Core Viewpoint - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total package volume of 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with an average daily package volume of 92 million. For the entire year of 2025, the total package volume surpassed 30 billion for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with an average daily package volume of 82.5 million, up 22.6%. The overall growth of J&T Express is attributed to strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets, along with stable contributions from the Chinese market. The global package volume exceeding 30 billion in 2025 marks a new starting point for the company. The company will continue to strengthen its global network and drive growth through innovation to meet market demand [1][2][3]. Investment Logic - Southeast Asia maintains a solid leading position in the express delivery market, ranking first in package volume for six consecutive years. As the business scale increases, the company continues to optimize unit costs, allowing for cost reductions that benefit customers. This has led to the elimination of smaller express companies and a widening gap with competitors who have self-built logistics [5][6]. - J&T Express is positioned as a shadow stock benefiting from TikTok's global e-commerce expansion, which will accelerate in overseas markets starting in 2024, focusing on Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Due to its robust network and high cost-performance ratio, J&T Express supports TikTok's e-commerce business model [6][7]. Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the package volume in Southeast Asia reached 2.436 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while the total annual package volume for 2025 was 7.66 billion, up 67.8%. This growth is driven by increased investment from e-commerce platform clients, promotional activities, and a diverse range of product categories [2][3]. - The Chinese market saw a Q4 package volume of 5.89 billion, a slight decline of 0.4%, with an annual package volume of 22.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. The slowdown in the Chinese express delivery industry is evident, prompting the company to adjust its strategy for quality growth [3][4]. - New markets experienced a Q4 package volume of 134 million, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual volume of 404 million, up 43.6%. The low e-commerce penetration rate and the company's continuous improvement of the express network contribute to this growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - 2026 is expected to be a turning point for business explosion and profitability in the Latin American market, with e-commerce growth in 2025 exceeding the global average. The partnership with the largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, Mercado Libre, and the fastest-growing TikTok is anticipated to double order growth in 2026 [2][7]. - The company forecasts package volumes of 30.1 billion and 35.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.2% and 16.6%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $980 million and $1.44 billion for 2025 and 2026, with net profits of $260 million and $545 million [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has shown strong growth in its operational performance, particularly in Southeast Asia, while facing challenges in the Chinese market. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the Southeast Asian logistics sector due to strategic investments and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. The Southeast Asian package volume reached 2.436 billion pieces, up 73.6%, while the Chinese package volume was 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% [1]. - The new market package volume reached 134 million pieces in Q4 2025, marking a 79.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jitu Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in Southeast Asia, with package volume projected to reach 7.366 billion pieces in Q4 2025, reflecting a 67.8% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [1]. - The company has established nine new transfer centers and added 80 self-owned transport vehicles in new markets, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to the better-than-expected growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, Jitu Express has revised its profit forecasts upward. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, focusing on compliance and rational competition while maintaining high growth rates in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The 2026 National Postal Work Conference indicates that the express delivery industry will continue to grow, with an expected business volume of 2.14 billion packages, representing an approximate 8% year-on-year increase [3]. - In 2025, the national express business revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, while the business volume was 1.99 billion packages, growing by 13.7% [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a double-digit growth rate in express volume due to policies aimed at boosting consumption [3]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - The conference emphasized the need to shift from traditional reliance on scale and speed to qualitative improvements and reasonable growth, discouraging the "price for volume" model [2]. - In 2025, several regions in China raised express delivery prices, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package, indicating a general acceptance among customers [3][4]. - The price adjustments are seen as necessary for the industry's healthy development, allowing for adequate profit margins to support investments in service quality [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing an increase in the application of technology, including the deployment of over 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles, which have significantly reduced transportation costs by 50% [6]. - Companies like Yunda are investing in AI technologies to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, developing tailored solutions for the industry [6]. Group 4: International Expansion - The industry is encouraged to accelerate international expansion while adapting strategies to local market conditions, avoiding the direct replication of domestic pricing strategies [7]. - Jitu reported a 73.6% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia, reaching 2.44 billion packages in Q4 2025, while also achieving significant growth in new markets [7]. - SF Express reported a 27% year-on-year growth in international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in international business [7].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is moving towards high-quality development, with a focus on compliance and rational competition, as indicated by the recent national postal work conference held on January 7, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Pricing - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2026, with ongoing price adjustments for e-commerce collection services [1]. - Various regions in China have raised express delivery prices in 2025, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package [1]. - Customers have shown a high acceptance level for the price increases, as the overall pricing in 2025 remains relatively low compared to previous years [1]. Group 2: Industry Strategy and Technology - The industry is moving away from a price-for-volume strategy to ensure healthy development and adequate profit margins, which are essential for investments in equipment, personnel, quality, and service [2]. - Some delivery points plan to accelerate the deployment of unmanned devices in 2026, although strict local regulations currently limit their implementation [2]. - There are plans to introduce unmanned vehicles to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, reflecting a strategic shift towards technological advancement [2].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, focusing on compliance and rational competition while maintaining high growth rates in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The 2026 National Postal Work Conference indicates that the express delivery industry will shift its focus from traditional scale and speed to qualitative improvements and reasonable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - In 2025, the national express delivery business revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, with a volume of 199 billion pieces, showing year-on-year growth of 6.5% and 13.7% respectively. The industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, with an estimated volume of 214 billion pieces, reflecting an 8% increase [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The express delivery pricing system is expected to rise this year, with various regions having already increased prices for e-commerce packages. Price increases ranged from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package in several cities [4]. - The adjustment in pricing is seen as necessary for the industry's healthy development, as it allows for adequate profit margins, which are essential for investments in service quality and operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Companies are accelerating the application of technology, with over 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles operating in more than 26 cities, significantly reducing transportation costs and delivery times [8]. - The industry is also investing in AI technologies, with companies like Yunda integrating advanced models to enhance customer service and operational efficiency [8]. Group 4: International Expansion - The trend of internationalization is gaining momentum, with companies like Jitu and SF Express accelerating their overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [9]. - Jitu reported a 73.6% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q4 2025, while SF Express saw a 27% growth in international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue [9].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4 last year for growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, primarily due to increased online sales penetration and enhanced platform investments [1] Group 1: Company Performance - J&T Express's Q4 package volume growth surpassed expectations, prompting an upward revision of the package volume growth forecast for this year in Southeast Asia and new markets from 25%-30% to 30%-35% [1] - The company is now considered a top pick in the industry, with Daiwa maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Daiwa has increased its earnings per share forecast for J&T Express for the years 2025 to 2027 by 4% to 37% [1] - The report anticipates a moderation in average price pressure in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4 last year for growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, driven by increased online sales penetration and platform investments [1] Group 1: Company Performance - J&T Express's Q4 package volume growth surpassed expectations, prompting an upward revision of the package volume growth forecast for this year in Southeast Asia and new markets from 25%-30% to 30%-35% [1] - The company’s earnings per share forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 4% to 37% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating on J&T Express, raising the target price from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5 [1] - The average price pressure in China is expected to ease [1]

美银证券发表研究报告指，极兔速递于去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现 突出。数据显示，东南亚每日平均包裹量按年增长73.6%至2650万件，新市场每日包裹量增长79.7%至 145万件，两者均超出预期。基于第四季度表现超出预期，美银将极兔速递2025至2027财年的non-IFRS 盈利预测上调2至3%，并将目标价轻微上调至12.8港元，重申其为2026年的行业首选，评级"买入"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that J&T Express exceeded expectations in Southeast Asia and new market growth in Q4 last year, driven by increased online sales penetration and platform investments [1] - The target price for J&T Express has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 14.5, and it is classified as the industry’s preferred stock [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 4% to 37% [1] Group 2 - The forecast for package volume growth in Southeast Asia and new markets for J&T Express has been revised upward from 25%-30% to 30%-35% due to the unexpected growth in package volume in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in express delivery volume by November 2025, indicating a continued trend of slow growth and effective implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery volume growth rate is expected to drop to single digits in Q4, with the Double Eleven shopping festival showing a year-on-year increase of 9%, a slowdown compared to the 21% growth in 2024 [2]. - The anti-involution measures implemented since July 2025 have effectively driven price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery sector, which may influence the growth trend of small and light packages and enhance the quality of express delivery demand [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Share - The anti-involution policies have led to an increase in single-package revenue, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan per package respectively since July [3]. - The market concentration has stabilized, with the industry CR8 remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a slight recovery in market share for YTO since Q4 2025, attributed to AI integration and infrastructure upgrades [3]. - The net profit margins for major companies in Q3 2025 were as follows: Zhongtong -0.9%, YTO +0.07%, Yunda -1.5%, and Shentong +0.5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in Q4 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures have been effectively enforced, with the State Post Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involutionary" competition, leading to price stabilization and gradual expansion of price increases to key regions [4]. - The positive effects of the current anti-involution policies are expected to continue, supporting healthy competition and ongoing profitability recovery in the industry [4]. - Future focus should be on the regulatory strength of anti-involution measures and the competitive strategies of companies within the industry [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish rating on the express delivery sector, highlighting leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from profitability improvements and high overseas volume growth [5]. - SF Express is noted for its operational mechanisms that drive volume growth, with short-term performance fluctuations attributed to proactive market expansion strategies and necessary long-term investments [5].