2025 年 08 月 26 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 148 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 蔚来全新 ES8、吉利银河 M9 开启预售，中大型智能 SUV 市场迎来重磅新品--行业周报 PCB 刀具持续高端化，加速扩充产能--鼎泰高科/通用设备(301377/216401) 公司点评 经营性利润稳健增长，未来三年分红比例拟提升至 60%以上--国电电力/电力(600795/214101) 公司点评 2025 年 Q2 利润同比回升，研发投入不断加强--安图生物/医疗器械(603658/213705) 公司点评 美债的历史演进与当下困局--宏观深度研究 电视剧业务迎新政利好，主投电影《刺杀小说家 2》定档国庆--华策影视/影视院线(300133/217206) 公司点 评 业绩韧性充分，产品结构持续升级--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 2025Q2 归母净利润同比高增，受益高端 PCB 扩产趋势--大族数控/专用设备(301200/216402 ...

Group 1 - Trump's tariff policy is reshaping global supply chains and investment landscapes, prompting Switzerland to reassess its role in the world [1][2] - Switzerland has been historically viewed as a neutral mediator, but the current geopolitical climate raises questions about the viability of this stance [1][2] - The U.S. has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, shocking the nation as the U.S. is its largest single export market, with exports including watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, and machine tools [4][5] Group 2 - The trade deficit with the U.S. reached $48 billion as of June, primarily due to surging imports of pharmaceuticals and gold [4] - Swiss companies are considering relocating production to neighboring countries due to the high tariffs, with some already planning to shift operations [5][7] - The Gruyère cheese industry, representing 1,600 dairy farmers, anticipates a decline in exports to the U.S., which accounts for one-third of its market [7] Group 3 - The political debate in Switzerland is intensifying regarding whether to strengthen ties with the EU, with a potential public vote on expanding access to the EU single market [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the tariff situation may inadvertently bolster pro-EU sentiments among the Swiss population [10][11] - The historical neutrality of Switzerland is being challenged, especially in light of recent geopolitical events, including the war in Ukraine [8][11]

Group 1: Company Overview and Business Segments - The company focuses on two main business segments: micro-special motors and precision drug delivery devices [3][4] - In the micro-special motors segment, the company is actively expanding its customer base while enhancing automation and intelligent production to reduce costs and improve quality [3] - The precision drug delivery device segment is deepening cooperation with existing strategic clients and exploring new clients, with several customized projects currently in testing and validation stages [3] Group 2: Research and Development Progress - The company has made significant breakthroughs in core technologies for frameless motors, including high torque density magnetic circuit design and high-precision servo control algorithms [2][3] - Continuous investment in R&D is aimed at achieving breakthroughs in the precision drug delivery device sector, leveraging the company's established expertise in micro-special motors [4][8] Group 3: Market Potential and Future Outlook - The future market demand for injection pens is expected to be substantial, particularly in the fields of diabetes and weight loss medications, with significant potential for domestic substitution [6][8] - The company aims to become a leading player in the domestic precision drug delivery device market, capitalizing on its early market entry and comprehensive product line [8] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company enjoys a strong customer resource advantage, with a stable market share in the air conditioning sector among major brands like Midea, Gree, and Haier [4] - A robust R&D team with extensive experience in product development and process innovation supports the company's competitive edge [4] - The company adheres to a core value of quality management, which has garnered positive feedback and multiple accolades from clients [4] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions Strategy - The company is focused on its core business while seeking quality targets for potential mergers and acquisitions, with plans to disclose any significant developments in accordance with legal regulations [5]

Market Overview - On August 7, A-shares experienced fluctuations but showed a significant rebound before the morning close, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.13% [1] - The total trading volume for the market reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous morning [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector surged due to overseas news, with stocks like Dongxin Technology (688110) hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high, with a trading volume exceeding 4.2 billion yuan [3] - Dongxin Technology has seen four daily limits in the last eight trading days, with a cumulative increase of 90.97% during this period and a year-to-date increase of 193.98% [3] - The company focuses on the research, design, and sales of small-capacity storage chips, with applications in various fields including network communication and consumer electronics [3] Apple-Related Stocks - Apple-related stocks strengthened in the morning, with Industrial Fulian (601138) rising by 4.11% and reaching a new high [5] - On August 6, Apple announced an additional investment commitment of 100 billion USD in the U.S., accelerating its investment plan, with a total investment of 600 billion USD over the next four years [5] - Apple's stock rose by 5.09%, increasing its market capitalization by approximately 153.4 billion USD (about 1.1 trillion yuan) in one day [5] Medical Device Sector - Medical device stocks showed an upward trend, with companies like Shangrong Medical (002551) and Kehua Bio (002022) hitting the daily limit [6] - The National Medical Products Administration recently announced measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, identifying key areas for development [6][9] - The medical device index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 29 times, which is at the 26th percentile level over the past five years [9] "Millet Economy" Concept Stocks - "Millet economy" concept stocks rose, with Jin Hong Group (603518) hitting the daily limit and Chuangyuan Co. (300703) increasing by over 10% [10] - The Beijing government recently issued a plan to encourage cross-industry cooperation and support the development of traditional brands, which includes promoting the "millet economy" [14] - Pop Mart, a popular stock in the "millet economy," saw its shares rise by 2.74% to 284.6 HKD per share after reaching a historical high [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent procurement data for PCR instruments, indicating a significant increase in the number of units awarded compared to the previous week, despite a decrease in total monetary value [3]. Group 1: Procurement Overview - A total of 10 procurement items related to PCR instruments were recorded in the 30th week of 2025 (July 21 - July 27), with 45 units awarded, representing a 36.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - The total monetary value for the awarded units was 3.714 million yuan, which is a 55.3% decrease from the previous week [3]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Among the brands, Thermo Fisher won 5 units of fluorescent quantitative PCR instruments, while Bole, Borui, and Huasheng each secured 1 unit, with an average winning price of 390,200 yuan per unit [3][5]. Group 3: Detailed Procurement Data - The detailed procurement data includes various institutions and the specific models of PCR instruments purchased, with notable entries such as: - Foshan Second People's Hospital purchased 2 units of Thermo Fisher's QuantStudio™3/FQD-96C at 300,000 yuan each [5]. - Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine acquired 2 units of Thermo Fisher's QuantStudio 5 at 500,000 yuan each [5]. - Beijing Liver Disease Research Institute purchased 1 unit of Thermo Fisher's QuantStudio6pro at 785,000 yuan [5]. Group 4: Procurement Types - The breakdown of procurement types shows: - 35 units of PCR instruments totaling 512,800 yuan - 8 units of fluorescent quantitative PCR instruments totaling 3,121,600 yuan - 2 units of gradient PCR instruments totaling 79,400 yuan [7].

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68% to 3591.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.45% to 11152.77 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.43% to 2377.84 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - Strong sectors included assisted reproduction, AI technology, and liquid cooling servers, while steel, oil and gas, and coal mining sectors declined [4]. Capital Flow - Major capital inflows were observed in the computer, communication, and pharmaceutical sectors, while outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and public utilities [5]. Stock Specifics - Notable net inflows were seen in stocks such as Cambridge Technology (14.63 billion), Easy Point (12.33 billion), and Changying Precision (11.54 billion) [6]. - Conversely, significant net outflows were recorded for Kweichow Moutai (12.81 billion), CATL (8.85 billion), and Midea Group (7.26 billion) [7]. Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities indicated that the real estate sector may see overall valuation recovery, with leading companies benefiting from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted a shift in policy supporting the innovative drug and medical device industries, suggesting potential valuation and performance recovery in the medical device sector [9]. - Huatai Securities provided insights on the AI large model industry chain, noting a new growth phase driven by token growth, increasing server computing demand, and a competitive landscape fostering industry advancement [10].

Group 1: AI Application Sector - The recent rebound in AI application concept stocks is driven by the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, focusing on large model applications and new infrastructure for computing power, attracting significant capital [3] - Companies like Hanwang Technology and Insai Group have seen their stocks surge due to continuous technological breakthroughs and the implementation of scenarios, indicating a "policy + technology" dual-driven logic [3] - Caution is advised against chasing high prices, as the overall market is still in an adjustment phase, and investors should focus on companies with actual orders rather than those driven purely by concepts [3] Group 2: Medical Device Sector - Recent favorable policies, such as the optimization of lifecycle regulation to support high-end medical device innovation, have opened doors for medical robots and AI medical devices, signaling a boost for this sector [3] - Leading companies like Kangtai Medical and Zhengchuan Co. have experienced stock price surges, reflecting the acceleration of domestic substitution in high-end imaging equipment and artificial organs, which were previously reliant on imports [3] - The third quarter is expected to be a turning point for medical device performance, as orders from the first half of the year begin to convert into revenue, providing solid fundamental support for the current market trend [3] Group 3: Logistics Sector - The logistics sector has shown unusual activity due to the introduction of low-altitude economy policies, with new technologies like drone delivery and eVTOL gaining traction, exemplified by Shentong Express's collaboration with Cainiao to deploy 2,000 smart delivery devices [4] - The e-commerce logistics index reached a new high for the year in June, with rural business volume growth exceeding 30%, indicating an upward trend in order volume for express delivery companies as the summer consumption peak approaches [4] - However, the international shipping market remains in a low season, with SCFI freight rates declining for six consecutive weeks, suggesting that opportunities in the logistics sector are more concentrated in domestic policy-driven niches like smart delivery and rural e-commerce [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Strategies - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing a volume contraction, indicating that capital is still in a wait-and-see mode, while the North Certificate 50 index is rising, suggesting some funds are seeking safe havens [5] - AI and medical device sectors are seen as potential low-entry opportunities as long as policy expectations remain, particularly in medical devices where the easing of centralized procurement pressure combined with performance turning points may yield excess returns in the second half of the year [5] - The logistics sector should be closely monitored for the implementation progress of low-altitude economy policies, with leading companies like Shentong Express potentially boosting overall sector sentiment if they maintain their upward momentum [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.45%, down 107 points, closing at 23,808 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 109.5 billion [1] Stablecoin Regulation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to release guidelines for stablecoin regulations this month, aiming to issue licenses within the year [1] - Stocks related to stablecoins saw significant gains, with Guotai Junan International rising by 8.2%, ZhongAn Online increasing by 5.64%, and Yike rising over 9% [1] New Tea Beverage Market - A subsidy war in the takeaway market has ignited the new tea beverage sector, with Guming and Cha Baidao both rising over 9% [1] Digital Health Services - Health Road saw its stock rise over 9% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on a digital health service platform [1] Gaming Industry - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions by 9% [1] - Gaming stocks continued their upward trend, with Amax Holdings up 3.7%, Melco International Development up 1.6%, and MGM China up 2.1% [1] Medical Device Sector - In response to China's reciprocal restrictions on EU medical devices, the National Medical Products Administration issued support for high-end medical devices [1] - Medical device stocks experienced broad gains, with Spring Medical up 1.86%, Yongsheng Medical up 7.27%, and Xinwei Medical-B up 5.5% [1] Company Developments - China Rare Earth Holdings plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Jihong Co. saw its stock rise over 10%, with a projected over 55% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [3] - H&H International Holdings is expected to see a decline in net profit by 45% to 65% for the first half of the year, resulting in a drop of over 6% in its stock price [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating tensions between China and the EU, particularly regarding trade disputes and protective measures [1][2][5] - China initiated an anti-dumping investigation against EU-origin brandy, citing a dumping margin of 27.7%-34.9%, and imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty starting July 5 [1][6] - The EU's decision to impose additional tariffs of up to 38.1% on Chinese electric vehicles is seen as a significant point of contention, reflecting a broader trend of trade protectionism from the EU [1][4][15] Group 2 - The French Finance Minister's comments indicate a growing sentiment among some European politicians that trade with China could harm European interests, which may hinder healthy bilateral relations [2][4] - The EU's unilateral imposition of anti-dumping duties is viewed as a double standard, undermining fair competition principles and reflecting anxiety over China's industrial advancements [5][6] - China's response to the EU's trade measures, including the anti-dumping investigation and restrictions on medical devices, demonstrates its commitment to defending its trade rights while advocating for fair and open trade practices [6][15] Group 3 - The complex dynamics of China-EU relations provide both challenges and opportunities for diplomatic engagement, as highlighted by recent high-level dialogues between Chinese officials and EU leaders [10][12] - Misinterpretations and misinformation in media regarding China-EU negotiations can disrupt the communication process and hinder mutual understanding [10][12] - The articles suggest that cooperation between China and the EU is essential for maintaining global economic stability and countering unilateralism, particularly in the context of U.S. trade policies [15]

Core Insights - Investing in China is seen as investing in the future, driven by a large market size, a complete industrial system, and an improving business environment, which collectively attract foreign investment and contribute to China's modernization [1] Group 1: Investment Attraction in Chengdu - Chengdu has attracted over 4,000 foreign enterprises and more than 100,000 foreign residents, making it a hotspot for foreign investment [2] - The city is recognized for its unique cultural heritage, convenient location, and favorable business environment, which are key factors in attracting foreign businesses [2][4] - Chengdu's policies, such as the "Talent Plan" and "Entrepreneurship Tianfu Plan," signal the city's openness to foreign talent and investment [5] Group 2: Case Studies of Foreign Companies - Robert, a Dutch entrepreneur, established a company in Chengdu to help overseas talent find jobs, benefiting from local policies and support [5][6] - The Australian Cochlear company chose Chengdu for its production base due to the city's developed transportation network and its strategic position in the Belt and Road Initiative, investing approximately $87 million [7][8] - Belgian entrepreneur Dieter created a WeChat platform to assist foreigners in Chengdu, capitalizing on the city's friendly atmosphere and growing international community [9][10] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - Chengdu's international airport is projected to handle over 87 million passengers and 1 million tons of cargo by 2024, enhancing its role as a logistics hub [8] - In the first four months of this year, Chengdu attracted $656 million in foreign direct investment, leading among midwestern cities in China [8]