Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing U.S. tariff war, highlighting the potential increase in overall tariff rates and the characteristics of trade agreements, as well as the impacts of existing tariffs on imports and inflation. Group 1: New Tariffs - The new reciprocal tariffs effective from August 7 will impose a minimum of 10% on trade deficit countries and 15% on trade surplus countries [5][19] - The overall U.S. tariff rate may exceed 15%, with estimates suggesting it could rise to 17.1% or even 21.2% if key industry tariffs are implemented [6][22] - The implementation of new tariffs may narrow the tariff rate gap between China and other countries, potentially reducing the risk of export share transfer for China [24] Group 2: Characteristics of Trade Agreements - Direct investment and procurement agreements can lead to lower tariffs and reductions in key industry tariffs, with countries like Japan, the EU, and South Korea benefiting from lower rates [27][29] - Current trade agreements lack formal legal texts, leading to uncertainty regarding their execution and effectiveness [31][32] Group 3: Impact of Existing Tariffs - The increase in tariff rates by 1% has resulted in a 2.8% decline in U.S. import growth, with projections indicating a potential drop to -10.5% in the second half of the year [9][35] - Tariff costs are primarily borne by U.S. importers, with estimates suggesting that 40% to 74% of the tariff price increases have already been reflected in U.S. CPI [10][40] - The surge in imports observed in April appears to have ended, with June showing signs of a demand pullback [11][43] - As of May, approximately 61.4% of Chinese goods still maintain a price advantage despite the tariffs, although this is a decline from 76.1% in 2024 [10][55]

Group 1: Macro Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on export products, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power during tariff shocks, leading to a positive cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [4] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through transshipment trade. High-dependency products exhibit weak overseas substitution effects, indicating a focus on related importers' replenishment needs [4] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand, rising storage prices, and opportunities for domestic substitution are expected to boost the fundamentals of the Hong Kong semiconductor sector. Recommended stocks include SMIC, benefiting from domestic AI demand, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which is gaining more domestic customer orders due to the trend of local production [9] Group 3: Company Insights - Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, is expanding its overseas footprint and is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 101 million to 123 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, with an EPS forecast of 0.22 to 0.27 CNY [14] - Shengyi Technology is projected to experience rapid growth driven by AI-related demand, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 raised to 2.628 billion, 3.280 billion, and 4.044 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [38] - Chow Tai Fook's FY2025 revenue is reported at 89.656 billion HKD, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, but the company is expected to benefit from its transformation strategy, with profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted upwards [42]