智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，华尔街超级金融巨头摩根大通(JPM.US)已 任命一组来自美国政府的资深领导人，以加速推进其进入与美国国家安全和经济韧性相关的核心行业的 重大战略投资规划。该金融巨头于去年10月推出了为期10年且规模高达1.5万亿美元的"安全与韧性倡 议"(简称SRI)雄心壮志，旨在主导并加速促进半导体、量子计算、国防军工、能源、稀土、人工智能和 关键基础设施等关键行业的大规模融资和投资。 此前在2025年10月，摩根大通重磅宣布 "安全与韧性计划(Security and Resiliency Initiative)"——十年投 资总量1.5万亿美元，用于"促进、融资和投资"关乎美国经济与国家安全的核心产业。该项计划的重点 涵盖四大最关键方向：美国核心供应链与先进制造(含稀土等关键矿产、医药前体、机器人等)、国防与 航天、能源独立与多元化韧性、最前沿与核心战略类技术趋势(AI、核聚变、网络安全以及量子计算 等)。 凯文·奎因(Kevin Quinn)加入担任SRI美国核心前沿和战略技术负责人，他此前曾在美国商务部的CHIPS 项目(即芯片法案项目)办公室工作，且担任核 ...

监管筑牢，守护钱包"不松懈"。在优化服务的同时，人民银行浙江省分行组织杭州市各银行机构持续开 展人民币防伪与反假货币知识宣传，切实守护市民的"钱袋子"安全。相关部门正全力做好《人民币现金 收付及服务规定》的宣传贯彻，畅通投诉举报渠道，坚决整治拒收人民币现金的违法行为，维护人民币 法定地位，保障每一位市民的现金支付选择权，共同营造"放心用、安全用、满意用"的现金流通环境。 此次"暖新春"现金服务保障工作持续整个春节假期，一系列扎实举措确保杭州全市现金服务网络高效运 转，让市民和游客在杭州都能感受到便利与温暖，欢度一个祥和、团圆的春节。 黄宇翔 为保障广大市民和游客在春节期间享受便捷、安心的现金支付体验，人民银行浙江省分行近日统筹部署 全省，杭州市的金融机构积极响应，做好春节现金服务专项保障工作，确保现金供应充足、便民服务优 质、流通环境良好，让金融暖意融入杭城浓浓年味。 供应精准，保障现金"不断档"。针对春节期间商超、农贸市场、景区、餐饮等民生消费高频场景的现金 需求高峰，杭州市各银行机构提前科学测算各面额现金需求量，加大原封新券及小面额现金的调拨和投 放力度，着力构建"总量充足、结构优化、调拨迅速"的现金供应 ...

Core Insights - The report from JPMorgan Research indicates that U.S. mid-sized businesses have been severely impacted by tariffs, with monthly tariff expenditures tripling since early 2025 [1] - It highlights that U.S. businesses and consumers bear 96% of the tariff costs, with 43% of these costs passed on to consumer prices as of last October [1] - Long-term sustainability of this cost burden on businesses is questioned, as additional research from the New York Federal Reserve shows that about 90% of the extra costs from tariffs imposed in 2025 will be borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, contrary to the government's claims that foreign exporters would absorb these costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock increased its stake in Minsheng Bank by acquiring 1.814 million H-shares at an average price of HKD 4.1662 per share, raising its ownership from 5.98% to 6.00%, indicating international capital's interest in the bank [1] Stock Performance - As of February 20, 2026, Minsheng Bank's H-shares closed at HKD 4.11, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a cumulative drop of 2.14% over the past five days [1] - In the A-share market, the closing price on February 13 was CNY 3.93, with a five-day increase of 1.29%, although there was a net outflow of 135 million yuan from major funds, indicating short-term pressure on liquidity [1] Industry Analysis - The banking sector is expected to benefit from stabilized interest margins and improved asset quality in 2026, according to a financial weekly report by Western Securities [1] - The report suggests that shareholding banks need to rely on industry beta for a rebound, recommending attention to undervalued stocks like Minsheng Bank [1] - The pace of economic recovery and the extent of policy implementation will influence the valuation recovery potential of bank stocks [1]

2026年2月18日，黄金价格较昨日大跌18元/克，全国金饰报价在1288至1558元区间，品牌店与批发渠道价差惊人，既有紧盯国际行情的精明买家，也有冲着 工艺与售后去的刚需族。 银行金条对比方面，建设银行龙鼎金条1137.6元/克，工商银行如意金条1134.48元/克，农业银行传世之宝1144.92元/克，平安银行和谐平安金条1129.5元/克， 浦发银行投资金条却达1204元/克。 这一轮比下来，最高与最低相差74.5元，浦发明显贵出一截，平安最划算，差价足够让大额投资者多掂量几次，若跟上海黄金交易所金条1104.95元相比，银 行系普遍加价在25至100元不等，溢价来源主要是加工、运输与保管成本。 这次"一夜变天"源于国际金价大幅下探，伦敦金现跌破5000美元关口，带动国内大盘跟跌，渠道成本差异放大了零售与批发的价差，品牌店要承担门店、人 工、设计与营销等高额开支，批发则靠走量与低毛利运转，旅游区还要叠加场景溢价，于是出现国际跌、品牌缓调、批发快跟、景区反涨的复杂局面。 看似都在1515至1529元之间，算上工费与促销差异，实际到手价可能再高十几元，像老庙黄金1538元、六福珠宝1527元等，也在这个高 ...

"A股在经历了几次大牛市之后，这一次真正进入了'慢牛'阶段。"2月19日，摩根大通中国内地及香港地 区股票研究策略主管刘鸣镝做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展望"专题时指出， 与此前几次业绩达到周期性顶点、增量资金充裕但持续时间较短的牛市不同，本轮"慢牛"的核心逻辑在 于业绩温和持续向好，支持股指稳步上行。 刘鸣镝表示，基于摩根大通量化宏观指标，划分市场周期分为恢复（春）、扩张（夏）、降速（秋）、 收缩（冬）四个阶段，当前中国市场的业绩和经济增长处于"夏季"，整体趋势向好。 刘鸣镝认为，2025年中国资产凭借创新、"反内卷"及稳定的业绩表现崭露头角，2026年全球扩张仍处于 重要关口，"十五五"规划、业绩兑现度及行业轮动将成为影响人民币股票资产的关键变量。 中国资产三大亮点凸显 回顾2025年，刘鸣镝认为整体走势好于预期。全球经济增速高于年初预期，通胀与预期基本一致，财政 金融政策保持支持性，叠加人工智能相关硬件和基础设施的投资，整体趋势向好。MSCI世界股票指数 以美元计价的回报率达19.5%，表现最好的板块为通信服务（31%）和金融（26%），材料、工业、信 息技术板块回报率也接近2 ...

2024年"924"行情以来，A股市场经历了波澜壮阔的一年半。转眼间，我们已站在2026年的起点。随着上证指数创下近十年新高，市场在欢呼声中也开始出 现分歧：这轮牛市还能涨多久？是"烟花"将尽，还是"慢牛"刚启？ 作为自媒体创作者，我结合近期方正证券、国泰海通、高盛、中信建投等机构的官方核心观点，为你抽丝剥茧，聊聊我对这轮牛市终局的深度思考。 3. 科技的突破：重塑估值体系的引擎如果说资金是血液，那么科技就是心脏。2025年DeepSeek、机器人、集成电路等新技术的出现，打开了市场对未来增 长的预期空间 2026年初的A股，已经不是那个在绝望中重生的少年，而是一位步入壮年的奔跑者。 方正证券在2026年初的研报中明确指出，A股已经进入牛市第三年 这意味着什么？意味着 "闭眼买入都能涨"的阶段可能已经过去。2026年的市场，大概率不会再是单纯的普涨，而是对节奏把握和结构选择的巨大考验。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕将这轮牛市定义为 "转型牛" 。他认为，这轮行情的典型特征是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉映。虽然市场在2025年经 历了大幅波动，但这头"牛"远未结束，2026年甚至有望挑战十年前的高位 要判断牛 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% increase in December, marking the largest rise in nearly a year [1][9] - Year-over-year core PCE rose to 3% in December, up from 2.8% at the beginning of 2025 [1][12] Inflation Data - December PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-over-year, compared to a previous value of 2.8% [10] - The month-over-month PCE price index rose by 0.4%, matching expectations and the previous month's figure [11] - Core PCE price index increased by 3% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 2.9% [12] - Month-over-month core PCE price index also rose by 0.4%, in line with expectations [13] Economic Indicators - The SuperCore PCE, which excludes certain volatile items, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3][16] - Service prices continue to drive inflation, with notable increases in legal service prices observed in January [3][16] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in December, consistent with expectations [20] - Actual personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.3% previously [20] - Personal income rose by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.4% [20] Market Reaction - Following the release of PCE data, U.S. stock futures declined, with the Nasdaq futures down by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.24%, and Dow futures down by 0.18% [22] - Market participants continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before June [22]

Group 1 - Major blue-chip stocks mostly rose, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 137.775, up 2.59% from the previous close in Hong Kong [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 531.758, an increase of 1.87% from the previous close in Hong Kong [2] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings reported a latest price of HKD 522.000, down HKD 11.000 or 2.06%, with an ADR price of HKD 531.758, showing an increase of HKD 9.758 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3] - Alibaba Group (W) had a latest price of HKD 147.100, down HKD 7.600 or 4.91%, with an ADR price of HKD 150.874, reflecting an increase of HKD 3.774 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3] - HSBC Holdings had a latest price of HKD 134.300, up HKD 0.100 or 0.07%, with an ADR price of HKD 137.775, indicating an increase of HKD 3.475 compared to the Hong Kong stock price [3]