Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [3] Core Views - Industrial revenue growth in China has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for industrial enterprises from January to May 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Total profits for industrial enterprises decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [5] - The engineering machinery market is experiencing weaker expectations and operating rates as it enters the off-season, with a notable decline in the proportion of agents expecting increased excavator sales [6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing sentiment due to policy effects and easing trade tensions [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past month, the machinery industry has seen a relative return of -1.0% and an absolute return of 1.2%. In the last three months, the relative return is -3.8%, while the absolute return is -3.6%. However, over the past year, the industry has outperformed with a relative return of 17.1% and an absolute return of 30.4% [4][9] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Major companies in the machinery sector are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery receiving "Buy" ratings based on their expected revenue and profit growth [20] Basic Data - The report highlights that the cumulative issuance of special bonds by local governments has been increasing, which may support infrastructure investment and, consequently, machinery demand [22]

Core Viewpoint - The supply side of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market is still in a bottoming phase, with both inventory and capacity remaining weak, but there are signs of marginal recovery on the demand side [1][3][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by weak replenishment and expansion intentions, with inventory growth for Q1 2025 at -1.63% year-on-year and stock growth at -4.46%, both showing declines compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for Q1 2025 is at 2.32, down 0.04 from 2024, marking 12 consecutive quarters of decline since mid-2022 [3]. - Expansionary capital expenditure for Q1 2025 has a year-on-year decline of 20.69%, the first negative value since 2018, indicating weak investment intentions among listed companies [3]. Industry Focus - Key industries to focus on include those with relatively tight supply and good profitability, those that have shown signs of recovery from the bottom, and those still on the left side of the turning point but entering the later stages of clearing [1][10]. - Specific industries identified for potential support to performance include metal products, broiler farming, entertainment products, and gaming, with only the entertainment products sector showing high levels of expansionary capital expenditure [1][70]. Detailed Industry Breakdown Cyclical Sector - Industries with tight supply include those with high capacity utilization and low inventory, indicating potential for profitability improvement [12]. - Industries at the bottom include construction materials, chemicals, and photovoltaic power, which are experiencing supply structure optimization [12][25]. Manufacturing Sector - Tight supply industries include cable components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, and metal products, with low expansionary capital expenditure [26][40]. - Bottomed industries include the new energy chain and military electronics, which are likely to face hard constraints on future production capacity [26][37]. Consumer Sector - Tight supply industries include broiler farming and entertainment products, with the latter showing high expansionary capital expenditure [41][54]. - Bottomed industries include pharmaceuticals and food processing, with signs of marginal improvement in capacity utilization and profitability [41][49]. TMT Sector - Tight supply industries include gaming, with low expansionary capital expenditure, indicating hard constraints on future supply [55][69]. - Industries at the bottom include electronic components and security equipment, with potential for recovery in capacity utilization and profitability [55][63].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an overall positive sentiment towards the new stock market, with an increase in activity and performance metrics for newly listed stocks [2][3][14]. Core Insights - The new stock market has seen increased activity, with 23 stocks recording positive weekly gains, representing 45.10% of newly listed stocks over the past six months, a significant increase from the previous 14.00% [2][14]. - In April, the ChiNext board saw an increase in first-day gains and opening valuations, while the main board experienced a decrease in these metrics [3][30]. - The report highlights specific stocks with notable performance, such as Honggong Technology on the ChiNext board, which had a first-day gain of 171.43% and an opening valuation of 26.23 times earnings [26][30]. Summary by Sections New Stock Market Activity - The report notes that in April, the ChiNext board's first-day gains and opening valuations increased, while the main board's first-day gains and valuations decreased [3][30]. - The report details that the main board's new stocks had an average first-day gain of 252.76% in April, down from 289.09% in March [38]. Key Newly Listed Stocks - The report lists key newly listed stocks since January 2023, including: - Xidian Co., Ltd. (semiconductor probe equipment) - Shengke Nano (third-party semiconductor testing laboratory) - Hongjing Optoelectronics (sports cameras and automotive optical lenses) [48][50]. Upcoming and Approved New Stocks - As of April 18, 2025, 18 companies have received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including: - Weigao Blood Purification (medical blood purification products) - Yitang Co., Ltd. (dry glue removal and rapid heat treatment equipment) [46][47]. - The report also mentions that there are currently no newly issued stocks awaiting listing [47]. Performance Metrics - The report provides various performance metrics, including: - The ChiNext board's first-day price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreased to 14.18 times in April from 17.56 times in March [30]. - The main board's first-day P/E ratio was 15.13 times in April, down from 18.17 times in March [38]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the near-term newly listed stock index is at a discount compared to the ChiNext board, with a ratio of 0.86, down from 0.90 [43]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in the ChiNext board's valuation metrics, contrasting with the downward trend in the main board's metrics [43].