02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the alumina market is experiencing price fluctuations, with the main contract for alumina futures showing a decline due to various market pressures [1][2] - As of December 19, the main alumina futures contract (2601) closed at 2500 yuan, down 72 yuan or 2.8%, with a total trading volume of 450,396 contracts, a decrease of 102,839 contracts or 18.59% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic spot prices for alumina have also decreased, with prices in different regions showing slight declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Group 2 - On a macroeconomic level, the weak inflation data from the US has led to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which initially boosted market sentiment and metal demand [2] - However, concerns over the accuracy of the data due to potential government shutdowns have created uncertainty, contributing to a stronger dollar index and increased short pressure on alumina futures [2] - Despite some production cuts from alumina plants, the overall supply remains excessive, with stable shipments from bauxite mines in Guinea and Australia, which are expected to support future bauxite arrivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a mixed performance due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices supported by high costs and limited supply, while demand remains inconsistent [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,235 CNY, up 115 CNY, with a trading volume of 4,335 lots, a decrease of 297 lots, and an open interest of 17,216 lots, an increase of 26 lots [1]. - The average price for various casting aluminum alloys has increased by 100 CNY, with A356.2 at 23,200 CNY/ton, A380 at 22,800 CNY/ton, ADC12 at 21,600 CNY/ton, ZL102 at 22,600 CNY/ton, and ZLD104 at 22,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in inflation pressure, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in November, below the expected 3.1%, which has improved market sentiment [1]. - Despite the positive sentiment, the strong U.S. dollar has countered some of the bullish effects, leading to price fluctuations in the casting aluminum market [1]. - The casting aluminum supply and demand are both experiencing reductions, with high aluminum alloy prices and limited production capacity due to losses in the smelting sector [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for casting aluminum is inconsistent, with some support from the automotive sector, but overall market activity remains subdued due to delivery pressures [2]. - Sellers are reluctant to lower prices, which further suppresses the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish stocks, affecting overall market activity [2]. - The price performance of casting aluminum is primarily supported by high costs of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in the future [3].

国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约早盘横盘震荡，午后强势拉涨；开盘价报21965元/吨，盘中最高 22240元/吨，最低21910元/吨，昨日结算21990元/吨，尾盘收至22185元/吨，涨195元，涨幅0.89%；沪 铝主力月2602合约全天成交量225615手增加37171手，持仓量315093手增加20928手。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝震荡上行，LME三个月北京时间14：54报于2925美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨8美元/吨，涨幅0.27%。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，因已达产能上限，供应难有显著增量。需求端，进入 消费淡季，下游消费整体趋弱，本周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.3个百分点至 61.5%，延续淡季偏弱运行态势。受淡季氛围浓厚及铝价高企影响，短期内开工率维持低位震荡。不 过，下游年底赶工态势明显，汽车、电子等行业消费有韧性，且铝锭社库处于低位。截至12月18日，中 国主要市场电解铝库存为56.1万吨，较本周一减少1.6万吨，铝价底部支撑仍存。但后市预期不佳，叠加 年底回笼资金需求，市场压力增大，出现踩踏甩卖现象。不过，周末前下游补货节奏稳定、采购力 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月16日伦铝最新库存量报519600公吨，较上个交易日持平。 长江铝业网讯：12月16日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报21630元/吨，跌80元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报21520元/吨，跌60元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部最新数据显示，11月美国非农就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.6%，且新 增岗位主要集中在医疗保健等非周期性行业。行业分析师认为，报告内部分化，显示经济周期性动能仍 有限，市场预计美联储短期内或对进一步降息持谨慎态度。不过，美元指数破位下跌0.11%至98.15附 近，触及两个月新低，对以美元计价的铝金属商品形成支撑。国内方面，12月10日至11日召开的中央经 济工作会议备受关注。会议明确将扩大内需列为明年首要任务，提振了市场情绪，多头士气回升，对铝 价构成利好。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指破位下挫至两个月新低，隔夜伦铝一枝独秀涨0.26%；沪铝供应平稳、 铝锭社库持续去化提供支撑，新能源消费有韧性、下游刚需成交，但现货贴水压制，今现铝或难大涨。 【铝期货市场】：美股全线下挫但美指走软提供支撑，隔夜伦铝一枝独秀，盘中维持偏强运行姿态，最 新收盘报价 ...

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝冲高回落，LME三个月北京时间14：56报于2883美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨0.5美元/吨，涨幅0.02%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约强势反弹震荡；开盘价报21845元/吨，盘中最高22020元/吨，最低 21810元/吨，昨日结算21795元/吨，尾盘收至21915元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.55%；沪铝主力月2602合约 全天成交量184098手减少57826手，持仓量293990手增加5157手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格21730-21770元/吨，涨120元，贴水125-贴水85，跌5元； 广东现货21625-21675元/吨，涨130元，贴水230-贴水180，涨5元；上海地区21720-21760元/吨，涨120 元，贴水135-贴水95，跌5元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布最新数据，11月美国非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于预期的5万人；但 失业率同步升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。这一数据变化增加了美联储未来降息的可能性，为铝价 提供了一定支撑。此外，今日美国科技股回涨，国内A股三大指数集体反弹，新能源板块表现亮眼，获 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The aluminum oxide market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract for January 2601 rising to 2558 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan or 0.95% [1] - The total trading volume for 12 contracts was 372,105 lots, a decrease of 488,798 lots or 30.16% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,394 tons to 24.6 million tons, providing some support for aluminum oxide prices [3] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - In South China, aluminum oxide prices remained stable at 2810-2860 yuan per ton, while East China saw a slight decrease of 10 yuan to 2730-2770 yuan per ton [1] - Southwest China reported prices between 2820-2860 yuan per ton, down by 5 yuan, and Northwest China prices remained unchanged at 2950-2990 yuan per ton [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's bauxite shipments have increased, weakening cost support for aluminum oxide [3] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity reached 11,462 million tons, with operational capacity at 9,590 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons [3] - The overall market sentiment remains weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand from downstream purchasing, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere [3] Group 4: Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm employment growth exceeded expectations in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, influencing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference in China emphasized expanding domestic demand as a primary task for the coming year, boosting market sentiment and supporting futures markets [2]

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美11月就业报告出炉后市场情绪转乐观，隔夜伦铝续涨0.82%；沪铝供需偏 稳，市场预期明年上半年供需偏紧，下方支撑较强，今现铝或上涨。 基本面看，沪铝供需偏稳，电解铝运行产能变化有限，铝水供应比例增幅不大，受发运影响供应未明显 增加，且市场预期明年上半年供需偏紧，下方支撑较强。需求端处于消费淡季，表现趋弱但下行幅度有 限，消费仍具有韧性。地产行业虽仍在探底，但逆周期增量政策调节下，其对铝需求的拖累将减弱；新 能源汽车、光伏等新动能领域增速或放缓，不过出口及电网、储能投资领域仍可期。现货市场，持货商 年末变现出货积极，流通略过剩，现货贴水扩大。部分看涨下游入场补货成亮点，但多数对后市信心不 足，接货交单需求减弱，供需缺口扩大，交投氛围一般。 综合来看，宏观情绪升温支撑铝价，供需矛盾不大，预计铝价高位震荡，今现铝或上涨。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 【铝期货市场】：美11月就业报告出炉后市场情绪转乐观，隔夜伦铝震荡走强，最新收盘报价2906美 元/吨，收涨23美元，涨幅0.82%，成交量16689手减少5 ...

宏观层面，周四美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，2025 年 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%， 创 7 月以来最低水平，不仅低于市场预期的 3.1%，也低于 9 月 3.0%的同比涨幅。同期，核心通胀率 （剔除食品和能源价格）同比上涨 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低值，同样低于预期的 3.0%。受美国 政府停摆影响，劳工统计局未能采集 2025 年 10 月相关数据，致使 10 月 CPI 数据缺失，11 月月度数据 也未发布。不过该机构称，9 月至 11 月的两个月间，消费者价格指数累计上涨 0.2%。此次公布的 CPI 数据，为美联储内部鸽派阵营主张进一步降息提供了有力支撑。降息预期通常利好有色金属，利空美元 汇率。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，因产能已达上限，供应难有明显增量。需求端，虽进 入消费淡季，下游整体消费趋弱，但未出现趋势性大幅下滑的情况。下游年底赶工态势显著，汽车、电 子等行业消费具韧性且铝锭社库低位。截至 12 月 18 日，中国主要市场电解铝库存为 56.1 万吨，较本 周一减少 1.6 万吨，铝价底部支撑尚存。不过，后市预期不佳，叠加年底回笼资 ...

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.01%, reaching 14.24 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 539 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.94%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 66.243 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010, is located in Shanghai and specializes in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The revenue composition of the company's main business includes: sales of self-produced aluminum ingots at 65.26%, alumina sales at 24.20%, aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials at 6.89%, high-purity aluminum at 2.10%, and other sales at 1.55% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under China Merchants Fund holds a significant position in Tianshan Aluminum, specifically the China Merchants Quality Growth Mixed Fund (LOF) (161706), which held 6.8365 million shares, accounting for 3.49% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The China Merchants Quality Growth Mixed Fund (LOF) (161706) was established on November 17, 2005, with a current scale of 2.273 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 16.02%, ranking 4654 out of 8098 in its category, and a one-year return of 16.34%, ranking 4430 out of 8067 [2]