Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The company continues to lead in breeding costs, with significant cash flow improvements and a declining debt-to-asset ratio. The dividend payout ratio has notably increased, reflecting the company's value [1][7] - In the context of supply-side reforms and production capacity adjustments, the company is expected to benefit from its low-cost advantage, particularly in the face of industry challenges [7][1] - The company achieved a revenue of 76.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit of 10.5 billion yuan, up 1170% year-on-year [7][19] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 110.861 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -11%, followed by a 24% increase in 2024 [19][20] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 21.074 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.0 [19][20] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to reach 38.235 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [18][20] Performance Metrics - The company’s breeding costs have significantly improved, with the estimated cost of live pigs dropping from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.8 yuan/kg by July [7][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan, which represents 48% of its net profit [7][19] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [20][19]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.530 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 1,169.77% [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 17.351 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year [4] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.06%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points from the end of Q1 [5] Debt Management - The company aims to reduce its overall debt by 10 billion yuan this year, having already decreased its total debt by 5.6 billion yuan by the end of Q2, achieving over half of its target [5] Livestock Production - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 46.91 million pigs, including 38.39 million market pigs, 8.29 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs [5] - The number of breeding sows as of June 2025 was 3.431 million, with plans to reduce this to 3.3 million by year-end [7][8] - The cost of pig farming has decreased to approximately 11.8 yuan/kg as of July, with a target of an average cost of 12 yuan/kg for the year [5][14] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - The company slaughtered 11.4148 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.87%, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72% [6] - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, down to approximately 100 million yuan compared to the previous year [6] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.002 billion yuan, which accounts for 47.50% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][10] Industry Response and Strategy - The company is actively responding to national measures for capacity regulation in the pig industry, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing pig weights [7][8] - The company has halted sales of fattening pigs to secondary fattening customers to ensure all pigs are directed to slaughterhouses [8] Global Expansion - The company is advancing its global strategy through its Hong Kong stock issuance, with funds primarily allocated for global market expansion and R&D, not for domestic capacity increases [9] - An overseas business team has been established to explore international markets, leveraging existing technology and cost advantages [11][12] Cost Reduction Initiatives - The company has successfully reduced costs from 13.1 yuan/kg in January to 11.8 yuan/kg in July, with a target to further decrease to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [14] - Key cost reduction strategies include breeding improvements, health management, and employee training [14] Community Engagement - The company is enhancing its piglet sales and providing customized solutions for farmers, aiming to strengthen ties and share industry benefits [15]

证券代码：002714 证券简称：牧原股份 牧原食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-02 重要提示：参会人员名单由组织机构提供，由于调研对象数量较多，公司无法 保证参会单位、人员的完整性、准确性，提示投资者特别注意。 一、公司当前的降本进展和未来的降本路径？ 公司在 2024 年 12 月达成了年底 13 元/kg 的成本目标，之前提出的 600 元 降本空间已实现一半以上。但当下公司的养殖成绩、管理水平仍有较大进步空 间，2025 年公司的成本目标是全年平均 12 元/kg，主要有以下发力点： 第一是健康管理，过去的这个冬季，公司在非洲猪瘟防控上成效显著，为 今年整体生产情况的稳定奠定了基础。公司会持续加大对非瘟、蓝耳病等疾病 | 投资者关系活动类别 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | 年年度报告交流会）  其他（2024 | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | 平安基金叶芊、招商基金朱之光、中信保诚基金 | | | 吴一静、润晖投资李勇、贝莱德基金赵艺、南方 ...