金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fuchun Co., Ltd. (300299) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025 to be between -78 million and -48 million yuan, an improvement from the previous year's loss of -136.88 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 is estimated to be between -79.92 million and -49.92 million yuan, compared to -138.72 million yuan in the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - Zhongke Tongda's stock price decreased by 0.76% on January 29, with a trading volume of 70.19 million yuan [1] - The financing buy-in amount for Zhongke Tongda on the same day was 4.64 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 3.91 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 726,100 yuan [1] - As of January 29, the total financing and securities lending balance for Zhongke Tongda was 110 million yuan, accounting for 4.53% of its circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Zhongke Tongda increased by 12.11% to 7,536, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 10.80% to 15,442 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhongke Tongda reported an operating income of 108 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -6.87 million yuan, a decrease of 490.93% [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Zhongke Tongda has distributed a total of 11.64 million yuan in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Zhongke Tongda included Dazheng Zhongzheng 360 Internet + Index A, which increased its holdings by 132,600 shares to 1.075 million shares [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Puling Software has shown mixed financial performance, with a slight increase in revenue but a significant drop in net profit [2] - As of January 29, Puling Software's stock price increased by 0.63%, with a trading volume of 245 million yuan, and a net financing buy of -169,000 yuan [1] - The company's financing balance reached 290 million yuan, accounting for 5.83% of its market capitalization, indicating a high level of financing activity [1] Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Puling Software reported a revenue of 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.17% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.48 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 90.07% [2] - Puling Software has distributed a total of 162 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 93.48 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1 - Taxfriend Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 0.15% on January 29, with a trading volume of 561 million yuan [1] - The company had a net financing purchase of 272,300 yuan on the same day, with a total financing and securities balance of 175 million yuan [1] - The financing balance of Taxfriend Co., Ltd. is 174 million yuan, accounting for 0.56% of its circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, Taxfriend Co., Ltd. had 14,400 shareholders, an increase of 30.14% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 23.16% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.426 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.10%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.74% to 110 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 366 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 244 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]

Core Insights - The Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS) industry in China is experiencing robust growth, integrating AI, industrial internet, and digital twin technologies to drive intelligent scheduling and real-time optimization, becoming a key driver for the smart upgrade of manufacturing [1][6] - The market size of the APS industry in China is projected to reach approximately 2.511 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.45% [1][6] Industry Overview - APS is a software system driven by algorithms, focusing on "limited resources + multiple constraints," integrating demand forecasting, material availability, capacity, personnel, tooling, shift calendars, and order priorities into a unified model [2] - Unlike traditional MRP/ERP systems, APS outputs executable process-level Gantt charts, achieving overall optimization across multiple objectives such as delivery time, changeover, inventory, and cost [2] Market Size - The APS industry in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of approximately 2.511 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 23.45% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] Key Companies - Major players in the APS industry include Dingjie Zhizhi, Saiyi Information, Baoxin Software, and Hand Information, each leveraging unique strategies and technologies to cater to the evolving market demands [2][7][8][10] - Dingjie Zhizhi reported a revenue of 1.614 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.63% [8] - Saiyi Information's revenue for the same period was 1.501 billion yuan, showing a decline of 11.96% year-on-year [10] Industry Development Trends 1. The deep integration of AI and industrial large models will become the core driving force for technological innovation in the industry, transforming AI from an auxiliary function to the decision-making center of APS [11] 2. The market is rapidly evolving from "production scheduling" to "integrated supply chain planning," with a focus on providing comprehensive solutions that cover demand forecasting and multi-factory network optimization [12] 3. Cloud-based and ecological deployment will become mainstream, promoting the adoption of APS among small and medium-sized enterprises and reshaping business models towards subscription services and ecosystem collaboration [13]

Core Insights - Apple reported strong financial results for Q1 FY2026, with revenue and profit significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by robust iPhone demand and a rebound in Greater China sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Apple achieved revenue of $143.76 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of $42.10 billion, up 15.9% [2]. - Diluted earnings per share reached $2.84, reflecting an 18.3% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s overall gross margin improved to 48.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [4]. iPhone and Market Performance - iPhone revenue surged to $85.27 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, accounting for 59.3% of total revenue [3]. - The Greater China region showed remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 38% to $25.53 billion, significantly surpassing market expectations [3]. - The iPhone 17 series upgrades in camera functionality and performance contributed to a record number of upgrades from older models [3]. Services and Cash Flow - The services segment generated revenue of $30.01 billion, with a gross margin of 76.5%, significantly higher than the hardware segment's 39.4% [3]. - Operating cash flow for the quarter reached $53.93 billion, a nearly 80% year-over-year increase [4]. - Apple returned nearly $32 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends [4]. Hardware Business Challenges - Despite strong overall performance, there are concerns regarding potential pressure on hardware profit margins due to inflation and ongoing memory chip shortages [5]. - Mac revenue was $8.39 billion, slightly below expectations, while iPad sales reached $8.6 billion, exceeding market forecasts [5]. - Wearables, home, and accessories revenue fell short of expectations, impacted by supply constraints on AirPods Pro 3 [5]. Strategic Developments - Apple confirmed the completion of its acquisition of Israeli AI startup Q.ai, although the transaction amount was not disclosed [6]. - Q.ai focuses on audio-related technology and was founded by Aviad Maizels, who previously sold another company to Apple [7].

【导读】黄金、白银史诗级巨震，黄金单日狂震500美元，盘中大跳水，收盘大逆转；原油价格走高 美东时间1月29日（周四），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，科技股下挫拖累纳指走低，微软财报引得市 场重新审视与人工智能相关的巨额支出。贵金属价格大幅波动，布伦特原油期货自去年7月份以来首次 收于每桶70美元上方。 美股三大股指走势震荡 指数方面，道指跌55.96点，跌幅为0.11%，报49071.56点；纳指跌172.33点，跌幅为0.72%，报23685.12 点；标普500指数跌9.02点，跌幅为0.13%，报6969.01点。 美联储在最新利率决议中宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间3.50%～3.75%不变，中止此前连续三次降 息。声明上调对经济活动评估，称其"稳健"扩张，指出失业率有企稳迹象，但通胀"略显偏高"。 市场随即下调降息预期：投资者将4月再次降息的概率降至26%，并认为6月是下一次可能的窗口。 富国银行投资研究所全球股票及实物资产主管Sameer Samana表示："美联储声明符合预期，市场常因意 外波动。期待盈利和经济数据推动下一波上涨，不过对2026年中期选举相关波动也不会意外。" 特朗普表示，他将在下周 ...

微软公司在28日盘后发布的数据显示，该公司在2025年第四季度营业收入和每股盈利超出预期，但由于该季度云服务业务增长放缓并预期2026年一季度经 营利润率表现疲软，微软公司股价29日大幅下跌9.99%，并打压市场人气。 美国Sage顾问服务公司负责研究的执行董事罗伯•威廉姆斯（Rob Williams）表示，人工智能已经变得像一把双刃剑。人工智能对增长和支出带来贡献，并 让估值处于当前的水平。现在，这方面有更多的疑问，因而正变得更难继续带来利好。 转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约1月29日电（记者刘亚南）由于微软等权重科技股大幅下跌拖累，纽约股市三大股指29日低开低走，早盘显著走低，随后跌幅收窄，尾盘有 所拉升，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨55.96点，收于49071.56点，涨幅为0.11%；标准普尔500种股票指数下跌9.02点，收于6969.01点， 跌幅为0.13%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌172.33点，收于23685.12点，跌幅为0.72%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块七涨四跌。通信服务板块和房地产板块分别以2.92%和1.42%的涨幅领涨， ...

格隆汇1月30日｜微软公司股价周四遭遇抛售，跌近10%报433.5美元，市值大减3570亿美元，单日缩水 金额在股市史上高居第二。财报显示，微软人工智能(AI)支出创纪录，而核心的云业务部门增长放缓。 历史上唯一一次市值单日缩水金额比这更大的，是英伟达去年在DeepSeek推出低成本AI模型后创下的 5930亿美元纪录。数据显示，微软市值变动金额超过了逾90%的标普500指数成分股的市值本身。其他 一些科技股也感受到了这股寒气。Alphabet和英伟达市值周四均一度蒸发超过1000亿美元。 ...