周一（10月20日）亚市早盘，欧元/美元微幅上涨，最新欧元兑美元汇率报1.1660，涨幅0.08%，尽管周 末传出不利消息，包括消息人士透露特朗普敦促乌克兰总统泽连斯基向俄罗斯让步，以及标普意外下调 法国评级（Full Story），汇价在亚洲早盘并未出现明显下跌，展现出一定韧性。 欧元在上周表现出色，欧元对美元汇率周线上涨0.31%，至1.1651，主要得益于法国政府暂停养老金改 革，总理勒科尔尼在不信任投票中幸存，缓解了政治不确定性。 国际信用评级机构标准普尔17日晚发布报告，将法国长期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，评 级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。这是标普近一年半内第二次下调法国主权信用评级。 标普原定11月底公布法国主权信用评级报告，但近期法国政局变化，该机构决定提前发布报告。报告指 出，尽管法国政府本周已向议会提交2026年预算草案，但法国"公共财政的不确定性依然很高"，这可能 抑制投资和私人消费，影响经济增长，进而拖累整体经济表现。 从技术面看，图表显示21日布林带区间下移，10日与21日移动均线亦同步走低。日线动能指标呈中性 ——近期反弹后留下中性格局。 阻力方面，上周五高点1 ...

市场成员评价是指投资人、专家等对信用评级机构的评级质量和服务能力等情况的评价。 监管自律评价是指信用评级行业主管部门和业务管理部门、自律组织、市场基础设施对信用评级机构合 规执业能力等情况的评价。 根据信用评级机构在评价期间履行社会公益责任等情况，在评价总分基础上进行相应加分。根据信用评 级机构及相关人员在评价期间受到司法机关刑事处罚、行业主管部门和业务管理部门行政处罚或行政监 管措施、自律组织自律措施等情况，在评分总分基础上进行相应扣减，并实行累积减分，因同一行为被 采取相关措施时，按最大扣分值扣减。 参加评价的评级机构应按要求提交和披露自评材料，并保证资料真实、准确、完整（加盖公章）。参与 打分的市场机构和专家分别将加盖公章（或部门章）和签名的打分表反馈至证券业协会和交易商协会。 评价材料及打分表可使用中国证券业协会数据报送系统、NAFMII综合平台存续期服务系统提交，或通 过电子邮件等方式反馈，截止时间为2025年10月22日。 参与评价的机构和相关人员应客观公正对信用评级机构进行评价，并保守商业秘密，不得泄露可能影响 市场评价公正性的有关信息，如与评价工作存在利害关系的，应当回避。 据悉，本次评价期为 ...

Core Points - The China Securities Association and the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors have issued a notice regarding the market-oriented evaluation of credit rating agencies for the year 2025 [1] - The evaluation aims to enhance self-regulation among credit rating agencies, improve rating quality, and bolster industry credibility to support the high-quality development of the multi-tiered bond market [1][2] Evaluation Framework - The evaluation period is set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, focusing on the performance of 14 credit rating agencies in the exchange and interbank bond markets [2] - The evaluation criteria consist of three categories: Business Foundation Evaluation (60 points), Market Member Evaluation (30 points), and Regulatory Self-Discipline Evaluation (10 points) [2] - Agencies will receive additional points for fulfilling social responsibilities and will face deductions for legal or regulatory penalties, with cumulative deductions applied for repeated offenses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The joint evaluation of credit rating agencies aims to enhance self-regulation, improve rating quality, and bolster industry credibility, thereby supporting the high-quality development of the multi-tiered bond market [2][3]. Group 1: Evaluation Purpose and Participants - The evaluation is designed to strengthen self-regulation among credit rating agencies and guide them in improving their rating quality and industry credibility [2]. - Fourteen credit rating agencies are subject to this evaluation, including notable firms such as Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. and China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. [2][3]. Group 2: Evaluation Process and Criteria - Participating agencies must submit self-evaluation materials that are accurate and complete, with a deadline set for October 22, 2025 [2][3]. - The evaluation period spans from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and will assess the performance of rating agencies based on a scoring system with a total of 100 points [3][4]. - The evaluation criteria include three main categories: Business Foundation (60 points), Market Member Evaluation (30 points), and Regulatory Self-Discipline (10 points) [3][4]. Group 3: Scoring and Classification - The Business Foundation evaluation reflects the quality of credit ratings and the operational status of the agencies, covering aspects such as rating quality and compliance management [3][4]. - Agencies can earn additional points for fulfilling social responsibilities, while penalties apply for legal or regulatory violations, with cumulative deductions for repeated offenses [4]. - Based on the evaluation results, agencies will be classified into four categories, with the top 80% scoring in the first or second category, and the bottom 20% in the third category, while severely penalized agencies will fall into the fourth category [4].

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" with a stable outlook, citing high uncertainty in public finances as the main reason for the downgrade [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - S&P's report indicates that despite the French government's submission of the 2026 budget draft, uncertainty in public finances remains high ahead of the 2027 presidential election [1]. - The suspension of pension reforms initiated in 2023 is viewed as a significant factor contributing to increased fiscal pressure [1]. - This marks the second downgrade by S&P in a year and a half, following a similar action by Fitch, reflecting a rapid decline in market confidence regarding France's fiscal outlook [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Projections - S&P forecasts that France's public debt as a percentage of GDP will rise to 121% by the end of 2028 [1]. - Under the assumption that the 2026 budget draft remains unchanged, S&P expects the government deficit as a percentage of GDP to slightly decrease to 5.3% in 2026 [1]. - The report emphasizes that significant fiscal consolidation measures are necessary to reverse the ongoing trend of rising government debt [1]. Group 3: Government Response and Market Reactions - The French Ministry of Economy and Finance acknowledged S&P's decision and reiterated the commitment to keep the 2025 deficit rate at 5.4% of GDP [2]. - Concerns are rising regarding Moody's upcoming update on France's sovereign rating, with fears that further downgrades could lead to increased borrowing costs for the country [2]. - It is projected that interest expenses could reach approximately €55 billion by 2025 if rating agencies continue to downgrade France's credit rating [2].

国际信用评级机构标准普尔17日晚发布报告，将法国长期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，评 级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。这是标普近一年半内第二次下调法国主权信用评级。 标普原定11月底公布法国主权信用评级报告，但近期法国政局变化，该机构决定提前发布报告。报告指 出，尽管法国政府本周已向议会提交2026年预算草案，但法国"公共财政的不确定性依然很高"，这可能 抑制投资和私人消费，影响经济增长，进而拖累整体经济表现。 报告认为，2025年法国公共财政赤字占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重预计将达到政府设定的5.4%目 标。但如果不额外采取有力措施削减赤字，法国财政整顿的进展将慢于预期。 法国经济与财政部长罗兰·莱斯屈尔18日在接受法国新闻广播电台采访时表示，标普下调法国主权信用 评级是"对清醒和责任的呼吁"。他强调，为增强市场和评级机构信心，政府与议会必须共同努力通过预 算案并保持财政稳定。 今年9月，另一家国际评级机构惠誉以政治动荡持续、预算案久拖未决、债务水平持续上升为由，将法 国长期外币发行人违约评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"。穆迪公司预计本月24日发布对法国的最新评级决定。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+, marking a significant blow to the country's credibility amid rising debt burdens and political instability [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - France has lost two "AA" ratings from major credit rating agencies within a month, which may compel strict investment funds to sell French bonds [1]. - The downgrade places France at the same level as Spain and Portugal, six levels above junk status, with a stable outlook [1]. Group 2: Political and Fiscal Challenges - France's minority government is struggling to pass legislation to address its growing debt, with high budget uncertainty despite the submission of the 2025 budget draft [1][4]. - Recent political instability, including the dismissal of two prime ministers over budget issues, has raised concerns about a potential public finance crisis [4]. - The current Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has made compromises to maintain his position, including agreeing to increase fiscal deficit spending and suspending pension reform plans [4][5]. Group 3: Fiscal Targets and Economic Outlook - Lecornu aims to reduce the budget deficit from 5.4% of GDP this year to 4.7% next year, while maintaining a target of below 3% by 2029 [4][5]. - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields has increased by over 85 basis points recently, indicating rising borrowing costs for France [5][6]. - S&P warned that further deterioration in France's fiscal situation or economic growth prospects could lead to additional rating downgrades [6].

Core Insights - Ghana's recent macroeconomic stability is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices, particularly gold prices [1] - The sustainability of Ghana's economic rebound is critically dependent on sustained high gold prices, presenting a significant and unstable risk factor [1] - A decline in gold prices would substantially reduce Ghana's dollar earnings from its largest export product, leading to decreased foreign exchange inflows and a potential depletion of international reserves [1] Economic Implications - A reduction in foreign exchange inflows could erode Ghana's external buffers and exert pressure on the local currency, leading to significant depreciation [1] - Currency depreciation would increase import costs, potentially triggering a sharp rebound in inflation [1] - To address the resurgence of inflation, the central bank of Ghana may need to adopt a tighter policy stance than currently anticipated by the market, possibly through interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Establishing a globally comparable RMB rating system with Chinese characteristics is crucial for overcoming the current bottlenecks in China's rating industry [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On September 30, S&P's wholly-owned subsidiary in China, S&P Global Ratings (China) Co., Ltd., received a warning letter from the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to adhere to consistency principles and proper information disclosure during its securities rating business [1] - Other rating agencies, such as Dongfang Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. and United Ratings Co., Ltd., have also faced penalties for similar violations since August [1][2] - The penalties highlight a trend where rating agencies struggle with maintaining independence and credibility due to a predominant issuer-paid model, leading to inflated ratings [3] Group 2: Consistency Principle - The consistency principle requires that ratings for the same type of objects or the same rated entity should use consistent standards and procedures, ensuring a true, objective, and fair representation of credit quality [3] - There are three dimensions to the consistency principle: vertical stability over time, horizontal comparability across entities, and transparency and repeatability of the rating process [3] - The current issuer-paid model in China has led to a lack of differentiation in ratings, with over 90% of bonds rated AA or above, contrasting sharply with the normal distribution seen in mature markets [3] Group 3: Industry Evolution - In August 2021, the People's Bank of China and other departments issued a notice encouraging credit rating agencies to explore investor-paid ratings and disclose results, aiming to improve the industry's health [4] - Since 2020, leading rating agencies have been piloting innovative rating systems to enhance industry development and align with international standards [4] - In March 2023, United Ratings launched a high-differentiation "3C rating system" for investors, while China Chengxin Credit Rating Group introduced a "QE rating system" based on default probability measurement in May 2024 [4] Group 4: Responses to Penalties - S&P Global Ratings has received two regulatory penalties since entering the Chinese market in 2018, both related to consistency principle violations, with ratings often exceeding market averages [6] - United Ratings faced penalties for using different rating standards for the same entity under its 3C rating and issuer-commissioned ratings, violating the consistency principle [6] - A representative from United Ratings clarified that the inconsistency arose from internal conflicts between new and existing business lines, rather than intentional dual standards [7] Group 5: Future Directions - The Chinese rating industry aims to establish a self-developed, market-tested, high-differentiation global RMB rating system, moving away from reliance on international methodologies [8] - The initial concept of a new rating system was to maintain a low central rating to avoid market shocks, leading to a gradual dual-track approach [8] - The development of new rating systems targeting investors is a common trend among rating agencies, indicating that the industry is in an exploratory phase regarding direction, pathways, and regulatory boundaries [8]

Group 1: Trade Performance - In September 2025, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, up from a previous growth of 4.4%[5] - Imports increased by 7.4%, compared to a prior growth of 1.3%[5] - The trade surplus for September was $90.45 billion, down from $102.33 billion in the previous month[5] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The growth in exports is attributed to market diversification, optimization of export product structure, and a rebound in demand for high-tech products driven by the global AI wave[3] - The low base effect from September 2024, where exports fell by 6.3 percentage points to 2.3%, also contributed to the current growth figures[6] - High-tech product exports saw significant increases, with growth rates of 11.48% for high-tech products, 12.63% for electromechanical products, and 24.85% for general machinery[7] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by the U.S. starting November 1, 2025, introduces uncertainty for China's trade outlook[16] - The potential economic backlash from high tariffs could negatively impact both the U.S. and Chinese economies, complicating trade relations[18] - Despite the challenges, the upcoming Canton Fair in October 2025 is expected to showcase a record participation of over 32,000 companies, indicating resilience in China's trade sector[19]