研究员：韩军/梁骁 风险分析 机构：中信建投证券 核心观点 公司基本面逻辑未改变，能力建设推动新场景业务增长。外卖秒送配送业务催化营收超速预期，但短期 人工成本、行政管理费用及资源投入扩大使利润释放承压。长期看，把骑手管理纳入进来，由京东物流 统一负责"快递+即配"，可以让小哥同时配送"快递、外卖、闪购"等业态，最大程度发挥人效。未来 以"近45 万快递员+15 余万骑手"为运力池，增强京东物流同城配送能力基础。 事件 12 月26 日，京东物流无人机首次完成海外试飞，这也是公司首次在海外使用无人机进行货物运输，成 为"快递出海"的重要实践。 同日，公司首个海外智狼仓在英国正式投用。 1 月1 日起，2026 年消费品以旧换新补贴正式落地，当天，京东物流在全国多地同步完成2026 年"国 补"首单履约。1 月5 日，首单由机器人参与配送完成的国补订单。 简评 公司目前国际业务占营收比大概不到5%，2026 年预计国际业务的收入延续25 年的高速增长趋势。在科 技方面，公司结合机器人和自动化技术的实际落地推广效果，有序推进自动化设备（无人车、无人机） 及各种机器人的规模部署，资本开支规模会呈现逐年缓慢提升的趋势 ...

伴随技术、价格的变化，快递业正向高质量发展迈进。 1月7日，2026年全国邮政工作会议在北京召开。从行业数据和会议释放的信号看，2026年快递业将继续 保持高增速，同时进一步向合规、理性竞争的方向发展。 继续聚焦价格 2026年全国邮政工作会议指出，"十五五"时期，全行业要摆脱对规模和速度的传统路径依赖，将发展重 心切换到质的有效提升和量的合理增长上来。前瞻性应对存量市场竞争带来的新挑战，引导企业摒 弃"以价换量"旧模式，着力遏制无序非理性竞争，追求实实在在、成色更足的增长，解决好末端服务不 告而投、丢失损坏的问题。 此外，会议强调，行业要注重普惠性基础性兜底性民生建设，以及持续优化国际物流组织模式，强化与 跨境电商、中国制造的信息协同、资源协同和业务协同。 对此，快递物流专家赵小敏对第一财经记者表示，从监管层释放的信号看，今年将继续引导企业向高质 量的路径发展，同时平衡好快递公司、加盟商和快递员三方的利益。 另一方面，在监管加强的背景下，行业会进一步合规化，包括企业的环保责任、快递员的福利保障、派 费机制和消费者的权益等方面，在监管加强下预计都会有提升。 国家邮政局披露的数据显示，2025年全国快递业务收入 ...

国家邮政局披露的数据显示，2025年全国快递业务收入和快递业务量分别完成1.5万亿元和1990亿件，同比分别增长6.5%和13.7%。2026年行业仍将保持稳步 上升态势，预计快递业务量完成2140亿件，同比增长8%左右。邮政行业业务收入、快递业务收入稳步提升。 继续聚焦价格 伴随技术、价格的变化，快递业正向高质量发展迈进。 2026年全国邮政工作会议指出，"十五五"时期，全行业要摆脱对规模和速度的传统路径依赖，将发展重心切换到质的有效提升和量的合理增长上来。前瞻性 应对存量市场竞争带来的新挑战，引导企业摒弃"以价换量"旧模式，着力遏制无序非理性竞争，追求实实在在、成色更足的增长，解决好末端服务不告而 投、丢失损坏的问题。 此外，会议强调，行业要注重普惠性基础性兜底性民生建设，以及持续优化国际物流组织模式，强化与跨境电商、中国制造的信息协同、资源协同和业务协 同。 对此，快递物流专家赵小敏对第一财经记者表示，从监管层释放的信号看，今年将继续引导企业向高质量的路径发展，同时平衡好快递公司、加盟商和快递 员三方的利益。 另一方面，在监管加强的背景下，行业会进一步合规化，包括企业的环保责任、快递员的福利保障、派费机 ...

在一个打破常规、不断变革的时代，我们无时无刻不在与新的技术、潮流和秩序发生碰撞。这其中有愕然，有崩溃，有疑惑，有挣扎。 在这个意义上，亿豹网认为，生活本身就是一种体验和冒险。面对纷繁复杂的世界，在不确定的年代，最大的确定性来自于自己。无论是擅长的，还是被 选择的，2026年我们看到了更多的行业确定性，选择一条让自己保持生长的路径，既是机遇，也是挑战。 趋势一 行业进入存量竞争 从2025年业务旺季的数据不难看出，行业增速放缓至个位数已无法避免。造成这一结果的因素有很多，其中包括上游电商平台增长乏力、税务严管之下商 家不断规范交易行为、行业反内卷涨价等等。 行业进入存量竞争的核心驱动力，是市场环境的根本变化。在存量市场下，价格争夺将更加激烈。可以想象，反内卷带来的涨价潮将在局部地区失效，叠 加黄牛揽件行为扰乱市场秩序，保护现有价格体系压力较大，一线网点稳定性面临考验。 亿豹网获悉，政策层面，2026年有望出台反内卷落地举措，来引导优化竞争行为。面对存量竞争，快递企业必须全面加速数智化转型，以技术创新提升运 营效率和服务质量。同时，消费者对个性化、定制化服务的需求日益增长，企业需在产品和服务上推陈出新。 存量竞争 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a focus on efficiency and service competition, indicating a need for independent thinking and adaptation to new challenges [1] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth rates, with the overall business volume growth dropping to 5% in November, down from 20% earlier in the year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature and stable growth phase [3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" campaign initiated by the State Post Bureau aims to address the industry's low-price competition, leading to improved profitability for express companies, although some frontline outlets still face challenges due to rising costs [2] - The double eleven shopping festival saw a total of 139.38 billion packages collected, marking a 9% increase from the previous year, but the growth rate is slowing, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior and market saturation [3] - The introduction of tax reporting requirements for online platforms starting October 1, 2025, will expose fraudulent activities such as order brushing, pushing the industry towards compliance and authenticity [5] Group 2: Company Developments - YTO Express launched its strategic hub, the Dongfang Tiandi Port, with an investment of 12.2 billion yuan, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy and aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the logistics sector [6] - Shentong Express completed the acquisition of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, enhancing its operational capabilities and positioning itself in the "quality express" market while Alibaba shifts its focus towards core strategic areas [7] - JD Logistics and SF Express are expanding their international operations, with JD launching a new self-operated B2C brand in Saudi Arabia and SF establishing international air routes, indicating a strong push towards global market penetration [14] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI technologies in the express delivery sector is transforming operations, with applications in route optimization and operational efficiency, exemplified by YTO's "smart routing" system [9] - The rise of robotics in the industry is being observed, with advancements in sorting and delivery processes, although challenges remain in achieving efficiency comparable to human workers [15] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The frequent switching of return logistics among various express companies highlights the competitive nature of the market, with companies vying for the more profitable return business as opposed to standard deliveries [10] - The emergence of "sheep shearing" tactics among consumers exploiting platform loopholes poses a challenge for express companies, necessitating stricter regulations to protect the integrity of the logistics chain [12]

国盛证券（002670）看好快递行业两条投资主线。1)出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外电商GMV爆 发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长；2)"反内卷"线：快递行业增速由于基数增大和快递价格拉涨等因 素持续放缓，通达内部分化并未因为"反内卷"而中断，反而因为行业增速红利消减而加大。"反内卷"背 景下更考验快递总部管理能力和网络实力，头部快递竞争实力能显著放大，份额逐步向其集中。头部快 递份额、利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。 中泰证券（600918）认为，"反内卷+无人化"共同催化快递行业经营质量改善，跨境物流关注嘉友国际 （603871）盈利改善持续性。1)快递行业高质量发展持续推进，"反内卷"政策或加码提振行业盈利预 期。2)无人驾驶或加速催化产业变革。目前，京东、菜鸟、顺丰等物流快递巨头在无人车等相关领域均 有布局，在政策推动、技术进步与资本加持背景下，配送业务变革或加速。 12月16日记者从国家邮政局获悉，前11个月，我国邮政行业寄递业务量累计完成1967.5亿件，同比增长 12.9%。其中，快递业务量累计完成1807.4亿件，同比增长14.9%。当日，国家邮政局公布邮政行业运行 情况。前11个月，我国邮政行 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is projected to reach a business volume of 204 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6%. The growth rate for the first half of the year was 19.3%, while the second half is expected to be around 14% [1][5] - The average price decline for the year is anticipated to be -6.9%, indicating a slowdown in price competition due to the application of unmanned technologies that reduce costs [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The State Post Bureau has emphasized anti-involution policies to alleviate low-price competition during the summer off-peak season, similar to measures taken in 2021 [1][6] - E-commerce platforms are undermining express companies' data control capabilities through data privacy measures, which restrict their commercial development and service quality improvements [1][10] - The rise of instant retail may harm seller interests, prompting the State Administration for Market Regulation to address related platforms [1][11] - The changing global manufacturing landscape is impacting international express companies, with Chinese logistics firms expected to dominate the global market by 2035, with five out of the top ten express logistics companies projected to be from China [1][17][18] Regional Competition and Market Dynamics - There is a notable regional price competition phenomenon, particularly in Hebei and Henan, where aggressive pricing strategies are observed [1][7] - The express delivery market in Zhejiang is experiencing a decline in its national share, indicating a shift in business dynamics due to high labor and rental costs [1][12][15] Company-Specific Insights - J&T Express is recognized for its innovative internet-based approach, rapidly expanding market share through a unique shareholding model that combines direct sales and franchising [1][4][22] - SF Express reported a business volume growth of 25.7% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry average by 6.4 percentage points, attributed to operational model innovations [1][32][33] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to generate revenues of 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with potential growth to four to five trillion yuan in the future [1][29] - The anticipated growth in cross-border e-commerce and customized logistics services is expected to significantly contribute to the industry's expansion [1][29][30] Additional Important Insights - The impact of leadership changes in postal companies can significantly affect performance, with new leadership often driving positive results [1][35] - The performance evaluation systems differ between postal and private enterprises, with private companies focusing on profit maximization [1][36] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the express delivery industry, highlighting growth projections, competitive dynamics, and the implications of regulatory policies.

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed remarkable performance in 2024, with eight major listed companies achieving a total revenue of approximately 791.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, and a net profit of 35.58 billion yuan, a significant increase of 93.67% [1][2] - The industry is benefiting from digital transformation and the introduction of intelligent systems, which enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [1][4] Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported the highest net profit growth rate, achieving a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan, up 15.26%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24% [2] - JD Logistics followed with an adjusted net profit growth of 186.8% to 7.9 billion yuan, driven by revenue expansion and refined management [2] - SF Holding's net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, marking a new high since its listing, supported by supply chain and international business growth [2] - Jitu Express turned around with a net profit of 1.1 billion USD (approximately 7.99 billion yuan) in 2024, recovering from a loss of 11.6 billion USD in 2023 [2] Industry Drivers - The "Express into Villages" initiative has significantly improved logistics networks, with 346,000 village-level logistics service stations established [3] - The rise of live e-commerce contributed to the express delivery sector, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of e-commerce growth [3] Technological Advancements - The express delivery industry is undergoing a technological transformation, with over 90% of large-scale processing centers achieving automation [4] - SF Holding invested 4 billion yuan in automation and logistics infrastructure, increasing its automated sorting rate to 92% and reducing transit costs by 23% compared to three years ago [5] - Yunda Express is enhancing its management efficiency and service quality through continuous digital and intelligent transformation [5] International Expansion - SF Holding has deepened its global presence, winning over 100 overseas supply chain projects, with international revenue growing by 24.81% to 32.16 billion yuan [6] - Yunda Express has expanded its international network, covering over 150 countries, with overseas revenue increasing by 43.13% to 1.03 billion yuan [6] - Other companies like Yunda, Jitu, Zhongtong, and Debang are also accelerating their international strategies through various means [6]

Core Insights - The company has launched a specialized lychee transportation service in Hong Kong, enhancing logistics capabilities to meet customer demands [1][5] - The logistics network for lychee includes a comprehensive service covering production, harvesting, transportation, and sales, aimed at ensuring efficient logistics during peak seasons [1][2] - The company has established a global fresh fruit distribution network, facilitating the export of Chinese agricultural brands to international markets [1][4] Logistics and Operations - The company has implemented a multi-faceted logistics strategy, including the use of dedicated cargo planes, cold chain vehicles, and high-speed rail resources to enhance delivery efficiency [2][3] - A significant increase in logistics resources has been noted, with 34 self-operated cargo flights and 120 chartered flights, representing a year-on-year increase of 10 and 58 respectively [2] - The company has expanded its cold chain logistics capabilities with over 30,000 specialized refrigerated vehicles and more than 200 cold transport routes [3] Market Demand and Growth - The lychee delivery volume has increased dramatically, from over 40,000 shipments in 2013 to over 3 million in 2023, reflecting a 75-fold growth in demand over the past decade [3] - Major cities for lychee consumption include Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing, with emerging markets in cities like Changsha and Hangzhou [3] - The company is focusing on air transport for lychee distribution, achieving nationwide delivery within two days for most locations [4] E-commerce Integration - The company is enhancing its logistics services to support live-streaming e-commerce, integrating with platforms like Douyin to streamline order processing and delivery [5] - The logistics model includes cold chain direct delivery and rapid local and cross-city shipping options to meet consumer demands [5]