Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to shift from a cyclical perspective to focusing on financial performance, highlighting that the difficulty in predicting pig prices is increasing while operational efficiency differences among companies remain significant [19] - The report suggests that the current valuation of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with cost-leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty in 2025 [19] - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies such as Decon Agriculture and Livestock, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs [19] Summary by Sections 1.1. Swine - The latest pig price is 14.69 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight slightly increasing to 129.03 kg, and 15 kg piglets priced around 541 CNY/head [6][18] - The number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% [7][18] - The report indicates that the government is committed to stabilizing pig prices and may continue to strengthen production capacity regulation [7][18] 1.2. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 1.5 CNY/bird, up 50% month-on-month but down 39% year-on-year; the price of broilers is 3.2 CNY/kg, up 7.8% month-on-month [20] - The report notes a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption" in the white feather chicken industry, with losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [20] - Key investment focuses include high-quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [20] 1.3. Feed - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the industry and improved management effectiveness, with rising capacity utilization and expected growth [21] - Recent price performance of various aquatic products shows significant year-on-year increases [21] 1.4. Pets - The pet industry saw a slight slowdown in sales growth in June, attributed to the early start of the 618 shopping festival [23] - The report highlights the limited impact of tariff uncertainties on the pet sector in the long term, with companies having strong overseas operations [23] 1.5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's report indicates a slight downward adjustment in planting area, which is seen as bullish, while the overall report is viewed as neutral [25] - The report notes that natural rubber is entering a production peak season, with supply pressures continuing [25] 2. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4015, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.09% [26] - The breeding sector showed the best performance with a 2.60% increase [26]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope is expected to report a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of 1.217 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has improved its production management and epidemic prevention measures in pig farming, leading to a turnaround in profitability despite a year-on-year decline in average pig prices [1]. - The feed business has also shown continuous optimization, achieving both volume and profit growth in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The chairman of New Hope emphasized a focus on quality and efficiency rather than blind capacity expansion in the pig industry, aligning with national policies to stabilize pig production capacity [1]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas business as a new growth driver, targeting an additional 3 to 4 million tons of overseas feed production capacity over the next 3 to 5 years [1]. Group 3: Industry Context - Since 2021, the pig farming industry has faced challenges such as African swine fever and cyclical fluctuations, leading to New Hope's first loss [2]. - With the stabilization of pig prices last year, New Hope has returned to profitability and plans to focus on breeding and digitalization to continue reducing costs and increasing efficiency [2].

Group 1 - The company expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit between 19 million and 25 million yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [1][2] - The seed business has shown significant growth, with rice seed sales increasing by over 100% and corn seed sales increasing by over 300% year-on-year [1] - The company has improved its feed business, with sales growth and reduced operating expenses due to enhanced management and efficiency [1] Group 2 - The company has reported a total of 3.8347 million pigs sold from its controlled and affiliated companies, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.64% [2] - Continuous improvements in production metrics and breeding capabilities have led to a decrease in pig farming costs, contributing to profitability in the pig farming segment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved the draft of the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan, which is deemed beneficial for its sustainable development and compliant with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Proceedings - The sixth session of the Supervisory Board held its 11th temporary meeting on July 11, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and the meeting was deemed legal and effective [1]. - The meeting passed the resolution regarding the draft of the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan with a unanimous vote of 3 in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1][2]. Group 2: Incentive Plan Approval - The Supervisory Board confirmed that the draft of the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan complies with the relevant laws and regulations, and it does not harm the interests of the company and all shareholders [2]. - The plan will be submitted for approval at the shareholders' meeting [2][3]. Group 3: Implementation Management - The 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan Implementation Assessment Management Measures were also approved unanimously, ensuring the smooth implementation of the incentive plan [2][3]. - The management measures are designed to ensure the plan operates in a standardized manner and aligns with the company's sustainable development goals [2]. Group 4: Incentive Object List - The list of incentive objects for the 2025 Stock Option and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan was approved, confirming that all listed individuals meet the qualifications set forth by relevant laws and regulations [3]. - The individuals on the list have not been deemed inappropriate candidates by the stock exchange or regulatory authorities in the past 12 months [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 190 million and 260 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 115 million and 185 million yuan [1] - The company has experienced year-on-year growth in sales of feed, poultry, and pigs during the reporting period [1] Cost and Pricing Factors - Major feed raw material prices, such as soybean meal and corn, are operating at low levels, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The costs associated with pig and poultry farming have decreased year-on-year, further enhancing the company's overall operational efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders ranging from 13.8 million to 15.3 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.0411 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be a loss between 14.5 million and 16 million yuan, compared to a loss of 6.112 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.09 to 0.1 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.03 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Revenue Expectations - The company's operating revenue is anticipated to grow by 30% to 40% compared to the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The performance decline is primarily due to several newly constructed factories still being in the ramp-up phase, resulting in ineffective capacity release and increased fixed costs from depreciation of completed facilities, leading to a decrease in overall gross margin [1] - Changes in customer structure have led to a significant increase in accounts receivable, resulting in a corresponding increase in the provision for bad debts [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Views - In the second quarter of 2025, the average price of live pigs is expected to be 14.5 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous quarter and 11.4% year-on-year. However, due to the decline in raw material prices and improved breeding performance, listed companies are optimizing costs [15][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining low at an average of 11.3 CNY/kg, down 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 15.5% year-on-year. The profitability of leading companies like Wen's Group may be under pressure due to these price declines [15][16] - The feed sector is benefiting from stable pig prices and rising aquatic product prices, with Haida Group expected to achieve a feed sales volume of approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [15][16] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The national price of lean meat pigs is 14.54 CNY/kg, down 2% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, with a focus on leading companies and low-cost high-growth targets such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Group [2][16] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 6.24 CNY/kg, down 7.6% from last week, while chicken product prices average 8.38 CNY/kg, down 0.9% [16][30] - The price of parent stock chicken chicks is 47.2 CNY/set, up 1% week-on-week, while the price of meat chicken chicks is 0.99 CNY each, down 27.2% [26][28] Feed Sector - Haida Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.218-1.518 billion CNY in the second quarter, with a year-on-year change of -3.64% to +20.1% [15][16] - The pet feed industry continues to maintain high growth, with expectations for Zhongchong Group to achieve a net profit of approximately 120 million CNY in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [15][16] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as actual transaction prices and profit distribution are confirmed [16] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller companies due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to resonate positively, with strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The leading pig companies are reporting significant profit increases for Q2 2025, with a notable rise in pig output and a decrease in production costs, indicating a potential for sustained profitability [4][13] - The beef cycle remains supported by rising calf prices and a decrease in cattle inventory, suggesting a favorable outlook for beef prices in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [6][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Leading pig companies are expected to report substantial profit growth for H1 2025, with estimates for Muyuan Foods indicating a net profit of 10.2-10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [4][13] - The average cost of production for Muyuan Foods has decreased to below 12.1 yuan/kg, supporting profitability through the cycle [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural index has risen by 1.09% in the week of July 4-11, 2025, aligning with the overall market performance [39][41] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply contraction, which is expected to drive pig prices upward after a period of fluctuation [5][14] Price Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% from the previous week, while the price of piglets has increased by 1.79% to 31.89 yuan/kg [48][49] - The wholesale price of beef is reported at 69.82 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [56] Recommendations - The report recommends investment in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others in the pig farming sector due to improving investment logic and favorable market conditions [6][35] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to strong domestic and overseas demand [35]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector, noting a slowdown in the growth rate of breeding sows in June, and highlights the expectation gap in the pig market [1][2] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust growth potential [3][4] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with investment recommendations based on supply and demand dynamics [5][6][7] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding, with recommendations for key seed and agricultural companies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, while the animal health sector is advised to focus on new demands and innovative products [24][25] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 12, the average price of pigs in China is 14.91 CNY/kg, down 2.42% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 177 CNY per head [1][16] - The report highlights the low valuation and expectation gap in the pig sector, recommending leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][16] Pet Sector - In June 2025, pet sales on Douyin reached 964 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 73.97%, indicating strong growth for domestic brands [3][17] - Pet food exports from China increased by 10.89% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, reaching 41.75 billion CNY [4][17] Poultry Sector - The report notes a 33.46% year-on-year decline in the breeding stock of grandparent chickens due to import restrictions, with a total of 529,300 sets updated in the first half of 2025 [5][19] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock [6][20] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for high yield production to ensure food security, with a focus on integrating advanced agricultural technologies [9][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [10][23] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is highlighted for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market share growth and performance consistency [24][26] - The animal health sector is advised to focus on new product development and market expansion, particularly in the pet health segment [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy guidance has led to a rapid decline in post-slaughter weight, allowing for a rebalancing of volume and price, with positive expectations for pig prices [3] - The long-term perspective indicates that the bottom of the production capacity cycle is becoming clearer, suggesting a potential long-term profit upturn for the sector [3] - The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including pig farming, feed, and planting chains, as well as the pet food sector [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.2681 million pigs, a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55% [2][13] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by approximately 3% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year, with prices ranging from 13.23 to 15.57 yuan/kg [14][15] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in June was 125.06 kg, down 0.77 kg from May, indicating a trend towards reducing weight [17] Market Dynamics - The national average price for live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg as of July 11, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.52% [28] - The demand for pork is weakening due to high temperatures affecting consumption and rising storage costs, leading to a gradual loosening of supply-demand dynamics [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological [3] - In the planting chain, opportunities are highlighted for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] Other Segments - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies [3]