科技专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 计算机板块经历了四个阶段，从 2013-2015 年的互联网+到 2018 年 底的低谷，再到信创产业的兴起，目前正处于第四段牛市行情，受政策 推动和市场预期带动，板块波动性大，涨跌幅度显著。 信创产业受益于国产替代政策，但发展与政府及国央企投资密切相关， 具有周期性。2022 年国务院 79 号文推动办公软件替换，计划 2027 年 前完成，为相关企业带来机会，同时也带来周期性波动。 软件行业高估值源于边际扩张成本低，但中国市场定制化需求导致毛利 率低于海外。纯产品化公司毛利率 70%-80%，解决方案类 40%- 60%，外包类 10%-20%，集成类低于 10%。 AI 应用和算力端发展趋势良好，日 TOKEN 调用量从 2024 年 1 月至今 增长 300 多倍。国产算力占比提升，预计将从 85%的英伟达下降到 40%-50%，国产算力具有高景气成长潜力。 全球 Token 消耗量仍在高速增长，各大厂商对 Token 消耗量的预期增 长仍然是 10 倍左右。AI 对传统应用软件的赋能推动了 Token 消耗量的 大幅增加，如炒股软件和谷歌生态体系。 Q&A ...

9月29日，美国商务部抛出一项"穿透性"出口管制新规。母公司被列入黑名单，持股超50%的子公司自动跟着遭殃，连少数股权的关联企业都要额外审 查。这不是普通的贸易限制，而是把"连坐"这套古代酷刑玩法搬到了21世纪的科技战场上。数千家中国企业的子公司被卷入，特朗普二次上台后的对华打 压已经到了不择手段的地步。 以前美国制裁中国企业，好歹还讲点规矩。母公司上了黑名单，子公司只要符合条件还能正常做生意。现在这套新规直接打破了行业惯例——只要母公司 在实体清单或军事最终用户清单上，控股子公司自动被拉黑，不需要单独审查，不给任何辩解机会。 美国工业与安全局（BIS）把这说得冠冕堂皇，声称是为了解决"打地鼠"问题，防止被制裁企业换个马甲继续合作。但实际情况是什么？研究机构 WireScreen初步测算，这套规定将影响数千家中国企业。仅仅因为股权关系，这些子公司可能跟母公司的违规行为毫无关联，也要被一竿子打死。 更荒谬的是，连少数持股的关联企业都不放过。美方企业想跟中国公司合作，得先完成更严苛的尽职调查。彭博社援引行业人士的话说，现在做生意都不 知道客户到底有没有被额外限制，生怕一不小心踩了红线。这哪里是正常的贸易管制？分明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 World New Energy Vehicle Conference focused on "Industry Transformation and Sustainable Development," aiming to guide the global automotive industry in rationally responding to changes and exploring paths for high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Five Key Forces for Sustainable Development - Collaborative Innovation: The automotive technology system is evolving towards the integration of mechanics, electronics, computing, and data, necessitating cross-disciplinary collaboration in areas like solid-state batteries and intelligent driving systems [1]. - Supply Chain Collaboration: There is an urgent need to build a data-driven, interconnected supply chain system to enhance the resilience of the industry against risks [1][2]. - Talent Development: The rapid growth of smart connected new energy vehicles demands a higher caliber of composite talent, requiring a dual-track training system that aligns technical research and skills operation [2]. Group 2: Standards and Global Cooperation - Standard Co-creation: Establishing standards is essential to avoid low-level competition and promote sustainable development within the industry, particularly in cutting-edge fields like solid-state batteries and automotive AI [2]. - Open Cooperation: Sustainable development is a global issue that requires open and inclusive principles, fostering international dialogue to overcome trade barriers and build a fair and transparent global automotive ecosystem [2].

四是标准共建，引领高质量发展。标准是避免低水平竞争、推动产业可持续发展的"通行证"。需加快全 固态电池、车用人工智能等前沿领域标准研制，推进智能驾驶功能分级、数据安全等标准支撑，推动全 球标准互认。 五是开放合作，共迎全球挑战。可持续发展是全球性课题，必须坚持开放包容、平等互惠的原则，通过 国际对话协调破解贸易壁垒，共建公平、透明、非歧视的全球汽车产业新生态。 围绕如何推动产业实现长期可持续发展，侯福深提出应汇聚"五大合力"： 一是协同创新，破解"内卷"迷局。随着汽车技术体系从机电一体化向"机械、电子、算力、数据"融合演 进，跨学科、跨领域的协同创新成为关键。需在全固态电池、智能驾驶、智能底盘等前沿方向，以及汽 车芯片、操作系统、人工智能等基础领域加强联合攻关，为产业注入持续创新动力。 二是供应链融通，提升产业韧性。面对产业链主体拓展与价值体系重构，亟须构建数据驱动、互联互通 的新型供应链体系，实现"研产供销服"全链条数字化贯通，提升产业链的抗风险能力。 三是人才培育，夯实转型根基。智能网联新能源汽车的快速发展对复合型人才提出更高要求。应推动学 科体系重构，深化产教融合，完善汽车人才评价机制，构建"技术研发+ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage, with expectations of growth driven by AI and computing power initiatives [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in integrated information and communication technology solutions, with a stable market share in the telecommunications equipment sector [7][11]. - The company is transitioning towards a "connectivity + computing power" model, capitalizing on the demand for AI infrastructure and services [11][60]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 71.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.51%, driven by significant growth in its government and enterprise business [7][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's closing price is 45.80 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 219.09 billion yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 show a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 14.16%, 13.11%, and 11.35% in subsequent years [6][63]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 8.38 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 26.14 [6][63]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main segments: operator networks, government and enterprise, and consumer business, with a focus on enhancing its AI capabilities across these areas [18][60]. - The operator network business remains a cash cow with a gross margin of 52.94%, while the government and enterprise segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue increase of 80% in 2025 [28][60]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing heavily in R&D, with a cumulative expenditure of 117.07 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, focusing on servers, switches, terminals, and chips [28][60]. - The introduction of self-developed chips, including the "Zhu Feng" series CPU and "Ding Hai" DPU, is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in AI and computing power [54][57]. Competitive Position - The company ranks fourth globally in the telecommunications equipment market, with a market share of 11% in 2023, indicating a solid competitive position [7][11]. - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against peers, with a 2025 PE average of 39.58 for comparable companies [8][64].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant changes over the past year, with total market capitalization increasing from 68 trillion to 104 trillion, surpassing the 100 trillion mark [1] - The bull market was initiated by the "924" policy, leading to a rapid rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by nearly 1000 points within a few trading days [1] - The second wave of the bull market began in late June, driven by sectors such as chips, semiconductors, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals, further solidifying the bull market trend [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector has become the new market leader, with the total market capitalization of the electronics industry surpassing that of the banking sector [2] - Over a thousand stocks have doubled in value, primarily in industries like machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, indicating a strong performance in the tech sector [2] - The shift of household savings from real estate to the stock market, along with increased foreign investment, has fueled the liquidity-driven bull market [2] Group 3 - Technology innovation is now a core national strategy, with the market capitalization of technology companies exceeding 25% of the A-share market [3] - The number of technology firms among the top 50 companies has increased from 18 to 24, highlighting the growing importance of tech companies in the market [3] - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards technology sectors, particularly in areas benefiting from domestic substitution policies [3] Group 4 - The channels for long-term capital entering the market are expanding, with various types of long-term funds holding approximately 21.4 trillion in A-shares, a 32% increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4] - Regulatory efforts are being made to accelerate the entry of long-term capital, which is expected to favor stable cash flow and high dividend yield companies [4] Group 5 - Financial support for the real economy has intensified, with banks and insurance companies providing 170 trillion in new funds over five years, particularly for high-end manufacturing [5] - Companies with core technologies aligned with new productive forces are likely to receive more resource support, benefiting sectors like high-end equipment and new energy vehicles [5] Group 6 - The capital market is expected to continue its bull market trajectory, with a significant increase in the proportion of technology companies among newly listed firms [6] - The market has seen a notable increase in companies returning value to investors, with total distributions reaching 10.6 trillion over the past five years, an increase of over 80% compared to the previous period [6] Group 7 - Regulatory bodies are actively improving mechanisms for capital formation and long-term capital entry, enhancing market resilience and risk management [7] - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased from 19% to 15.9%, indicating improved market stability [7]

Group 1: Acquisition Details - The Portland Trail Blazers are set to be acquired by Tom Dundon for over $4 billion, with a final valuation of $4.25 billion [1][2] - This acquisition marks the third NBA team to change ownership in five months, following the Boston Celtics at $6.1 billion and the Los Angeles Lakers at a record $10 billion [1] - The acquisition team includes Tom Dundon, Mark Zahr, and Shel Taylor, with the addition of the Cheng family trust as an investor [1] Group 2: Background of Previous Owner - Paul Allen, co-founder of Microsoft, purchased the Trail Blazers in 1988 for $80 million, significantly increasing the team's value to $4 billion at the time of his passing in 2018 [4][5] - Under Allen's ownership, the team's value increased over 50 times, reflecting his investment acumen [5] - After Allen's death, his sister Judy Allen managed the team, but the franchise struggled, leading to the decision to sell [6] Group 3: Chinese Market Connection - The acquisition has garnered attention in China due to the signing of Chinese player Yang Hansheng, marking the return of a Chinese player to the NBA after nine years [3][10] - Yang's signing has resulted in a significant increase in the team's social media following and merchandise sales, indicating strong market potential in China [10] - The Cheng family, founders of Panda Express, are the wealthiest investors in the acquisition, with a net worth of $7.5 billion, highlighting the growing influence of Chinese capital in the NBA [2][8] Group 4: Broader Implications - The acquisition signifies a shift in NBA ownership dynamics, with increasing participation from Asian investors, following the purchase of the Brooklyn Nets by Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai [11] - The involvement of the Cheng family represents a landmark moment for Chinese entrepreneurs in the North American sports industry [8][11] - The combination of a Chinese player and a Chinese investor in the Trail Blazers opens new avenues for collaboration and brand promotion in the Chinese market [10]

Core Insights - The three emerging industries of smart vehicles, embodied robots, and low-altitude economy (including flying cars) are deeply interconnected in technology, supply chains, and applications, with over 60% overlap in their supply chains [1] - The integration of artificial intelligence technology is fundamental to these industries, which share a common technological architecture of "perception-decision-execution" [1] - By 2030, the global market for the "three major components" of aggregated intelligence is expected to reach nearly $240 billion, with China's market exceeding $120 billion [2] Industry Overview - The automotive supply chain can be closely linked with the supply chains of embodied robots and low-altitude flying vehicles, with shared components such as perception devices [1] - The mass production benefits from the automotive industry, particularly in batteries, thermal management, and chips, can accelerate the maturity of the robotics and low-altitude flying vehicle sectors [1] - Companies like Tesla are leading in the humanoid robot field, sourcing over 70% of their suppliers from the existing automotive supply chain, while domestic companies are also diversifying into multiple categories [2] Market Trends - The competition in the future will focus on the collaborative efficiency of aggregated ecosystems rather than individual products, positioning the "three major components" as key drivers for high-quality economic development and global expansion [2] - The Wuhan Optics Valley has emerged as a significant base for the aggregated intelligence industry, housing the largest and most diverse humanoid robot innovation center in the country [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry faces significant challenges, including shortages in high-end automotive chips and basic software, insufficient market demand, irrational competition, and the need for improved recycling systems for power batteries [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges - There are notable shortcomings in high-end automotive chips and basic software [1] - The market is experiencing insufficient effective demand [1] - The industry is plagued by prominent issues of irrational competition [1] - The support and guarantee system for power battery recycling needs urgent improvement [1] Group 2: Future Initiatives by the Ministry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to strengthen planning guidance by evaluating the development of the new energy vehicle industry and formulating a new development plan [1] - There will be increased efforts to support leading enterprises in innovation and technology development, focusing on new generation power batteries, automotive chips, operating systems, and autonomous driving [1] - The MIIT aims to promote automotive consumption through a new round of growth stabilization plans, optimizing tax policies for new energy vehicles [1] Group 3: Management and Cooperation - The MIIT will expedite the introduction of vehicle production access management regulations and support enterprises in enhancing their competitiveness [2] - There will be a focus on deepening open cooperation between domestic and foreign enterprises in capital, technology, management, and talent [2] - The ministry aims to address international trade barriers and safety risks while facilitating international standards recognition for carbon footprints [2]

（来源：都市现场） 9月12日，工业和信息化部等八部门关于印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知。主要目标为：2025年，力争实现全年汽车销量3230 万辆左右，同比增长约3%，其中新能源汽车销量1550万辆左右，同比增长约20%；汽车出口保持稳定增长；汽车制造业增加值同比增长6%左右。2026 年，行业运行保持稳中向好发展态势，产业规模和质量效益进一步提升。 推进智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点 有条件批准L3级车型生产准入 方案提出，推动智能网联技术产业化应用。深入开展智能网联汽车"车路云一体化"应用试点，加快网联基础设施和云控平台建设，鼓励汽车前装V2X、 5G等高性能通信模块，加快推进北斗系统规模化应用，促进物流、环卫、出行服务等多场景应用，鼓励重点地区逐步拓展跨区域协同应用。推进智能网 联汽车准入和上路通行试点，有条件批准L3级车型生产准入，推动道路交通安全、保险等法律法规完善。支持汽车、信息通信、交通等行业企业以数据 为纽带探索新型商业模式，加快多元化价值链培育。 加快突破汽车芯片、操作系统、人工智能、固态电池等关键技术 方案提出，以技术创新激发潜在消费需求。加快组织实施和超前 ...