Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.60 billion yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year [5][13] - The revenue decline has narrowed quarter by quarter, with Q2 2025 revenue at 11.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year [5][13] - The company has implemented various measures to enhance operations, including the introduction of nearly 200 new brands and deepening membership operations, resulting in improved user conversion and repurchase rates [14][15] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 32.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [14] - The company expects revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 569.7 billion yuan, 626.2 billion yuan, and 689.0 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, 9.9%, and 10.0% respectively [15][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.24 billion yuan, 4.94 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -0.7%, +16.7%, and +12.9% respectively [15][16] Market Position - The company's market share in Hainan has increased by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year, despite the overall pressure on the duty-free sales market [13] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with some subsidiaries reporting positive operating profit growth, while others are still in a loss-making phase [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 69.29 and a sector rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [2][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's revenue decline is narrowing quarter-on-quarter, with a focus on the potential benefits from the Hainan duty-free policy and the growth of city channel sales [9][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 281.51 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit of RMB 26.00 billion, down 20.81% year-on-year [9][4]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's long-term performance due to its leading position in various channels and the gradual opening of city stores contributing to revenue growth [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 114.05 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.45%, and a net profit of RMB 6.62 billion, down 32.21% year-on-year [9][4]. - The company’s market share in Hainan's duty-free shopping has increased, with Hainan expected to open its borders in December 2025, which may boost tourist numbers [9][6]. Revenue Projections - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.09, RMB 2.60, and RMB 2.87, respectively, with the current price corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 33.1, 26.6, and 24.1 times [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of 2.7% growth in 2025, followed by 8.3% and 6.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [8][9]. Market Position - The company is expanding its city duty-free stores, with new openings in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenue [9][6]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantage in the Hainan duty-free market, supported by favorable government policies and an expanding product range [9][6].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 24 年 月 日 中国中免（601888.SH） 口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量 事件：1）3 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 564.74 亿元/同比 -16.38%，归母净利润 42.67 亿元/同比-36.44%，扣非归母净利润 41.44 亿元/同比- 37.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 134.53 亿元/同比-19.46%，归母净利润 3.48 亿 元/同比-76.93%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元/同比-81.42%。2）发布 2024 年度利润 分配方案，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 10.5 元，共计 21.7 亿元，占据归母净利润 50.91%。 消费意愿阶段趋缓，离岛免税显著承压，口岸免税利润有所优化。2024 年海南接待游 客总人数 9721 万人次/同比+8.0%，全年离岛免税购物金额 309.4 亿元/同比-29.3%。 其中实际购物人次 568.3 万人次/同比-15.9%，据计算人均消费为 5444 元/同比- 15.9%。2024 全年公司实现营业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies at ports and anticipates growth in city duty-free sales [1][4] - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit to 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 28.54%, attributed to declining sales and increased promotional efforts [2] Market Dynamics - The company has seen a steady increase in its share of the duty-free market in Hainan, with a 2 percentage point increase in 2024 [3] - The company successfully won bids for duty-free operations at 10 airports, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free policies and increased international flight volumes [3] - The city duty-free stores are expected to contribute to growth, with new store openings planned in major cities [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 58.03 billion yuan, 63.55 billion yuan, and 68.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.50 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan [4][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.18 yuan, 2.38 yuan, and 2.55 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant pressure in 2024, with revenue of RMB 56.474 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of RMB 4.267 billion, down 36.44% year-on-year. The report anticipates growth from the recovery of port stores and the gradual establishment of city stores [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's increasing market share in the offshore channel, despite a decline in duty-free sales. The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and ongoing property developments in the region [9]. - The international flight recovery has led to substantial growth in port duty-free sales, with the company's domestic duty-free store sales nearly doubling [9]. - The company is actively expanding its city duty-free operations, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 60.533 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to be RMB 4.716 billion, with a growth rate of 10.5% [8][11]. - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 2.28 for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26.5, 22.3, and 19.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is projected at RMB 8.154 billion, with a growth rate of 24.5% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 due to a decline in traffic, particularly in Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping. However, it is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of city duty-free policies, which could stimulate domestic consumption [3][6]. - The company's market position remains strong, with an increase in market share despite the overall decline in Hainan's duty-free shopping amounts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 19.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% year-over-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38% year-over-year, and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-over-year. The gross margin is projected to be 32.0%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping amounted to 30.9 billion yuan, a decline of 29.3% year-over-year, with the number of shoppers decreasing by 15.9% [2]. - The company has seen a solidified market position, with a market share increase of nearly 2 percentage points despite the overall market decline [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the new city duty-free policies implemented in October 2024, which are likely to enhance domestic consumption and facilitate the return of overseas shopping demand [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 59 billion yuan, 63.5 billion yuan, and 69.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.7 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan [3][5].