为分析未来供需走势，该行自下而上测算了全球VC添加剂的需求情况，在一定的背景&假设下该行得 出如下判断：1）动力稳增长，2026年全球动力电池总出货量有望达到1447GWh，增速稳定在20%左 右。2）国内外需求共振，储能需求有望持续超预期。该行预计2026年全球储能电池出货量将同比增长 62%至822GWh。3）整体看2026年锂电池市场（动力+储能+消费）规模将扩大31%，全市场扩容将直接 带动电解液添加剂市场规模扩大，此为"需求增长一击"。4）结构上由于储能增速更快，同时海外动力 磷酸铁锂占比不断提升，叠加技术升级带来添加比例提升，最终2026年VC需求有望实现超64%需求增 速，这即是结构带来的"需求增长双击"。FEC则主要受益于未来快充技术和硅基负极技术的进一步推 广，除了3C锂电池带来的成长外，半固态电池/固态电池的趋势同样利好FEC需求增长，该行预计 FEC2026年需求增速将达到29.5%。 供给侧：扩产有限，高负荷生产制约瓶颈 自2022年初至今添加剂行业已经历三年+的下行，非理性扩产使行业发生"内卷式"竞争价格快速下滑， 2024年上市公司相关业务均进入亏现金状态，目前看龙头企业现金储备均 ...

风险提示：需求不及预期、新技术发展过快导致产品失去市场、原材料价格上涨等的风险。 VC(碳酸亚乙烯酯)于11月中旬接力六氟磷酸锂迎来快速上涨，截至2025年11月28日平均价格23.5万元/ 吨，较底部已上涨408%，最高27万元/吨;同时FEC平均价来到5.4万元/吨，较底部已上涨30%。本次VC 等添加剂上涨主要系短期下游排产超预期快速上行,库存被动消耗,供不应求。该行测算了添加剂折算到 电芯全成本占比不到1%，价格敏感性极低，结合历史价格走势(VC最高47.5万元/吨)，考虑六氟磷酸锂 等原料受碳酸锂波动，以VC为代表的添加剂实际弹性空间更大。 自2022年初至今添加剂行业已经历三年+的下行，非理性扩产使行业发生"内卷式"竞争价格快速下 滑,2024年上市公司相关业务均进入亏现金状态，目前看龙头企业现金储备均已下滑至历史低点。在目 前盈利状态以及资本基础上，企业难再有扩产意愿，行业更趋于理性，同时低价格带加速行业落后产能 出清。叠加事件扰动加剧价格波动，该行认为下游电解液企业的备货供应需求或形成更强的抢购补库存 需求，因此价格弹性空间有望更大。统计行业供需后该行认为2026年行业VC产能缺口将达到-1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1,947.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.78 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][18] - In Q1-Q3 2025, 50.0% of the 30 chemical sub-industries reported year-on-year growth, increasing to 56.7% in Q3 2025 [2][28] - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the industry, with capital expenditures declining by 16.9% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicating a slowdown in expansion cycles [2][18] Summary by Sections Overall Operations - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase with a profit growth rate surpassing revenue growth [18] - The gross profit margin for the industry was 16.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18] - The report notes a continued downturn in the domestic real estate market and a slow recovery in consumption [2][18] Key Sub-Industries - **Fluorochemical**: Revenue reached 32.53 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and net profit up 155.6% [9][41] - **Phosphate Chemical**: Revenue was 82.38 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.0% to 7.55 billion yuan [49][50] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 13.1% to 20.77 billion yuan, with net profit rising 57.6% to 9.44 billion yuan [9] - **Pesticides**: Revenue reached 124.65 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with net profit increasing by 131.2% to 6.38 billion yuan [9] - **Soda Ash**: Revenue fell by 15.7% to 30.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 71.5% to 0.99 billion yuan [9] - **Polyurethane**: Revenue decreased by 1.9% to 163.35 billion yuan, with net profit down 16.5% to 9.51 billion yuan [9] - **Titanium Dioxide**: Revenue was 32.92 billion yuan, down 4.2%, with net profit down 46.3% to 1.74 billion yuan [9] - **Polyester Filament**: Revenue decreased by 5.0% to 118.94 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 38.0% to 2.42 billion yuan [9] - **Additives**: Revenue grew by 3.8% to 89.06 billion yuan, with net profit up 30.0% to 12.35 billion yuan [9] - **Civil Explosives**: Revenue increased by 16.6% to 48.83 billion yuan, with net profit up 8.2% to 3.60 billion yuan [9] - **Tires**: Revenue grew by 10.7% to 119.98 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 17.3% to 9.89 billion yuan [9] - **Electronic Chemicals**: Revenue reached 52.97 billion yuan, up 13.1%, with net profit increasing by 22.4% to 6.05 billion yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical recovery and potential growth in various sub-industries [10][39]

Core Viewpoint - The price of VC additives has been declining significantly, reaching a low of 44,000 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, leading to severe losses for manufacturers and prompting smaller companies to halt production. Larger companies, supported by strong financial backing and economies of scale, maintain higher operating rates despite long-term losses. The industry recognizes that maintaining stable prices is essential for sustainable development in the context of widespread losses and government advocacy against excessive competition [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, VC demand increased by 6% month-on-month, while the supply growth was less than the demand increase, resulting in a price uptick for VC. Major manufacturers such as Gengyuan, Huasheng, Huayi, and Fuxiang Pharmaceutical have a strong willingness to raise prices, contributing to the price stability of VC [1][2]. - The nominal production capacity in the market is 9,825 tons per month, with effective capacity at 7,500 tons per month. In September, the market supply was 5,800 tons, and demand was 5,880 tons, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand. Manufacturers are rationally controlling their operating rates to maintain this balance [4]. - It is expected that both supply and demand will increase in October, keeping VC prices stable. However, a slight decrease in market demand is anticipated in December, which may lead to a minor price drop due to supply and demand dynamics. Overall, the VC market has sufficient capacity, and there is no current supply shortage due to insufficient production capacity [5].