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招商基金:建议投资者今年应中长期给予股市更多关注
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 09:49
Core Viewpoint - The recent market sentiment has improved significantly, with the index breaking through 3600 points, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing and enhancing market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The policy direction continues to support the market, with indicators such as margin trading and new fund issuance showing upward trends, suggesting an acceleration of incremental capital inflow [1] - Short-term market adjustments are expected due to technical needs, but the extent of these adjustments may be limited given the backdrop of increasing capital inflow [1] - The market is likely to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, with attention needed on volatility risks if sentiment continues to rise [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Domestic policy support and positive developments in industries are expected to sustain upward momentum in the equity market over the medium term [1] - Four main investment themes are recommended for the second half of the year: AI technology (TMT), new consumption (beauty, healthcare, outdoor sports), advanced manufacturing (automotive, smart driving, robotics, military), and resource products (gold, copper, rare earths) [1] - The dividend strategy remains valuable for low-entry positioning [1]
国泰海通晨报-20250612
Haitong Securities· 2025-06-12 02:49
Group 1: Tactical Asset Allocation - The tactical allocation view for Hong Kong stocks has been upgraded to overweight due to the ongoing enthusiasm for Chinese technology breakthroughs and emerging industries, with international funds increasingly favoring Hong Kong stocks [2][3] - The tactical allocation view for government bonds has been downgraded to neutral, as the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply limits the upward potential of interest rates [3][4] - The tactical allocation view for gold has been upgraded to overweight, as geopolitical tensions and economic recession fears make gold an attractive hedge against risks [3][4] Group 2: Export and Trade Industry Insights - In May, export growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, impacted by tariff shocks and high base effects from the previous year, but the resilience of foreign trade remains evident [5][6] - The recent US-China trade talks in London are expected to yield results in terms of tariff reductions and easing of technical restrictions, which could benefit companies with high exposure to the US market [6][7] - Cross-border e-commerce companies are entering a critical period of export acceleration to the US, driven by recent tariff reductions and upcoming sales events [7] Group 3: Automotive Industry Performance - In May, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 12.8% year-on-year, with a notable rise in new energy vehicle sales, which accounted for 52.6% of total sales [16][17] - The export of passenger vehicles, including new energy vehicles, showed significant growth, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 80.9% year-on-year [16][17] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting new energy vehicles and the ongoing recovery in consumer demand [16][17] Group 4: Technology and AI Developments - The report highlights Apple's strategy to enhance its AI ecosystem by allowing third-party developers to integrate its foundational models into their applications, strengthening its competitive position [17][18] - The introduction of new features in Apple's iOS, such as real-time translation and visual intelligence, is expected to enhance user experience and drive further adoption of its devices [18][19] Group 5: Industrial Software and Robotics - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial software sector, with projected revenues of 147.38 billion to 183.68 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by AI applications in the steel industry [24][25] - The development of humanoid robots and AI solutions is expected to accelerate automation in various industrial sectors, with significant market growth anticipated [25][26] Group 6: Smart Transportation Sector - The smart transportation industry is experiencing high growth driven by policy support and market demand, with significant contracts signed for digital transformation projects [27][28] - The company is expected to see a surge in orders as it capitalizes on opportunities in the smart transportation sector, with a strong pipeline of projects [29]