日前在北京举行的中央经济工作会议受到国际社会广泛关注。国际舆论认为，此次会议为明年中国经济 工作锚定航向，为"十五五"开局奠定良好基础。在全球经济不确定性上升的背景下，中国经济保持稳健 增长势头，与各国共享发展机遇，将继续成为全球的重要增长引擎，为世界注入更多稳定性和正能量。 不断扩大内需，坚持稳中求进工作总基调 中央经济工作会议明确提出，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场""坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动 能"。新的一年，中国将继续坚持内需主导和创新驱动，并保持宏观政策稳定性，以更主动、更稳健的 政策组合筑牢经济基本盘。 新加坡《联合早报》刊文说，此次会议释放了明确信号，中国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国 内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，因地制宜发展新质生产力，因地制宜做好经济工作，实现高质量、可持续 的发展。 巴基斯坦《每日新闻报》报道说，中国"十四五"即将圆满收官，"十五五"将迎来开局之年，在此关键节 点举行中央经济工作会议意义重大。会议明确了明年中国经济发展方向，将继续贯彻落实新发展理念， 推进高质量发展，科技创新、服务业扩能提质、全面绿色转型等成为推动中国经济稳步增长的关键因 素。报道认为，中国拥有超 ...

2024年经济数据一出来，大家的目光都盯上了中美对比。这俩数字，37万亿对29万亿，听着就挺扎眼 的。中国经济按购买力平价算，已经是美国的128%，这事儿不是随便说说，得看数据说话。 国际货币基金组织在2025年10月的世界经济展望报告里，给出了2024年的估算：中国购买力平价GDP达 到37万亿美刀，美国是30万亿左右。 这不是空穴来风，早几年中国就悄悄超过美国了，按这个计算方 式，2024年差距拉到128%。 为啥用购买力评价？因为名义GDP太受汇率影响，美元一强势，中国数据就缩水。购买力平价调整了各 国物价水平，更能反映真实经济体量。比如在中国，一顿饭花的钱在美国可能买不到啥，但实际产出和 消费能力没差那么多。 名义GDP上，美国还是老大，2024年29.1万亿，中国18.2万亿左右。 但这数字容易被汇率波动忽悠。 美联储从2022年开始加息，美元升值，人民币相对贬值，中国出口东西用美元算就显得便宜了点。结果 名义差距拉大，但实际经济实力没那么悬殊。 国际货币基金组织的数据显示，按购买力平价，中国从2016年起就是全球最大经济体。 2024年这个37 万亿的数字，来自调整后估算，突出中国制造业和内需的劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a US-China trade agreement by October 30 appears low, despite recent developments indicating a shift in trade relations that could benefit global trade terms and export-dependent economies [1][3]. Economic Backdrop: China's Domestic Challenges - Recent trade data shows a rebound in external demand for China, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.4% in August, and industrial profits rising by 21.6% year-on-year, compared to 20.4% in August [4]. - However, overcapacity and excess supply in sectors like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels are causing deflationary pressures, leading to price cuts and market flooding [5]. Trade Deal Implications - A potential US-China trade deal that includes lower or zero tariffs on Chinese goods could help rebalance trade dynamics, with strong US demand being crucial for improving profit margins and domestic consumption in China [6]. - The ambition of the Chinese government to maintain export dominance while transitioning to a consumption-led economy is referred to as "dual circulation" [6]. Policy Signals: Stimulus Push - Calls for a significant infrastructure investment push have been made to revive domestic demand, with suggestions that infrastructure projects could raise household incomes and shift growth focus from exports to internal demand [9]. Market Reactions - Mainland equity markets experienced selling pressure ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices declining slightly, although optimism regarding a potential trade deal remains [10]. - A successful trade deal could propel the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices towards their previous all-time highs, set in 2021 and 2015 respectively [11].

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on China reveals the anxiety and emotional reactions of the U.S. in response to the changing global power dynamics, highlighting a misjudgment of the current situation based on outdated perceptions of U.S. dominance [1] - Imposing a 100% tariff on China would effectively act as a self-imposed embargo on the world's most efficient manufacturing hub, leading to increased costs in the U.S. and exacerbating inflation issues [3] - The U.S. faces significant challenges regarding rare earth resources, which are crucial for high-end military technology and green energy industries, with China's manufacturing capabilities being essential for global supply chains [3][5] Group 2 - China has tightly linked its rare earth controls to the global manufacturing system, creating an economic form of "nuclear deterrence," making it difficult for multinational companies to forgo the Chinese market [5] - Major U.S. companies like Tesla, Apple, and Boeing are heavily reliant on the Chinese market, indicating that they are unlikely to abandon it despite the tensions [5] - The fear on Wall Street regarding the 100% tariff reflects deeper concerns about the future of the U.S. economy, as high tariffs would increase business costs and consumer burdens, particularly affecting middle and lower-income households [6] Group 3 - Historical experience suggests that equality and respect are essential for effective negotiation, and that the U.S. must adopt a pragmatic approach to discussions with China rather than relying on threats [8] - Trump's strategy of coercing China into unfavorable agreements through economic threats is likely to backfire, leading to greater economic losses for the U.S. and damaging its international credibility [8] - The approach of using American consumers and supply chains as leverage against China is unsustainable, and the U.S. may ultimately need to make concessions and return to negotiations with a more respectful attitude [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is recognized as an important regional organization that promotes security cooperation, economic development, and connectivity among member states [1][6]. Group 1: Organization Development - The SCO has expanded from 6 member states to 10, with more countries expressing interest in joining, indicating the organization's growing strength and future potential [10]. - China has played a significant role in leading the organization during its presidency, evidenced by over 100 official events held, including diverse meetings involving officials, scholars, and artists [15]. Group 2: Economic and Connectivity Initiatives - Connectivity is deemed crucial for all SCO member states, impacting trade, transportation, and the ease of movement for people [6]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative is highlighted as a key pillar for enhancing connectivity within the SCO region, with ongoing projects that may vary in scale from small to large infrastructure developments [10]. Group 3: Sustainable Development - Sustainable development is emphasized as an important area, with the connectivity agenda complementing sustainability efforts [6]. - China is recognized for creating opportunities in sustainable infrastructure, such as lithium batteries, solar panels, and electric vehicles, which are essential for developing countries [6]. Group 4: Future Expectations - There are high expectations for the upcoming SCO summit in Tianjin, with confidence in China's ability to lead the event successfully and achieve fruitful outcomes [19].

Group 1 - The current supply-side adjustment in China is more challenging than in 2016, with severe overcapacity resulting from production in recent years [1][3] - The rapid growth of the Chinese economy, even during global downturns, has led to significant overcapacity in sectors like electric vehicles, where profits are minimal [3][5] - The consumption issue in China is persistent, with a cultural tendency to save rather than spend, impacting the overall consumption-to-GDP ratio [5][6] Group 2 - To stimulate consumption, a shift from a planned economy mindset to a market-driven approach is necessary [5][6] - Despite perceived consumption weakness, certain consumer stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares are performing well, indicating underlying consumer activity [6][7] - The cyclical nature of consumption in China is closely tied to economic cycles, and new policies could alleviate downward pressure on consumption [6][7]