核心观点 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信SuperSummerSnow） 报告摘要 关税战的十点观察 （一）新增关税将有多少？ 1 、新版对等关税于 8 月 7 日生效，逆差经济体 10% ，顺差经济体最低 15% 。 7 月 31 日，特朗普签署行政令，调整互惠对等关税，值得注意的是： 1 ） 8 月 7 日生效 。 10 月 5 日之前到港清关的，属于在途货物，仍适用旧版关税。 2 ） 税率水平从 10%~41% 不等。对美贸易逆差经济体关税率 10% ，如巴西 和英国，对美贸易顺差经济体最低税率 15% （欧盟、日本、韩国）。注意三个细节（详见正文）。 3 ） 墨西哥、加拿大、中国不在此次调整中。 关于美国关税战的三维度中期观察结果： 一、新增关税将有几何？ 1 ）新版对等关税下限较初版有所抬升，再叠加未来潜在的 232 行业关税，或导致美国整体关税率突破 15% （ 6 月有效关税率仅 8.9% ）。 2 ）税率存在差异化定价，传统西方盟友如欧盟、日本低于东南亚国家。 3 ）新版对等关税或导致中国与其他国家关税率差收 ...

Group 1: Macro Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on export products, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power during tariff shocks, leading to a positive cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [4] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through transshipment trade. High-dependency products exhibit weak overseas substitution effects, indicating a focus on related importers' replenishment needs [4] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand, rising storage prices, and opportunities for domestic substitution are expected to boost the fundamentals of the Hong Kong semiconductor sector. Recommended stocks include SMIC, benefiting from domestic AI demand, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which is gaining more domestic customer orders due to the trend of local production [9] Group 3: Company Insights - Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, is expanding its overseas footprint and is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 101 million to 123 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, with an EPS forecast of 0.22 to 0.27 CNY [14] - Shengyi Technology is projected to experience rapid growth driven by AI-related demand, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 raised to 2.628 billion, 3.280 billion, and 4.044 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [38] - Chow Tai Fook's FY2025 revenue is reported at 89.656 billion HKD, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, but the company is expected to benefit from its transformation strategy, with profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted upwards [42]