（来源：吴说） 1.比特币财库公司估值压力持续加剧 由于监管限制导致本土 CEX 主要仅能开展现货交易，韩国投资者在 2025 年将超过 160 万亿韩元（约 1100 亿美元）的加密资产从本土交易所转移至海外平台。同期，韩国投资者为海外 CEX 贡献约 4.77 万 亿韩元（约 33.6 亿美元）手续费，主要流向 Binance、Bybit、OKX、Bitget、Huobi 等平台，其中 Binance 占比约 57.7%。 4.2025 年加密货币钓鱼攻击损失大幅下降 83%，降至 8385 万美元 比特币财库公司（Bitcoin Treasury Companies）的估值压力持续加剧，目前前 100 大比特币财库公司 中，已有至少 37 家（约 40%）股价跌破其所持比特币的净资产价值（NAV）。宏观分析师 Alex Kruger 将这一模式形容为"畸形结构"，并类比 2020 年 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 溢价崩塌前的情形。由于股价低 于 NAV，这些公司已难以通过增发股票融资而不稀释股东价值，财库扩张模型基本失效。包括微策略 在内的多家头部公司当前折价约 17%，市场普遍预期 ...

新火科技控股（01611.HK）发布截至2025年9月30日止的年度业绩公告，公司在营收实现高速增长同时 录得亏损。 年报显示，公司2025年财年实现总收入86.61亿港元，同比增长451.8%。其中，加密资产交易业务收入 约86.12亿港元，同比增长466.5%。公司表示，营收增长主要源于加密货币OTC交易业务规模的显著扩 大，该业务采取低毛利、放量型策略，旨在快速提升市场影响力。 在营收高速增长同时，公司也录得除税前亏损约963.7万港元，公司拥有人应占亏损约921.2万港元。 公司表示，亏损主要由三大非经营性因素构成：首先是非现金公允价值波动，受市场行情影响录得3651 万港元会计亏损，此项不涉及现金流出；其次是高基数对比效应，2024财年受FTX债权转让产生的8500 万港元大额减值拨回支撑，对比之下本年度利润表现受压制；最后是主动的战略性资本开支，行政费用 支出约1.12亿港元，主要用于引进全球顶尖金融人才以构建私行服务壁垒。若剔除上述一次性及非现金 因素，核心业务经营性亏损已明显收窄。公司将本财年定位为"战略投入年"，通过在人力、合规、产品 体系上的系统性投入，为2026年迈向规模验证期与全球化扩 ...

吴说获悉，据 Onchain Lens 监测，过去 2 天内，Vitalik Buterin 出售了多种加密资产，包括 UNI、 ZORA、BNB、KNC、OMG 以及部分 meme 代币；在完成相关出售后，其通过 RAILGUN 转移了约 564,672 美元的 USDC 以及 27 枚 ETH（约 80,364 美元）。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of professional tools in trading precious metal cryptocurrencies, specifically highlighting how the THPX signal source provides precise support for trading decisions involving XAGBTC (silver priced in Bitcoin) and XAUBTC (gold priced in Bitcoin) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations of XAGBTC and XAUBTC are influenced by both traditional macroeconomic factors such as global inflation expectations, interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and the strength of the US dollar, as well as the inherent volatility of Bitcoin itself [1][3]. - These trading pairs serve as a unique bridge between traditional precious metal markets and emerging digital currency markets, attracting traders seeking differentiated investment portfolios and arbitrage opportunities [1][3]. Group 2: THPX Signal Source Functionality - The THPX signal source utilizes innovative algorithmic models to continuously integrate and process vast amounts of interrelated market data, including real-time market depth, liquidity conditions, macroeconomic indicators, and market sentiment metrics [3][5]. - The signals generated by THPX provide actionable insights for traders, including trend identification, potential reversal alerts, timing suggestions for entry and exit points, and risk management assistance [5][7]. Group 3: Decision-Making Enhancement - For traders focused on XAGBTC and XAUBTC, the THPX signal source acts as an efficient information hub and decision-making catalyst, significantly reducing the time required to form judgments from collected information [7][8]. - By combining the objective reference points provided by THPX with traders' own market understanding and risk tolerance, the decision-making quality and response speed in these highly correlated and volatile trading pairs are enhanced [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - In the context of the deep integration of digital assets and traditional precious metal markets, the unique complexity and opportunities presented by XAGBTC and XAUBTC require timely processing of vast amounts of intertwined information [8]. - Utilizing professional tools like the THPX signal source is crucial for investors aiming to achieve better performance in the XAGBTC and XAUBTC markets, marking a significant step towards optimizing investment strategies in precious metal cryptocurrencies through intelligent technology [8].

Core Viewpoint - HashKey Holdings, led by Dr. Xiao Feng, has become the first cryptocurrency company to go public in Hong Kong, but its stock performance has been underwhelming, raising questions about its future growth potential in a challenging regulatory environment [2][4]. Group 1: Company Background - Dr. Xiao Feng, a pioneer in China's public fund industry, founded HashKey Group in Hong Kong in 2022 after a successful career with Bosera Funds and Wanxiang Group, focusing on blockchain technology [3][4]. - HashKey Holdings has established three main business segments: trading facilitation services, on-chain services, and asset management, with a goal to create a closed-loop business model [4][7]. Group 2: Business Performance - Trading facilitation services are the core revenue driver, accounting for 68% of total income, with significant contributions from retail and institutional clients [5][8]. - As of September 30, 2025, HashKey has facilitated a total trading volume of 1.3 trillion HKD, leading the regional onshore platform market [5][8]. - The company has seen a dramatic increase in trading volume, from 4.2 billion HKD in 2022 to 638.4 billion HKD in 2024, representing over 150 times growth [8]. Group 3: Financial Challenges - Despite some operational highlights, HashKey faces significant financial challenges, including a cumulative loss of 2.355 billion HKD from 2022 to 2024, with a single-year loss of 1.1896 billion HKD in 2024 [10][11]. - The company has experienced continuous negative cash flow, with a net outflow of 266 million HKD in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about its sustainability [10][11]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - HashKey holds a 75% market share in Hong Kong's virtual asset trading volume, but it lags significantly behind offshore exchanges like Binance, which has a daily trading volume of 11.6 billion USD [11][14]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by major offshore exchanges, which benefit from less stringent regulations, making it difficult for compliant onshore platforms like HashKey to compete effectively [14][16]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - HashKey's ability to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange does not indicate a relaxation of mainland China's strict regulations on cryptocurrency, as it operates under a different regulatory framework in Hong Kong [17][18]. - The company is positioned as a "risk buffer" for the mainland, allowing for controlled financial experimentation without impacting financial stability [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - HASHKEY HLDGS has officially launched its global offering in Hong Kong, aiming to raise approximately HKD 14.264 billion through the issuance of around 241 million shares, with a price range of HKD 5.95 to HKD 6.95 per share [2] Group 1: Offering Details - The global offering consists of approximately 241 million shares, with around 217 million shares allocated for international offering and 24.06 million shares for public offering in Hong Kong [2] - The offering period for the public sale is from December 9 to December 12, with the final offer price and allocation results expected to be announced on December 16 [2] - Trading of the shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is set to commence on December 17, with a stock code of 3887 and an entry fee of approximately HKD 2,808.04 [2] Group 2: Investor Support - The offering has secured support from nine cornerstone investors, including UBS AM Singapore, Fidelity, CDH, and others, who have committed to subscribe for shares totaling USD 75 million (approximately HKD 584 million) at the offer price [3] Group 3: Company Overview - HASHKEY HLDGS is a licensed digital asset company providing trading facilitation, on-chain services, and asset management, holding 13 licenses across various jurisdictions including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan [3] - The company is a leading player in the virtual asset exchange sector in Hong Kong, with a trading volume of HKD 638.4 billion in 2024, capturing over 75% market share [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a cumulative increase of nearly 460% from 2022 to 2024, projecting revenue of HKD 721 million in 2024 [4] - Despite significant investments in technology and compliance, the company has not yet achieved profitability, forecasting a net loss of HKD 1.19 billion in 2024 and over HKD 500 million in the first half of 2025 [4] - User growth has been explosive, increasing from 18 registered users at the end of 2022 to 1.4469 million by June 2025, with a customer retention rate of 99.9% during the historical record period [4]

Core Viewpoint - HashKey Group has submitted a confidential IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially becoming the first compliant cryptocurrency exchange listed in Hong Kong, following OSL [1][10]. Company Overview - HashKey Group operates as a licensed cryptocurrency exchange in Hong Kong, with a comprehensive business model that includes cryptocurrency trading, Web3, tokenization, venture capital, asset management, and blockchain technology [5][8]. - The flagship business, HashKey Exchange, has received regulatory approval and holds multiple licenses under Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Ordinance [5][18]. Token Information - HashKey's platform token, HSK, has a total supply of 1 billion, with 65% allocated for ecosystem growth, 30% for team incentives, and 5% for reserves [2][4]. - HSK can only be used within the HashKey platform for service fees, community rewards, and various value-added services, distinguishing it from stablecoins which have broader utility [4][5]. Market Context - The cryptocurrency market is still in an expansion phase, with profitability challenges evident across the industry, as seen with OSL Group's ongoing losses despite revenue growth [12][16]. - HashKey's IPO attempt is set against a backdrop of increasing competition from integrated players like JD.com and Ant Group, which have established advantages in transaction volume and market demand [16][23]. Regulatory Environment - HashKey Exchange is positioned as the largest licensed cryptocurrency exchange in Hong Kong, benefiting from its compliance with strict regulatory requirements, which may attract traditional financial institutions [17][18]. - The high compliance costs associated with maintaining a licensed status could impact HashKey's profitability, as the operational costs are significantly elevated due to regulatory demands [20][23]. Future Prospects - HashKey's ability to balance short-term revenue with long-term investments will be crucial for its financial sustainability, especially given the volatility in cryptocurrency prices [16][23]. - The company's involvement in the virtual asset ETF market may provide additional revenue streams, leveraging its compliant status to bridge traditional and digital finance [22][23].

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy Rating [5] Core Viewpoints - Robinhood Markets, Inc is positioned to leverage its innovative capabilities in the cryptocurrency sector, particularly with the introduction of tokenized stocks and the acquisition of Bitstamp, which enhances its regulatory compliance and market reach [2][4][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Robinhood aims to democratize finance by lowering investment barriers for retail investors, offering commission-free trading and a user-friendly platform [11][12]. - The company has a diverse business model that includes brokerage services, cryptocurrency trading, and subscription services [13][14]. Development of Cryptocurrency Business - Robinhood launched its cryptocurrency trading services in 2018, and by Q2 2025, its cryptocurrency trading revenue reached $160 million, accounting for 16% of total revenue, up from approximately $5 million in Q2 2020 [2][26]. - The company has expanded its offerings with the introduction of the Robinhood Wallet and plans to enter the tokenized stock market [2][4]. Peer Comparison - Compared to competitors like Coinbase and Gemini, Robinhood's cryptocurrency revenue is still relatively small, but it boasts a significantly higher number of monthly active users, with 14.9 million in Q4 2024, which is 1.8 times that of Coinbase [3][55]. - Robinhood's average revenue per user (ARPU) surpassed $50 in Q2 2024, indicating stable user monetization [64]. New Business Ventures: Tokenized Stocks - Robinhood plans to offer tokenized stock trading in Europe, which could enhance its market presence and attract a broader customer base [92]. - The introduction of tokenized stocks is expected to facilitate 24/7 trading and lower barriers for non-U.S. investors to access U.S. assets [94]. Market Opportunities and Challenges - The supportive regulatory environment under the Trump administration is seen as a potential catalyst for Robinhood's growth in the cryptocurrency sector [30][31]. - However, challenges such as trust issues regarding tokenized stocks and regulatory scrutiny from European authorities could pose risks to the business [95].

Core Insights - Gemini officially listed on Nasdaq on September 12, with its stock price surging over 60% on the first day [1][2] - Nasdaq has acquired a stake in Gemini to enhance its presence in the cryptocurrency trading sector [5][6] Company Overview - Gemini's IPO was priced at $28 per share, raising $425 million by issuing approximately 15.2 million shares, exceeding the initial expected price range of $24-$26 [2] - The company achieved a market capitalization of $3.801 billion after its first trading day, with a closing price increase of 14.29% [2] - Founded in 2014 by billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Gemini operates in over 60 countries and offers trading and custody services for over 70 digital assets [2][3] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Gemini reported 523,000 monthly active users, 10,000 institutional clients, $18 billion in cryptocurrency custody assets, and a total trading volume of $285 billion [3] - For the first half of 2025, Gemini generated $68.6 million in revenue but incurred a net loss of $282.5 million [3] Strategic Partnerships - Nasdaq's investment in Gemini aims to establish a strategic partnership, allowing access to Gemini's custody and staking services [5][6] - The collaboration is expected to enhance trading efficiency and security for Gemini's institutional clients through Nasdaq's Calypso platform [5] Market Trends - Nasdaq is actively pursuing the tokenization of securities and has submitted a proposal to the SEC to allow traditional stocks to be traded in tokenized form [6] - The SEC has indicated potential rule changes that may permit cryptocurrency trading on national securities exchanges, aligning with Nasdaq's goals [6] - Major financial institutions, including Bank of America and Citigroup, are exploring the launch of tokenized assets, indicating a broader trend towards integrating digital assets with traditional finance [6]

Group 1 - The core challenge for the Federal Reserve is to precisely manage interest rate expectations, as signaling rate cuts can lead to long-term easing expectations and undermine policy effectiveness [1] - The Federal Reserve employs a strategy of ambiguity and data dependence to retain operational flexibility, with decision-making driven not only by inflation and employment data but also by deeper considerations such as maintaining the dollar's status and ensuring the stability of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3] - The shift in focus towards stablecoins as a significant aspect of global financial policy is driven by policy forces rather than mere technological evolution, indicating a structural pivot in regulatory discussions [3][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's primary goal in reshaping monetary governance logic revolves around maintaining the dollar's status and ensuring the stability of U.S. Treasury bonds, which are crucial to the global financial system [3] - The total scale of U.S. Treasury bonds is projected to approach $39 trillion by early 2025, with over one-third held by foreign institutions, highlighting the importance of bond price stability to avoid increasing domestic financing costs and destabilizing the dollar's credit system [3] - The Federal Reserve's tolerance for market volatility has significantly decreased, prioritizing the stabilization of long-term yields over merely addressing inflation, creating a unique market environment for trading safe-haven assets on decentralized exchanges like XBIT [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making shows a clear bias towards preventing financial risks from asset price declines while viewing the decline in purchasing power of low-income groups as a normal economic adjustment [5] - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform offers significant advantages by allowing users to participate in compliant asset trading without the need for KYC, ensuring continuous and free asset transactions while maintaining user control over their assets [5] - Starting at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will implement a "dual-track operation" strategy, maintaining nominal interest rates while secretly adjusting the market through balance sheet expansion, which has involved purchasing over $200 billion in Treasury bonds in the past six months [5][8] Group 4 - Major economies are advancing compliance frameworks for stablecoins, with Hong Kong establishing a timeline for related regulations and the EU's MiCA regulation set to take effect in 2024, covering comprehensive crypto asset regulation [7][8] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. signifies a regulatory easing in the stablecoin sector and marks a shift towards allowing the private sector to issue compliant digital dollars, which may serve as a global regulatory reference model [8] - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a traditional dual mandate focused on inflation and employment to a multifaceted role that includes maintaining dollar credit, ensuring financial stability, and managing expectations, reflecting a significant evolution in its decision-making logic [8]