国外 1. 惠誉：预计美联储上半年降息两次，今年失业率或稳于4.6% 惠誉将2025年美国GDP增长预估值及2026年增长预测值上调。此次调整是在纳入了因去年底政府停摆而 延迟发布的经济数据后作出的。惠誉目前预计2025年GDP增长2.1%，高于其2025年12月《全球经济展 望》（GEO）中预测的1.8%。同时，将2026年的增长预测从上次报告的1.9%上调至2.0%。鉴于10月数 据不完整，近期CPI通胀趋势难以解读。据估计，通胀率在2025年12月升至3.0%（11月为2.7%），并受 关税传导延迟的影响，2026年将进一步上升，年底预计达到3.2%。由于就业增长放缓的影响被劳动力 增速下降所抵消，预计2026年平均失业率为4.6%，与近期水平接近。我们预计美联储将在2026年上半 年降息两次，将联邦基金利率（上限）下调至3.25%。 2. 高盛：投资者对石油的看空情绪达到近十年来最高水平 高盛集团的一项调查发现，地缘政治因素令机构投资者对石油的看法达到近10年来最悲观的水平，全球 市场正面临石油供过于求的困境。根据高盛的调查，在涵盖各类资产的1100多名客户中，超过59%的人 看空或略微看空原油市场。 ...

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 is stable, with general public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1][3] - National general public budget revenue is 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The issuance of new local government general and special bonds amounts to 2.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects in key areas [1][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but has shown a recovery with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [2] - Major tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have seen increases of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2] - Non-tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 2.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3 - Significant increases in spending on social security and employment (9.2%), education (5.9%), and scientific technology (9.1%) have been noted [3] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent from government fund budgets, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4 - The issuance of national bonds has reached a historical high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.55 billion yuan or 35.28% year-on-year [4] - The special bond issuance has progressed well, with 555 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds issued, accelerating by 18 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has resulted in sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in various consumer goods, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance plans to arrange 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits annually from 2024 to 2026 to support the replacement of existing hidden debts [5] - By the end of June 2025, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [5] - The implementation of the replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure and facilitated the reform and transformation of financing platforms [5]