubin "的技术细节，建议关 注英伟达产业链核心公司；在国内，腾讯将于 3 月 19 日发布 2024 年报，大厂资本开支趋势对国内算力产业景气度具有重要指引意义。同时，算力租赁正成为市场关 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (首次) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the computer sector has shown a significant increase of 6.7% this week, ranking third among the Shenwan industries, driven by the announcement of several computing power leasing orders and the emergence of Manus [3][4] - Manus is compared to last year's Kimi moment, marking a pivotal point in recognizing the capabilities of "task-oriented AI" in the 2.0 era, which is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of the trend towards virtualization and cloud deployment, suggesting that companies like 深信服 could benefit from the increasing demand for virtualization products as businesses adopt AI agents [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector has experienced a notable increase of 6.7% this week, indicating strong market interest and institutional focus on software segments [3] Manus and AI Trends - Manus represents a significant shift in the understanding of AI applications, showcasing the capabilities of task-oriented AI, which can execute long tasks and operate asynchronously in cloud environments [4] - The report suggests that the emergence of Manus could lead to a broader recognition of the potential of AI applications in various industries [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in AI and virtualization, including those involved in computing power and AI applications [6] - Specific companies to watch include 浪潮信息, 华勤技术, and 移远通信, which are positioned to capitalize on the growth in AI and cloud services [6]

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 1、本周 观 点： 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 2、深度跟 踪： RISC-V 开源生态：正在快速崛起的国产化分支 周观点 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。 鉴于本轮计算机行业的业绩趋势与产业变化的特征，目前暂判断其动能与 2018-2020 年上行趋势具有可比性，但预计本轮会更强一些。综合 来看，全年板块收益的贝塔属性仍在，但将收敛，挖掘阿尔法是未来的胜负手。当前的位置，建议重点关注产业变化更显著、成长空间更大的细分方向，比如 AI 应用、 云计算、信创、 eCall 等方向；对于看重中短期业绩兑现的方向，需聚焦到具备业绩持续超预期能力的公司。 高度重视 AGI 预期发酵。 Manus 的发布，正打开 AGI 预期发酵的大门。 AGI 是人工智能的终极目标，伴随着 Manus 的发布，市场对 AGI 的预期正在升温，同时也 有望加快科技大厂在 AGI 领域的进化速度，以及各应用场景的 AI Agent 落地速度。需要高度重视的是：从投资的长期视角来看， AGI 的预期发酵往往是 AI 投资的最 后冲刺阶段；但从中期视角来看，如果 AGI 的预期发酵能得到产业变化的持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the computer industry is shifting from strong beta to strong alpha, with expectations that the momentum will be stronger than the upward trend observed from 2018 to 2020. The focus should be on sectors with significant industrial changes and growth potential, such as AI applications, cloud computing, and eCall, while also identifying companies with sustained performance exceeding expectations [1][2]. Group 1 - The release of Manus has heightened expectations for AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which is seen as the ultimate goal of AI. This development is expected to accelerate the evolution of major tech companies in the AGI field and the implementation of AI agents across various applications [2]. - From a long-term investment perspective, the fermentation of AGI expectations often represents the final sprint phase for AI investments. If sustained industrial changes support this trend, the market will likely exhibit strong continuity [2]. - The launch of Alibaba's open-source QwQ-32B model, which has performance comparable to the full version of DS-R1 but with significantly lower computational requirements, indicates that leading domestic models will continue to emerge. The valuation premium for companies with scene positioning capabilities will be significantly higher than that for companies tied to a specific large model [2]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the rapid rise of the RISC-V open-source ecosystem as a significant branch of domestic innovation, highlighting its importance in the current technological landscape [3].