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Algoma Steel (ASTL) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-03-14 01:04
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 60.3 million for Q4 2024, with cash used in operating activities amounting to CAD 76.9 million [14] - Total shipments for Q4 2024 reached 549,000 tons, a 6.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year, while net sales realization averaged CAD 976 per ton, down from CAD 1,079 per ton in the prior year [15] - For the full year 2024, the company shipped 2 million net tons, down from 2.1 million net tons in the previous year, with net sales realizations averaging CAD 1,107 per ton, a decrease of 5.6% [18] - Steel revenue for Q4 2024 was CAD 536 million, a decline of 3.8% year-over-year, while the cost per ton of steel products sold averaged CAD 1,032, similar to the prior year [16][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Plate shipments for Q4 2024 reached approximately 82,000 tons, up from 73,000 tons in Q3 2024, with expectations for Q1 2025 plate production to be directionally higher [5] - The company is dynamically adjusting its product mix between plate and coil products based on market conditions and contractual obligations, focusing on higher-margin products [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the Canadian market is currently oversupplied with coil and undersupplied with plate, which may lead to price increases for plate products [37] - The implementation of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports has introduced uncertainty into the North American steel market, but the company expects a rational dialogue to restore normal trade [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on completing its electric arc furnace (EAF) project, with first steel production expected in April 2025, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and cost structure [8][25] - The transition to EAF steelmaking is seen as a long-term strategy to strengthen the company's position in the market and improve its ability to navigate uncertainties [11][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenging market conditions due to tariff uncertainty, soft demand, and other macroeconomic factors affecting customer behavior [4] - Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about the upcoming EAF operations and the potential for increased production and market share in the plate segment [25][72] Other Important Information - The cumulative investment for the EAF project was CAD 740 million as of December 31, 2024, with expectations to complete the project within 5% of the upper budget range [10] - The company expects to release approximately CAD 100 million of working capital from March 2024 to March 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the Blast Furnace outage duration and costs - The outage lasted a couple of days to a week due to extreme weather conditions, with no significant costs involved [31][32] Question: Impact of tariffs on EBITDA generation - The company indicated that with current pricing, it could break even or generate a small profit despite the 25% tariff on shipments to the US [34][35] Question: Canadian sheet prices and potential oversupply - The Canadian market is currently oversupplied with coil and undersupplied with plate, which may lead to price increases for plate products [37] Question: Mitigation strategies in response to tariffs - The company is focused on cost reduction initiatives and transitioning to EAF production as a primary strategy to lower costs [45][46] Question: Expected insurance payout and timing - The company expects around CAD 100 million from insurance, with CAD 20 to CAD 25 million anticipated in the next month [52][54] Question: Volume expectations for 2025 - The company anticipates total shipments for the year to be between 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons, with a focus on increasing plate production [98]
CSN(SID) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-03-13 19:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported the strongest quarter of the year with significant EBITDA growth and cost control, achieving nearly BRL 25 billion in cash, the highest in its history [6][7] - The leverage ratio was impacted by exchange rate variations, with an adjusted leverage closer to 3.2 times without these effects [7][25] - EBITDA for Q4 2024 increased by more than BRL 1 billion compared to the previous quarter, driven by strong performance in mining, cement, and steel [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In mining, the company achieved production guidance with a 35% price increase compared to the previous quarter, resulting in an EBITDA margin above 50% [9][35] - Steel sales increased by 10% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin reaching 11%, marking the first time it surpassed double digits in the year [10][32] - Cement segment achieved a record EBITDA margin of 33%, the highest since acquiring Lafarge Holcim, despite typical seasonal challenges [12][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a favorable trend in steel consumption, with a 10% increase in sales compared to the same period last year, indicating strong market demand [10][29] - The logistics segment experienced a drop in invoicing and EBITDA due to seasonal factors, but overall performance improved with higher cargo volumes throughout the year [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on deleveraging and capital recycling, with significant actions including the sale of a stake in CMIN to enhance cash reserves [13][18] - Future CapEx will prioritize growth projects, particularly in mining and steel, with over 60% of CapEx allocated to priority projects in 2025 [51][83] - The company is exploring organic growth opportunities in cement and has plans for several greenfield projects [54][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about operational efficiency and market conditions, expecting continued growth in EBITDA for 2025 [94] - The company is committed to maintaining a flexible investment strategy while focusing on deleveraging and operational excellence [96][100] - Management acknowledged challenges from international competition and trade policies but remains confident in the company's competitive position [60][82] Other Important Information - The company decided not to distribute dividends in Q1 2025 to reinforce its commitment to deleveraging [18][116] - The company has made significant progress in ESG initiatives, achieving a 63% reduction in lost days and a 7% reduction in CO2 emissions [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overview of expansion projects in mining and cement - Management highlighted that over 60% of CapEx in 2025 will focus on priority projects, with P15 being a significant priority expected to start operations by the end of 2027 [51][52] Question: Update on steel production and pricing strategy - Management indicated that the steel segment is expected to maintain a two-digit EBITDA margin, with price adjustments anticipated in the first quarter [77][78] Question: Strategic plan amidst trade wars and investment flexibility - Management confirmed that while the focus remains on mining and steel, there is flexibility in postponing less critical projects depending on market conditions [82][83] Question: Antidumping measures and market dynamics - Management discussed ongoing efforts to address antidumping issues and the competitive landscape in the Brazilian market, emphasizing the need for protective measures against unfair imports [60][61] Question: Future of cement business and IPO plans - Management confirmed readiness for a cement IPO but noted challenges due to market conditions, indicating a desire to proceed when favorable [127]
CSN(SID) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-03-13 17:33
Financial Performance & Strategy - CSN achieved its best quarter of the year in 4Q24, driven by price improvements and cost control, with a historic cash record of R$24.9 billion[2] - The company is committed to deleveraging, despite leverage being impacted by exchange rate variation[2, 3] - CSN decided not to distribute dividends in May 2025 due to the year's results and commitment to financial discipline[3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded 50%[2] - Capital expenditures increased by 29.2% from 4Q23 to 4Q24, reaching R$2.058 billion in 4Q24, and by 22.2% from 2023 to 2024, totaling R$5.525 billion in 2024[9] - Net debt increased, influenced by exchange rate variations, reaching R$35.704 billion in 4Q24[21] Segment Performance - Mining: Realized price increase in 4Q24 boosted results, with adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 50%[2] - Steel: Sales volume increased by 10% in 4Q24 compared to 4Q23, marking the best result since 2Q21[2], with a 9.2% growth in sales pace in 2024[30] - Cement: Reached a new level of profitability in 4Q24 with a 32.8% EBITDA margin[2] - Logistics: Adjusted EBITDA margin was 40.3%[2] ESG Performance - CSN invested R$66 million in social responsibility[73] - Environmental investments reached a record of R$1.2 billion in 2024 (CAPEX + OPEX)[77]
中国钢铁行业供给侧改革 2.0:铁矿石何去何从
2025-03-10 03:11
Summary of the Conference Call on Global Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The focus is on the **steel industry in China** and its implications for **iron ore demand** globally. The discussion revolves around the anticipated **Supply Side Reform 2.0** in China, which is expected to lead to a reduction in steel production and exports from China. Key Points and Arguments Supply Side Reform 2.0 - Supply side reform 2.0 is likely to result in a **5% supply curtailment** in steel production in 2025, leading to a gradual rebalancing of the steel market, which should support **average selling price (ASP) uplift** and margin improvement [2][41] - A reduction of **50 million tonnes** in steel production in China could lead to a decline in steel exports by the same amount, which would be beneficial for steel margins outside of China [2][10] Impact on Iron Ore Demand - The impact of a shift in steel production from China to other countries on iron ore demand is estimated to be around **15 million tonnes**, which is approximately **1% of the global seaborne iron ore market** [3][20] - Steel production outside of China is less iron ore intensive, with **66%** of steel production globally using iron ore compared to **85%** in China [3][18] Correlation Between Iron Ore Prices and Steel Margins - In the short term, iron ore prices are more correlated with **steel producer margins** than with steel production rates. If production cuts in China lead to higher margins globally, this could support iron ore prices [4][26] - The premium for higher-grade iron ore is also expected to rise as steel producer margins increase, potentially offsetting any small declines in base iron ore prices [4][33] Risks from Simandou - The **Simandou project** poses a significant risk to global iron ore prices, with an expected capacity addition of **120 million tonnes** over the next few years, which represents a **7% increase** in the global seaborne iron ore market [5][39] Inventory Levels - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have remained steady at around **150 million tonnes**, while steel mill inventories are at approximately **20 days of use**. Overall, iron ore inventories in China are estimated to be around **60 days**, compared to a **15-year average** of **51 days** [43][46] Government Policy Changes - The Chinese government has shifted its stance on steel production, moving from avoiding "rat-race style competition" to actively rectifying it, indicating a more aggressive approach to supply reform [40][41] Conclusion on Iron Ore Prices - The conclusion drawn is that significant declines in iron ore prices are only likely under specific circumstances related to a decline in steel demand, both in China and globally. However, even in such scenarios, iron ore prices may have been due for a decline regardless of the supply side reform [11][39] Additional Important Insights - The **steel industry** is considered a pillar of the Chinese economy, and the government is focused on optimizing the structure and improving the quality of production [40][41] - The anticipated changes in policy and production levels are expected to have a long-term impact on the dynamics of the steel and iron ore markets, with implications for global pricing and production strategies [39][41]
Metallus(MTUS) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-02-28 17:10
Company Overview - Metallus Inc was renamed in February 2024, formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation[7] - The company reported net sales of $1.1 billion in 2024[7] - The company's annual melt capacity is approximately 1.2 million tons with a ship capacity of approximately 0.9 million tons[7] Financial Performance and Outlook - In Q4 2024, net sales were $240.5 million with a net loss of $21.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 million[20] - The company's total liquidity was $458.6 million at the end of 2024[20] - Capital expenditures are planned to be approximately $125 million in 2025, including approximately $90 million funded by the U S government[20] Market and Strategy - The industrial sector accounts for 40% of shipment tons and 36% of net sales, while the automotive sector accounts for 45% of shipment tons and 42% of net sales in 2024[16] - The company aims to grow A&D product sales to over $250 million in 2026, which is more than double the 2023 sales level[63] - From 2022 through 2024, the company repurchased 6.7 million shares for $122.2 million, with $102.8 million available for repurchase at the end of December 2024[71] Environmental Goals - The company is targeting a 40% absolute reduction in combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 2030, compared with a 2018 baseline[54]
Cliffs(CLF) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-25 22:37
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $81 million, primarily due to weaker automotive demand and lagged pricing [33] - Total shipments in Q4 were 3.8 million tons, lower than Q3 due to the idling of the C6 furnace and seasonally weaker demand [37] - Q4 price realization was $976 per net ton, a decrease of $70 per net ton from the previous quarter, influenced by the inclusion of Stelco and its lower price mix [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct shipments to the automotive sector in Q4 were the lowest since the pandemic, reflecting a significant impact from weak demand [33] - The company expects to improve shipment levels above 4 million tons in Q1 2025 due to better demand and full utilization of Stelco [37] - The inclusion of Stelco is expected to reduce average costs by an additional $40 per net ton in 2025 [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for steel in 2024 was the weakest since 2010, with significant declines in automotive and construction sectors [8] - The company noted a significant uptick in demand for automotive products as 2025 begins, indicating a recovery in market share [23] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a price increase of at least $10 per ton compared to Q4 2024 due to increased automotive shipments [101] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging tariffs to strengthen domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign steel imports [11][12] - The acquisition of Stelco is seen as a strategic move to enhance operational efficiency and cost structure [16][18] - The company aims to achieve $120 million in synergies from the Stelco acquisition by the end of 2025, with a strong focus on maximizing value from the combination [18][145] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2025, citing improvements in order books and rising steel prices as positive indicators [6][23] - The company is prepared for the implementation of tariffs, which are expected to bolster domestic demand and reduce competition from foreign producers [10][109] - Management emphasized a commitment to debt reduction and maintaining financial flexibility despite current leverage levels [41][132] Other Important Information - The company reported a total reportable incident rate of 0.9% for 2024, highlighting a strong safety record [26] - The company has $3 billion in liquidity and plans to use free cash flow for debt reduction [40][132] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be $700 million, down from $800 million in 2024 [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on evolving tariff environment and implications for Stelco - Management stated that tariffs are necessary and will benefit the overall business, with minimal negative impact on Stelco due to its Canadian operations [54][55] Question: Clarification on reporting tariffs in adjusted EBITDA - Management confirmed that results will be reported as they are, without excluding tariffs from adjusted EBITDA [58][59] Question: Volume cadence and cost guidance for 2025 - Management indicated that only 30% to 35% of volumes will be under fixed pricing, with cost reductions expected to materialize more in the latter half of the year [76][78] Question: Update on capital expenditures and project timelines - Management outlined a clear CapEx plan for 2025, with specific allocations for legacy operations and ongoing projects [88][90] Question: Conditions for potential restart of C6 furnace - Management stated that the C6 furnace remains indefinitely idle with no current plans for a restart [141] Question: Synergies from Stelco acquisition - Management expressed confidence in achieving and potentially exceeding the $120 million synergy target from the Stelco acquisition [145] Question: Working capital expectations for Q1 - Management indicated that working capital build in Q4 was to prepare for improved demand in 2025, with benefits expected in subsequent quarters [114][115] Question: Possibility of equity issuance - Management confirmed there are no plans for equity issuance, focusing instead on debt reduction [128][132]
Cliffs(CLF) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-25 17:07
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $81 million, primarily due to weaker automotive demand and lagged pricing [33] - Total shipments in Q4 were 3.8 million tons, lower than Q3 due to idling of the C6 furnace and seasonally weaker demand [37] - Q4 price realization was $976 per net ton, a decrease of $70 per net ton from the previous quarter, influenced by the inclusion of Stelco and its lower price mix [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct shipments to the automotive sector in Q4 were the lowest since the pandemic, reflecting a significant impact from weak demand [33] - The company expects to improve shipment levels above 4 million tons in Q1 2025 due to better demand and full utilization of Stelco [37] - The inclusion of Stelco helped reduce weighted average unit costs by approximately $15 per net ton compared to the prior quarter [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for steel in 2024 was the weakest since 2010, with significant declines in automotive demand and construction activity [8] - The company noted a significant uptick in demand for automotive steel as 2025 begins, with improved volumes from both existing and new programs [23] - The company is experiencing a tightening scrap market, with prime scrap prices increasing by $70 per gross ton in just two months [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging tariffs to strengthen domestic production and protect American manufacturing [11][12] - The acquisition of Stelco is expected to yield $120 million in synergies, with many already in motion [18][145] - The company aims to maintain a target net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5 times and will use free cash flow for debt reduction [41][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2025, citing a recovering order book and rising steel prices [6][34] - The company anticipates that the fourth quarter of 2024 was the trough in profitability, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 [35] - Management highlighted the importance of domestic manufacturing and the positive impact of tariffs on the steel industry [10][14] Other Important Information - The company reported a total reportable incident rate of 0.9% for 2024, indicating a strong safety record [26] - The company has $3 billion in liquidity and plans to focus on debt reduction following the acquisition of Stelco [40][132] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be $700 million, down from $800 million in 2024 [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on evolving tariff environment and implications for Stelco - Management stated that tariffs are necessary and will benefit the overall business, with minimal negative impact on Stelco [54][55] Question: Mechanics of reporting tariffs in adjusted EBITDA - Management confirmed that results will be reported as they are, without excluding tariffs from adjusted EBITDA [58][59] Question: Volume cadence and cost guidance for 2025 - Management indicated that only 30% to 35% of volumes will be under fixed pricing, with a $40 per ton reduction in costs expected for the full year [76][78] Question: Capital expenditures and project timelines - Management outlined a clear CapEx plan for 2025, with $500 million for legacy operations and $100 million for Stelco [88][89] Question: Working capital expectations for Q1 - Management expects working capital to be relatively neutral in Q1, with benefits seen in subsequent quarters [124][115] Question: Pricing expectations for automotive steel in 2025 - Management indicated that automotive prices may slightly decrease but are not expected to drop significantly compared to competitors [126] Question: Possibility of equity issuance - Management confirmed there are no plans for equity issuance, focusing instead on debt reduction [128][132] Question: Conditions for restarting the C6 furnace - Management stated that the C6 furnace remains indefinitely idle with no current plans for a restart [141] Question: Synergies from Stelco acquisition - Management expressed confidence in exceeding the $120 million synergy target, with many initiatives already underway [144][145] Question: Status of the Zanesville electrical steel line - Management confirmed that the electrical steel line is ramping up and they are well-positioned in the market [150][153]
Olympic Steel(ZEUS) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-21 18:13
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for 2024 were $1.9 billion, with net income at $23 million and adjusted EBITDA of $72.5 million, reflecting the company's ability to deliver profitable results despite a challenging environment [11][12][13] - For Q4 2024, net income totaled $3.9 million compared to $7.4 million in Q4 2023, with adjusted EBITDA at $14.5 million, down from $16.7 million year-over-year but up from $13 million in Q3 2024 [32][33] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The carbon segment maintained shipping volumes despite lower OEM demand, achieving $7.2 million in EBITDA for Q4 2024, supported by a 17% growth in galvanized participation [25] - The pipe and tube segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 million, focusing on fabricated product growth [26] - The Specialty Metals segment contributed $4 million of EBITDA, with strong market share gains in stainless and aluminum [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully navigated a difficult year for the metals industry, maintaining shipping volumes within 1% of 2023 levels, outperforming industry shipment levels [10] - The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing was below 50 for eleven of the twelve months in 2024, indicating a challenging demand environment [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on diversification and growth through strategic investments in automation and capacity expansion, with significant projects expected to become operational in 2025 or early 2026 [14][29] - The acquisition of Metalworks is part of the company's strategy to enhance its position in manufactured metal products and is expected to be accretive [15][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook for the metals industry, emphasizing the importance of remaining nimble and adaptive to market dynamics [21][22] - The company plans to continue investing in automation, product diversity, and quality solutions for customers [22] Other Important Information - The board approved a 7% increase in the quarterly dividend, raising it from $0.15 to $0.16 per share, marking the fourth dividend increase since 2022 [20][37] - The company ended Q4 2024 with total debt of approximately $272 million, an increase due to the Metalworks acquisition [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the increase in gross profit per ton in the carbon flat segment? - Management attributed the increase to the expansion of end-use metal products and a concerted effort in growing the fabrication business, which contributed positively to margins [44][47][48] Question: What are the expectations for the pipe and tube segment moving into Q1? - Management indicated that the first quarter is expected to be traditional, with opportunities for recovery due to new customers acquired at the end of 2024 [50] Question: How will the tariffs affect profitability and M&A valuations? - Management noted that the tariffs could impact profitability in Q1 and that they anticipate more activity in the M&A market as conditions improve in the back half of 2025 [84][86] Question: What is the outlook for capital expenditures and margins? - Management expects capital expenditures to increase in 2025, with a positive impact on margins anticipated in 2026 as new projects come online [90] Question: What contributed to the decrease in selling and general expenses? - The decrease was primarily due to $1.8 million less in variable incentive expenses tied to profitability, reflecting the lower performance in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [92]
Cliffs(CLF) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-11-05 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $124 million on shipments of 3.8 million tons during Q3, impacted by weaker steel demand and pricing [11] - Average selling prices fell by $80 per ton, and shipments decreased by 150,000 tons compared to the prior quarter [12] - Unit costs were reduced by over $40 per ton, exceeding previous guidance [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive segment experienced the lowest build rates since the semiconductor shortage, with only 3.75 million units built in Q3, leading to decreased shipments and margins [11] - The non-automotive business also faced continued weakness in demand and pricing across flat rolled and plate products [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American automotive build expectations for the year were revised down to approximately 15.5 million units, about 1 million less than previous estimates [11] - The company temporarily idled one blast furnace, reducing annual capacity by about 1.5 million net tons, due to reduced order activity [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Stelco is expected to enhance the overall EBITDA margin and improve the cost structure, allowing the company to better serve non-automotive markets [7][10] - The company plans to prioritize debt repayment over share repurchases following the acquisition of Stelco [15] - Strategic projects at Middletown, Butler, and Weirton are progressing well, with Phase 1 funding approvals received [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for a strong 2025, citing factors such as falling interest rates, election certainty, and manufacturing onshoring [20] - The current demand weakness is attributed to high interest rates affecting consumer purchasing decisions [67][70] - Management anticipates a recovery in demand as economic conditions improve and trade protections are potentially strengthened [94] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant cost savings, with quarterly SG&A of $112 million and capital spending of $151 million remaining below historical averages [13] - The company expects to generate $120 million in cost synergies within the first year post-Stelco acquisition [10][103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Q4 volume price and cost expectations - Management anticipates a strong Q1 with volumes returning to normal by the first half of next year, driven by improved customer order activity [25] Question: CapEx guidance for 2025 - The company has reduced CapEx guidance to $600 million for 2025, reflecting lower needs across the footprint and updated estimates for strategic projects [14][36] Question: Cost savings potential heading into Q4 - While significant cost savings were achieved in Q3, similar reductions are not expected in Q4 due to the idling of the Cleveland 6 blast furnace [46] Question: Current contracting cycle and pricing - Pricing for the October contracts is expected to be stable, with some flexibility required to avoid price dumping from foreign competitors [48] Question: Impact of high interest rates on demand - High interest rates are significantly affecting consumer purchasing decisions, leading to reduced demand in both automotive and housing markets [67][70] Question: Synergies from Stelco acquisition - The company is confident in achieving $120 million in synergies within the first year, with potential for higher estimates in future calls [103][106]