Core Insights - Ghana's sovereign credit rating was upgraded from CCC+/C to B-/B by S&P Global Ratings, marking a significant milestone in the country's recovery process after nearly three years of international debt defaults [1][2] Economic Factors - Ghana's foreign exchange reserves surged to nearly $11 billion by the end of 2025, representing about 9% of GDP, up from $6.8 billion at the end of 2024 [1] - Strong export performance, particularly in gold and cocoa, which account for over 60% of commodity exports, has positively impacted the economy, with the cedi appreciating approximately 30% against the dollar this year [1] - The new government has implemented structural reforms aimed at achieving a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP annually and a long-term plan to reduce public debt to 45% of GDP by 2034 [1] Investment Implications - The upgrade to B-/B with a stable outlook signals a significant reduction in recent default risk, boosting investor confidence and making Ghanaian assets, especially restructured new euro-denominated bonds, more attractive to global investors [2] - Lower borrowing costs are anticipated as the risk premium decreases, which should benefit both the government and the domestic private sector in future external borrowing [2] - The upgrade also acknowledges the support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Ghana's fiscal consolidation efforts under a $3 billion extended credit facility, effective until May 31, 2026 [2] Economic Growth - Ghana's economy experienced a growth rate of 6.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive growth momentum [2] Risks - Despite the positive outlook, there are still risks, including high debt servicing costs projected to account for 20% of revenue by 2028 and unresolved debt restructuring negotiations with commercial and official creditors regarding $5 billion in remaining debt [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Scope Ratings to AA- reflects growing concerns over the country's debt levels and governance issues, coinciding with ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur [1][3][4]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from its previous level to AA-, which is three levels below the highest rating [1][3]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, approaching the $40 trillion mark, leading to increased interest payment burdens due to the federal funds rate of 4%-4.25% [3]. - The downgrade is seen as a necessary response to the unsustainable debt levels and interest obligations faced by the U.S. government [3]. Group 2: Governance Crisis - The ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted over three weeks, has exacerbated the situation, with significant political divisions between the Republican and Democratic parties [4][5]. - A government that frequently shuts down struggles to maintain market trust, raising concerns among investors about potential defaults [4]. Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The downgrade of U.S. credit strength presents a strategic opportunity for China in the ongoing trade negotiations, as the U.S. may be more eager to reach an agreement to stabilize its situation [7]. - The shift in power dynamics, with the U.S. losing its traditional economic dominance, allows China to negotiate from a position of strength, potentially securing more favorable terms [7][9]. - Historical patterns indicate that credit rating adjustments can lead to market reactions, affecting U.S. debt yields and global confidence in dollar assets, which may influence the broader context of U.S.-China negotiations [9]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Dynamics - The balance of power at the negotiation table has shifted, with the U.S. no longer holding the same level of authority it once did, while China benefits from its stable economic governance and credit accumulation [11]. - The credit rating event may lead to significant changes in the negotiation process, requiring both parties to adapt their strategies to leverage the new dynamics effectively [11].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoint The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with support at 78,000 [49]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary The short - term copper price will maintain a volatile trend, and the lower support level is 78,000 [49]. 02 Multi - empty Focus - **Positive Factors** - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience, which reduced the market's bet on consecutive Fed rate cuts. The new home starts in the US in July increased significantly, and the S&P confirmed the US sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [9][11]. - China's domestic policies for stable growth are continuously being implemented, including measures to boost investment, promote consumption, and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15]. - China's demand for copper is strong. The import volume of scrap copper in July increased more than expected due to strong domestic demand from both the recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors. The power sector has high - speed growth, and the automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity, which will drive copper consumption [25][31][38]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the domestic TC quotation at a historical low, which is a strong support factor for the fundamentals [19][20]. - **Negative Factors** - The real - estate market's demand for copper is still weak. The real - estate development data from January to July shows a decline in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area, and the housing prices in different - tier cities also show a downward or narrowing - decline trend [35][37]. - The production of household appliances such as refrigerators and air - conditioners has adjusted. The production of refrigerators in July decreased month - on - month, and the production of air - conditioners in July dropped sharply month - on - month due to the end of promotion activities and inventory pressure [41][42]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply Side** - In July, China's copper ore imports increased. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded [16][17]. - The production of refined copper in July decreased slightly. Affected by the shortage of cold - material supply, some smelters reduced production. The import volume of refined copper in July was 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05% [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - The import volume of scrap copper in July was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%. The demand from domestic recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors is strong [25][26]. - The power sector has high - speed growth. The national grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, and the power grid investment from January to June increased by 14.6% year - on - year [31][33]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. The production of new - energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The total automobile sales are expected to increase in 2025, which will drive copper consumption [38][40]. - **Inventory and Price** - The inventory of copper exchanges has increased, while the domestic social inventory has decreased. As of August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14,500 tons compared with August 18 [44][45]. - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has also decreased. On August 21, the premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot was about 115 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was about - 81.01 US dollars/ton [47]. 04后市研判 The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with the lower support at 78,000 [49].

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [1] - The U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing in June alone [1] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of FY2025 has surpassed $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [1] Group 2 - The downgrade has led to a spike in bond yields, with 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% and 10-year yields rising above 4.5% [1] - The increase in U.S. borrowing costs is expected to raise global lending rates and exacerbate debt risks in emerging markets [2] - The downgrade reflects long-standing imbalances in U.S. economic governance, with political parties engaging in short-term fiscal policies [3] Group 3 - The U.S. government's reliance on tax cuts and increased spending has led to a projected $4 trillion increase in federal deficits over the next decade if the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended [3] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in Q1, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022 [3] - The downgrade serves as a reflection of the urgent need for reform in the global governance system, emphasizing the necessity for a multi-polar currency coordination mechanism [4]