Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the highest increase in three years, against an expectation of 0.2%[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.5%[1] - The Australian economy growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a rate cut are maturing, suggesting a potential 0.25% cut in September[2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.6%, the lowest in two years, aligning with market expectations[2] - The RBA maintained inflation forecasts at 3% for this year and 2.9% for next year[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - Following the interest rate decision, the Australian dollar (AUD) briefly rose above 0.655 against the US dollar (USD) but later consolidated around 0.649[3] - The AUD is expected to fluctuate between 0.61 and 0.69 against the USD in the second half of the year[3] - If the AUD stabilizes above 0.645, it may present a buying opportunity[3]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

另外,美国第二季经济增速高于市场预期,虽然企业投资增速减慢,但美国第二季国内生 产总值（GDP）按季增长3%，优于市场预期的2.4%。而被联储局用来衡量国内通胀指标的个 人消费支出（PCE）物价指数小幅回暖。数据显示，美国6月PCE按年升幅由前值2.3%升至2. 6%，期内，核心PCE指数则按年上升2.8%，预期及前值均为上升2.7%。 减息预期升温 美汇短线走弱 ---- 2025 年 8 月 6 日大公報 https://www.takungpao.com/finance/236135/2025/0806/1110264.html 首页 > 财经 > 港股 > 正文 能言汇说/减息预期升温 美汇短线走弱 2025-08-06 05:01:54 大公报 字号 美国关税大限届满，总统特朗普签署行政命令,对等关税最低税率维持在10%不变,关税 区间介乎10%至41%不等。不过，美国对加拿大商品关税从25%提高至35%,除此之外,特朗 普还将墨西哥现行关税税率延长90天，为双方留出更多谈判时间。 通胀指标小幅反弹,美国联储局上周如预期按兵不动,将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25厘 至4.5厘不变，为连续第五次按兵不 ...

美国关税大限届满，总统特朗普签署行政命令,对等关税最低税率维持在10%不变,关税 区间介乎10%至41%不等。不过，美国对加拿大商品关税从25%提高至35%,除此之外,特朗 普还将墨西哥现行关税税率延长90天，为双方留出更多谈判时间。 另外,美国第二季经济增速高于市场预期,虽然企业投资增速减慢,但美国第二季国内生 产总值（GDP）按季增长3%，优于市场预期的2.4%。而被联储局用来衡量国内通胀指标的个 人消费支出（PCE）物价指数小幅回暖。数据显示，美国6月PCE按年升幅由前值2.3%升至2. 6%，期内，核心PCE指数则按年上升2.8%，预期及前值均为上升2.7%。 通胀指标小幅反弹,美国联储局上周如预期按兵不动,将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25厘 至4.5厘不变，为连续第五次按兵不动。议息声明显示美国经济不确定性仍然很高，劳动力市 场较稳定，通胀依然处于高位，故局方今次维持利率不变。不过，美国劳工统计局数据显示， 美国非农就业人数7月增加7.3万，远低于预期的11万。6月的数字由最初的14.7万大幅下修至 仅1.4万,而5月的数字也下修了12.5万。美国总统特朗普上周五宣布,已指示团队撤换劳工统 计局 ( ...

Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. fell short of expectations, indicating signs of cooling in the labor market, while the focus remains on long-term economic trends and sustainable growth themes such as AI, healthcare innovation, digital economy, and electrification [1] Group 1: Employment Data - July's job additions were significantly below market expectations, with previous months' data also revised downward, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - Despite cautious hiring by businesses, consumer and corporate balance sheets remain robust, supporting a degree of resilience in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The investment focus is on long-term economic trends and themes with sustainable growth potential, including artificial intelligence, healthcare innovation, digital economy development, and electrification [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Interest Rates - The current federal funds rate stands at 4.375%, with rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Taking interest rate risk at the front end of the yield curve may provide diversification benefits for investment portfolios and act as a buffer during stock or credit market volatility [1]

Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy, with contributions from primary industries, goods production, and services[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, as the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar weakens[3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights an increase in interest rate cut expectations, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and supportive statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut in July, positively impacting both US and Hong Kong stock markets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 23,832 points and reached a high of 24,229 points, closing at 24,177 points, marking a daily increase of 487 points or 2.06% [2] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market increased to 240.5 billion HKD, a rise of 21.1% compared to the previous day, with net inflows from the Northbound trading of 2.589 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Yunzhisheng (9678.HK) - Yunzhisheng is an AI solution provider focusing on conversational AI products, with business segments in smart living and smart healthcare, and has been active in the AI field since its establishment in 2012 [6] - The company reported revenue growth from approximately 601 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 939 million CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [6][7] - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced net losses, projected to be approximately 375 million CNY in 2022, 376 million CNY in 2023, and 454 million CNY in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges [6][9] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The AI solutions market in China is expected to grow from 42.2 billion CNY in 2019 to 180.4 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 33.7%, and projected to reach 1,174.9 billion CNY by 2030 [7] - The market is highly fragmented, with Yunzhisheng holding a market share of 0.6%, ranking fourth among AI solution providers in China based on 2024 revenue [7] Group 4: Competitive Advantages and Opportunities - The company possesses strong technical capabilities, with its self-developed "Shanhai" model featuring 60 billion parameters, recognized for its performance in the medical field [8] - Its applications span various scenarios, including smart homes and healthcare AI, serving 166 hospitals and enhancing efficiency in data entry and quality control [8] Group 5: Financial Position and Risks - Yunzhisheng has faced continuous losses over the past three years, with a cash reserve of 156 million CNY by the end of 2024, indicating significant financial pressure [9] - The company faces intense competition from major players like iFlytek, Baidu, and Alibaba, which may lead to price wars and further pressure on profit margins [9] Group 6: IPO Information - The IPO subscription period is from June 20 to June 25, 2025, with trading expected to commence on June 30, 2025 [10] - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including SenseTime Group and Zhenyi Asset, with a total subscription of 95.5 million HKD, representing 29.65%-36.84% of the international placement [11] Group 7: Fundraising and Utilization - The expected net fundraising amount is 177 million HKD, with approximately 45.6% allocated to enhancing R&D capabilities and 47.0% for investing in emerging business opportunities [12][13]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金（Managed Positions）在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反 映现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚 过去的周二（如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期）。 概要 上周美股出现股灾，金价（像之前担心那样）在流动性紧张的时候被获利。纵使这周美股或会暂 时回稳，但任何回稳/回升都可能是做空的机会。特别是在市场预期5月有近一半机率减息的期望 下，联储局如果维持偏鹰的立场会再触发大跌市——如果联储局不想办法"维持体面"，市场就会 帮联储"维持体面"。 市场原本是估计联储6月减息，但随着上周的美股暴跌，市场认为5月减息的几率增加至近半，就 连减息幅度也有所增加；最乐观的情况（目前机率尚低），已经有资金猜美国今年减息从多达8次 增加至10次。 预期减息的风险是在于联储——要是美国4、5月份的通胀居高不下 ，便是笔者早在疫情时便预测 联储总有一天要在保经济/就业和保美元二者之能选择一者，而我担心联储选择的会是后者。 即使 联储 ...