创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金。创业板新能源 指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏 （159368）高弹性，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025 年11月30日，规模达7.32亿元；成交额最大，近一月日均成交7275万元。其储能+固态电池占比近 90%，契合当下市场热点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 展望后市，兴业证券指出，光伏主链有望进入全面涨价阶段，2026年储能景气度或有超预期可能，当前 反内卷的决心明确，积极看待本轮光伏供给侧改革。2026年全球储能装机规模将达402GWh，同比增速 约53%，AI浪潮正驱动储能行业加速发展，2026年景气度存在超预期可能。 2025年12月29日午后，A股三大指数有所回落。创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）午后最大跌幅为 1.93%。盘面上，迈为股份上涨18.06%，震裕科技上涨7.40%，泰胜风能上涨4.50%，运达股份上涨 3.24%。截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达7693万元，居 ...

证券研究报告·证券年度投资策略报告·电力设备与新能源行业 供给侧拐点已至，供需逐步修复 ——2026年光伏策略报告 证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 | PART1需求：国内需求高位回落，海外持续增长 | | --- | | PART2.产业链：反内卷陆续起效，价格逐步回升 | | 一、主链：产能出清加速，价格空间修复 | | 二、辅材：龙头优势显著，逆变器α强化 | | PART3.新技术：晶硅有所放缓，钙钛矿GW线落地 | | PART4.投资建议与风险提示 | 3 目录 摘要 注：若无说明，正文中"预计"均来自东吴电新组 2 ◆ 需求：全球装机持续增长，中国装机高位回落。2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87GW，同比+39%，整 体装机处于高位，预计全年装机290GW，26年装机215GW，同降26%。海外市场，预计25年美国/欧洲新增装机 50/70GW，同比持平，后续保持15-21%稳定增长态势。新兴市场贡献较多增量，尤其是中东及印度国家项目 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" based on the expected performance of key companies exceeding the industry index over the next 6 to 12 months [20][23]. Core Insights - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" marks a significant step in the photovoltaic supply-side reform, indicating a move towards reducing internal competition within the industry [4][5]. - The polysilicon sector is expected to undergo a deep adjustment and clearing process over the next six months to a year, with current production levels remaining stable but facing weak downstream demand [5]. - Leading polysilicon companies are anticipated to strengthen their advantages in the long term due to their financial resources, cost management, and product quality [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the recent establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform, which aims to improve the competitive landscape of the photovoltaic industry through market-oriented and legal mechanisms [4][5]. - The current polysilicon production is around 120,000 tons, with limited marginal reductions, and prices have remained stable due to cost support [5]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the polysilicon sector, specifically Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy, while also monitoring trends in granular silicon technology [6]. - The target prices for the recommended companies are set at CNY 28.20 for Tongwei and CNY 35.50 for Daqo, with expected P/E ratios of 38.8 and 39.6 for 2026, respectively [3][6].

Group 1 - Leading photovoltaic companies are negotiating mergers and acquisitions with small and medium-sized enterprises to eliminate some companies and their production capacity [1] - A consortium of no more than 10 leading silicon material companies and financial institutions is being formed to establish a silicon material platform company, which will acquire the production capacity of other silicon material companies [1] - The industry aims to quickly reduce the production capacity of the silicon material sector, with the platform company expected to coordinate the production and sales across the entire silicon material industry [1] Group 2 - According to the latest reports, Tongwei Co., Ltd. achieved a sales volume of 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2025, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, ranking first globally [2] - Daqo New Energy focuses on the research and sales of high-purity polysilicon, with an annual production capacity of 305,000 tons of high-quality, low-energy, and low-cost high-purity polysilicon, making it a major market participant in the polysilicon industry [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Daqo New Energy achieved a polysilicon product sales rate of 138% [2]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 45% increase in new installed capacity in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking a nearly 20-fold increase since 2015, indicating a shift from supplementary energy to a primary energy source [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes green transformation as a core goal, aiming to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind and photovoltaic industries [1] - Recent "anti-involution" policies from the government aim to regulate competition within the photovoltaic sector, transitioning the industry from chaotic low-price competition to sustainable development, which is expected to bring substantial benefits to both supply and demand sides [1] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a technological transformation, with the market share of N-type monocrystalline silicon technology expected to exceed 96.9% by 2025, alongside advancements in TOPCon, HJT, and BC technologies, leading to improved efficiency and reduced costs [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon sector is addressing supply-side issues through the establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies, focusing on capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline to curb disorderly expansion [2] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry has begun to increase prices in Q3 2025, moving above the comprehensive cost line under the new pricing regulations [2] Related Companies in the Photovoltaic Industry - GCL-Poly Energy (03800), New Special Energy (01799), Flat Glass Group (06865), Xinyi Solar (00968), Fuyao Glass (03606), and CAISSA New Energy (01108) are key players in the Hong Kong stock market related to the photovoltaic industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's primary focus on photovoltaic supply-side reform is the establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies, aimed at addressing the supply-side contradictions in the polysilicon sector through capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline in production cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Joint Platform and Industry Reform - The joint platform's formation is crucial for accelerating supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is characterized by capital and technology intensity, and is key to determining costs and profit distribution across the entire industry chain [3]. - The joint platform aims to mitigate the chaotic expansion of the industry, which has been exacerbated by previous overcapacity and price wars, leading to a "low price-loss" vicious cycle [3]. Group 2: Price Recovery and Profit Restoration - Since the initiation of the "anti-involution" measures, the number of participants has increased, and there has been a significant recovery in product prices. By the third quarter of 2025, the polysilicon industry is expected to start price increases under the "no less than cost sales" regulation, gradually returning prices above the comprehensive cost line [4]. - This price recovery has led to notable profit restoration for companies, with Daqo Energy reporting a net profit of 73.48 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025, ending a five-quarter streak of losses, and GCL-Poly Energy also achieving profitability in its photovoltaic materials business [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include polysilicon firms that are central to the anti-involution efforts: Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo Energy (688303.SH), and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [5]. - Additionally, companies with independent alpha trends in the BC sector such as Aiko Solar (600732.SH) and LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) are recommended for attention [5]. - As the sector's valuation and profitability recover, the supply-side reform is expected to extend to auxiliary material segments, suggesting a focus on photovoltaic film companies like Foster (603806.SH) and glass manufacturers like Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to establish a joint platform by the end of 2025, with a clear supply-side reform strategy focusing on top-level policies, industry self-discipline, and technological iteration. The sector has completed price and profit stabilization, indicating a positive market outlook [1]. Group 1: Joint Platform and Supply-Side Reform - The establishment of the joint platform is crucial for accelerating supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is the most upstream part of the photovoltaic industry chain. This initiative involves 17 major companies and aims to address the severe overcapacity and price wars that have led to a "low price-loss" cycle [2]. - The collaborative mechanism of the joint platform will facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity and help polysilicon prices return to levels above the cost line, thereby laying a solid foundation for profit recovery across the entire industry chain [2]. Group 2: Price and Profit Recovery - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts have led to a significant expansion of participating entities and noticeable recovery in product prices. By the third quarter of 2025, polysilicon prices began to rise above the comprehensive cost line, resulting in substantial profit recovery for companies [3]. - For instance, Daqo Energy reported a net profit of 73.48 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025, marking the end of five consecutive quarters of losses, while GCL-Poly also achieved profitability in its photovoltaic materials business during the same period [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [4]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price recovery and profit restoration due to supply-side reforms, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for the entire supply chain [4]. - A joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to be established by the end of 2025, aimed at addressing supply-side issues and preventing disorderly expansion in the industry [4]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw notable profit recovery for companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy, marking an end to a prolonged period of losses [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side reforms with a focus on polysilicon, which is essential for controlling costs and profit distribution across the supply chain [4]. - The establishment of a joint platform is a key step in addressing the oversupply and price wars that have plagued the industry [4]. Market Performance - Following the announcement of the joint platform, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant stock price increase, with companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar reaching new highs [2][4]. - The price recovery in the polysilicon market has led to improved profitability for several companies, indicating a positive trend for the industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on polysilicon companies such as Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy as key investment opportunities [4]. - Additionally, companies in the BC segment like Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy are highlighted for their potential independent market performance [4]. - As the supply-side reforms progress, attention is also drawn to auxiliary material companies like Foster and Xinyi Glass, which may benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is crucial for addressing the industry's overcapacity and price wars [4]. - The "anti-involution" initiative has led to significant price recovery and profit restoration across the industry, with companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy reporting a return to profitability in Q3 2025 [4]. - The report suggests that the joint platform will be completed by the end of 2025, supported by top-level policies, industry self-discipline, and technological advancements, which will further stabilize prices and profits [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant shift with the formation of a joint platform aimed at addressing supply-side issues, particularly in polysilicon production [4]. - The industry has faced severe price competition leading to losses, but recent collaborative efforts are expected to restore profitability [4]. Company Analysis - Key companies to watch include: 1. Polysilicon leaders: Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy [4]. 2. Companies with independent alpha performance: Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy [4]. 3. Companies in auxiliary materials: Foster and Xinyi Glass, which are expected to benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4]. Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 and beyond [5]. - For instance, Tongwei Co. has a market cap of 112 billion yuan with a projected net profit of -5.23 billion yuan for 2025, while Daqo New Energy is projected to recover to a profit of 1.36 billion yuan in 2026 [5].

Group 1 - Tesla's Model Y L orders for October are sold out, with delivery for new orders expected in November, indicating strong demand for the vehicle [1] - Huaxin Securities reports that Tesla's global production and sales data for Q2 2025 shows a recovery, although competition in the domestic market has increased [1] - Wuzhou Xinchun's bearings are now supplied to top five global manufacturers, including products used in Tesla and other electric vehicles [2] Group 2 - RISC-V architecture is seen as a significant breakthrough for future chip industry innovation, with Infineon planning to mass-produce RISC-V MCU products by 2028-2029 [3] - Haitong International believes RISC-V's transition to high-performance computing will reshape the competitive landscape of the chip industry [3] - Chengdu Huami has successfully launched a low-power RISC-V MCU, suitable for IoT and wearable devices [4] Group 3 - Meituan's AI Agent product "Xiao Mei" is set for public testing, designed to enhance local service experiences through natural language interaction [5] - IDC predicts the global AI Agent market will reach approximately $5.29 billion by 2024, with significant growth expected in the Chinese enterprise AI Agent application market by 2030 [6] - Companies like Zhongwen Online and Yidian Tianxia are developing AI Agent systems for marketing and public services, indicating a trend towards AI integration in various sectors [7] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a shift towards price increases and production limits, with a focus on supply-side reforms to restore healthy market conditions [8] - Daqo New Energy is a leading player in the silicon material industry, with an annual production capacity of 305,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon [8] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China and Bank Indonesia have launched a bilateral currency settlement framework and QR code interoperability project, enhancing cross-border payment cooperation [9] - The CIPS system's improvements are expected to boost the efficiency of RMB cross-border clearing, benefiting payment service providers and financial IT service companies [9][10]